SIACOIN Roadmap && How To Make A Roadmap For Anything! :)The following analysis attempts to illustrate a reliable road map for Siacoin. I anticipate that this road map will hold true for months and perhaps years to come. Let's dig in.
There is a lot of information on the chart to parse for people not familiar with Fibonacci Retracements and Pitchforks. Believe it or not, this chart was created with only the following:
- 1D candlestick chart
- 2 Schiff Pitchforks
- 2 Fibonacci Retracements
(There's a link at the bottom that will get you high quality images of me building all of this. Download them so you don't have to squint your eyes and scroll for a million years.)
Let me walk you through this. Use your imagination with me and let's peel back all of the layers until we're left with the grey background.
We start with a grey background, we want to clear our minds. No horizontal and vertical helpers to distract us.
Let's add the candlesticks to the chart. We use candlesticks because they show the market's psychology towards Siacoin and Bitcoin, every single day. We use a 1D chart because we don't want to pick everyone's noses and see what they think from minute to hour. A 1D chart gathers everyone's feelings - hopes, greed, and fear - and represents the collective psychology of all players into one singular candle stick. A new day starts and the 1D candle opens at the previous day's close. We observe the highs and lows, and finally see what everyone's collective sentiment has settled on at the end of the day. This is represented across the entire history we're looking at. But what do see? Do we zoom in to look at every candlestick pattern? Not right now. This is a Road Map. We're zooming out and looking at everything that was, to find the overarching patterns in what the market thinks about Siacoin. We use this map to anticipate when to sell to the greedy, and when to buy from the fearful. Let's continue.
We have candlesticks, let's find the MAJOR support and resistance areas. These are illustrated as thick horizontal lines. You can bet money on the fact that these levels matter, a lot! These are the levels where people will take profits. The price is at 99, below the bottom Fibonacci resistance at 116. Do not sell here unless you're a pro. If you haven't studied trading for thousands of hours and you want to be smart and sell Siacoin at 116, you're going to become depressed. If you don't know what you're doing, HODL until at least 300-350; yes Siacoin will make it to 300-350 easily. Just wait. Sit on your hands if you have to. Money isn't made by trading, it's made by waiting. Look at how price reacts at these critical levels. There's rapid and short-lived movement here. These are good places to have sell orders. These Fibonacci levels are created taking into account the highest price of Siacoin to date and relating it to the lowest. These are literally the fundamental, psychological levels of support and resistance. Expect that in the coming years, as Sia breaks out from these level and maintains higher prices, these levels will begin acting as support. Expect this. The point: Having sell orders at these Fibonacci levels is a good idea.
A good profit-taking strategy would be as follows:
- 50%
- 30%
- 20%
Let's say your big sell target is 350, a reasonable number. Don't go selling all of your Siacoin here. Why do it? We're not geniuses. Anyways the price will definitely go higher, but how much higher? Why not lock in profits, take a sizable chunk of our profits off the table and into our pockets. We've taken 50% profits and the market moves up higher! Let's say the price gets to 400-450 and we want to sell here. Sell everything? No! Sell 30%, maybe the price goes higher, but you want to lock in profits and sell to the greedy before the price comes tumbling down. You have 20% of your Siacoin left, the price is still climbing. Let's say it gets to 500-550... you see that the market is getting tired. It looks like the bulls are losing their breath. The hopeful, euphoric, high chasing fools will buy here, you will sell your last 20% to them. And you have 0% Siacoin left.
So you sold something, maybe you only got to selling 50% at 350 and the market reversed, what now? Well look at the Fibonacci levels. You see the thinner levels? Those have been created not by using the entire market's history to get the Grand Scheme of Things support & resistance levels, they were made by taking into account the next largest swing levels, to get more surgical, specific support/resistance levels. See for yourself. Look at how price reacts at these Fibonacci levels. They tend to hold as support/resistance for some time before finally moving up/down to another Fibonacci level. You've sold 50% and the price moves down, to another Fibonacci level, and you see that there is a flurry of more buyers eager to get in on that previous high: Do you want to invest all of your 50% profit into backing back? You could do that, or withdraw the profits and buy back what you started with. You're buying on the move towards the next high up... just think about it. 50%, 30%, 20%. And you don't have to sell it all in one Hail Mary. Set sell orders. Say 350 is your target for selling 50% of your Siacoin. Why not set sell orders for 10% at 330-340-350-360-370? It's smart. You give yourself a chance to lock in profits at various levels, maybe you save yourself if the market retraces before your Grand Target, or maybe the fervour of buying exceeds all good reason, you could profit from that too.
Fine, we have an idea about using Fibonacci Retracements as support and resistance levels because we've looked at the chart and it makes sense, right? Good. Those are the horizontal levels... you get the same effect using a Schiff Pitchfork on the entire history, macro view, just like the macro Fib levels give you the ultimate sell targets, this gives you... something amazing. Let's talk about it.
Imagination time again. Remember we stripped everything away - we started with grey and added the horizontal Fibonacci Retracements. So we have grey, candles, horizontal lines. Now we add the right-down sloping Schiff Pitchfork with rainbow colours. Look at it, observe how the market moves here. Doesn't this look like support and resistance? Yes it does, but what's mind-blowing about it is that a break out from one level to the next could provide a good buy opportunity, and if that breakout happens to occur at the intersection with a Fibonacci level, then you have additional confirmation. Anyways, you'll learn more about that by looking at the charts. The colours though... this will blow your mind...
Look at the bottom left colour, the blue zone, think of this blue zone as the ideal magical place to buy, now look up top, to Siacoin's highest prices, you see the blue zone there? Another magical place to sell. Well consider the rainbow from that perspective, the blue zones are the extremes. The magical place to buy is at the bottom blue and the magical place to sell is at the top blue. Then there are gradients in between - lighter blue, turquoise, green, yellow, and red. Look at the red in the center. You see how there's a yellow line there, right in the center cutting the red in half? That's the Pitchfork center line. You have to study Pitchforks. They're amazing. The thing about Pitchforks is this... well first...
You're looking at the Pitchfork, yellow center line. Price will return to this point 80% of the time. Read about it. Download and study this file: the_forktrading-blueprint.pdf . You have to register to the ForkTrading website to get it. Do it. Download it. Study it. Profit. So the center line, look at the chart. When the price gets to the center line one of three things will happen, the price will accelerate through at high volume, it will retrace from there, or it will consolidate there. Look at Siacoin cutting through it time and time and time again, zooming up and down, using it as support and resistance. The more you can buy below in blue or below the center line, the more profitable the trade can be. Do you see how Siacoin broke above the center line, ending the downtrend and starting a long period of accumulation? People accumulate, the price goes up to the center line, it acts as resistance, and retrace. Rinse repeat. Well we're out of there, toward the end of the red, and where are we now? Just below the most significant, thick horizontal Fibonacci level at 116. Here's the thing, Bitcoin is at its bottom. Big money is manipulating the market and shaking the money tree to shake out the last cheap Bitcoin from the frightened and uneducated. This is the bottom. Could we get to 5000? Sure why not, but I don't think so - anyways that's another chart and another explanation. Siacoin keeps steadily climbing towards that Fibonacci level and when it does, what?
Next step: let's add one more layer, ready? So you see how awesome the macro, Big Picture Pitchfork is? You make those by connecting any swings high/low to get a micro view of action, so you can see price channels here and now, in this month, in these days. That yellow line shooting to the upper right is that new Pitchfork center line. It's an Original Pitchfork. I left the center line and removed the other levels. Why? Because after we break 116 Fib and get up to the intersection of 157 Fib and the Pitchfork center line what do you support is going to happen? At that bottom yellow circle? Let me tell you, if price breaks 157 these on volume hold onto your cowboy hate because... you see that yellow circle above? What is it? It's the extremity of the blue Pitchfork area (remember the bottom one?), the magical place to sell, and it's right below what? The 384 major Fibonacci resistance level. Things this might be the ideal place to sell that 50%. Well expletive yeah. Sad us, maybe the price doesn't zoom through the bottom Pitchfork center line, what happens? Retrace. Where to? Probably 116 major Fib. Think that might be a good place to buy? You betcha. Did you sell when the price started to retrace below the Pitchfork center line and 157 Fib? Well why the Hell not what have I been saying! Observe price action where Pitchforks and Fibonacci levels intersect! And while you're at it observe whole numbers like 150 and 200. People find them to be significant and want to either buy or sell at those nice round numbers. Pay attention. Pay. Attention.
What's left to explore on the chart? Let's see... nah that's pretty good. I've just about covered all the basics... aside from the most important, the most fundamental thing: candlesticks! If you don't know candlestick patterns turn off your computer. Go read a book, ride a bike, go away, lol. No seriously candlesticks are the very foundation of trading. Research Steve Nison. He's God. Study Steve Nison. Again: Study. Steve. Nison. He has a magical seminar called Steve Nison - Candle Charting Collection . Get creative. Take the course. Complete volumes 1-4. COMPLETE THEM. COM-PLETE. THEM. You cannot be a master trader without taking that course. Then what? You took it once? Great, you understand candlesticks. Take the course again. Yes, take volumes 1-4 AGAIN. You learned candlesticks before and learned a Hell of a lot about identifying support and resistance levels, the best places to buy and sell, but it was too much information for you to learn everything. The first time you learn how to read candlesticks. The second time around you master candlestick analysis and know when to buy and when to sell. Do you want to know when to buy and when to sell? Do you want to stop buying at the top and selling at the bottom? Then take the damned course, TWICE!
Anything else? Hmm... we unwind the chart layer by layer and we get the grey background and we shut down the tab and the browser and the computer and what do we have? You.
Study trading. Become a better trader. This is not a game. This is a job. Crypto is the magical place where nobodies and become millionaires. If you're in it to get rich, you need to study. I've given you a lot, really. I've studied for thousands and thousands of hours, every single day over the course of a year. Anyways. I hope this helped you out. Oh yeah and one more thing...
You can apply this technique to any single market and create a Road Map for anything. Study Hard and have fun. Take care of the people around you. Remember what and who is really important to you and find balance and inner peace. See ya.
Oh yeah, here's a link to me building this chart over various stages. Download the images and study. Enjoy!
photos.google.com
