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AudUsd- Navigating its Downtrend: Where's the Bottom?Aud is very weak and the recent drop is not only on the back of USD strength... After the new failed attempt to stay above 0.68 important figure back in July, the pair started to drop hard and in this descent cleared some very important levels that should have provided support: 0.66 and 0.65 For more than a month now the pair is trading in a 150 pips range, but the break down looks imminent at this moment. Looking at the posted chart we see how strong the 0.65 ceiling is and for AUD to reverse back up would take a lot of fundamental reasons that simply are not there. In conclusion, any rallies above 0.64 should be sold and swing traders could target 0.6250.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
9
SPX to continue down?As I explained last week, there is a high chance for SP500 to drop to important 4250-4275 zone support. On Friday the index dropped under the short-term trend line and, after consolidation on Monday and Tuesday, yesterday we had a strong drop. The overall picture is pretty bearish at this point and another 150 points drop becomes very probable. In conclusion, as long as the index stays under 4500, traders could look to sell rallies in search of a good risk: reward.
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
16
Bears in control: The ongoing battle for GoldIn yesterday's post, I wrote that XauUsd is in no man's land as long as the price stays between 1915 and 1930, and, although at the time of writing this is still the case, the recent price action gives us some hints for the future move. As we can see from the chart, after the low at 1885, XauUsd reversed strongly and a rise to 1950 followed. However, after the correction to 1900, the price couldn't manage to reach a new high and dropped again to the important 1915 zone. The new attempt from bulls was rejected twice in 1930 on Friday (BTW, this made me quit my long trade yesterday) and yesterday twice more. All this suggests bears took total control and this will be the case as long as the price stays under 1930. Technically, the 1910-1915 zone is confluence support, and for down acceleration, a break of this zone is needed. In such an instance I expect a drop under 1900 to 1885 for the first leg down, but, in the medium term, a new drop under 1900 could lead to a test of major support at the 1850 zone. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
23
EurUsd- Bears should start being carefulEurUsd has been dropping pretty much contained in a channel for more than two months now and, as expected and stated in a few past posts, is approaching the 1.05 crucial zone. Although, in the long term, my bias remains bearish for the pair, at this moment, in my opinion, bears should start being careful and a reversal is looming. Looking at the posted chart we can see that 1.05-1.0550 acted as support at the beginning of the year and again in March, and for a break under a strong catalyst is needed. With all fundamentals already priced in, I don't see a drop under this zone, and the pair could start trading in a range. That being said, in my opinion, short trades from this level are not worth the risk, and is better for traders to wait for reversal signs and trade an up correction towards 1.08. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
by Mihai_Iacob
9
EurAud with my 1.63 target in sightIn my 20 September post, I wrote that EurAud could correct further and eventually reach 1.63 important support zone. Indeed, after a test of the indicated resistance at that moment, the pair dropped again to new support at 1.6450-1.6470 zone. Yesterday the rally was met once again with selling power shy under 1.66 and now we are again at support. All recent price action suggests down continuation and I expect a break under 1.6450 support. In this case, my 1.63 target is the most obvious one and also the most probable.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
7
WTI- The ideal price to buy for 100 targetThe month of September came with a very important break for WTI Oil, the rise above 85 figure, a price that kept WTI in a range since December last year. As was usually the case, after the break, the price accelerated to the upside and to the next important 92.50-93.00 zone resistance. Looking at the posted chart we can see that since July, the trend for Oil is strongly up and a continuation is to be expected. At this moment, the price is in a correction and this drop could offer traders a good opportunity to join the trend at better prices. Technically, the old congestion under 87 and above 85 (yellow square) should offer support and a good zone to buy. A reversal from this zone and back to 93 could lead to a break above the recent high and in this case, the road is clear for a test of 100 important psychological level. The structure is strongly bullish as long as the price is above the old resistance at 83
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by Mihai_Iacob
Gold- Bigger picture for a 500 pips tradeI'm a swing trader and, in the case of XauUsd trading, I usually look for 3-400 pips, or even more, as targets. At this moment, for such a trade, things are unclear and Gold is stuck in no man's land with each direction being possible. However, looking at the bigger picture, we can see that clarification for future direction is pretty easy to spot and this could bring 500 pips profit. So let's take a look at both scenarios, with confirmation and targets. 1. Bearish scenario: Since the beginning of May, Gold has traded downwards, with a clear lower top at 1980, followed by a newly formed resistance around 1950, which was confirmed with a Pin Bar candle last week. Confirmation for the bearish scenario comes with a break under the 1915 zone, in which instance, there is a very high probability for a drop to 1885 (300 pips) but, in my opinion, such a move will lead eventually to a dive, and test of 1855 important support (600 pips) 2. Bullish scenario: In mid-August, XauUsd made a low at 1885, and a strong 600 pips leg-up followed. The drop from the falling trend line hasn't made a new low and the price reversed from 1900 both psychological and horizontal support given by June and July's lows, and this could very well be a higher low. Here we also need confirmation and this comes with a break above the 1930 zone. In conclusion, at this moment I'm out of the market and, Gold under 1915 would make me bearish and Gold above 1930 bullish. Best of luck and have a great trading week! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mihai_Iacob
17
GbpUsd- Any rally should be soldGbp is very weak and this is visible with all its counterparts and, in the case of USD, British Pound has lost almost 1k pips since mid-July, smashing all my down targets. Last week Cable also dropped under May's low and nothing seems to stop it. Technically, at this moment, 1.24 is resistance, but in my opinion, it will not retest (as weak as it is) That being said, rallies above 1.234 should be sold and, considering a stop above 1.24 we easily could achieve a 1:2 risk: rewards is we target the 1.2 congestion zone and psychological level. 1.18 the technical target and medium-term trader could also focus on this.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
23
Gold- An important close for the weekIf you've been following my XauUsd analyses this week, you'll know that I'm bullish and anticipating a rise in Gold to 1980 in the medium term. While this outlook remains unchanged, recent price action this week has prompted some noteworthy observations: As depicted on the chart, Gold began the week on an optimistic note but started to decline after touching the 1950 resistance zone. Yesterday, the price also reached the lower boundary of the range, at the 1915 zone, which serves as horizontal support. As of the current moment, it's trading at 1927, roughly in the middle of this range, leaving room for various possibilities. As the title suggests, this week's closing is of great significance. If the bulls manage to regain control today and drive the price back above 1940, the likelihood of a break above 1950 becomes quite high, which would expose my 1980 target as a probable outcome. Conversely, a weekly close below 1915 or in close proximity to that level would exert downward pressure on the price. In such a scenario, we could anticipate a drop below 1900, heading towards the 1885 support level in the coming week. To sum it up, my bullish bias remains unchanged, but, as I've explained, further confirmation hinges on the price staying above 1940. Best of luck and happy trading! Mihai Iacob
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
29
Silver- Price could rise to 24.50 (more than 1k pips)In my 13 September analysis on Silver, I said that the price could lose support and drop to the next important one at 22.30. The next day, the market did exactly this and touched the indicated zone. However, this was just liquidity grabbing with XagUsd quickly rising back above the 23 figure on 15 Sept. Just like XauUsd, Silver also reversed yesterday from the new top, leaving a Pin Bar on our chart, nevertheless, the structure remains strongly bullish, suggesting continuation. In conclusion, dips should be bought with a 24.50 target.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
14
Nas100- Drop under 14k after correction?On 13 September I wrote that Nas100 could lose trend line support and, as long as the 15500 zone is intact as resistance, there is a high chance for the index to drop to 14700-14800 zone support. As we can see from the chart, after a new test of the resistance zone on 15 September, the index started to drop again and, two days ago we had a strong break under the trend line and a dive directly to horizontal support. At this moment, a correction is probable, but, in my opinion, this rise will be short-lived and should be used as an opportunity for short trades. In conclusion, rallies above 15k should be sold and the medium-term target for such a trade could be in the 14k zone and slightly under.
VANTAGE:NAS100Short
by Mihai_Iacob
9
Platinum- New test of 1k zone?Since the beginning of July, Platinum has been trading in a 100 USD range, between 900 and 1000 USD per ounce (more or less). The start of September found the price at the bottom of this range and the price has started to rise again. A first leg up followed and after XptUsd reached 950, a correction started. Yesterday we had a reversal in price from interim support around 927 and a new leg up could be next. Bulls are favored as long as the price is above yesterday's low in terms of daily close and, swing traders who target the upper boundary of the race could achieve an impressive 1:3 risk: reward. As in the case of Silver and Gold, I'm also bullish on Platinum.
OANDA:XPTUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
Gold remains bullish in spite yesterday's reversalIn terms of daily closing, yesterday was an uneventful day for Gold. After an initial rise, bulls were unable to hold gains and at the end of New York session, XauUsd reversed to the day's open. Although we have this reversal from interim 1950 zone resistance, the structure remains bullish and I expect gains at this end of the week. Technically, bulls need to keep the price above 1915 and preferably above the 1923-1924 zone. In conclusion, in spite of yesterday's reversal, I'm looking to buy on dips with a moderate target around 1950. As explained in my past analyses, a break above 1950 would expose 1980.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
9
DXY looks tiredI've been bullish DXY since the end of July after we had the confirmation that the break down was a false one and indicated the 105.50 zone as the potential target in the medium term. The target was hit last week and now the index is consolidating and a correction could follow. However, the trend remains up and a new spike above the recent high is possible. Confirmation for a drop comes with a break under the rising wedge support in which case 104.50 could be bears' target.
TVC:DXY
by Mihai_Iacob
20
Gold- Will FED be the trigger for new leg up?Yesterday was a very quiet day for Gold, with the price fluctuating in a tight range. With FED expected to make no move on rates, the more important is the press conference after, which could trigger a new rise for Gold. Technically, things have been unchanged since yesterday, with a high probability of a bottom in place. As explained yesterday, a clear break above the 1935 zone would expose the 1980 and 1953 recent high as interim resistance. I remain bullish as long as the 1910-1915 zone is intact.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
XAUUSD Outlook 18/9/23 reversals incoming Whats up gold gang! Im back from my trip to Prague .. what a beautiful city!! Quick one for you i know you've been waiting!! Im bullish on the day currently as price is moving slowly due to fomc week and no news today Price has reacted nicely from the level there and is moving up to fill the range. Im still bearish on the HTF (structure is still in place with higher lows lower lows) so im looking for price to move up here before selling off at the reversal area marked on the chart OHLC methodology alternatively .. a strong close and retest will be nice sells there to fill the range Looking forward to getting back into it gang .. lets go!! follow along if you're not already .. its gonna be a great week your mate Tommy XAU
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
2
EurAud- Top in place?Recently, EurAud reached 1.7 figure, and after some consolidation in that zone, the pair started to drop. This drop stopped around 1.6650 and although we have 3 reversals from this horizontal level, EurAud has started to print lower highs on our chart. This could be an indication that more losses could come and the pair could drop under this support. A break under this level could accelerate losses toward important 1.63 support On the other hand, a break back above 1.68 would put the recent 1.7 high in focus
by Mihai_Iacob
14
Nas100 could lose supportSo far, this year has been an incredible one for Nas100, with the index rising more than 50%. However, after the mid-July top, Nas100 has started to roll back down and we already have 4 touches of support zones in only 6 weeks. As we know, the more a support or resistance is touched the weaker it becomes, and, in my opinion, we are close to a down break. A daily close under 15100 could be considered a valid break and, in this instance, correction from the top could continue with around 1k points as a target. Nas100 back above 15600 would negate this bearish scenario
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by Mihai_Iacob
5