UsdJpy could drop and test 145 supportYesterday, UsdJpy opened with a gap of almost 100 pips.
After a low at 146, the pair started to rise, and looks like it wants to fill this gap.
Last week of trading UsdJpy consolidated and considering yesterday's open, a correction could be next.
In my opinion, rallies around 147.50 should be sold and, considering a stop loss above the recent high, a 1:3 risk:reward trade could be achieved if the pair drops to support
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Gold under a cluster of resistancesIn yesterday's post, I said that my bias for Gold is still bullish, however, confirmation is needed to consider a higher low in place.
Yesterday, after a double touch of 1930 short-term resistance, XauUsd consolidated and stayed in the middle of the newly formed range.
As we can see the the posted chart, we are still under resistance and, in fact, the price is under a very important level between 1930 and 1935, given by the falling trend line and 2 important horizontal levels.
A break above this level could trigger a lot of stop losses and we could have acceleration to 1980 in such an instance.
On the other hand, a break under the recent low could lead to further losses toward the 1870 low with interim support at the 1900 zone.
GBP/AUD LONG TRADE IDEAHello fellow traders!
GBP/AUD is trading today along the rising support line, which the pair has been following since the beginning of the year.
Previously, the pair failed to break the line and consolidate below it.
This week, I believe we will see a further rise from the line.
I recommend to place a long position from the price of 1.94450.
Stop loss at 1.93650.
Intermediate target: 1.96000
Main target: 1.98200
Risk:reward ratio 4.7
Gold- Two important levels for bullsAfter the recent low under 1920, Gold has started to consolidate in a 100 pips range.
Although Friday's close is bearish, XauUsd recovered strongly on the Asian Session last night and is trading now towards the upper boundary of the range.
A break above this level would be the first indication of reversal with a clear confirmation if Gold is breaking and close back above 1935.
In such an instance we could consider the recent low as a higher low and expect continuation to the upside at 1980 resistance.
EurJpy could lose supportSince the end of February low under 140, EurJpy rose strongly, more than 2000 pips and almost touching 160 important figure.
In August, the pair consolidated, and this consolidation could very well be distribution.
Now the pair is trading under 157 zone support and a daily close under this support could lead to further losses.
As long as the 158.70 high is intact I'm looking to sell rallies with a target at 154 support.
In the medium term, however, the pair could drop even to important 151.50 support.
CadJpy could drop to support levelSince mid-July, CadJpy has been trading inside an ascending triangle with price congestion in the last 3 weeks.
Ascending triangles are usually continuation patterns and considering the up trend of the pair, this could be the case also now.
However, a break under the support line could lead to a steep dive to important support at 102.
In my opinion, even if we have a break above the triangle's resistance, this will be a false one.
In conclusion, I'm looking to sell, either after the false break (if will be the case), or after the break of the ascending trend line down break.
GbpJpy- More than 500 pips selling opportunity2023 was a very strong year for GbpJpy, with the pair rising more than 3k pips, exceeding my target of 180 as explained in both my 17th of January 2022 and 20th of April 2022 long-term analysis.
Although the pair remains in an up trend, for a month now, GbpJpy has failed on 186, unable to make a new high, leaving long up-tailed weekly candles.
This suggests that a top could be in place and a much-needed correction could follow.
With this in mind, I will look to sell rallies for a medium-term trade with a 500 pips target.
A new high would negate my outlook.
My previous long-term analyses for GbpJpy:
Gold- Potential higher lowAs you know, I was bullish Gold all week and also bought around 1930.
Unfortunately, my buy trade was closed with a low when XauUsd dropped under 1920 2 days ago.
At this moment, I'm out with no trade running, but my bullish bias remains.
However, for opening a long trade I need more confirmation and this comes with a break back above 1935, which at this moment is confluence resistance given by the falling trend line and the horizontal level.
In conclusion, at this moment there is a potential higher low in place, and confirmation for this comes with a break above 1935.
Also, a positive day close will give us a Morning Star candle formation on the daily chart and a week close above 1940 will give us a Pin Bar on the weekly chart.
So, for now, wait and see is my approach.
EurUsd- I'm looking to sell ralliesSince mid-July, EurUsd has entered a downtrend. The confirmation for this came with a break under the one-year-long up trend line in mid-August. After the confirmation of resistance at 1.0930 at the beginning of September, the pair made a new 250 pips leg down and stopped in support.
Now EurUsd is trading at 1.0715 and is consolidating.
A correction to the upside could follow and this could offer bears the opportunity to sell at better prices.
In conclusion, in my opinion, traders should look for selling opportunities around 1.08 for a 1.05 target.
Only a break back above 1.0950 would shift my outlook to bullish
XAUUSD BUY, Trend RefersalDear Ziilllaatraders,
We can see a trend reversal happening. Today we saw a big consolidation today. We saw strong upward and downward movement in matter of minutes. This suggest a battle between sellers and buyers in this zone. We suggest that we are going to see a increase in price due to liquidations.
Feel free to ask any questions.
Greetings,
Ziilllaatrades
Gold has dropped to my buy zone. Now what?In yesterday's comment, I wrote that although XauUsd could drop to the 1930 zone, I will remain bullish and buy the dip, and I did.
At the time of writing my trade is floating with 30 to 50 pips loss and, although I would have wanted a straight-up arrow after my buying, I'm still bullish.
As we can see from the chart, after Gold dropped under 1900, a 700 pips leg up followed and after touching the falling trend line resistance started in May, began to drop again.
So far, the drop from the recent top could be only a correction, and, with the price trading exactly in a confluence of supports given by the 50% Fibo and the horizontal level a reversal is probable
With this in mind, I will hold my trade for now and expect reversal from this point with a clear confirmation of reversal to the upside above 1940. In this case, a new leg up is very probable and I will aim for 1980 resistance.
On the other hand, a drop under this level would put a pause on my bullish scenario.
Happy trading!
Mihai Iacob
EurNzd could rise to 1.9- Long term outlookEurNzd is a very volatile pair and for sure is very risky to trade it in the short term, however, if you take a look at the longer picture and ignore 100+ pips usually daily volatility, you can find pretty nice opportunities. I think this is the case right now...
EurNzd has been in a bull trend for quite some time and from May to August the pair formed a nice ascending triangle which was broken at the beginning of August. A retest of the broken resistance level followed, and a quick reversal after the touch.
Also, this correction from 1.8446 top is a bullish flag and once broken, would suggest continuation. This, correlated with the 1k pips target given by the triangle, could lead to a rise to 1.9.
That being said, I'm bullish EurNzd in the long term and I think the pair will reach 1.9 by year's end.
Happy trading!
Mihai Iacob
UsdJpy- Will it test 150 again?Two weeks ago I drew attention to the 145 level that should provide support for UsdJpy.
Indeed, the pair reversed twice from this level with a very strong reversal last Friday.
As we clearly see from the chart, the trend is strongly bullish, and the only thing that brings some buying power for JPY is BoJ.
I expect continuation to the upside and a new test of 150.
However, as I just said, KEEP IN MIND A BOJ INTERVENTION AND USE STOP LOSS!!!
DXY is eyeing 105.50In my 24th of August DXY analysis, I explained why I'm bullish USD Index and suggested buy dips around 103 support.
It worked like a charm and after a short dive to support, bulls returned with vengeance and drove the price back up to resistance.
At this moment I expect also a break above this resistance in which instance traders could expect continuation towards the next one at 104.50.
I'm looking to sell rallies for EurUsd, AudUsd, GbpUsd, and NzdUsd.
My 24th August analysis:
UsdCad- Break above resistance next?After the low from mid-July, UsdCad has started to reverse and after the small correction from last week, last Friday was also marked by an immense Bullish Engulfing from short-term support which led the pair into the resistance zone again.
The structure from the low is strongly bullish and I believe this resistance will fall sooner rather than later.
I'm very bullish UsdCad as long as 1.35 is intact and a break above the 1.3650 zone could lead to acceleration to the upside and expose the 1.3850 zone.
In conclusion, my strategy is to buy dips under 1.36 in search of a good risk: reward considering the levels that I mentioned.
EurUsd could drop to 1.05 zoneIn my previous EurUsd analysis I wrote that the break of the one-year rising trend line could signal further losses for the pair and traders should keep an eye on the 1.09 zone, suggesting selling above this figure.
EurUsd reversed perfectly from resistance leaving a long-tailed continuation Pin Bar on our chart suggesting bears are very strong.
Going further, I expect further weakness for the pair and I'm looking for a drop to important 1.05 very important zone support in the medium term.
The strategy should be sell rallies and only a daily close above the recent high would negate this bearish scenario.
Gold (XauUsd) could rise to 1980As you may already know from my previous posts, I’m bullish Gold in the medium term. The basis for this outlook can be observed on the weekly chart. XAU/USD experienced a false downward break beneath the 1900 mark, but this, in the end, has become a bullish engulfing candle. This was followed by a breakout above the resistance of a falling wedge pattern, clearly visible on lower timeframes, followed by the break above the horizontal 1930-1935 zone (which I've previously discussed in my analyses).
Now the price is consolidating the recent gains and, considering Gold is facing the major falling trend line of the channel, a correction is not out of the question.
However, as long as the price stays above 1930- now support- bulls hold the upper hand and a sell would be pretty risky.
In conclusion, in my opinion, dips should be bought with a target at around 1980.
Negation comes with a daily close under 1930
Bitcoin- Sell rallies for a break under supportIn my previous Bitcoin analysis, I said that even 26k could offer support, I don't believe in a real reversal from here. I even had a short-term buy with a 28k target which was reached last week.
My idea remains unchanged and after last week's reversal, is reinforced.
Technically speaking, the support of the rising channel started at the beginning of the year is broken and, last week's candle is a Pin Bar, both with strongly bearish implications in the medium term.
That being said, my strategy is selling rallies for a break of support and only a close above 28k would change my opinion.
The next important support is 21k zone support which could represent bears' target in the medium term.
XAUUSD RETRACE SHORTDear Ziilllaatraders,
We will see a retrace happening anytime soon. Inflation has gone up, and after the NFP we seen a strong dollar. People are being cautious about a possible increase in rate hikes. We think this is temporary so we will see a short and after this a big rise in gold prices.
Feel free to ask any questions
Greetings,
Ziilllaatrades
XAUUSD Short The Cloud Is talkingDear Ziilllaatraders,
The Ichimoku Cloud, a popular technical analysis tool, consists of several components that provide valuable insights into market trends and potential price movements. One of its key components is the "cloud" or "Kumo." The cloud is formed by two lines: the Senkou Span A (also known as the leading span A) and the Senkou Span B (leading span B). When the price of an asset is below the cloud, it can be interpreted as a bearish signal.
Here's why the Ichimoku Cloud is indicating bearish signs for XAUUSD:
Price Below the Cloud:
The most prominent observation is that the current XAUUSD price is positioned below the Ichimoku Cloud. This placement suggests that the overall market sentiment is bearish and that sellers may have the upper hand in the near term.
Cloud as a Dynamic Resistance/Support:
The Ichimoku Cloud is not just a static indicator; it also serves as dynamic resistance or support levels. When the price is under the cloud, it implies that the cloud itself is acting as a resistance zone, potentially hindering upward price movement.
Bearish Momentum:
The position of the price under the cloud reflects the current trend's strength and direction. In this case, the fact that the price is below the cloud indicates a bearish momentum, implying that the market is biased towards further downside movement.
Confirmation from Lagging Span:
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is another component of the Ichimoku Cloud. When the Lagging Span is below the price, it adds further confirmation to the bearish sentiment, suggesting that recent historical price action is supportive of the current bearish trend.
From this technical perspective, the Ichimoku Cloud's indication of the price being below the cloud aligns with a bearish sentiment for XAUUSD. However, it's important to note that technical analysis should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis, such as fundamental analysis and market sentiment, to make well-informed trading decisions. It's also crucial to consider potential risks and uncertainties that could impact market dynamics, as technical indicators provide insights based on historical price patterns and trends.
As always, traders and investors should exercise caution, use proper risk management, and consider a comprehensive approach to analysis when making trading decisions in the financial markets.
Greetings,
Ziilllaatraders
DXY- What's up with the US DollarIn my previous DXY analysis, I wrote that, after the false break from mid-July, USD most probably reversed to the upside, and there are clear signs of this:
1. After the false break we have a strong bullish engulfing candle that confirms the old support (green rectangle)
2. Long-tailed Pin Bar candle that confirms the break above the falling trend line (red rectangle)
At this moment, the index is testing a horizontal resistance and yesterday we had a reversal candle.
In my opinion, this candle is not signaling reversal but, in the best case, a minor correction.
This correction should be considered a good chance to search for selling opportunities for USD pairs and my main focus is on EurUsd and AudUsd
Gold is flirting with 1900. My target remains 1930 thoughAs I explained on Monday and yesterday, in my opinion, Gold will reverse and rise to test the 1930 resistance zone.
My opinion remains the same and after yesterday's price action is even reinforced.
As we could've noticed, after the touch of 1905 interim resistance (my initial target), Gold dropped and tested 1890 once more, bulls quickly took control leaving a nice H4 pin bar on our chart.
Also, XauUsd looks like it is forming a rounded bottom on shorter time frames, one more argument in favor of bulls.
To conclude, the strategy remains the same, buy dips with a target at 1930 zone and negation under 1883 low.
Bitcoin- Short term traders could look to buyIn my previous Bitcoin analysis, I said that, in my opinion, Bitcoin will eventually drop under support, and this remains my idea for the medium term.
However, the recent strong reversal from support makes me believe that a correction could follow, and short-term traders could speculate on this.
Technically, as I said, BtcUsd reversed from support and buy dips under 26k would also have a very good R:R if we target 28k resistance