NASDAQ rally still at its start. Very high upside post electionsExactly 3 months ago (August 05, see chart below) when Nasdaq (NDX) erased the gains of 3 months and was sold-off to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) we posted the following idea using the 2-year Fibonacci Channel Up on the index, claiming that it was the best buy entry in recent months:
The buy turned out to be very effective as the index rebounded aggressively and last week made a 3-month High. Ahead of the U.S. elections today and the natural short-term volatility that they will inflict on the market, we decided to bring that chart forward again, as it will help keep an unbiased long-term perspective that will filter out the short-term noise.
As you can see the index held its 1D MA50 (red trend-line) last week despite the sharp pull-back. The price remained within the 0.382 - 0.5 Zone of the Fibonacci Channel, while the 1W RSI is holding its MA (yellow trend-line). Every time the index got in a similar situation within this Channel Up, it still had much upside left before it topped.
At the same time, we are just below the 0.5 Fib level of a projected +47% rise from the August bottom (sequence of Bullish Legs since the start +49%, then +48%, next +47%), a symmetric pattern showing the strong potential of the index, as long as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds.
For the 1st Stage of the current Bullish Leg, we have a minimum Target of 22500 for the end of the year, which represents the rally that the May 27 2024 and January 01 2024 pull-back rebounds had that held the 1D MA50. As for the full length of the Bullish Leg, which is our long-term Target, we still expect the index to complete a +47% and reach 25400.
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Signals
SPX500USD Will Move Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,735.3.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,643.6.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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EURCAD Is Very Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURCAD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.512.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.516 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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SNAP Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on SNAP:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of SNAP prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 11usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-1,
for a premium of approximately $1.01.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
SILVER: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily SILVER prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 32.80212$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.08801
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
TROYUSD turned Parabolic. Buy on the next pull-back.Troy (TROYUSD) broke last week above the Lower Highs trend-line of the Accumulation Phase of the Bull Cycle and even though it failed to close the 1W candle above it, the current week started with extremely strong buying pressure that topped last week's High.
Even though we will need the closing above the Lower Highs at the end of the week, the current buying pressure confirmed that the trend has turned parabolic. It is technically similar to the January - February 2021 rally that turned parabolic and reached as high as the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
Having formed at the same time a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD, we expect a minor pull-back as on February 15 - 22 2021 that will allow for a better entry. Our Target is naturally the 1.786 Fib at 0.012000.
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GOLD: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily GOLD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 2,731.930$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 103.863$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
CHFJPY Will Go Higher! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for CHFJPY.
Time Frame: 3h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 175.805.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 176.531 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GBPUSD technical bearish, eye on BoE MPCMarket expectations for the November 7 meeting
The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet this Thursday, with 90% of market participants expecting interest rates to be cut by 25 basis points from 5% to 4, 75%.
This follows the central bank's first interest rate cut of 2024, which took place at the meeting ending on July 31, 2024. At this meeting, the MPC voted with a majority to reduce the Interest Rate Bank interest rate 0.25%, down to 5%.
Key economic indicators influence decisions
Recent data paint a complicated picture for BoE decision-makers. The current inflation index of 1.7% is lower than the bank's 2% target, so is no longer an immediate concern for the BoE.
According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK unemployment rate (for those aged 16 and over) is estimated to be 4.0% in June to August 2024 compared to 4.1% before there.
From June to August 2024, average annual employee regular earnings growth (excluding bonuses) is 4.9% and the region's average annual regular earnings growth public sector was 5.2%, down 5.7% compared to the same period three months ago; for the private sector it is 4.8%.
Global monetary policy context
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) also meets this Thursday, with markets pricing a 25 basis point interest rate cut to 4.50%-4.75% with a probability of nearly 100%. This creates an interesting context for the BoE's decision as global central banks are increasingly shifting their focus from fighting inflation to supporting economic growth.
Analyze technical prospects OANDA:GBPUSD
On the daily chart, GPB/USD recovered from the lower edge of the price channel, however, the recovery was limited as the main trend of GBP/USD up to now is still a downtrend noticed by the channel. price.
GBP/USD is also under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the 1.30042 horizontal resistance level and the EMA21 moving average.
Even if GBP/USD manages to move above 1.30042, it still doesn't have much solid bullish conditions as there are other resistance levels above from 1.30448 and the confluence of the upper channel edge with the 0.382% Fibonacci.
As long as GBP/USD remains below Ema21 and within the price channel it remains technically bearish, while the Relative Strength Index is also close to 50, the 50 level being considered resistance when RSI is below this level.
During the day, the technical outlook for GBP/USD is bearish with the highlights listed below.
Support: 1.29073 – 1.28448
Resistance: 1.29842 – 1.30042 – 1.30448 – 1.30705
EURUSD at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?Hello Ben's great friends!
Currently, EURUSD is fluctuating about 1,0878 in the early morning session in Asia. The US dollar decreased slightly when traders prepare for the US presidential election and the possibility that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, supporting some support for the main currency pair.
Moreover, based on technical analysis, the price is approaching the strong support area (suitable for EMA 34.89). If this support level is maintained, it can act as a platform to increase prices.
What do you think about this view? Let me know your ideas.
Lingrid | GBPNZD fake BREAKOUT of the Previous DAY highFX:GBPNZD has reached a strong resistance zone on the daily timeframe, pulling back from the 2.18000 level. As observed, the price has been creating impulse legs followed by weaker pullbacks. Recently, the market formed a compression channel or an ascending triangle pattern. I anticipate bearish momentum potentially forming ABV pullback toward the support level, especially since the market made a fake breakout above the previous day's high. My goal is support zone around 2.15610
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Lingrid | SUIUSDT continues to CONSOLIDATE after SURGEThe price perfectly fulfills my last idea. It hit the target level. BINANCE:SUIUSDT is currently consolidating around the round number of 2.00. It may continue moving sideways, particularly after the recent fake breakout of the all-time high level formed in March. If you zoom out, you can see that the price action is forming a triangle pattern. I believe there is a possibility that the price may retest the 1.50 support level, which would be a healthy pullback that could lead toa new higher highs. Given that the market is moving sideways, I expect it to retest the recent support level from the psychological level at 2.00. My goal is support zone around 1.7450
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GBPUSD Hits Resistance – Is Selling Opportunity Coming?Today, GBPUSD is showing a potential short setup based on recent price action and key technical levels. The pair is trading around 1.2963, close to a significant resistance zone near 1.2990-1.3000, as shown on the chart. This area is converging with the 34 EMA and 89 EMA, which could act as additional resistance.
Traders can consider entering near current levels with a stop loss above 1.3047. This setup offers an opportunity for a downside move within a controlled risk-on environment.
What do you think about this setup? Do you think the resistance will hold or is GBPUSD likely to break above it and continue the uptrend?
World gold prices fall when the USD index is anchored highInvestors are expressing caution ahead of the US Presidential election and the upcoming decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED) on interest rates.
Today (November 5), the US presidential election will take place. Public opinion polls show that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump are closely tied in the race for the White House.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo shared: "The driving force for gold this week will be the US presidential election. If Donald Trump wins, the gold price will move faster closer to the target of 2,900 USD/ ounces, gold will likely fall if Ms. Kamala Harris wins.
Meanwhile, the Fed's interest rate decision is unlikely to create much change, because the bank will likely signal further cuts in line with market expectations."
🔥 XAUUSD BUY LIMIT 2727 - 2725🔥
✅TP1: 2755
✅TP2: 2765
✅TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2724
🔥 XAUUSD SELL LIMIT 2753 - 2751🔥
✅TP1: 2745
✅TP2: 2735
✅TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2760
ETHUSDT Price Analysis November 5, 2024Ethereum (ETH) recently experienced a bearish breakout below the main trendline on the 4-hour chart, signaling potential downside momentum in the near term. Currently, ETHUSDT is trading around 2.421, with both the 34 EMA and 89 EMA acting as resistance above, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
What do you think about this analysis? Do you see Ethereum recovering or is it likely to continue falling?
BNBUSDT: Potential Downside Direction Ahead !In today's trading session, BNBUSDT is facing clear bearish pressure after breaking the important support zone around $573. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 show that the downtrend is strengthening, and the price has now continued to fall to the $560 area, below the important moving averages, marking a weak signal in the short term.
It is expected that BNBUSDT may continue to correct to the next support levels at $548 and $534 if the selling pressure does not decrease. Moreover, if there is no support signal from positive news or strong price action bounce from the support zone, BNB is likely to fall deeper in the coming period.
SOLUSDT: Strong Correction – Recovery Opportunity?On the daily chart of SOLUSDT, we can see that after a sharp increase and approaching the resistance zone around $180, SOL is now under pressure to correct and reverse. This correction comes amid increasing risk-off sentiment among investors due to the uncertain global economic situation. Moreover, inflation remains high, while central banks around the world, especially the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are still maintaining tight monetary policies.
However, SOLUSDT is still fluctuating around the support zone from the long-term uptrend line. If SOL holds the current support zone and gains buying momentum, there is a high possibility that the price will bounce back and retest the resistance zone of $180.
Good luck everyone!
Alikze »» CKB | Corrective wave AB=CD pattern🔍 Technical analysis: Corrective wave AB=CD pattern
- In the weekly time frame, after filling the FVG gap, it has faced demand.
- After filling the gap of FVG, this rising wave had a growth of more than 200%, which has again faced selling pressure in the supply area.
- Currently, according to the bearish guard, in case of inability and stabilization above the 0.012200 area, the corrective structure will extend to the PRZ-3 area.
💎 But if it encounters demand again in the first high potential area where there is a FVG gap, it can retest the supply area.
💎In addition, if there is a demand in the PRZ-2 area, it can be extended to the PRZ-3 area with the pullback to PRZ-1.
💎Therefore, one should wait for the demand and return wave in areas with high return potential.
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BINANCE:CKBUSDT
Alikze »» SUI | Descending channel - 4H🔍 Technical analysis: Descending channel - 4H
- It is moving in a descending channel in the 4-hour time frame.
- Currently, the supply area is facing sales pressure.
- According to the correction structure in the 4-hour time frame, if there is no ability and stabilization above the number 1.95, the correction will continue until the area of 1.56.
- The 1.56 range can have short-term targets of 1.66 and 1.75 if it meets demand.
- In addition, in case of selling pressure in the range of 1.75, the correction will extend to the green box.
💹 Support zones in the case of extension of the correction log: 1.30 - 1.23 - 1.13
💎Alternative scenario, if it can consolidate above 1.95, could have short-term targets of 2.14 and 2.34.
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BINANCE:SUIUSDT
The Loss Effect: Why Traders Hold On To Losing Positions📍 In the realm of trading, the psychological weight of losses often outweighs the thrill of gains. This phenomenon, known as loss aversion , refers to the innate human tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains. Within the context of financial markets, this bias can lead traders to stubbornly cling to losing positions, driven by the hope that market conditions will eventually shift in their favor. Consequently, their focus often shifts away from the potential for profit to a preoccupation with preserving their existing capital.
📍 Reasons Traders Avoid Closing Losing Trades
Several psychological factors contribute to traders’ decisions to retain losing trades:
1. Emotional Attachment
Traders are not immune to the emotions that accompany financial decisions. When individuals invest in an asset, they often form an emotional bond with that investment. Experiencing a loss can feel like a personal defeat, stirring feelings of shame, frustration , and anger. This emotional attachment can cloud judgment and impede rational decision-making. Rather than assessing the asset’s current market value objectively, traders may cling to the hope that conditions will improve, in an effort to circumvent the distress associated with acknowledging a loss.
2. Fear of Realizing a Loss
The psychology of loss is complex, with many traders perceiving the act of realizing a loss as more painful than the prospect of missing out on potential gains. This fear can compel traders to hold on to losing positions, hoping that the market will rebound to their initial entry points. By postponing the realization of a loss, they believe they can mitigate its emotional impact. However, this paradoxical reasoning often leads to extended periods in losing positions, even as downward trends become increasingly pronounced.
3. Lack of Confidence in Their Strategy
Traders often rely on specific strategies or analyses when making investment decisions. When the market begins to turn against them, a sense of doubt regarding the validity of their strategy can emerge. This internal conflict can make it challenging for a trader to acknowledge a mistake. Instead of reevaluating their positions and accepting the reality of a loss, they may irrationally hold onto failing trades, hoping for an unexpected turnaround—an approach that typically exacerbates their situation.
4. Challenges with Objective Analysis
Emotional responses can significantly hinder traders’ ability to conduct objective analyses of their positions. Important data and market signals indicating a need to exit a position may be ignored, leading to cognitive dissonance. This disconnect between emotion and analysis often causes traders to remain in unprofitable trades far longer than warranted, despite clear evidence suggesting the necessity of a change in strategy.
5. Cognitive Distortions
Traders are susceptible to a variety of cognitive distortions that can cloud their judgment:
⚫️ Selective Attention: Many traders may emphasize their winning trades while minimizing the importance of their losses. This selective focus can result in a failure to adequately analyze losing positions, leading to the selection bias known as " cherry-picking ."
⚫️ Confirmation Bias: This cognitive bias leads traders to seek out and prioritize information that reaffirms their initial decisions, while disregarding contradictory evidence. As a result, they may grow increasingly reluctant to close losing positions, insisting on data that supports their original decision to invest.
📍 Conclusion: To Hold or Not to Hold Losing Positions?
Deciding whether to maintain or close a losing position ultimately hinges on one's tolerance for losses. If a stock continues to decline in value without signs of recovery, persisting in holding it may be misguided; in such cases, it may be more prudent to exit and then consider purchasing at a more favorable price. However, it is equally ill-advised to close positions at the slightest market correction. The crux of the matter lies in understanding the underlying reasons for the loss. If no fundamental issues exist and the downturn appears temporary—especially when the loss aligns with typical statistical drawdowns—there may be no need to exit the position prematurely. Ultimately, a balanced approach involving emotional detachment and a keen awareness of market dynamics can aid traders in making more informed and strategically sound decisions regarding their positions.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣