GOLD corrects, possibility remains optimistic as FOMC is comingOANDA:XAUUSD eased the correction significantly, which was partly due to the market taking profits after gold prices hit a five-week high and rushing to close positions ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. In addition, higher US bond interest rates also affect gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply on Thursday and was limited this trading day (Friday), as of press time, as traders booked profits following the release of US PPI data.
PPI data exceeded expectations, suggesting the fight against inflation may be stalling. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate increased slightly by 1.5 basis points to 4.289%, which also put pressure on gold.
The US producer price index (PPI) rose higher than expected in November due to soaring food costs. The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the U.S. PPI rose 3% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in November. Previous market expectations were 2% .6% and 0.2%.
Although Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations, it still rose at a seven-month high.
However, gold is expected to hold onto gains this week as optimism grows that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. Traders' attention is turning to the prospect that the Federal Reserve may pause policy easing as early as 2025. Lower borrowing costs typically benefit gold because gold itself does not create out yield.
According to a report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday, gold's gains are expected to slow in 2025 as concerns about growth and inflation during Donald Trump's presidency have can affect the ability to increase the price of gold.
Gold prices have risen more than 30% year-to-date and are on track for their biggest annual gain since 1979. The rapid rise has been fueled by the Federal Reserve's easing policy, demand safe-haven demand and continued buying activity by global central banks.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has corrected but overall it still has all the conditions for a technical upside with price activity outside the channel and above the EMA21 level.
Currently, gold's uptrend is temporarily limited by resistance at $2,693, the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement price point, more than the 0.236% Fibonacci level noticed by previous readers.
On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index also maintains activity above the 50 level, which should be considered a positive signal for the bullish outlook in the near future.
As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and outside the price channel, in the short term it is still likely to increase with notable points listed below.
Support: 2,676 – 2,663 – 2,644USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700 – 2,730USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2706 - 2704⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2710
→Take Profit 1 2699
↨
→Take Profit 2 2694
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2655
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2671
Signals
GBPJPY- Reversal above 195?After reaching a low of 188, GBP/JPY reversed to the upside in a normal corrective move and found resistance near the 192 zone. A subsequent drop followed, but instead of resuming its downtrend, the pair began consolidating within a range.
The emerging pattern, while not perfect, resembles an inverse Head & Shoulders. A break above the neckline would confirm this formation and pave the way for further gains, potentially targeting the 195 resistance level.
I remain bullish on GBP/JPY as long as the pair stays above the recent consolidation support.
DXY- Will it continue up into year's end?December is usually a bearish month for the USD. However, this time, the situation could be different. The USD seems well-supported by fundamentals, and the technicals are looking bullish.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see that after the local high at 108, the index started to fall and broke below the support from the April-May highs (old resistance). However, after hitting a low at the 105.50 zone, the USD Index reversed, breaking above the falling trendline of the corrective falling wedge and also reclaiming the 106.40 resistance.
At this moment, there is a high chance of upward continuation, and as long as the 106–106.40 zone remains intact, the outlook remains valid.
GbpUsd- Where to sell?The GBP/USD currency pair has been in a downtrend for quite some time.
Recently, however, after dropping just below the important psychological level of 1.25, the pair started to reverse and show some upward movement.
While this rise is notable, it is important to recognize that it appears to be corrective in nature. The price is currently forming a rising wedge pattern, which typically signals that the uptrend may soon lose momentum. Based on this technical structure, I expect the downtrend to resume in the near future.
In my opinion, any rallies above the 1.28 level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. A stop loss placed above the 1.29 level would ensure a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3 could be achieved if we target the recent low.
ETHEREUM Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
ETHEREUM is making a
Recovery after a local
Flashcrash but the coin
Will soon hit a strong
Horizontal resistance
Of 4100$ from where
A local bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
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GBP-NZD Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-NZD is trading in an
Uptrend so despite the fact
That the pair is making a local
Bearish correction now we are
Bullish biased so after it retests
The horizontal support of 2.1872
We will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
Buy!
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Lingrid | GOLD Short-term RETRACEMENT from PSYCHOLOGICAL LevelOANDA:XAUUSD has moved higher, breaking through the prolonged consolidation zone. The price has reached the key resistance zone ahead of the Core CPI release, testing the psychological level at 2700 and weekly high level. This level has previously acted as resistance, and I think that the market may drop from this level, forming a short-term pullback. Therefore I expect the market to pull back from the resistance and the upward trendline before considering further upward movement because the market may retest the middle of the consolidation zone. My goal is support zone around 2665
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Lingrid | AUDUSD trend CONTINUATION tradeThe price perfectly fulfills my last idea. It reached target. FX:AUDUSD is currently showing a bearish trend by a series of lower lows and lower closes. After pulling back from its support level, the market retested the resistance zone, only to fall back down. I expect the downtrend to continue, with the price likely to move further downwards. Notably, a long-tailed candle formed at the resistance zone, hinting at a potential reversal and trend continuation. I expect the price move below the psychological level at 0.64000 and retest the support zones. My goal is support zone around 0.63780
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XAUUSD - possible outcomes today?Here is our view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for.
Since our last in-depth analysis on XAUUSD posted on November 27th , it has followed the projection and reached 2714 . Right now we have a few opportunities on our hands. Looking at XAUUSD we have possible buys if we break above 2720 and break today’s highs. On the other hand we could see pullbacks down to our PBA 1 (Pullback Area) sitting at around 2700 flat, and we could enter into more safe buys . If we break below 2700 (PBA 1) , we could see some sells in play. To write this in detail, here are the possible outcomes.
Scenario 1: BUYS from 2720
We broke above 2720 .
That would confirm continuation buys and we would have to keep our eye out on the breaks of today’s highs.
Scenario 2: BUYS from 2700
We made the pullback down to 2700 and are trading above it. That would give us a nice and safe area to enter into buys targeting today’s highs or possibly higher.
Scenario 3: SELLS from 2700
We broke below 2700 , and are now targeting breaks of 2690 and re-visits of 2675.
Personal opinion:
The direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. Be patient and stay tuned for possible scalps on this pair.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD breaking above 2720 would confirm buys.
- XAUUSD failing to break below 2700 would confirm buys.
- Breaks below 2700 would result in sells, down to 2690 and 2675.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
Will Gold also test the next resistance level?It’s been a highly bullish week for OANDA:XAUUSD traders, with prices not only reaching but surpassing all my targets one by one.
As I outlined in Monday's outlook, if the bulls manage to break above the 2655–2660 resistance zone, the 2785 level would be exposed, and more importantly, the price would very likely move beyond 2700.
Yesterday, that prediction materialized as we saw a decisive break above this critical milestone, with FOREXCOM:XAUUSD reaching the 2718 target—and even surpassing it.
Overnight, the price briefly dropped from 2725, touching the newly formed support at 2700 before reversing strongly upward.
The overall structure remains extremely bullish, with every dip being bought by traders.
This momentum should guide our strategy moving forward, focusing now on the next resistance zone at 2755–2760.
USDJPY 1st 1D Golden Cross since June 2023! Bullish!The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 21 2022 High. Today it formed its 1st Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1.5 year (since June 202 2023) and technically it is a very bullish development.
It is not just the standard bullish dynamics of this formation but also that last time we had a Golden Cross, the price bottomed upon the completion of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, which we also got today and rallied to hit the Resistance 1 level.
As a result, this is a strong buy signal and our Target is just below Resistance 1 at 160.000.
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BTCUSD - Possible sells?Here is our signal on BTCUSD . Potential short opportunity.
As the price on BTCUSD is moving in a “range” we could take this into our advantage and sell BTCUSD at the top of it. With smaller time-frames such as m15 we can see a clear break of the 100k support zone. We can enter into safe sells and target at around 98k. Our entry is sitting at the break of the support zone at 100296 . Our SL (Stop Loss) is sitting at 101273 while our TP (Take Profit) is sitting at 98276 .
PARAMETERS
- Entry: 100296
- SL: 101273
- TP: 98276
KEY NOTES
- BTCUSD broke the support zone on m15.
- BTCUSD is trading in a range.
- We are at the top of the range.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Silver is pressing for an up breakIn my Monday analysis, I noted that Silver was gathering momentum just below the 31.40 resistance level, with a high probability of breaking upward. Such a breakout could pave the way for a significant rise of approximately 2000 pips.
As anticipated, the price broke above 31.40, climbing nearly 1000 pips before beginning a period of correction and consolidation.
My bullish outlook remains firmly intact, and I continue to expect a move toward the 33.50 level.
The strategy of "buying on dips" should remain the focus for traders. Additionally, a decisive break above 32.50 would confirm the next leg of the rally, potentially unlocking another 1000-pip rise toward the target.
DXY Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 106.563.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 105.718 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USOIL Will Go Higher! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 70.58.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 72.27 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPUSD Will Go Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.275.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.282 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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