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S&P500 Dead Cat Bounce or V-shaped Recovery?The S&P500 index (SPX) saw a remarkable turnaround yesterday after the Wall Street opening. The early futures sell-off came very close to the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate Support level since the March 2009 Housing Crisis bottom (the last major Bear Cycle). It supported the 2022 Inflation Crisis, the 2018 U.S. - China Trade War, the 2015 E.U./ Oil Crisis and 2011 correction. It only broke during the irregularity of the March 2020 COVID flash crash. Note that the 1W RSI hitting 27.30 has only happened during the COVID crash and the actual March 2009 Housing Crisis Bottom. At the same time, the index reached the All Time High (ATH) trend-line (dashed0 of the High before the 2022 Inflation Crisis (previous correction phase). As this chart shows, previous ATH trend-lines have never been broken during the correction phases that followed them. In any case, the million dollar question is of course this: Was yesterday a Dead Cat Bounce inside the new Bear Cycle or we are ahead of a V-shaped recovery? Well technically it depends on the 1W MA200 (the market needs 1W candles to close above it) while fundamentally if depends on potential trade deals and of course the Fed (the market needs rate cut assurances). If this is a V-shaped Recovery indeed, there is no reason not to expect the market to follow all previous rebounds of 1W MA200 corrections that weren't Bear Cycles (Bear Cycles on this chart are 2008 and 2022). As you can see, all rebounds have been sharp, indeed V-shaped recoveries, ranging from 20 to 27 weeks (140 - 189 days) until they broke their previous High. So this indicates that technically, SPX should make new ATH by October 13 2025 the latest (and September 02 earliest). Of course this is just a projection, this time we have no COVID shutdowns, no Grexits or Brexits, no Oil crises, it is all due to one fact, the tariffs and if deals are reached and the Fed delivers the much needed rat cuts, the recovery may be even faster, as sharp as the correction has been. The facts are on the historic data on the chart. The conclusions are yours. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
Lingrid | EURGBP tests RESISTANCE at July 2024 High. ShortThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea . It hit TP. FX:EURGBP market shot up and reached the resistance zone as well as channel border. The price is now near the July High of 2024. The market has completed an ABC move where the C point is near the psychological level at 0.86000. On the 1H timeframe, the price has formed a double top with bearish divergence, suggesting a potential pullback. If the market remains below this resistance zone, I expect the price may retest the lower levels after the impulse leg. My goal is support level 0.84600 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
3
BITCOIN Is it still on track with past Cycles??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) saw a strong correction last week as well as early trade yesterday on Monday, along with all major stock markets, but had an equally impressive round on Wall Street opening, which keeps it so far above its key 1W MA50 on a potentially weekly closing. So the critical question now is this: Will it continue the pattern of past Cycles and give one more major rally in 2025? Well based on the BTC Rainbow Waves, it is still on track and actually in a similar situation as July 2013 when after a 3-month correction/ pull-back sequence, it got back to the Blue Buy Zone and near the Fair Value green trend-line. As you can see all Cycles peaked on the Red Zone and so far on this Cycle we haven't even reached the 1st orange trend-line. Based on the Time Cycles, the next peak should be around November 2025 and if the price action confirms the Rainbow Wave model again, the closest level to the Red Zone by then would be around $180000. Do you think that amidst the trade war chaos, that's a realistic expectation? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! P.S. I am attaching a snapshot below in case the waves aren't displayed properly on the chart above: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
21
Lingrid | DOGEUSDT bearish TREND with Short-Term Relief RallyThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea . It reached the target. The market has completed an impulse leg and recently bounced off the support level that was previously tested in October 2024. Overall, the market is making lower lows and lower closes, indicating bearish dominance. As we can see, the price is currently testing the 0.1500 level, and I believe it may move higher toward the channel border around 0.1600. Considering the overall bearish trend, I expect the market to continue making lower lows or possibly create a consolidation zone at this current support area. My goal is support zone around 0.1400 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
1
Gold's Rollercoaster: From 3167 ATH to 2950 Support–What's Next?Since the beginning of the year, Gold has been on an impressive uptrend, gaining over 5000 pips, culminating with last week's ATH at 3167. As I highlighted throughout last week's analyses, even though we're in a strong uptrend, the price was too far deviated from the mean, making a correction inevitable. ✅ Friday Recap: After testing the resistance zone formed at 3135-3140, Gold dropped hard, closing the week 1000 pips lower from its peak during Friday's session. 📉 Recent Developments: The correction continued yesterday, with Gold recently touching an important confluence support around 2950. 📈 What's Next? I expect an upward movement and resumption of the uptrend, with targets at: • 3050 zone 📌 • 3080 zone 📌 🎯 Plan: Buy dips near support, aiming for the mentioned targets. The analysis would be negated if we see a clear break below 2950. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
Fundamental support remains stable, GOLD is losing some elementsIn the Asian trading session on Tuesday (April 8), spot OANDA:XAUUSD recovered in the short term after a sharp decline in the previous trading day. Gold prices just touched $3,000/ounce, having increased by nearly $20 during the day. Concerns about the escalation of the trade war have increased the risk-off sentiment in the market. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will not suspend the policy of "reciprocal tariffs", although many trading partners want to avoid them According to a statement posted on the website of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce made a statement on the US threat to increase tariffs on China. The statement pointed out that China noted that on April 7 Eastern time, the US threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US escalates the tariff measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to protect its own rights and interests. The US threat to increase tariffs on China is a mistake that has been compounded, once again exposing the US's blackmailing nature. China will never accept this. If the US insists on pursuing its own way, China will fight to the end. Such statements usually boost the market's risk-off sentiment, contributing to a short-term recovery in gold prices. Gold is a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. Last Thursday, gold hit an all-time high of $3,167.57/oz, driven largely by geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank buying. And the gold market remains exposed to significant volatility in the short term, with a number of potential fundamental surprises, most of which are likely to support price gains. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is struggling to maintain its price action within the main price channel, however, the recovery momentum is also limited by the $3,000 price level which is currently acting as the nearest resistance. For now, gold is losing important support at the EMA21 and now the EMA21 has become a resistance level. For gold to have the conditions for a bullish possibility, gold needs to bring the price action back above the $3,000 level, then the target is $3,019 and maintain above this level. The relative strength index RSI has some minor reaction at 50, which is considered a momentum support level on the RSI tool. But the signal is not significant. Overall, the expectation for gold is to resume the uptrend but at the time of writing, the conditions are not yet sufficient. Meanwhile, a drop below $2,956 would bring the risk of further declines with the next target around $2,927 in the short term. In the day, the notable technical positions will be listed as follows. Support: $2,956 – $2,954 – $2,927 Resistance: $3,019 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3064 - 3062⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3068 →Take Profit 1 3056 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3050 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2932 - 2934⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2928 →Take Profit 1 2930 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2936
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Xayah_trading
WHY XAUUSD IS BULLISH ?? TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALSXAUUSD is currently trading around the key psychological level of 3000, and as expected, price action has just completed a textbook retest of the previous breakout zone. The support level near 2960–2980 has held strongly, giving gold the momentum it needs for the next leg up. Price has reacted with a clear bullish bounce from this demand zone, confirming the structure and setting up for a potential continuation toward the 3100 target. From a technical perspective, we’re seeing a classic bullish continuation move. The previous impulse to the upside was followed by a correction phase, which respected the support area now acting as a launchpad. This bounce, combined with strong candle formations on the 12H and daily charts, suggests bulls are regaining control. Volume is gradually increasing, aligning with the anticipated breakout from the recent consolidation. On the fundamentals side, the gold market remains well-supported. Recent macroeconomic data shows inflationary pressures are still lingering, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in the year continue to weigh on the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions and increased central bank gold accumulation are adding further demand for safe-haven assets like gold. These drivers remain bullish catalysts as long as uncertainty stays elevated and real yields remain low. With price holding above 3000 and a strong structure in place, I expect continuation toward 3100 in the near term. This is a high-probability setup supported by both technicals and fundamentals. I’ll be closely watching for higher lows and continuation signals above 3020 for additional confirmation. Risk management remains key, but the market structure strongly favors further upside.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
8
Bulls are not of the woods, not by far1. What happened yesterday? In my weekend analysis covering US indices , I mentioned that US500 (SP500) could drop and test the ascending trend line starting back at the pandemic low. This line is confluent with the horizontal support level given by January 2022 ATH, offering a good opportunity for traders to open long positions. Indeed, at least on CFDs and futures, this trend line was touched, and the price rebounded strongly from there. 2. Key Question: Will we have a full V-shape recovery, or will the price drop back below 5k in the coming sessions? 3. Why I expect a continuation of the correction: 🔸 Strong Resistance: The US500 has established a robust ceiling around the 5350-5400 zone(also a gap there) 🔸 Lack of Building Momentum on Support: There's no clear indication that this resistance will be broken anytime soon with the lack of accumulation under 5k 🔸 Potential for Further Decline: Given the current market structure, a drop below 5k remains a realistic possibility in the upcoming sessions. 4. Trading Plan: 🎯 My Strategy: Playing the range. ✅ Buy near the 4800 support. ✅ Sell into the resistance zone between 5350 and 5400. 5. Conclusion: I’m watching for market confirmations and will continue applying this range strategy until there’s a clear directional change. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:US500
by Mihai_Iacob
Trump is controlling the world marketFear gripped global markets earlier this week as major economies clashed over tariffs that threatened to push the United States and the world into recession. Donald Trump said on Sunday that the United States was taking “medicine” to cure its trade “disease.” But the pressure on the Trump administration is growing as Americans’ investment and retirement accounts have plummeted. Even Trump’s staunchest supporters, including Sen. Ted Cruz, Rep. Mitch McConnell and Elon Musk, have begun to voice concerns. JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the tariffs would push up commodity prices and slow economic growth, potentially leading to “stagflation.” The market is currently pricing in five rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, totaling 1.25%. Many investors believe the Fed could make an emergency rate cut before its next policy meeting. Technically, despite the weakness in gold prices, buyers still have the technical advantage in the short term. The overnight rebound suggests that sellers may be exhausted. The buyers’ target is to close above the resistance level of $3,201.60/ounce (the contract high). On the other hand, sellers want to push prices below the support level of $2,950/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
NIKKEI Long From A Massive Support! Buy! Hello,Traders! NIKKEI stock index has Lost almost 27% from the ATH Which means it is clearly oversold And the index is about to retest A massive horizontal support level Of 30,000 which is a great spot For going long on the index And even if the support gets Broken I would still hold the Position expecting a rebound Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TVC:NI225Long
by TopTradingSignals
2
GOLD Will Go UP! Buy! Hello,Traders! GOLD made a nice correction Of almost 7% on the general Panic over the trade wars which Gives us a great opportunity To jump into Gold with a discount From a nice horizontal support Level of 2945$ from where We will be expecting a Further bullish move up Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TopTradingSignals
2
Crude Oil: Volatility and Key Levels in FocusThe Crude Oil (CL1!) chart shows a recent phase of high volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a recovery attempt. After reaching the recent high around 80.77, the price underwent a significant correction, returning to the key support zone between 60.97 and 62.43. This price range represents an important accumulation level, previously tested multiple times in recent months and defended by buyers. From a technical perspective, the area between 65.27 and 69.00 represents a dynamic resistance zone, whose breakout could pave the way for a recovery towards the critical 73.00 area. However, the recent bearish impulse has pressured lower levels, and a weekly close below 60.97 could indicate a structural trend change, with potential bearish targets around 57.00. The RSI is currently in an oversold zone, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a technical rebound attempt. However, selling pressure remains high, and sentiment is negative, partly driven by global economic uncertainties and concerns about oil demand. From an operational perspective, a move back above 65.27 could indicate a recovery phase, with targets at 69.00 and subsequently 73.00. Conversely, a break below 60.97 would open negative scenarios with a possible extension towards the lower support at 57.00. Investors remain focused on macroeconomic data and OPEC+ decisions, as potential production cuts could trigger a new rally, while an unfavorable macro environment could increase selling pressure.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD dropped dramatically then recovered in the short termOANDA:XAUUSD saw a short-term spike during the Asian trading session on Monday (April 7). The price of gold recovered to reach around $3,053/ounce, up $83 from the intraday low of $2,970.47/ounce reached earlier. OANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply after the Asian open on Monday, with gold also falling sharply as equity markets suffered a sharp sell-off. While gold typically benefits from periods of volatility, it is more prone to sell-offs during periods of high volatility, with investors likely to sell gold to cover losses elsewhere. The stock market sell-off has prompted investors to cover their losses. However, rising trade wars and geopolitical risks could boost safe-haven demand, supporting gold prices. Trump Makes Shocking Claim About Stock Market Crash: "Sometimes You Have to Take Medicine" When asked about the stock market crash, US President Trump said on Sunday local time, "Sometimes you have to take medicine." After plunging on Thursday and Friday last week, global stock markets continued to fall on Monday, creating the worst three-day losing streak in history. “I don’t want anything to happen, but sometimes you have to take medicine to solve the problem,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One, speaking about the economic impact of his sweeping tariffs. “I can’t tell you what’s going to happen in the markets,” Trump said. “But our country is stronger.” According to Reuters, Trump gave no indication that he would abandon the tariff plan during his speech. Trump also said he did not intentionally orchestrate the market sell-off. “No, it wasn’t that,” he said. Last Friday, Trump reposted a video on his social media platform in response to the stock market crash. The video opens with the assertion: “Trump is causing the stock market crash… but he’s doing it on purpose.” Trump’s “No, he’s not” comment came hours after his economic advisers said in a Sunday television interview that the market should not expect to be rescued from the tariff-driven sell-off. The Stock Market as well as the Gold Market are now directly piloted by Captain Trump, so keeping an eye on Trump is essential for any trader. One comment can also break all the technical structures, and we cannot trade the market without knowing what is happening in the market. The market is 50%, the rest is now Trump and a part of the FED along with trade and geopolitical developments. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, after the gold price fell, it received support from the lower edge of the price channel, an important position of the current main uptrend. And the recovery brought the gold price back above the EMA21 level, however, the upside momentum is also limited by the technical level of 3,056USD, pay attention to readers in the weekly publication. In terms of momentum, the Relative Strength Index RSI approached the level of 50, which is considered a support position for the RSI and the RSI bending upwards will be considered a positive signal for the bullish recovery momentum. During the day, the technical uptrend of the gold price is still dominant with the price channel as the main trend and the notable positions will be listed as follows. Support: 3,019 - 3,000 - around the lower edge of the channel Resistance: 3,056USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3093 - 3091⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 3097 →Take Profit 1 3085 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3079 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3001 - 3003⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2997 →Take Profit 1 3009 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3015
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1