USD/JPY: US Elections and Middle East War!USD/JPY fell towards 152.00 after reaching a 12-week high near 153.20, due to a temporary correction in the US Dollar (USD), which saw the Dollar Index (DXY) dip to 104.20. Despite this, the Dollar's outlook remains bullish, supported by positive economic data such as the October US services PMI, which exceeded expectations with an expansion to 55.3. Political uncertainty and the upcoming US presidential elections further enhance the Dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency. In Japan, the cautious statements from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, who indicated a gradual approach to assessing inflation, suggest that further rate hikes are unlikely in the near term. This divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan continues to support a bullish trend for USD/JPY, with the current correction seen as temporary.
Signals
TESLA Have today's upbeat earnings erased the Robotaxi disaster?Tesla (TSLA) reported yesterday third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and said it expects to achieve "slight" growth in deliveries this year. This was enough to send the price in an after-market frenzy and so far in-session rising almost by +20%.
In fact, Tesla's market cap has increased by $126B today, the largest single day jump ever! Those earnings may prove to be pivotal for the automaker as they come just a few days after the Robotaxi event, which the market considered disappointing.
So can those earnings result be enough to reverse Tesla's fortunes, which has been massively underperforming relative to (particularly) the rest of the Magnificent 7? Well this can be answered through a technical perspective, with a chart that we published more than 2 months ago (August 15, see chart below):
That was Tesla's Channel Up since the January 06 2023 market bottom on the 1W time-frame, where we caught a buy just after the August 2024 Low. We projected that to be halfway through the new long-term Bullish Leg of the Channel. The recent October correction can be viewed as the April 24 2023 2nd wave of the mid-term pull-back of the Bullish Leg.
On the current analysis we view the same pattern but on the 1D time-frame, where the 1D MACD in particular excels at illustrating the identical nature of the two Bullish Legs price actions.
Right now the MACD is forming the 2nd clean Bullish Cross under the Lower Highs belt, a formation which on May 04 2023 turned out to be the confirmation that started the 2nd phase of the Bullish Leg that completed a +195% rise from the January 2023 bottom.
As a result, not only do we expect the stock to reach Resistance 1 (299.50), which is the July 19 2023 High before the year ends but also test Resistance 2 (385.00), which is the April 05 2022 High by January 2025.
Our Target long-term remains a straight up $380.00 as we pointed out those months back.
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NZDUSD H1The New Zealand dollar against the US dollar is still trending downwards, but we notice a slow decline, which requires a return of positivity. Accordingly, after receiving a price action signal, we look forward to buying from levels 0.5973
With first targets: 0.60852
Second target: 0.61214
Third target: 0.61967
The stop is the closing of an hourly candle below levels: 0.59446
Don't forget to take a buy price action
OANDA:NZDUSD
NZDUSD: Bearish Rally Continues 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD may keep falling after a release of US fundamentals.
As a confirmation, I see a breakout of a support line of a bearish
flag pattern after a test of a key resistance level.
The price will most likely reach 0.6 level soon.
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DXY: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.301
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
SILVER: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily SILVER prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 34.36554$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
NAS100USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 20,274.5.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 20,102.3.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USOIL Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 71.32.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 75.37 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD Will Go Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.079.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.071 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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AUDUSD Will Go Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDUSD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 0.665.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 0.672 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPCHF: Bullish Movement After News 🇬🇧🇨🇭
The release of the morning's UK fundamentals looks very bullish for GBPCHF.
The price nicely respected an intraday horizontal support
and formed a double bottom pattern on that.
The closest strong resistance is a falling trend line on an hourly,
with a high probability, it will be reached soon.
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COCA COLA bottomed. Get ready for a +20% rally.Last time we looked at the Coca-Cola Company (KO) was at the end of the previous year (December 07 2023, see chart below), giving a buy signal, which eventually hit our $62.00 Target, even though it had to take longer than we expected:
This time, the price action is giving us yet again a very strong buy signal as the price rebounded yesterday exactly on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of the 1-year Channel. At the same time, so did the 1W RSI, reversing upwards below its MA level, consistent with the previous two bottoms of April 12 2024 and October 06 2023.
Based on the lowest rally we had within this Channel, we expect Coca Cola to rise by at least +19.45%, setting our Target at $79.70.
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USDSEK The most 'neat' sell you can take!The USDSEK pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the May 01 2024 High. The price has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the September 27 Lower Low and right now the price is just a step before testing the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
At the same time, the 1D RSI touched the 70.00 overbought barrier and turned sideways for the past week. This is a bearish sign as every time it did so since April 30, the Channel Down had topped.
As you can see there is a high degree of symmetry within this Channel and we expect the new Bearish Leg that will start to follow the same parameters. The previous ones bottomed after around -7.00% declines and on the -0.236 Fib extension.
As a result our sell Target as of today is 9.90500 (above the -0.236 Fib on less than -6.89% decline).
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FTSE Bullish break-out taking place. Target 8650.Almost 2 months ago (August 30, see chart below) we called for a rejection of FTSE 100 (UK100) back to the Symmetrical Support Zone (SSZ), where our next buy entry would be:
As you can see, the price action duly delivered and the price has been gradually rising off the SSZ to the point where last week it broke above the Lower Highs trend-line. The 1W RSI is also about to make a bullish break-out above its own Channel Down.
We have seen this kind of pattern during the previous two Bullish Legs since late 2022. Every time they broke above the Resistance Zone, the price peaked around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. As a resut, our new long-term Target is 8650.
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XAUUSD: Exiting the uptrend channel !Latest gold price forecast today October 24, 2024:
Gold information:
World gold prices fell sharply today due to pressure from the increase in the USD and US Treasury bond yields. Specifically, the US Dollar Index increased by 0.3% to nearly a 3-month high, which put pressure on gold prices. US bond yields also increased to a 3-month high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
Although gold prices have decreased, experts are still optimistic because the uncertainties related to the US election along with the increasing debt burden in this country are also making investors worried and looking to gold as a safe haven for cash flow.
Conclusion:
This has caused gold to continuously conquer records and has increased by more than 31% this year. With this momentum, gold is one of the best investment channels in 2024.
Ben's personal comment:
On most timeframes, gold price is still well supported, creating a good recovery momentum from the support level of 2408 and now 2723 dollars. The recovery is likely to continue in the coming time with targets of 2733 - 2739 respectively, before any further correction in the main trend.
Gold setup:
Buy entry: 2721 - 2717
SL: 2713
TP: 2733 - 2739
Sell entry: 2733 - 2735 - 2737 - 2739
SL: 2743
TP: 2714 - 2708
Not hurry up with a new longMorning folks,
So, Monday's setup is done perfect, we've got long entry around 66K support area as we've planned. But next step currently is not evident.
The point is that the retracement starts across the board - DXY, FX, Gold, Bonds etc... BTC in recent few weeks had a bit special performance. And mostly it was moving higher on D. Trump crypto programme.
Currently we wouldn't hurry up with a new long entry. Those who bought around 66K could keep positions with breakeven stops.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
GASOLINE Bottom confirmed. 3-month rally ahead.Gasoline (RB1!) formed a confirmed technical bottom on the 3.5-year Support Zone and the Lower Lows of the Falling Wedge. At the same time, the 1W RSI bounced from oversold territory (below 30.00) back above its MA trend-line, confirming a bullish reversal.
The previous Lower Lows bottom reached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result we remain committed to our long-term Target of 2.600 (below also the Lower Highs trend-line), which we expect to get hit within the next 3 months.
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BITCOIN This 1D Golden Cross can push it to the ATH ($73800).Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is ahead of a major bullish formation as most likely by next Monday, it will form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first such formation since October 29 2023. As we've analyzed before, it is no coincidence that exactly 1 year later a new 1D Golden Cross emerges as seasonality and long-term Cycles play a pivotal role for BTC.
On top of that, the price made a major re-test (and so far bounce) at the top of the former Channel Down that broke upwards last week. If this re-test holds, it is the best short-term signal for a new High. In fact the price has been making Higher Highs since the August 05 bottom, forming a double Channel Up pattern, and those Higher Highs are the reason why the market got behind this rally and supported it to break above the 7-month Channel Down.
So the Higher Highs along with the 1D Golden Cross are the bullish combination that the market needs to look (much) higher. The first technical target now is naturally the 73800 All Time High (ATH). It is very possible to see it get tested by the election day.
But what do you think? Do you expect the ATH to break aggressively after the elections, just like the October 2023 1D Golden Cross did? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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