Gold Bearish Trend Analysis: New Bottom May Be FormingWelcome to all gold traders!
After a volatile week with a series of news, today's gold price has gradually shown a downward trend. At this time, gold is fluctuating around the 2670 threshold and has not yet found the momentum to escape the downward trend.
Many people must be wondering: Why did the gold price drop so sharply?
Regarding the international market situation:
The main reason for the recent gold sell-off is the strengthening of the USD, which increased sharply after a series of remarkable economic news. In particular, bond yields increased due to concerns about new tax policies and tax cuts that could push inflation back. Investors reacted to the possibility that the Fed would maintain tightening policies for longer, putting great pressure on gold prices.
Gold Technical Analysis and Forecast:
On the technical chart, gold has broken below both the 34-day and 89-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which is a clear signal that the downtrend could continue.
Currently, gold is hovering around the support level of 2665, while the nearest resistance level is at 2680. If the support level of 2665 is broken, there is a high possibility that gold will continue to fall to lower levels, such as the bottom of 2643 and even deeper.
Signals
GOLD Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 2,664.030.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 2,633.716 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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DXY Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY keeps growing in a
Strong uptrend and the
Index is locally overbought
So after it hits a horizontal
Resistance of 106.500
A local bearish correction
Is to be expected
Sell!
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USDJPY Will Go Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 153.692.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 157.722 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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The downtrend of GOLD is still dominantUnder pressure from the strengthening of the US Dollar TVC:DXY and as markets digest the potential impact of Donald Trump's victory on US interest rate expectations, OANDA:XAUUSD fell again on Friday (November 8) after recovering. Biggest weekly drop in months.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but said it would adopt a cautious strategy for further cuts. Trump's victory has raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more slowly and in smaller amounts because of the former president's tariff policies.
However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the election results would have no "short-term" impact on monetary policy. So far this year, expectations of a half-basis-point interest rate cut starting in September have supported gold's record recovery.
Although OANDA:XAUUSD considered a safe haven from inflation but a possibility for higher interest rates has reduced the appeal of non-yielding gold.
Due to Trump's tariff policy, his election has led to market speculation that the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could be smaller and slower.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide advance guidance on monetary policy and left options open at future meetings. He emphasized that because the economy is strong, the Fed can take its time lowering interest rates.
Powell acknowledged that even after Thursday's rate cut, policy remains limited as officials aim to lower interest rates to neutral levels.
In terms of Friday's economic data, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed US consumer confidence rose to a seven-month high in early November and an index measuring US expectations Households on the future rose to their highest level in more than three months.
Specific data shows that the initial value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States increased to 73.0 in November, much higher than the previous value of 70.5 and expectations of the market is 71.0.
Additionally, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's expectations index in the US rose to 78.5 in November, the highest since mid-2021.
These surveys were conducted between October 22 and November 4, before Mr. Trump was elected president of the United States.
Overall assessment of the current fundamental picture is that Gold is suffering from two main impacts as President Trump is likely to boost the USD due to his tariff policies and economic trends, this is not true. Gold's correlation with the US Dollar is beneficial. On the other hand, gold is supported by the Fed's interest rate trend, and the market's expectations of continued interest rate cuts.
However, in the short term, with Trump newly re-elected, the need to create an impression may dim the market's attention to the Fed and gold will be under more pressure from the USD's potential.
According to official data released last Thursday, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) chain of stopping gold purchases extended to the sixth month in October.
China's gold reserves reached 2,063.84 tons at the end of last month. However, the value of this gold reserve has increased thanks to the continuous increase in gold prices. As of September 30, the value of the country's gold reserves had increased to $191.47 billion, up from $182.98 billion at the end of August.
About this week's economic calendar
Next week's economic calendar is relatively light, with major economic news events including US core October CPI data on Wednesday, PPI report on Thursday and data on claims weekly unemployment claims as well as US retail sales data on Friday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will also speak on Thursday, his first opportunity to comment on the incoming administration and central bank independence. These events will be the focus of market participants and could have an impact on the gold market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold stopped recovering after reaching EMA21, the most recent key resistance level noted by readers in previous editions.
Currently, the weakening momentum is also limited with the closing position still above the $2,684 technical point which is the nearest horizontal support and then the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the downward momentum is limited, in general the trend and technical conditions are still leaning towards the possibility of a decrease in price with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and important resistance at EMA21, on the other hand, The relative strength index (RSI) is also bending downward from the 50 area, showing signs that there is still ample room for price decline ahead.
Judging from the technical chart, gold tends to decline in price and notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2721 - 2719⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2725
→Take Profit 1 2714
↨
→Take Profit 2 2709
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2639 - 2641⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2635
→Take Profit 1 2646
↨
→Take Profit 2 2651
ARTYFACT Great Growth Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
ATRYFACT has made a
Powerful rebound from the
Massive horizontal support
Level of 0.3223 and already
Made more than 80% in gains
But this is not a limit as
We are bullish biased due to
A confluence of the technical
And fundamental factors
Such as the news that the
Coin will be present in Epic Games,
XBOX and PlayStation stores
So we will be expecting further
Growth with the resistance level
Around 1.4000 being the next target!
Buy!
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EURUSD: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.06244
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EUR/USD: Bears Dominate!The EUR/USD pair remained under bearish pressure for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.0720 during Monday’s Asian trading hours. The pair was weighed down by a stronger US dollar and political uncertainty in Germany.
As seen on the 1-hour chart, the technical outlook favors continued downside momentum, with a potential target towards support around 1.0688. A rejection of the 1.0742 resistance could confirm this bearish move, creating an opportunity for short positions.
EURUSD The sell-off isn't over yet.The EURUSD pair is extending the sharp sell-off after the most recent bearish signal upon the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejection. This is practically the same sideways Zones we talked about almost a month ago (October 14, see chart below):
The price broke below the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line that was the last 'hope' for a bullish reversal and should now extend the bearish trend even lower. The 1D MA100 rejection was also a rejection on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and as you can see this is identical to the August 31 2023 rejection. That was half-way through a Channel Down (also starting from the Resistance Zone) that eventually targeted the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we remain bearish on this pair, targeting 1.05300 (Fib 1.236 extension), unless the 1D RSI hits 25.00 (oversold), in which case take profit regardless, as this RSI reading preceded the October 03 2023 bottom.
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BTCUSDT Technical AnalysisCurrently, BTCUSDT is trading around 81,113 USDT, with a slight bullish bias. On the chart, we can see the 34-day (purple line) and 89-day (orange line) exponential moving averages (EMAs), which act as dynamic support for the price. The price zone between 79,000 and 80,000 is marked as a strong support zone, where the price is likely to retest (pullback) before bouncing up.
If the price stays above this support zone and the 34-day EMA continues to hold, BTC is likely to recover and resume the uptrend, heading towards higher resistance levels around 82,000 – 83,000.
EUR/USD Trend: Possible Deep Drop To 1.0650?EUR/USD remains under pressure and fell to 1.0750 after Thursday’s rally. The main reason for the decline is the recovery of the US dollar and the cautious sentiment weighing on the pair as traders digest Trump’s victory and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements.
I am currently monitoring EUR/USD on the 1-hour time frame and I see clear bearish signs. In particular, after peaking at 1.08260, the price fell sharply, breaking the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 1.07545 and 1.07376. Additionally, the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are pointing to a bearish trend as the short-term moving average (EMA 34) is below the long-term moving average (EMA 89). This is a signal that sellers are in control of the market. If price continues to sustain below the 1.07100 - 1.06830 support zone, I expect the pair to drop to deeper support around 1.0600.
XAUUSD: The Downtrend Is Not Over YetDear Traders!
Today, gold prices fell sharply, ending the week at $2,684, recording a decrease of 0.83%. The rising US dollar, fueled by political uncertainty, put a lot of downward pressure on gold. The shift of investors to riskier assets added to the selling pressure on gold in the market, reinforcing the bearish trend.
Analysis of the 4-hour chart shows that gold prices are currently facing resistance at the important resistance zone of $2,700 - $2,715. The 34 EMA has crossed below the 89 EMA, a sign that sellers are in control. If the price fails to break through this resistance zone and continues to be under pressure, gold is likely to find support at $2,640 - $2,656. In the event that the price drops below $2,640, the short-term bearish outlook will become stronger, with a deeper target in the near term.
Alikze »» Link | Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: Scenario wave 1 of 3 rising - 1D
- It has been moving in a downward channel on the daily time frame.
- Currently, with the failure of the descending channel, in the case of a pullback to the ceiling of the channel or the range of 12.50, it can have the target of 16 to 17 dollars in the first step.
- This ascending wave is the previous wave. But in a longer-term perspective, wave 2 correction in the green box range has ended.
- Therefore, this recent motivational wave, micro-waves, wave 1 out of 3 is rising.
💎 In addition, this increasing wave can continue to climb up to Fibo 1.272 and 1.618 if the supply zone is broken.
⚠️ Note: If the candlestick closes below the 12.50 zone, the bullish scenario is invalidated and can retest the green box zone. ⚠️
💎 Currently, according to the momentum, the first scenario or the bullish scenario is more likely.
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BINANCE:LINKUSDT
85-88K is the next oneMorning folks,
So, BTC has made a historical breakout. But for those who read our monthly report it is not a surprise. This is long term game and the pumping process is just starting. If you want to know what is really going on - you could read it.
Meantime, we consider 85-88K as the next upside target. If BTC will show pullback prior it will reach it, then 73K seems like interesting level to consider for long entry. If pullback will start after 85-88K will be completed - then do not hurry up with position taking as retracement might be deeper.
We do not consider any short positions for now.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
BITCOIN Is Going Up! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for BITCOIN.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 76,455.27.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 78,368.39.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 11 - Nov 15]Last week, after opening at 2,738 USD/oz, gold prices increased slightly to 2,749 USD/oz, but then dropped sharply to 2,643 USD/oz after Donald Trump announced his re-election as President. America. In the next trading session, gold price recovered to 2,710 USD/oz when the FED announced to continue cutting interest rates by 0.25%. However, the recovery momentum of gold prices was not sustainable, gold prices quickly dropped to 2,680 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,684 USD/oz.
The reason why Donald Trump's re-election as US President caused gold prices to plummet is because: First, investors expect that Mr. Trump will be able to intervene soon to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, tension on the Korean peninsula,... Because during his first term, Mr. Trump almost did not let any fierce fighting occur. This will reduce the haven role of gold in the eyes of investors.
Second, during the election campaign, Mr. Trump pledged to impose a 60% tax on goods imported from China and impose a 20% tax on goods imported from other countries. If Mr. Trump carries out this commitment, it will push up the prices of US consumer goods, causing inflationary pressures to return, forcing the FED to raise interest rates, helping the USD increase sharply compared to other major currencies, causing Gold price dropped sharply.
Mr. Trump's victory may continue to have a negative impact on gold prices in the short term, but this impact may gradually decrease, because Mr. Trump will officially take office early next year. Therefore, US economic data may receive more attention from investors because it directly impacts the prospect of cutting interest rates by the FED.
This week's economic calendar is quite bleak, especially when compared to this week's major events. The main economic news and events to monitor will be CPI, PPI, October retail sales, and US weekly unemployment benefit claims data. In addition, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech next Thursday.
📌From a technical perspective, on the H4 chart, the price of gold is forming a head and shoulders pattern, however, confirmation is needed when the 2642 support zone is broken. If this price model is true, the gold price may drop to an area approaching 2,530 USD/oz. In the opposite case, the gold price will still maintain its upward momentum if the price trades above the 2710 threshold, and at the same time breaks through the peak level at 2,790 USD/oz.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,668 – 2,640USD
Resistance: 2,697 – 2,700 – 2,710USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2751 - 2749⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2599 - 2601⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595
GILD Gilead Sciences Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GILD Gilead Sciences prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 89usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.91.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Bitcoin touches $ 76,000 - next?Bitcoin (BTC) continues to capture investors’ attention as it maintains a stable upward trend. Currently trading around $76,226, BTC has seen a 1.96% increase in recent sessions. This growth is supported by positive technical indicators and a favorable market environment, leading many investors to believe Bitcoin could reach the $80,000 mark in the near term. But what are the key factors influencing BTC’s price, and what strategies are suitable in this current market context?
News Impacting BTC's Price
Growth in the U.S. Stock Market: Following Donald Trump’s recent election victory, the U.S. stock market has surged, fostering a positive investor sentiment. This optimistic outlook has spilled over into the crypto market, with Bitcoin benefiting from an influx of enthusiastic investments.
Increased Institutional Interest: Large financial institutions are continuously pouring capital into Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and a diversification asset. These organizations see Bitcoin as part of their defensive strategy against inflation, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum.
BTCUSD’s New Prospects
BTCUSD's technical chart indicates promising growth potential, especially if the price sustains above key Fibonacci support levels. Investors should closely monitor the Support 1 zone and the $77,003 resistance level to seize opportunities when the trend is confirmed. If BTCUSD breaks through this resistance, it could continue its rally toward the $82,078 area, offering an attractive profit opportunity.
USD/JPY: Should We Continue to "Buy" Following the Trend?Today, USD/JPY continued its remarkable rally, reaching 153.63 with a 0.67% increase on the day. This is an important step as the USD regains strength, while the JPY weakens due to political instability in Japan.
Notably, the bullish trend remains intact with two stable EMAs below the candlestick chart, reinforcing the bullish momentum of this currency pair. Personally, Ben, recommends continuing to prioritize the "buy" strategy following the current trend.
What do you think about the future of USD/JPY? Will the price continue to rise or is there a possibility of a bearish reversal? Share your thoughts and trading strategies!
BTCUSDT Explodes After Trump's Victory – Target 100,000 USDT?Dear traders! 🐂
So Trump has won by a landslide, and BTCUSDT has quickly surged to around 75,000 USDT!
Moreover, with the extremely potential "cup and handle" pattern and the signal from the EMA 34/89 reinforcing the buyers, the uptrend is still very strong.
Therefore, if BTC maintains above the support zone, the next explosion could push the price up to 100,000 USDT!
What do you think about this common view?
Overcoming resistance, Bitcoin faces the risk of discountBitcoin (BTC) has adjusted after a recent strong increase, currently trading around US $ 76,300, down 0.27% in the day.
On the 4 -hour chart, although the increasing trend is still supported and parallel price channels have been broken, there are signs that show a potential peak about 77,000. The current support level is about 74,727 USD. If this level is surpassed, it can cause BTC to decrease deeper, capable of reaching $ 72,646.