S&P500 1D MA200 hit after 16 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a multi-year Channel Up since the October 12 2022 market bottom and hit yesterday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 16 months (since November 01 2023).
This is naturally an excellent technical buy entry for the long-term on this structure but is also a Higher Low for the Channel Up. At the same time, the 1D RSI has almost reached its oversold barrier (30.00), which during those 2.5 years has offered the 5 most optimal buy signals.
Given that each rally after such Higher Low has been -4% weaker than the previous, we can expect the one that is about to begin to be +20% (-4% less than the previous one of +24%). As a result, our new long-term Target is 6900.
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Signals
EURUSD Channel Up testing 1D MA200 after 4 months!The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the January 13 Low and after the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) bounce, the current Bullish Leg is testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is the first 1D MA200 test since November 06 2024 and happens to be at the top of the Channel Up with the 1D RSI almost overbought (70.00). These conditions create a low risk opportunity for a short-term Sell. Our Target is the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1D MA50 at 1.04500.
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US500 Will Move Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 5,819.9.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 5,578.2 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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ETHUSD Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for ETHUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 2,237.6.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 2,552.5 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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GBPUSD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for GBPUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.283.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.276 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURJPY Is Going Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 160.068.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 163.150.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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BITCOIN Like a well tuned Swiss clock...Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has had a red February with a correction that touched its 1D MA200 and almost hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), spurring massive liquidations and ETF outflows. On the wider picture though and the long-term technical trend of this Cycle, this looks nothing more than a normal technical pull-back at the start of the last year of the Bull Cycle.
More specifically, since the start of the current Bull Cycle following the November 2022 market bottom, BTC has been replicating to almost perfection the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle. As this chart on the 1W time-frame shows, every medium-term top and bottom since July 2023, matches harmonically the tops and bottoms since July 2015.
In addition, the 1W RSI is now on its 2nd bottom of the 'Buy the dip Volatility Phase', which started after the Higher Lows trend-line that was initiated on the market bottom, peaked and turned sideways. In 2016 - 2017, that was the ultimate guide to buy low through Bitcoin's last year of Bull Cycle all the way to the Top.
Based on this analogy, BTC should now form a Channel Up that might form the next Higher High in June, pull-back in July, then new Higher High in August, pull-back in September and final push for a Cycle Top around November. Based on this pattern, this may very well be around $200k but again, a 1W RSI top sell signal is more fitting.
But do you think the market will continue replicating the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle all the way to the top? And if yes, is a $200k peak plausible? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Lingrid | GOLD climbs Above 2900 Mark. Potential LongOANDA:XAUUSD market has broken above the key level of 2900 and is heading toward higher highs. Looking back, we can see that it previously consolidated around this level, suggesting that the price may move sideways in this zone, forming a range. It appears that the price is positioned to retest the area above the double top and potentially previous month high. I think the price may revisit the resistance zone of 2940-2950. I expect it to break through the upper boundary of the channel and retest the middle of the consolidation zone. My goal is resistance zone around 2942
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
XAUUSD 4HR Analysis | What's Next For Gold ? The gold market is currently trading within a long-term ascending bullish channel, respecting dynamic trend lines that act as both support and resistance. This market structure shows a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the overall trend remains bullish.
Key Observations:
Market Structure & Trend Analysis:
- The price has been following a well-defined bullish trend while respecting key trendlines.
- An inner bearish channel has emerged, contributing to short-term pullbacks, but the overall trend remains intact as price continues bouncing off support levels.
- The all-time high (ATH) resistance area has acted as a strong supply zone, where sellers have stepped in multiple times.
Volume & Corrections:
- The chart highlights multiple volume-based corrections, where price pullbacks have occurred with increased selling pressure.
- These corrections align with dynamic support and resistance levels, reinforcing key pivot zones.
- After a significant drop into the key support/value area, buyers stepped in aggressively, leading to the latest bullish rebound.
EMA & Pivot Support Levels:
- The exponential moving average (EMA) trend support has played a crucial role in maintaining the bullish structure, acting as a dynamic area of interest.
- Pivot points are marked, showing where price has reacted at key levels, further validating the importance of these zones.
Quarters & Fibonacci Levels:
- The quarters theory percentages (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) are plotted, showing price reactions at these psychological levels.
- The 50% retracement level was a significant bounce area, aligning with previous demand and forming a potential higher low.
- If price sustains above this mid-level, the next targets would be the ATH resistance at 75% and potentially the 100% extension into the target zone above $3,000.
Potential Scenarios:
1. Bullish Continuation: If price holds above the key support zone and successfully reclaims the ATH resistance, we could see a breakout targeting new highs around the $3,000+ target zone.
2. Rejection & Consolidation: If price struggles at the ATH resistance, a pullback to retest the 50% retracement level or lower support zones is possible before another leg up.
3. Bearish Breakdown: If price loses its key support levels, a deeper correction could unfold, pushing price back into the lower range of the channel.
Final Outlook:
The market remains structurally bullish, with volume-based corrections providing healthy pullbacks. As long as price respects the key EMA support, Fibonacci levels, and quarters theory zones, the probability of reaching new highs remains strong. However, resistance around the ATH zone must be closely monitored for signs of either a breakout or another rejection.
What is your thoughts ? Let me know in the comments!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD VANTAGE:XAUUSD
EURAUD Bullish Continuation - Will Buyers Push Toward 1.70220?OANDA:EURAUD is currently trading within an ascending channel, maintaining a strong bullish structure. The price has broken above a key resistance zone and may now pull back for a retest. This area previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation.
If buyers confirm support at this level, the price is likely to move upward toward 1.70220, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. Conversely, a failure to hold support could signal a potential bearish shift.
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the support zone, or increased buying volume, before considering long positions.
Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have! 🚀📈
USDJPY: Consolidating below the uptrend channel!Dear Traders!
Recently, USDJPY has made a strong breakout, completely exiting the uptrend and stabilizing below a new support level, as highlighted on the 1-hour chart. The pair is currently trading around 149.20.
This stability above the new support is driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which have boosted risk-off sentiment and increased demand for the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, expectations of a BoJ rate hike and concerns over a global trade war continue to support the Japanese Yen, keeping gains limited below the lower boundary of the previous uptrend channel.
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis XAU/USD Weekly Analysis with support and resistance levels tailored between $2,800 and $3,000:
XAU/USD Weekly Analysis: March 3–7, 2025
🔹 Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a critical consolidation phase, trading between $2,800 and $3,000. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, including U.S. jobs data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical events.
🔹 Key Support Levels:
Immediate Support:
$2,835–$2,850: Critical support zone, aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
$2,800: Psychological support and a key structural level, reinforced by the 50-day SMA.
Major Support (Downside Breach Scenario):
$2,765–$2,780: Long-term trendline support from the 2024 lows.
$2,735: Key swing low; a break below here could signal a deeper bearish trend.
🔹 Key Resistance Levels:
Immediate Resistance:
$2,900–$2,920: Key consolidation range high and near-term target for bullish momentum.
$2,950: Previous week’s high and a critical barrier to further gains.
Major Resistance (Upside Breakout Scenario):
$2,975–$3,000: Psychological resistance and the upper bound of the bullish channel.
$3,075: Fibonacci 127.2% extension and a potential breakout target.
🔹 Technical Scenario Breakdown:
Bullish Case (Breakout):
Trigger: Fed dovishness or USD weakness.
Action: Break above $2,950 confirms bullish momentum.
Targets: $2,975 (psychological level), then $3,075 (breakout extension).
Bearish Case (Reversal):
Trigger: Strong USD or risk-on sentiment.
Action: Breakdown below $2,835 signals bearish shift.
Targets: $2,800 (key support), then $2,765–$2,735 (trendline and swing low).
Neutral/Range-Bound:
Range: $2,835–$2,950.
Action: Fade extremes (buy dips near $2,835, sell rallies near $2,950).
🔹 Price Action Drivers During the Week:
U.S. Jobs Data (March 7):
Weak NFP (<150k jobs) → USD sell-off → Gold rallies toward $2,950–$3,000.
Strong NFP (>250k jobs) → USD strength → Gold tests $2,835–$2,800.
Fed Commentary (March 5):
Hawkish tone → Gold pressured below $2,835.
Dovish tone → Rally toward $2,950+.
Geopolitical Surprises:
Escalations → Safe-haven surge → Gold breaches $2,975–$3,000.
De-escalations → Profit-taking → Drop to $2,800.
🔹 Technical Tools to Monitor:
RSI (14-day): Overbought above 70 indicates pullback risk; oversold below 30 signals potential rebound.
MACD: Bullish crossover above the zero line strengthens upward bias.
Volume: Confirm breakouts above $2,950 with rising volume.
📈 Summary:
Support: $2,835–$2,850 (critical), $2,800 (structural), $2,765–$2,735 (trendline).
Resistance: $2,900–$2,920 (immediate), $2,950 (key breakout), $2,975–$3,000 (psychological).
Catalysts: U.S. data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical factors remain key drivers.
USD/JPY Buys | 15M TimeframeCurrent orderflow/price action is bullish. I will be looking for price to retrace into this zone which is a 50-61.8% Fibb golden zone pullback and also would fill a 15m FVG and tap into a 15 OB. I will then scale down to the 1-5m timeframe and look for an entry if it presents itself.
Lingrid | EURJPY bullish Opportunity from DEMAND ZoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It reached the target zone. FX:EURJPY market made a false breakout of the support zone around the 156,000 level. On the daily timeframe, we can see that the price reached a demand zone it has bounced off multiple times. Recently, the price broke through the previous high in market structure, then pulled back to retest the support level and the upward trendline. I expect the price to retest the upper boundary of the channel and potentially move above it. My goal is resistance zone around 158,000
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Gold futures for April are trending upWorld gold prices continued to rise amid a weakening US dollar. The US Dollar Index – a measure of the greenback’s strength against six major currencies – fell 0.49% to 106.145 points.
Risk aversion remains high in the market due to geopolitical tensions and new tax policies. The US has just imposed tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, Canada and China. In response, these countries have also applied retaliatory measures, affecting about $1,000 billion of global trade.
China is likely to let the yuan depreciate to reduce the impact of tariffs and boost exports. If the yuan continues to weaken, many investors in China may flock to gold as a safe haven.
Asian and European stock markets are trending lower, while US stocks are also forecast to open with slight losses.
SUPPORT : 2900 , 2892
RESIST : 2930 , 2950
COIN - BUY! This is a market I looked at last week but here is why im going to be Long Term buying for this company now.
Firstly the fundamentals show that we have a very close and strong Demand zone that has already had a strong reaction, secondly this happens to be sitting near a key level that price is also respecting as a support level.
We can notice prior the Demand zone touch that we have swept Sell side Liquidity and now price is very clearly Consolidating. Except, we have had multiple reactions from this level and Elliot's now suggests that the end of that Consolidation cycle is here.
Im looking to buy in a Market order, to add confluence to my decisions this market runs off the Nas100 which is also in a key level on a very strong Bullish Trend.
Im looking for this to be a very large move with respecting the Demand and hopefully taking out Buy side Liquidity and on its way into a new Swing Range
Good luck to all the traders that Decide to follow and please message and comment any questions
Cheers
GOLD → Breaks 2881. Buyers are ready…OANDA:XAUUSD breaking through the resistance threshold of the downward trend and attempting to seek gains above the critical resistance zone of 2881. A consolidation before the breakout is forming relative to 2894, signaling potential growth on the dollar's correction foundation.
Previously, Trump confirmed the possibility of imposing 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering retaliatory measures and increasing the risk of U.S. recession. Declining PMI and Atlanta Fed's GDP led to a sell-off on Wall Street and increased demand for gold as a protective asset.
Geopolitical tensions persist as Trump suspends military aid to Ukraine, sparking European discontent. Market focus will remain on the release of detailed U.S. monthly employment information - commonly known as the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday. This crucial data will impact both USD and gold metal.
Technically, the price surpassing the 2881 resistance level divides the market into two planes. A consolidation before breakthrough is forming relative to 2895. The resistance breakthrough and price consolidation above 2895 could reinforce growth. The buyers' main focus is maintaining defensive positions above 2885 - 2895.
In the context of increasing economic risks and declining dollar, gold has every opportunity to continue its growth following the local trend change. The targets in this scenario are 2915, 2921, 2929.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
GOLD recovers, fueled by trade risks as key support Influenced by US President Trump's imposition of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and the doubling of tariffs on Chinese goods, the situation has raised fears of a global trade war. OANDA:XAUUSD found support after fresh tariff concerns and rebounded to target $2,900 and above it the momentum is waning.
Trump's tariff policy continues to boost inflation expectations while weakening economic growth expectations, and real yields continue to decline.
The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will have an important impact on the market. If data shows rising inflation, gold prices could fall as the market may reduce expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Recently, the market expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year, up from 44 basis points last week.
Trump's tariff action, which could affect nearly $2.2 trillion in annual US two-way trade with China, takes effect at 12:00 Hanoi time on Tuesday. China responded immediately by imposing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain US imports effective March 10 and imposing a series of new export restrictions on certain designated US entities, according to Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa will immediately apply a 25% tariff on $20.7 billion worth of US goods.
JPMorgan said it has a structurally long-term bullish view on gold and expects gold prices to reach $3,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Trump's tariffs are considered inflationary and have prompted many investors to move money into the safe-haven gold, which has risen more than 10% this year.
However, higher inflation in the United States could force the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer, which could reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Markets await the ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more information on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has achieved the $2,900 target gain readers noticed in previous editions since it reached support at $2,835.
Temporarily, the recovery momentum is weakening but maintaining price activity above the original price level of $2,900 is considered a positive signal for continued upside, and the next target is $2,942 in the short term, more than the all-time high of $2,956.
The interim relative strength index is also showing signs of reacting to the 61 resistance level, a continued break towards the overbought area would be a positive signal for bullish expectations in terms of momentum.
During the day, gold's price recovery prospects and notable positions will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,900 – 2,880 – 2,868USD
Resistance: 2,942 – 2,956USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2941 - 2939⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2945
→Take Profit 1 2933
↨
→Take Profit 2 2927
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2884 - 2886⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2880
→Take Profit 1 2892
↨
→Take Profit 2 2898
Gold price today: Extend the momentum!Gold prices continued their upward momentum today, hovering around the $2,910 level. The last recorded trade for gold stood at $2,928 per ounce, marking a 270-pip increase compared to early yesterday morning.
Accordingly, gold prices are currently experiencing strong impacts from USD fluctuations and US tariff policies. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump continues to raise concerns by threatening to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. These factors could determine whether gold can reach the $3,000 per ounce mark or not.
Currently, investors are awaiting the US payroll report, expected to be released at the end of this week. The report's results could influence the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FED).
On the technical chart, the precious metal has broken out of the descending price channel and made adjustments to create new highs. Bullish factors are driven by the crucial support level at 2885 and the two EMA lines at 34 and 89. All expectations are focused on gold's long-term price appreciation because any signs of US economic slowdown will support calls for Fed rate cuts and provide support for OANDA:XAUUSD .
Gold price today: Strong rebound!Dear traders!
At around 6 AM on March 4, the spot gold price stood at $2,894 per ounce, marking a $36 increase from the previous day's opening price of $2,858 per ounce.
The primary reason for this rise is the increased risk aversion among investors, driving higher demand for safe-haven assets like gold amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Over the weekend, a heated exchange between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky raised concerns that efforts to end the Ukraine-Russia military conflict could reach an impasse.
Additionally, U.S. trade tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China take effect today, March 4, sparking fears of potential financial market instability. This uncertainty has pushed many investors toward gold as a wealth preservation asset.
Meanwhile, a sudden decline in the U.S. dollar has made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. As a result, today's gold price outlook remains positive. Keep an eye on the $2,892 resistance level, as a breakout above this point could signal further upside momentum.
What are your thoughts?
EURUSD – Bullish Continuation Toward 1.05820OANDA:EURUSD has broken above a key resistance zone, which has now flipped to support, aligning with a potential bullish continuation. The recent retest of this level held successfully, indicating strong buyer interest and reinforcing the bullish outlook.
With momentum favoring the upside, the next logical target is 1.05820, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. As long as the price remains above the support, the bullish bias stays intact.