Lingrid | USDJPY potential CHANNEL Breakout. ShortFX:USDJPY is indeed forming a triangle pattern, which often indicates a period of consolidation and price squeeze before a potential breakout. The lower highs suggests ongoing selling pressure, and the price remains trapped within the triangle, moving sideways just above the channel border. Given this context, it's likely that the market could break out to the downside. Price often tends to consolidate at significant levels before making a decisive move, and it seems that the current setup is no exception. If the triangle pattern continues to hold, we could expect the price to move lower to retest the downward trendline. My goal is support level at 149.200
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Signals
GOLD recovered from $2,606, before a series of key weekly dataIn the Asian market on Wednesday (November 27), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot delivery is trading around 2,638 USD/ounce. During this trading day, investors will receive many important data such as the US PCE inflation index, which is expected to create great fluctuations in the gold market in particular and the financial market in general.
The US will release some headline data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday today (Wednesday).
On Wednesday, the US will release a series of important economic data, with US PCE inflation data expected to receive the most attention.
Today, US durable goods orders for October, last week's initial jobless claims and third-quarter real GDP data will be released.
Surveys showed the U.S. monthly initial durable goods ordering rate in October was expected to rise 0.5%, compared with a 0.7% decline the previous month.
The number of Americans filing seasonally adjusted unemployment claims for the week of November 23 is expected to be 217,000, compared with 213,000 the previous week.
Additionally, U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter is expected to grow at an annualized quarterly rate of 2.8%.
On the same day, the United States will release the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report for October. This is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation.
Surveys show that the US PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.2% monthly and 2.3% annually. Additionally, the US core PCE price index in October is expected to increase 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually.
The core PCE price index could cause a short-term market reaction, with investors expecting core PCE to rise 0.3% month-over-month in October, in line with September's gain. Data Stronger-than-expected data could boost the US Dollar in its initial reaction and drag gold prices lower. On the other hand, a level of 0.2% or lower could have the opposite impact on gold price action.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bps in December are currently at 63.1%, according to CME group's FedWatch data.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold recovered from the initial support level noted by readers in yesterday's edition at 2,606 USD and is now close to reaching the initial target resistance at 2,644 USD.
The recent decline has created a medium-term trend price channel for gold. This price channel is inclined towards the possibility of a decrease in price. Along with that, gold will also be under the current main pressure with the 21-day moving average (EMA21).
In the interim, gold still has room to recover as long as it remains above its original price point of $2,600, on the other hand if gold breaks $2,644 it could continue to recover a bit further with a target then around $2,663 The price point of the Fibonacci 0.50% is confluent with the EMA21.
However, in case gold falls below the original price point of 2,600 USD, it will be eligible for a new short-term down cycle to open, with a target of 2,591 USD in the short term, more than 2,538 USD.
During the day, gold's technical outlook leans towards price reduction along with the above recovery levels, notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,606 – 2,600USD
Resistance: 2,644 – 2,663USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2659⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2665
→Take Profit 1 2654
↨
→Take Profit 2 2649
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2579 - 2581⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2575
→Take Profit 1 2586
↨
→Take Profit 2 2591
NAS100USD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100USD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 20,946.7.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 20,451.1 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
USOIL Will Go Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 68.67.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 66.63.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EURGBP Will Move Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURGBP.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.833.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.828 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
AUDNZD Is Going Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDNZD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.111.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.108 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Breakout Signals via Asymmetrical AveragingSpecial Application of Average Bullish & Bearish Percentage Change Indicator
INDICATOR AVERAGES BULLISH AND BEARISH VOLATILITY SEPARATELY THROUGH THEIR NATIVE PAST CANDLE COUNT. NOT PERIODICALLY!
Asymmetrical averaging is a versatile technique that involves assigning different lengths for independent averaging of opposite market forces. This adaptability uncovers high-probability breakout signals by establishing a threshold that filters out irrelevant fluctuations.
Below, I illustrated 2 practical examples of the method applied to bullish and bearish breakout scenarios:
Bullish Breakout Example:
Set the bullish averaging to 30 and the bearish averaging to 1000.
If the bullish average consistently surpasses the bearish threshold, it indicates robust buying momentum and a potential breakout to the upside.
The extreme bearish average establishes a consistent baseline, filtering out short-term fluctuations and focusing on significant upward momentum to deliver reliable bullish breakout signals.
Bearish Breakout Example:
Set the bearish averaging to 30 and the bullish averaging to 1000.
If the bearish average rises above the bullish threshold, it signals growing selling pressure and a potential breakout to the downside.
The extreme bullish average provides a steady reference point, eliminating minor fluctuations and isolating significant downward momentum for dependable bearish breakout signals.
LINK TO THE INDICATOR:
Eigen/UsdtBINANCE:EIGENUSDT
🚨 **Current Price**: **3.345**
If the price holds around **3.345**, the next resistance levels could be:
💥 **3.800** – A key level to watch for potential selling pressure.
💥 **4.132** – If it breaks **3.800**, this could be the next target for upward movement.
However, if the price doesn't hold and drops, watch these support levels:
⚡ **2.500** – A possible level where the price might find some stability.
⚡ **2.433** – If it falls below **2.500**, this could be the next support zone.
📉 **Explanation**:
- If the price stays above **3.345**, it's a sign of strength, and we could see it move higher towards **3.800** and **4.132**.
- If it drops below **3.345**, the price might test those support levels, with **2.500** and **2.433** being key areas for a possible reversal.
⚠️ **Just my thoughts, not financial advice!** Always do your own research before making any decisions! 📈💡
Dollar index and strong climbsAccording to the analysis of the dollar index, it reached the pre-announced range, but in order to achieve the future goals, it needs a correction and then climbs again.
This can start after the new year and reach the target of 120 during the presidency of Donald Trump.
What do you think about this analysis?
What symbol would you like me to analyze for you?
Gold-> continue to drop to $ 2600. What will happen?Hello, dear friends, this is Ben!
Gold prices dropped to their lowest level in a week during the Asian session on Tuesday, although spot prices found some support near the $2,600 mark.
Meanwhile, the prevalent risk-on environment, coupled with bets for slower Fed rate cuts and rising U.S. Treasury yields, is driving flows out of the safe-haven XAU/USD. Theoretically, any attempt to push gold prices higher may face limitations.
Ahead, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Technically, gold is attempting to break out of the key range after testing support. If a false break occurs at the 2634 level, a minor correction towards resistance may form.
Resistance levels: 2634, 2649, 2663
Support levels: 2618, 2607, 2600
If sellers hold the price below 2630-2634, the bearish momentum could strengthen. However, as the price is testing strong support, a significant reaction could form a false breakout and a correction, potentially targeting levels like 2649-2663 (fibo 0.5), before continuing the downtrend.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
S&P500 Don't expect the rally to stop now.Our last S&P500 (SPX) analysis (November 18, see chart below) gave us the ideal buy entry on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, with the price immediately responding with a rebound:
The rebound took place on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and we are now even past the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the strong uptrend, this rally is far from over technically, as not only is the 4H RSI below the (70.00) overbought barrier where it has given the first bearish signs near the two previous Higher Highs, but also significantly lower than the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the September 06 Channel Up.
As a result we expect a continuation of the current Bullish Leg. The previous one peaked on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, so our Target is now just below it at 6150.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
WTI OIL crucial test on the 4H MA50WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) hit yesterday its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and just after it broke, the short-term correction took a pause. As long as it holds, there are higher probabilities of initiating the final rally towards the Resistance Zone. If it breaks though, we expect a test of the upper levels of the Support Zone, before the rebound.
Either way, our Target is $76.00 (the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level). This is because we believe it is replicating the September bottoming pattern, where after an initial 4H RSI Bullish Divergence (Higher Highs against Lower Lows), the price rose and got rejected back to the Support Zone, only to rebound to the 0.786 Fib of the previous High.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITCOIN rejected on the 1st real Resistance of the Bull Cycle.Yesterday's brutal Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rejection caught the majority of the market off guard. There are a few fundamental reasons, there is the exhaustion of the post-election euphoria, there is the psychological weight of the $100000 barrier. However there is one major technical reason that has gone under the radar and we'll explain it to you below.
** The Fibonacci Channel and the 0.236 Fib **
As you can see on this chart, the underlying pattern has been a Fibonacci Channel going through the last 3 Cycles (including the current one). The pattern started with a strong rebound on its bottom (green circle) that formed the December 2013 Top. That Cycle Top was on the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the Cycle and that is a level that rejected rallies during Bull Cycles on June 24 2019 and May 11 2024.
** The '1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle' **
That is the Fib trend-line that (more recently) rejected the uptrend on November 22. We can call this the '1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle' as this is the first major rejection level that a Bull Cycle faces before the eventual Top. That high during the last 2 Cycles has been on the 0.0 Fibonacci level, technically the top of the Channel (red circles). The red spot on the current Cycle in late 2025 doesn't represent a projection but is an illustration for comparison purposes.
** Top timing and the 1W MA50 **
On a side-note, it is interesting to observe that the duration of each of the past Bull Cycles has been roughly 150 weeks (1050 days) so a repeat of this pattern would give us a High towards the end of September/ early October. It is much better to try to time the High and sell that put an actual price tag on it. Equally interesting is the fact that even though BTC is on a technical rejection, the current rally started on the August 05 2024 Low, exactly on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically, as long as this trend-line holds, the cyclical bullish wave should stay intact.
But what do you think? Do you think the 0.236 Fib i.e. the '1st Real Resistance of the Bull Cycle' will extend the correction? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
XAUUSDHere is our view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for.
Since our last analysis on XAUUSD , it has followed the second scenario and dropped down to 2640 and now even lower. With this in mind, we now have again two possible scenarios. We are sitting at two important KL’s (Key Levels) and we will be sitting out until we see a clear break. It might look like a mess, but it’s pretty simple.
Scenario 1: BUYS
We broke above 2640 . That would confirm continuation buys and we would have to keep our eye out on our next KL (Key Level) 2660 .
Scenario 2: SELLS
We broke below 2604 , and are now targeting breaks of 2590 and revisits of 2550 .
Personal opition:
The direction for now is unclear until we break our mentioned key levels. Be patient and stay tuned for possible scalps on this pair. Be extremely careful if we revisit 2660.
KEY NOTES
- XAUUSD breaking above 2640 would confirm buys.
- XAUUSD failing to break above 2660 would confirm sells.
- Breaks below 2604 would result in sells, down to 2590 and 2550.
Happy trading!
FxPocket