GBP/USD : First BUY, then SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently holding the support at the 1.30700 area. I expect it to continue its upward movement. The potential targets for this analysis are 1.31130 and the range between 1.31345 to 1.31455. Also, keep an eye on the 1.31455 to 1.31760 area for a potential SELL opportunity.
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
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Signals
This XAUUSD rally still seems to have a lot of momentum.According to the World Gold Council (WGC), the weakening USD was the main factor driving the XAUUSD higher, as the Fed's big rate cut caused the USD to decline significantly.
Rising geopolitical risks with the worsening situation in the Middle East also boosted safe-haven buying.
The biggest drag on XAUUSD last month was the "momentum factor". A higher XAUUSD in the previous month tends to put downward pressure on the price in the following month and vice versa. Other gold pairs also recorded strong gains.
Safe-haven demand on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East wi, the breakout of the USD and strong economic data could have pushed gold down further, but in fact, the recent decline of gold has been relatively shallow. That shows that the buying power of the yellow metal has not ended yet.
Some other analysts said that although the price of gold has increased to 2,650 USD/ounce, the highest level in many weeks after the US announced the production index (PPI) at the end of last week, gold will still face difficulties in the coming time due to pressure from the USD and stronger bond yields.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
ASML Perhaps the most structured buy in the market!ASML Holding (ASML) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 Low. The recent September 10 2024 Low has been at the bottom of the pattern, technically forming its new Higher Low.
Yesterday it broke and closed above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 3 months, which has been a solid bullish break-out signal on both previous Bullish Legs. Those then went on huge rallies that rose by +87.94% and +91.92% respectively.
As a result, with the 1W MACD about to form the final buy confirmation with a Bullish Cross, we set a 1380 long-term Target on a minimum +87.94% rise from the bottom, that will form an ideal Higher High on the Channel Up.
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EUR/USD - looks cheap, buy the dip sort of long?Yeah, albeit the current calamity globally, EURUSD FX:EURUSD looks in a prime spot for a RSI "bounceback" type reversal.
Fundamentals are something to seriously consider, and because we're not currently under the 30 level on the daily timeframe, it's more of a wait and see scenario. Once the pair kicks that 30, I'll be buying :)
APTUSD Next pull-back will be a huge buy opportunity.Aptos (APTUSD) is about to form a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame and last time it did so (November 30 2023), it has already started the new Bullish Leg of the Rectangle it's been trading in since January 26 2023.
The Bullish Megaphone inside which the price traded at the time of the Golden Cross, gave one final pull-back before rallying aggressively towards the top. As a result, we will wait for the next buy opportunity on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), to take a lower risk buy and target 19.000.
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Technical Analysis for Numerico (NWC/USDT) + TRADE PLANTechnical Analysis for Numerico (NWC/USDT)
The price is showing a breakout potential at the top of the channel, which may signal a trend reversal.
Descending Channel Pattern:
Resistance: The upper trendline shows where the price has faced rejection multiple times. The resistance level is gradually declining.
Support: The lower trendline indicates strong support, where buyers have consistently entered the market, preventing further decline.
Breakout Potential:
The price appears to have tested the upper trendline of the channel. The arrow pointing upward suggests the possibility of a breakout above the descending resistance, which would indicate a bullish reversal.
Indicators:
Volume: A spike in volume supports the possibility of the breakout. A breakout with increased volume is generally a stronger confirmation of the trend change.
VMC Cipher B: This momentum oscillator shows a shift from negative to positive momentum, implying that the buying pressure is gaining strength.
RSI (14): The Relative Strength Index is around 58.66, indicating that momentum is neutral to slightly bullish. RSI above 50 usually signals increasing buying pressure.
Stochastic RSI: The stochastic RSI is currently in the overbought zone (91.21), which might signal some short-term correction, but the overall momentum remains strong.
HMA+ Hist: HMA (Hull Moving Average) shows that the histogram is close to zero but shifting upward, which could imply a possible change in trend direction soon.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: $0.0719 (marked by the horizontal blue line).
Resistance Zone: Around $0.0753 (upper edge of the channel).
Great Entry Point: The label indicates that a long entry is ideal around the breakout zone, with an upward arrow suggesting that this level ($0.0721) could offer a solid risk-reward ratio for buyers entering before a potential upward movement.
Trading Plan
Entry Point:
Enter the trade at the breakout above $0.0721 (highlighted as the "Great Entry Point"). If the price closes above this level on the 4-hour timeframe with significant volume, it will confirm a bullish breakout.
Stop-Loss:
Place a stop-loss slightly below the recent support of $0.0719, at approximately $0.0690, to minimize risk in case the breakout turns into a false breakout.
Profit Targets:
First Target: $0.0800 – This level aligns with a previous resistance zone and would be a conservative target for short-term traders.
Second Target: $0.0850 – If momentum remains strong, the price may continue toward this higher level of resistance, providing a larger reward.
Risk Management:
Ensure a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 2:1. For example, if the stop-loss is set at $0.0690 (risk of approximately 3%), aim for the first target at $0.0800 (a reward of approximately 10%).
Use position sizing techniques to risk only 1-2% of the portfolio per trade, to ensure long-term sustainability and avoid major losses in case of unexpected market moves.
Monitoring & Adjustments:
Watch for volume confirmation during the breakout. If the volume diminishes, consider closing the position early, as it may signal a weakening breakout.
Adjust the stop-loss to breakeven once the price hits the first profit target, ensuring a risk-free trade for the remaining portion of the position.
Conclusion:
The technical analysis for NWC/USDT suggests a bullish breakout from the descending channel pattern, with indicators supporting a potential upward move. Entering at the breakout level of $0.0721 with proper risk management offers a promising opportunity, especially with a positive shift in momentum.
NATURAL GAS on a Bearish Leg. Still a sell signal.Natural Gas (NG1!) gave us an excellent buy opportunity last time (August 29, see chart below) and easily hit our 2.900 Target:
Once it hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (blue) it formed a Lower High at the top of the Triangle pattern and got rejected. The previous Lower High rejection that started the Bearish Leg, bottomed on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Triangle on the 0.786 Fib (black trend-line).
As a result we remain bearish on NG, targeting 2.145 (0.786 Fib).
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DXY Is Going Down! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 10h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 103.181.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 102.300 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SILVER Will Fall! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 15m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 31.106.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 30.995 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDJPY Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 149.346.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 150.396 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPJPY Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPJPY.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 195.461.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 197.269.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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ZM Zoom Video Communications Potential BreakoutIf you haven`t bought ZM at the end of the giant falling wedge:
Now Zoom Video Communications (ZM) is currently showing a bullish pennant pattern, which is often a precursor to an upward breakout.
With the stock approaching the $72 level, a breakout could lead to a swift move higher, given the strong technical setup.
For speculative traders, buying the $72 strike price calls expiring this Friday at a $0.12 premium offers an appealing risk-reward ratio.
If ZM breaks above the resistance, these calls could rapidly gain value.
GBPAUD Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPAUD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 1.933.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.937 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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SILVER: Market Is Looking Down! Sell!
Welcome to our daily SILVER prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 30.98923$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
GOLD: Move Up Expected! Buy!
Welcome to our daily GOLD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 2,667.170$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 103.008
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.09284
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
XAGUSD correction towards the end of the year.Silver (XAGUSD) has made a Double Top (red circle) on October 04 near the Higher Highs trend-line of the 2-year Channel Up. Last time it did a similar Higher High was on May 05 2023, after remarkably a similar +48.50% rise, it started a correction that extended below bot the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The first stop was the 1D MA200 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and that's where our end-of-year Target is at 28.500.
Notice also the 1W MACD similarities between the two peak fractals. Also the time from bottom to top has been highly identical at 246 and 248 days respectively.
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Lingrid | USDCAD short Trade after RESISTANCE rejectionFX:USDCAD has been moving steadily upward since the beginning of October, making nine consecutive bullish days. The price has reached significant levels on both the weekly and daily timeframes. As it approaches the resistance area, it appears to be running out of steam, with the candles shrinking in size, indicating a loss of momentum. Upon zooming out, we can see that the price tanked from resistance at 1.38500 multiple times. I expect the market to form at least a short-term pullback. If we see a rejection candle, we can expect the price to move lower. However, given that today is packed with CAD news, it's possible that the market will be volatile, leading to significant wicks up and down. My goal is support level at 1.36650
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DOW JONES 15 year cheat-sheet that can make you rich!Dow Jones (DJI) is extending what seems a relentless rally since the August 05 Low, which was the most recent short-term correction, but in reality the index has been rallying very aggressively since the October 23 2023 Low.
That was when after a 3-month correction, it found Support above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 2 weeks later it reclaimed the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been supporting ever since. So basically the index has been on a 1W MA50 Support for 1 whole year!
What's more striking however and what short-term traders/ investors tend to ignore are the long-term Cycles of a financial asset. And Dow being one, is no exception. As mentioned, the 1W MA200 supported the October 23 2023 Low and in effect has been holding since October 10 2022 (so for 2 full years!), two weeks after the Inflation Crisis bottom. Since then we have been inside a Bull Phase.
This is part of a greater trading Cycle for Dow, one that started 1 year after the March 2009 market bottom of the historic Housing Crisis. As you can see, the pattern is recurring and the phases have a high symmetry and frequency among them.
First and foremost, they tend to do two Lows within a 1 year span, which is essentially the Bear Phase, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (exception was of course the Black Swan of the COVID flash crash but it is of course a non-technical irregularity event) and then rebounds, effectively starting the Bull Phase.
The first 2 Bull Phases rose by +75.80%, while the most recent by +70.80%, so we are roughly around the same strength levels. Also as far as duration is concerned, the 1st Bull Phase lasted for 1239 days (177 weeks), the 2nd for 1134 days (162 weeks) and the 3rd for 1106 days (158 weeks). Again the time element is quite similar. Notice also the similar pattern that the 1W MACD prints every time Dow enters the final part of the Bull Phase.
As a result, if we apply those dynamic conditions on the current Bull Phase, we can see that a minimum rise of +70.80% from the bottom, should peak a little over 48000, and if it last a minimum of 1106 days (158 weeks) it should come to an end and price the top by October 06 2025.
This indicates that we have at least another full year of bullish trend ahead of us and a fair Target could be 48000.
As you realize, investors who are methodically following this 15 year old cheat-sheet, know where and when to buy/ sell and that achieves investing's two main principles: Profit Maximization and Risk Management. Patience and proper management within such Cycles are what "can make you rich" indeed.
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Lingrid | WIFUSDT buy Pullback. Long from the SUPPORT zoneBINANCE:WIFUSDT has been consistently making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish sentiment on the 4H timeframe. However, the market began to pull back just below the psychological level of 3.00. Upon examining the daily chart, we can also identify a strong resistance level in this area. Consequently, I believe the market may enter a consolidation phase within the range of 2.50 to 3.00. Correction before extension. I expect the market to retrace towards the support level before moving upwards to test the liquidity above the psychological level. My target is resistance zone at 3.00
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