USOIL Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 67.592.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 71.123.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Signals
EURUSD Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.091.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.094 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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EURCAD Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURCAD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.562.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.534 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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AUDJPY Will Go Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 94.552.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 94.086 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USD-CAD Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CAD kept bouncing
Off of the horizontal support
Of 1.4355 but then it was
Finally broken and the breakout
Is Confirmed so we are locally
Bearish biased and we will be
Expecting the pair to go
Further down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
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XAU/USD: Another ATH (All Time High) Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart in the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price has finally made its big move, just as we predicted! After a correction to $2905, demand increased, pushing the price up by over 400 pips to $2949.
Currently, gold is trading around $2940, and there are two key scenarios:
1️⃣ Holding support at $2940, leading to a rise above $2950 as the first target.
2️⃣ Breaking below $2940 and stabilizing under it, which could trigger a further correction to $2923.
This analysis will be more complete with your support, and more details will be added soon!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
NASDAQ Most critical 4H MA50 test in 7 months!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 11 2024 High. The price action since the February 18 2025 High was been the patterns Bearish Leg and like the August 05 2024 bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line, it was done on an oversold (<30.00) 1D RSI.
Now that the price has Double Bottomed and bounced, it came across today with a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. 7 months ago it was that test and eventual break-out that initiated Nasdaq's 4-month non-stop rise. Initially once broken, the first target was just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, you can get a confirmed buy signal once the index closes above the 4H MA50 and target 21450 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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EUR/JPY Trade Setup: Buying the Dip Toward 160 for a 1:2.5 R/RSince reaching a low around 155 at the beginning of August, EUR/JPY has been trading within a defined range.
Earlier this March, the pair once again tested the lower boundary of this range and, as before, rebounded strongly. A higher low was established at the start of this week, suggesting that 159 may now serve as a new base of support.
In my view, EUR/JPY is likely to continue its upward trajectory, and a move toward 165 could materialize in the near future.
Conclusion:
Pullbacks toward the 160 area should be considered potential buying opportunities. With a stop-loss set around 158 and a target at 165, this setup offers an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.5.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
EURUSD Head and Shoulders triggering a sell.The EURUSD pair is about to complete a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame and so far it is keeping the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) intact. The last H&S formation we saw was completed on January 30 and it resulted in a -3.06% drop.
Given that the longer term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone with the H&S being on its top and the 4H RSI displaying the same Bearish Divergence it did in late January, we expect a similar pull-back to occur. Our Target is 1.06150, representing both a potential -3.06% drop and a contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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WHY NZDJPY IS BULLISH??? DETAILED ANALYSISNZDJPY is currently trading at 85.900, forming a descending channel pattern, signaling a potential breakout. This pattern often leads to bullish reversals, and once the price breaks above the resistance zone, we could see strong upside momentum toward the 90.000 target. A successful breakout with increased volume will confirm the bullish wave, leading to an anticipated gain of 300+ pips.
From a technical perspective, the pair is testing key resistance levels within the descending channel, and a breakout will align with major trend continuation signals. If buyers maintain control, we could see the price rally towards 87.500 first, followed by a push toward 90.000 psychological resistance. Traders should watch for confirmation signals such as strong bullish candles, RSI divergence, and volume spikes to validate the breakout.
On the fundamental side, market sentiment and risk appetite are favoring jpy pairs, with the New Zealand dollar benefiting from commodity price stability and global risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on monetary tightening keeps jpy under pressure, further supporting upside potential for nzdjpy. If risk sentiment remains positive, the pair could maintain its bullish outlook, making the 90.000 target highly achievable.
XAUUSD is about to top. What this means for stocks?Seven months ago (August 05 2024, see chart below) we gave our long-term view on Gold (XAUUSD) based on the similarities of the current Cycle with the previous one (before the 2020 High):
The market is now approaching our 3100 Target being up +24% since then. We will not go into the similarities between those two Cycles again. The market will complete on this price a +85.42% rise from the bottom, almost reaching the 3.0 Fibonacci extension.
This cyclical pattern shows that when Gold Tops (on its 3rd 1W RSI High) and starts its 4-year Bear Cycle, the S&P500 (blue trend-line) extends its Bull Cycle up until the moment Gold tests its Bear Cycle Resistance and Double Tops, which is when the S&P500 starts its own Bear Cycle and corrects.
Before Gold tops however, the stock market does experience a volatile phase, which is exactly what SPX has been through since January. This is a great signal telling us that Gold may indeed be headed towards a Cycle Top, perhaps even as early as a month from now.
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BITCOIN Is this the 'most normal' Cycle of them all ??This is not the first time we use a Convergence/ Divergence approach to Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles and certainly not the last one. On the previous one, it helped us to succesffuly predict the end of 2022 bottom but what we couldn't anticipate is how smooth the new/ current Cycle 5 (orange trend-line) would be.
As the title says, this is probably the 'most normal' Cycle of them all, as BTC has been trading within a Channel Up (orange) since the Bear Cycle's bottom more than 2 years ago.
To get a better understanding of this claim, we compare Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first), on this complete mapping analysis, having them all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange).
** Diminishing Returns **
As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one.
** Cycle Convergence - Divergence **
Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The most recent Bear Phase was not surprisingly as long as Cycle 4 and almost Cycle 3, which was to be expected as the market has shown an amazing degree of symmetry in the past 10 years. Note that this is also the model that helped as determine very early in 2023 that Cycle 3 would be the best fit for the new Cycle in terms of price action and without a doubt, BTC has been mostly replicating that Cycle.
** What's next for the current Cycle? **
If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. And this is exactly what it has been doing since the December High and the marginal January All Time High (ATH). It has started to diverge significantly from Cycle 3 so what the recent pull-back to the 1W MA50 achieved is to normalize it and is about to touch it.
Now that the price hit the bottom of its +2 year Channel Up, we expect to rise, which will achieved convergence and contact with both Cycles 3 and 4, which is what they both did in their last 150 days of their respective Bull Cycles. Technically, this can take Cycle 5 to around $150k.
As we've first mentioned in the crypto space, regarding the last Bear Market being the 'smoothest' in history, we can securely say now that the current Bull Cycle is also the 'most normal' ever.
So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might top and if so, is this Cycle indeed the 'most normal' in the history? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Lingrid | GOLD Weekly MARKET AnalysisOANDA:XAUUSD market remains strongly bullish as we have now reached the psychological level at 3000. The price has broke and closed above the previous resistance zone around the 2955 level, indicating that this area holds significant importance for the market. This suggests that, should the price retest this zone, there is a high likelihood of a bounce.
However, on the daily timeframe, the picture becomes slightly concerning. The price tested the global upward trendline and then closed below it. Historically, after each test of this level, the price has formed a pullback, so we may see a correction in the market this time as well. Given the current strong interest in gold—mainly due to global geopolitical concerns and ongoing tariff wars—the market may only experience a minimal retracement. Overall, any pullback at this stage could present a buying opportunity in anticipation of trend continuation.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Lingrid | EURUSD Bear-FREE Zone. Potential BUY OpportunityFX:EURUSD price is still consolidating following the significant bullish momentum in the market. Since Tuesday, it has mainly been moving sideways and is currently trading within that range. The market has reached a key resistance zone, but last week, we did not see any potential pullback. It appears that the price may continue to move sideways before making its next move. Notably, an ABC pullback is forming after the its completion, we might see a strong possibility of trend continuation. I expect the price to dip below last week's low, followed by a bullish move from the support level around 1.07800 and the upward trendline. My goal is resistance zone around 1.10000
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Bitcoin under 40k? Possible, but is this also probable?In life, anything is possible , and when it comes to crypto, everything is possible .
But, as I mentioned in my educational post yesterday, there’s a big difference between what is possible and what is probable.
In this article, I want to analyze the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below $40,000 and more importantly, what would need to happen for this scenario to shift from just possible to truly probable.
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BTC — From All-Time High to Distribution?
If we look at the Bitcoin chart, we notice that after the first all-time high very close to $100,000 at the end of November, the market began a consolidation phase.
Although we saw two more all-time highs — one around $108,000 in mid-December and another near $110,000 in January — the entire structure from late November to late February appears to be a distribution pattern rather than a healthy continuation.
Once Bitcoin broke below $90,000, we can consider this distribution phase complete, with a target for short positions around $75,000 — a level I’ve highlighted in my previous posts.
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Long-Term Logarithmic Chart — Diminishing Returns and the Bigger Picture
Looking at the long-term logarithmic chart, we can see a clear pattern of diminishing returns:
• The first major leg up, starting in late 2011, was approximately 600x and lasted about two years, followed by a correction.
• The next leg was 100x, spanning four years, followed by another correction.
• Then, a 20x rally, which lasted just over a year.
• Finally, the most recent leg up has been around 7x.
What’s crucial here is that returns are decreasing and, even more importantly, the last leg up looks more like an ascending channel than a parabolic move like in previous cycles.
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The Significance of the Ascending Channel
This ascending channel is not unusual — the market has matured, and big players are now involved, reducing volatility.
However, ascending channels on the long-term often signal potential reversals, rather than continuation.
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What Would Make $40,000 Probable?
Now, let’s address the real question: What would need to happen for Bitcoin to drop to $40,000?
Zooming in on the logarithmic chart, it becomes evident that the $72,000 - $75,000 zone is a major support confluence.
If this area is broken — meaning a weekly candle closes below this level — the scenario of BTC dropping toward $40,000 becomes probable.
The target zone I’m watching in this case is $32,000 - $36,000, a strong historical support that is clearly visible on higher timeframes.
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Conclusion — Watch the Key Levels, Not What you Hope
To conclude:
• Bitcoin dropping to those extreme levels is possible, but not yet probable.
• Probabilities will shift only if key support levels are broken — specifically $72k-$75k.
• The market has matured, cycles are changing, and returns are diminishing, so expecting a repeat of past parabolic runs may not be realistic.
• As traders and investors, we must focus on the charts and key levels, not on hopium and hype.
88K is not excluded but not granted as wellMorning folks,
So, we set for 85K sell and it worked. Downside reaction happened, but still, we call you to move stops to breakeven for some case.
The problem that we see is the market behavior. We see it not natural for normal bearish market. BTC stands stubbornly around K-resistance, not showing normal downside extension.
Our scenario of downside continuation from ~85K area is not broken yet, it is valid, and maybe everything will happen as we've suggested initially.
But we see the risk in the way of market behavior. It could lead to more extended upside bounce in the way of upside AB=CD pattern right to 88k resistance .
It means that if you already have bearish positions - move stops to breakeven. If you don't - do not take the new once for awhile. Or, at least, you could take but not more than 25-30% of your normal lot.
Our bearish scenario remains valid until market stands under 85.1K spike (because this is bearish reversal session on daily chart) and below 85.5K resistance in general. Upside breakout means an action to 88K.
Since we do not have the breakout it, I mark our update as "bearish", but we warned you... Take care.
Gold Eyes $3,000 Breakout: Buy the Dip Strategy Remains in PlayYesterday, as expected, Gold reached a new all-time high, coming very close to the key $3,000 psychological level.
Currently, the price is undergoing a minor correction, consolidating the strong gains from yesterday — which may present traders with a fresh opportunity to join the prevailing bullish trend.
The $2,955 level, representing the previous ATH, now acts as a key support. However, in my view, Gold is unlikely to revisit this level, as it would be too obvious and heavily watched by the market. Instead, I expect a shallow pullback followed by a new impulsive leg higher, likely pushing the price above the $3,000 mark.
Conclusion:
The strategy remains unchanged — buy dips in anticipation of a breakout to new all-time highs beyond $3,000.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
USOIL Market Outlook – Key Levels and Scenarios📌 Market Structure
🔹 Key Support Zone (~64.50 - 65.30 USD)
The price has tested this area multiple times, highlighted by the red dashed line at the bottom.
A pronounced lower wick suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure.
🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~68.20 - 70.00 USD)
The price has reacted to this zone, which appears to be a former support turned resistance.
Caution is needed for potential rejections in this range.
🔹 Liquidity and Wider Supply Zone (~75.00 - 80.00 USD)
This area, marked with red/purple gradients, represents a selling zone with a high concentration of orders.
The price could be drawn to this level if the bullish phase continues.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to break above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could lead to a retest of 64.50 - 65.30 USD.
A breakdown below this level could open the way toward 62.40 - 60.00 USD.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A weekly close above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could trigger a recovery toward 75.00 - 77.00 USD.
A breakout above 80.00 USD would invalidate the long-term bearish structure.
🔎 Conclusion:
The price is currently at a critical stage around 68 USD, with potential for a pullback.
Monitoring the reaction between 65.30 - 68.20 USD will be key in determining the next direction.
Volume and macroeconomic factors (OPEC, oil inventories, Fed policies) will be crucial in confirming the trend.
WTI increased slightly and decreased rapidly, downtrend TVC:USOIL prices rose slightly by about 1% in Asian trading on Monday before falling sharply, largely due to the continued US military crackdown on Houthi militias.
US Pete Hegseth said on Sunday that the US military will continue to fight the Houthis until they stop attacking international shipping lanes. The US has previously conducted airstrikes in Yemen, causing casualties among Houthi fighters.
The Houthis have hinted that they could take stronger retaliatory actions, adding to market concerns that the situation in the Red Sea will continue to escalate.
While geopolitical tensions pushed oil prices higher, concerns about global economic growth limited gains.
Goldman Sachs analysts have lowered their oil price forecasts based on the following points:
• The Trump administration’s new tariffs on Mexico and Canada could restrict global trade and lead to lower-than-previously expected US economic growth.
• The slowdown in economic growth will lead to lower oil demand, and Goldman Sachs expects oil demand growth in the coming months to be lower than previously estimated by the market.
• OPEC+ supply could exceed expectations, and while the market is currently focused on the situation in the Middle East, overall supply remains relatively abundant.
• The market expects signs of a slowdown in the US economy to keep oil prices under pressure in the long term, although geopolitical factors could still support prices in the short term. In addition, the market is paying attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on March 18-19. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged while continuing to assess the impact of the Trump administration's policies on the economy. If the economic outlook continues to deteriorate, the possibility of the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy this year cannot be ruled out.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook Analysis TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil is temporarily in the accumulation phase but with the current position and structure, the downtrend is still dominant with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel, the medium-term by the price channel and the nearest pressure from the EMA21.
The recovery momentum of WTI crude oil is also limited by the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level, and as long as crude oil fails to move above the EMA21 and break above the price channel, it still has a main bearish outlook.
In the short term, the downside target is around $65, the low since September 10, 2024, followed by the 0.786% Fibonacci extension. Notable positions for the WTI crude oil downside trend will be listed again as follows.
Support: $66.63 – $65.33
Resistance: $67.85 – $68.52 – $69.07
QQQ Nasdaq 100 Year-End Price Target and Technical Rebound SetupIf you haven`t bought the previous oversold area on QQQ:
Now the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ), which tracks the performance of the largest non-financial companies in the Nasdaq, has recently entered oversold territory, suggesting that a technical rebound may be imminent. Similar to the Russell 2000, QQQ has experienced significant selling pressure, driving key technical indicators into oversold zones and creating favorable conditions for a bounce.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 30, a level that typically signals oversold conditions and the potential for a reversal. Additionally, QQQ is trading near key support levels, with a large portion of its components underperforming their 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a classic setup for a mean reversion rally.
From a historical perspective, QQQ has shown a tendency to rebound strongly after similar oversold conditions, particularly when macroeconomic factors stabilize and buying pressure returns. Given the current technical setup, my price target for QQQ is $550 by the end of the year. This represents a recovery of approximately 8-10% from current levels, aligning with previous post-oversold rallies in the index.
While downside risks remain — including potential volatility around Federal Reserve policy and broader economic data — the technical backdrop suggests that QQQ is well-positioned for a recovery in the coming months.
Russell 2000 Year-End Price Target and Technical Rebound OutlookIf you ahven`t bought the Double Bottom on RUT 2K:
Now the Russell 2000 Index (RUT), which tracks small-cap stocks, has recently entered oversold territory, signaling that a potential technical rebound could be on the horizon. Oversold conditions typically occur when selling pressure becomes excessive, driving the index below its fundamental value and creating an opportunity for a corrective bounce.
Several technical indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have fallen below the 30 level — a classic oversold signal. Historically, similar setups have led to strong short-term recoveries as buying interest returns once the selling momentum exhausts itself.
Additionally, market breadth indicators suggest that the recent pullback has been broad-based, with a high percentage of RUT 2K components trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This type of widespread weakness often precedes a period of mean reversion, where prices bounce back toward key resistance levels.
Given these technical signals, my price target for RUT 2K is $2,450 by the end of the year. A rebound toward this level would represent a recovery of approximately 10-12% from current levels, aligning with previous post-oversold rallies in the index. If broader market sentiment stabilizes and small caps benefit from improving economic conditions or easing rate hike pressures, the path toward this target becomes increasingly plausible.
While downside risks remain — including ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions — the technical setup suggests that RUT 2K is primed for a recovery in the coming months.