GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Oct 14 - Oct 18]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD have continuously decreased in the early sessions of the week to nearly 2,602 USD/oz because market expectations about the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (FED) began to change. . Last week's strong jobs report, combined with a higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), forced the market to temper expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Fed next month.
However, economic experts note that the slowing US economy will continue to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates, albeit at a slightly slower pace. This combined with US consumer sentiment falling to 68.9 points, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict remaining complicated, pushed gold prices back up to 2,661 USD/oz and closed the week at 2,657. USD/oz.
Although the FED may reduce the pace of interest rate cuts in the near future, investors should not forget that US monetary policy is only one factor affecting gold prices. Notably, many central banks have officially announced they will continue to buy gold reserves.
As central bank demand continues to dominate the gold market, new questions are being raised about where all that money is going and what impact it has on the dollar. Certainly, reducing the proportion of USD in foreign exchange reserves of many countries will cause the USD to gradually depreciate.
In addition, BRICS member countries are promoting local currency swaps and using electronic currencies in international trade, also creating significant downward pressure on the USD.
In addition, the record high level of US public debt is weakening the purchasing power of the USD.
The USD has been under a lot of downward pressure, so of course it will positively support gold prices in the medium and long term.
📌Technically, on the H4 chart, there are continuous periods of sideways accumulation, then continuously creating new high prices afterward. And this time is no exception if the price breaks the peak of 2,685 USD/oz.
Currently, the support level is established around the circular resistance level of 2600, while the resistance level is around the 2685 mark. Next week, if the gold price trades above the 2625 threshold, we can expect the price to continue to increase beyond the 2700 threshold.
In case the support mark of 2600 is penetrated, the gold price will temporarily decrease and adjust below the level of 2555.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.555 – 2.600 – 2.625USD
Resistance: 2.700 – 2.685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2705
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2554 - 2556⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2550
Signals
DXY Is Very Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 102.912.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 104.409 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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NZDUSD Is Going Down! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 0.610.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 0.605.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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SPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the SPY with the target of 545.10 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
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More than 5% profit congratulations to the bullsIt's not too late this is just the beginning
Since October we've seen a major panic sale from bitcoin holders simply because of some uncertainties regarding the political state of the USA
I've entered my trade September 1st at 59036$ and I've been green since then
Bitcoin did only what he was supposed to do which is recover in an explosive way 🧨🧨🧨🧨🧨
It's just the beginning it will at least go above the 65858$ higher high
GBP_CHF NEXT MOVE|LONG|
✅GBP_CHF will be retesting a support level soon at 1.1140
From where I am expecting a bullish reaction
With the price going up but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
LONG🚀
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USD-CHF Bullish Bias! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CHF is trading in a
Local uptrend and the pair
Is consolidating above
The horizontal support
Of 0.8550 so we are
Locally bullish biased
And we will be expecting
A further move up
Buy!
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GBP-NZD Potential Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-NZD is making a
A local correction but
The pair is trading in an
Uptrend so after the retest
Of the horizontal support of 2.1330
We will be expecting a
Local bullish rebound
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Lingrid | USDJPY potential Continuation of Bullish TREND The price perfectly fulfilled my previous idea. It hit the TP. FX:USDJPY pair is currently making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. The price has fluctuated around the psychological level of 147.000, but it has finally broken through and closed above this level with a significant bullish candle, highlighting its importance. I believe the market may consolidate a bit longer, as the 150.000 level is looming above before moving upward. My goal is resistance zone around 150.800
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.09535$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
GOLD: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily GOLD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 2,669.774$
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
DXY: Move Down Expected! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 102.789
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
USOIL Will Grow! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 7,527.3.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 7,913.5. level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Uber (UBER): What a ride!Uber (UBER): NYSE:UBER
We've recently added Uber to our portfolio, noting its astonishing 400% rise from the COVID-19 low of $13.71. This surge is significant, and we anticipate that in the current wave 3 we're experiencing, the price could reach between $101 and $201. The precise target seems to lean towards the $101 mark, aligning with the 161.8% extension level. Currently, the high is at $81.86. We expect a pullback in the coming days and weeks to between $59.40 and $52.46, corresponding to the 38.2% to 50% retracement levels.
There's a possibility of forming an Expanded Flat leading to wave 4, a pattern observed in waves 1 and 2, suggesting a potential deviation from the anticipated zigzag or other formations. Thus, surpassing the $81.86 mark would not be incorrect, provided it does not exceed the 138% threshold. Following this wave 4, we foresee the completion of wave 3 at a minimum of $101. A limit order will be placed at the first sign of weakness.
Gold prices unexpectedly increased at the end of the sessionWith positive signals from the breakout of the downtrend channel and the support of the EMAs, gold (XAUUSD) is showing a great opportunity for investors. If the price continues to hold above the $2,636 zone and breaks out above the $2,665 level, we can expect a strong rally to $2,680 and beyond.
Trading recommendation: Investors can consider buying orders when the price remains above the $2,636 support zone, with profit targets at $2,665 and $2,680.
GOLD rose for two consecutive sessions after inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD rose on Friday (October 11), after US inflation data reinforced the prospect of lower interest rates this year, keeping the dollar below recent peaks, amid haven demand. Safety stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also boosted gold.
At the end of the trading session on October 11, the spot gold contract increased 1% to 2,656.09 USD/oz, increasing for the second consecutive session. Gold futures contracts added 1.3% to 2,674.40 USD/oz.
The PPI producer price index in the US was unchanged in September, showing that the inflation outlook remains favorable and supporting expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month.
The PPI data looks friendly to precious metals bulls and shows that the Fed is still on track to lower interest rates this year.
This data comes after CPI data in the US rose slightly higher than forecast last month, however, the annual inflation increase was at the lowest level in more than 3 and a half years.
The dollar steadied below a 2-month peak on Friday.
On the physical front, gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in two months this week as the upcoming festive season attracted some buying of copper jewellery.
Gold holdings of ETFs increased to nearly 95 tons in the third quarter. This means ETFs are contributing positively to gold demand again for the first time in 10 quarters.
GBP_NZD WILL GROW|LONG|
✅GBP_NZD is about to retest a key structure level of 2.1350
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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GOLD recovers strongly from support area, eye US PPIOn Friday (October 11) in the Asian market, spot gold suddenly increased sharply in the short term. Gold price has just exceeded 2,645 USD/ounce, increasing more than 15 USD during the day.
While US CPI data was slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly. This caused the US Dollar index to decrease significantly. In addition, tensions in the Middle East also attracted a wave of safe-haven gold buying.
On Thursday, although US CPI data came in slightly higher than expected, US initial jobless claims data performed poorly.
Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations for a 2.3% increase. Core CPI increased by 3.3% over the same period last year, exceeding expectations and the 3.2% increase in August.
Additionally, US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, a similar increase to the previous month and above the consensus estimate of 0.1%. The US core CPI growth rate in September was stable at 0.3% over the previous month, exceeding expectations of 0.2%.
The data also showed the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims last week rose to the highest level in more than a year, reflecting a weakening labor market partly due to a rise in jobless claims. strong in Michigan and the effects of Hurricane Helene.
OANDA:XAUUSD supported by broad-based risk aversion and a softer USD ahead of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data released later on Friday.
On Thursday evening local time, the Israeli security cabinet held a meeting to decide how to respond to Iran's large-scale missile attack on Israel on the 1st of this month.
Science Minister Gila Gamliel, a member of Israel's security cabinet, said the security cabinet would "make the right decision" to prevent another Iranian attack.
Gamliel told Israeli public broadcaster Kan that revenge was imminent and could happen at any time.
US and Israeli officials told Axios that US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved closer to the scope of Israel's planned retaliation against Iran during their phone call on Wednesday, media reported. American news agency Axios reported on Thursday (local time). The Biden administration admits that Israel will soon launch a major attack on Iran.
Pay attention to PPI data
US annual PPI growth in September is expected to slow to 1.6% while year-on-year core PPI growth in September is expected to increase to 2.7%, compared to previous growth of 2.4% in August.
PPI data is almost as influential as CPI data and is also expected to create strong fluctuations in the market.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold has recovered significantly from the key support area that readers noticed in the publications before gold adjusted down to the 2,608 – 2,600 USD area.
The recovery gains achieved the initial target at $2,634 and broke this level, which would qualify gold to continue towards the next target at $2,660 in the short term.
There are no changes in the technical structure that support the upside, with the Relative Strength Index also folding upward from 50, which is seen as the closest support in terms of momentum.
During the day, the technical outlook for gold prices continues to be bullish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 2,634 – 2,630 – 2,626USD
Resistance: 2,660 – 2,672 – 2685USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2663 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2667
→Take Profit 1 2656
↨
→Take Profit 2 2655
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2618
→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633
TESLA Can it reverse the ROBOTAXI DISASTER?Tesla (TSLA) plummeted on opening today following yesterday's Robotaxi event, dropping as much as -10% intra day below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and touching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since August 05.
The market clearly considered the Robotaxi and the other aspects of the event a disaster fundamentally and the early impression is imprinted on this price collapse. The question on investors' minds is, can the company reverse the sentiment?
Well, technically there is a big reason why the price has been pulling back since the September 30 High and that is simple. It has been rejected exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line that started on Tesla's All Time High (ATH) back on November 04 2021.
As you can see, this powerful multi-year Resistance has already 5 rejections (red circles) under its belt. But on the bright side, the price has shown clear signs of reversing this long-term and the biggest is the Higher Lows since the January 06 2023 market bottom (the 2nd Higher Low on April 22 2024).
On top of that we are seeing the potential for a Channel Up (blue) since the April 22 2024 bottom and is being supported by the 1D MA100. Below that, the last (symmetrical) Support Zone is offered by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 195.00 level (so a zone roughly within 195.00 - 203.00). Below that, the recovery potential is endangered to a great extent.
So to summarize, there are strong support levels that may cause yesterday's disastrous fundamental sentiment to reverse but most of all, Tesla needs to break above its ATH Lower Highs trend-line. If it does, the first target of the new Bullish Leg should be $380.00 (Higher High on the blue Channel Up).
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