85% of Traders Are Wrong on GBPCAD - I'm Going Short!📊 COT Analysis
GBP:
Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment.
Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure.
→ Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading.
CAD:
Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment.
Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift.
→ CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD.
📈 Seasonality – June/July
GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant.
CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages).
→ Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition.
🧠 Retail Sentiment
Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal.
→ Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside.
→ Confirms short bias.
📉 Price Action & RSI
Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area).
Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming.
Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move).
→ Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
Signals
#ETH Rebounds on Ceasefire News – Eyes Set on $3100 and Beyond!By analyzing the #Ethereum chart on the weekly (logarithmic) timeframe, we can see that after dropping to $2100, ETH started recovering strongly following the ceasefire announcement, and is currently trading around $2430. If Ethereum manages to close above $2700 by the end of the week, we could expect further upside.
The next potential bullish targets are $2890, $3100, and $4100.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
EUR-CAD Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CAD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is
About to retest a horizontal
Support of 1.5933 and as
We are locally bullish biased
We will be expecting a
Local bullish rebound
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
US100 BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅US100 is going up
Now and the index made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 22,222 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bullish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CAD-CHF Bullish Rebound Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CAD-CHF fell down sharply
And the pair was oversold
So we are not surprised to
See a bullish rebound from
The strong horizontal support
Around 0.5830 level and we
Think that we are likely
To see a further bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DAX Inverse Head and Shoulders target 24600!DAX (DE40) is about to complete an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, with the price currently stuck in range within the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
A 4H candle closing above the 4H MA200, confirms the IH&S pattern and the bullish break-out technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, currently a little above 24600. On top of that, the break-out may be accompanied by a 1D MAD Bullish Cross, further confirmation of the bullish sentiment.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DXY Short-term rebound quite likely.The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within almost a 3-year Channel Down, which has assisted us in choosing the right levels to sell high and buy low.
Despite being now on its 2nd major Bearish Leg, we see a short-term bounce possibly up to August quite likely based on the previous major Bearish Leg. As you see, the current setup resembles the April 13 023 Low after which the price rebounded short-term just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level, only to get rejected later and complete the bottom on the 1.1 Fib extension.
Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical. Therefore, before diving below 96.000, we believe a 100.000 test is quite likely.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DXY: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 96.899 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 97.077.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 36.463 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 36.640 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.17021 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,342.22 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,336.36..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
SILVER Will Go Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for SILVER.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 3,655.5.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 3,780.6 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EURUSD Will Move Lower! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 15h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 1.173.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.144 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
AUDJPY Is Bullish! Long!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 94.220.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 95.015 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NZDCHF Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for NZDCF
Time Frame: 17h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 0.485.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 0.492 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
BTC/USDT Drop to 101k?🧠 High Time Frame Context
Trend: Consolidation within a broad range (support and resistance clearly defined).
Key Psychological Levels:
105,000 USDT – minor level, acting as a magnet in short-term PA.
110,000 USDT – major supply confluence and liquidity target.
🟪 Supply & Resistance Zone
Zone: Marked in purple (108.5k-112k).
Key Observation:
Swing high formed inside this zone, indicating liquidity trap.
Potential fake-out or strong rejection from this area.
Strong confluence with a descending resistance trendline, adding to the selling pressure.
🔵 Fair Value Gap (FVG) & Retracement Targets
FVG identified just below the current price (~103.5k-104.5k).
Price is projected to:
Reject from the current high.
Drop to fill the FVG zone.
Possibly bounce between FVG and Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5
0.618
0.786
🔴 Volume & RSI Divergence
Volume breakout is noted on the last push down (bottom red annotation), followed by a retrace.
OBV shows bullish divergence with price:
🔻 Support Structure
Lower red trendline is a key long-term support.
Previous swing low aligns with this trendline – buyers showed strong interest here.
If FVG fails to hold, expect a retest of this trendline near 97,000–98,000.
📈 Likely Scenarios
Base Case (Neutral-Bearish):
Price rejects current zone (~107,000).
Pullback into FVG (101–104K).
Bounce to 105K (minor resistance), then decide next direction.
Bullish Breakout:
If price breaks and closes above 110K, it invalidates supply zone.
Opens door to 115–118K range.
Bearish Breakdown:
Fails FVG zone.
Tests previous swing low and support (~97K).
Below that, structure becomes macro bearish.
🧩 Summary
Short-Term: Retracement into FVG likely. Monitor reaction.
Medium-Term: Bearish bias while price is below 110K.
Invalidation for bears: Clean break and hold above 110K.
WHY GBPUSD BULLISH ???GBPUSD is unfolding exactly as anticipated, with price now hovering around the 1.3740 region and maintaining strong bullish momentum. Price has successfully bounced from the key support zone near 1.3430, which was previously a major resistance turned into solid demand. This level held firmly during multiple retests, confirming a clean breakout-retest continuation pattern. As long as this structure remains intact, I continue to hold a bullish bias targeting 1.4000 in the coming sessions.
From a fundamental perspective, the British Pound is gaining strength on the back of improved UK economic sentiment. The latest UK inflation data surprised to the upside, pushing annual CPI back above 3%, which reinforces expectations that the Bank of England may need to act sooner rather than later on rate hikes. Markets are now pricing in higher probability of a rate adjustment before the end of Q3 2025. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is under moderate pressure as recent soft labor data and downward revisions in consumer confidence readings have dampened expectations for further tightening from the Fed.
Technically, GBPUSD has cleared major Fibonacci resistance levels and is now forming higher highs and higher lows across the higher timeframes. The current bullish wave is fueled by clean institutional demand and strong price action momentum. If the pair can sustain above 1.3650–1.3680, a swift move toward the psychological 1.4000 handle is highly probable. The 1.4218 Fibonacci extension aligns as a longer-term secondary target for swing traders holding this bullish continuation.
This setup offers a solid blend of macroeconomic backing and technical structure. GBPUSD remains one of the top trending forex pairs right now, favored by strong price action, central bank divergence, and global capital rotation. I'm closely monitoring for intraday pullbacks to add long positions, aiming for extended upside as the market follows through on this bullish breakout continuation.
BITCOIN Cup & Handle completed! Technical Target $169k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to complete the Handle of a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern. This comes only days after breaking below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) buy holding the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and rebounding.
Well the 1D MA50 has been recovered and on top of that, the 1D MACD just formed a Bullish Cross. This (isolated) Bull Flag, which is the Handle, technically targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $169000.
Do you think that's realistic or a little excessive within thin time-frame? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇