EURUSD Top of the Channel Down. How to trade this.The EURUSD pair gave us a solid short-term buy last time (January 13, see chart below) that easily hit the 1.02850 Target:
The price remains near the top of the 5-week Channel Down and technically this is a sell signal. Our Target is 1.01250, which is the -2.30% minimum decline that has taken place within this pattern as a Bearish Leg.
If the price rises more however and breaks above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be the first time to do so since October 01 2024, and a technical buy signal. In that case, take the loss on the sell and go long instead, targeting 1.06250, which is both marginally below the starting level (Resistance 1) of the Channel Down, as well as significantly below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
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Signals
XAUUSD One Resistance remains before it marches to $3000.Last week's call on Gold (XAUUSD) gave us an excellent pull-back buy entry on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and reached not only the top of the Channel Up but almost Resistance 1 as well:
Reaching Resistance 1 has always been a strong bullish signal for the long-term Channel Up that started more than 1 year ago on the October 06 2023 Low. As you can see, both two times that the price broke above the Triangle pattern of its Bearish Leg and tested Resistance 1, it eventually broke it, confirming the new Bullish Leg.
All three break-out Legs have 1D MACD Bullish Crosses to show for. With both previous Bullish Legs peaking upon at least a +21.85% rally, we expect Gold to hit $3000 minimum by April.
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GOLD Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 2,706.25.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 2,790.68 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GBPNZD Is Going Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GBPNZD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 2.174.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 2.200 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USDCHF – Potential Bearish Continuation Toward SupportThe USDCHF pair has broken below a key ascending trendline, signaling a potential shift in momentum. This move aligns with a bearish bias, suggesting that price action may now head lower.
If the price retraces back to the broken trendline or nearby resistance levels and forms bearish confirmations—such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or long upper wicks, it could reinforce the likelihood of further downside movement.
Should this scenario materialize, sellers may target the 0.90484 level as the next area of interest. A sustained breakdown below this support zone could pave the way for continued bearish pressure.
However, traders should remain cautious. A break back above the resistance zone or strong bullish momentum could invalidate this outlook.
Lingrid | EURUSD complex PULLBACK. Short OpportunityFX:EURUSD has been moving sideways for the past couple of days. The market is pulling back toward the resistance zone after a fake breakout of the support level. It appears that the price is forming an ABCD pullback, as it has not moved significantly lower than the resistance zone at 1.03500. Additionally, a doji candle has formed on the weekly timeframe, which suggests indecision. I believe the market may move above the previous weekly high to take liquidity. I expect that this pullback will be followed by a continuation of the downward trend. My goal is support zone around 1.02520
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Lingrid | BITCOIN the Dawn of a NEW Bull Run?BINANCE:BTCUSDT market has moved above its all-time high and is breaking through the channel, making higher highs in the process. After spending more than two months moving sideways, I believe the market is poised for a surge. The price is already displaying bullish momentum, which suggests that this week could mark the beginning of a bull run.I anticipate that the market to mirror the conditions we saw in January 2024, which also initiated a bull run. My goal is resistance zone around 115000
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Hi chances on reversalMorning folks,
So, by introducing $Trump Token, old Donny has put the start of global US Dollar devaluation. And Melania probably will add today...
All our short-term targets are done - weekly grabbers and H&S failure has worked fine, BTC has challenged the top of 108K. We consider this action as hype and emotional. Mostly due euphoria around D. Trump inauguration.
Due to oversold on Monthly and Daily time frames, chances on reversal are significant. So we intend to watch for DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart.
Still, Donny could tell us a lot today, and madness could continue a little bit. We do not exclude that BTC could try to reach nearest upside extension around 113.5K before reversal starts.
We do not call right now for taking short positions, let's see what will be on Thu, prefer to wait for patterns and signs for reversal first. But we call to consider long positions close or, at least tight stops around them.
Take care.
NzdUsd could rise to 0.58 (swing trade)The final quarter of 2024 was particularly challenging for the NZD, with the currency declining by 800 pips from its peak to its lowest point. More significantly, this drop represents a devaluation of over 12%, which is substantial for a major currency pair.
As 2025 begins, however, OANDA:NZDUSD has entered a consolidation phase, holding above the critical support zone near 0.5550. This level is noteworthy and deserves attention as a potential turning point.
While the overall trend remains bearish, a rebound from this key support area is likely. If this occurs, the pair could move higher toward the 0.58 resistance level.
In summary, dips near the support zone present buying opportunities with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, targeting a return of at least 1:2.
USD/JPY: Consolidation Ahead of Big MoveLooking at the 4-hour chart of USD/JPY, I see the pair is currently trading around 155.79, with a notable reaction at the support area near 155.50. The 34 EMA and 89 EMA have started to widen their gap, indicating that the bearish pressure is still in place. However, the 155.50 price zone acts as an important psychological support, creating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
The 34 EMA acts as dynamic resistance near 156.20. If the price fails to break above this level, the downtrend is likely to continue.
A break below 155.50 could drag the price to test deeper support at 154.80 – a strong support level in previous sessions.
Conversely, if the price breaks above the 34 EMA, the pair could test the higher resistance at 156.80, near the 89 EMA.
GBP/USD: Consolidation at Key SupportLooking at the 4-hour chart of GBP/USD, I see that the pair is currently trading around 1.2202, with signs of consolidation at a strong support zone. The 34 EMA and 89 EMA are still sloping down, indicating that the bearish bias is still dominant. However, the gap between the price and the EMA is narrowing, which could be a sign that the bearish pressure is waning.
In addition, the pair has successfully tested the 1.2170 support zone in recent sessions, creating a solid foundation for a short-term recovery. To break this consolidation, the price needs to overcome the dynamic resistance at the 34 EMA, located around 1.2230. If this happens, the next target will be the 1.2300 zone – a strong psychological resistance.
EUR/USD: Will It Recover or Continue Downtrend?Looking at the daily chart of EUR/USD, I see that the pair is moving within a clear bearish channel. Currently, the price is hovering around 1.0297, near the center line of the channel. The EMA 34 and EMA 89 are still sloping down, confirming the long-term downtrend. However, a small divergence at the support level suggests a potential short-term recovery.
It is worth noting that the price is testing a dynamic resistance zone, near the EMA 34, around 1.0300. If the price fails to break above this level, selling pressure could increase, dragging the price down to the 1.0200 area, or even the bottom of the channel around 1.0100. Conversely, if the price breaks above the EMA 34 and breaks the channel, the next target could be the 1.0400 area.
Gold Gains Amid Low US Inflation – More Upside Ahead?
Looking at the gold price action on the 4-hour chart, I see some technical signals supporting the possibility of a price increase. Currently, the price is hovering around $2,699 and maintaining above the EMA 34 ($2,693) and EMA 89 ($2,672). This shows that the uptrend is still dominant. At the same time, the price bounced after touching near the EMA 34 in the recent session, reinforcing the important support role of this area.
The arrangement of the EMAs still supports the uptrend, with the EMA 34 above the EMA 89. This combined with the recovery momentum from technical support creates expectations that the price will test the important resistance zone at $2,728. A break of this level would open the possibility of a price increase to the $2,750 area and higher. However, it should be noted that the support zone at $2,693 (34 EMA) will be the first line of defense if the price corrects. If the price breaks this zone, selling pressure could push the price down to the $2,672 (89 EMA) zone.
Fundamentals: Lower-than-expected inflation data has reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (FED) will continue to cut interest rates, which will weaken the USD and increase the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, investors are still waiting for economic policy information after Donald Trump returns to the White House.
I see gold in a short-term consolidation but has the potential to bounce if it breaks the important resistance zone. Watch the $2,728 zone closely to assess the next market momentum.
GOLD is supported, but watch out for TrumpIn the weekend trading session on Friday (January 17), OANDA:XAUUSD Spot price decreased by 12 USD due to factors such as the recovery of the US Dollar and profit-taking activities of investors, along with some pressure from important technical areas.
TVC:DXY Rising prices have put pressure on gold prices, but with uncertainty over incoming President Donald Trump's policies and markets once again betting on further interest rate cuts, Gold remains in favor. Weakly tilted to the upside as prices broke above the key level of $2,700.
OANDA:XAUUSD hit a new high in more than a month on Thursday, just $65.60 shy of October's all-time high of $2,790.15. Gold prices rose 0.5% this week, the third straight weekly gain, after weaker-than-expected U.S. core inflation data on Wednesday fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. capacity many times.
The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice before the end of this year, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller saying there could be further interest rate cuts if economic data weakens further.
Trump's policies make the market worried
The market is currently eagerly awaiting Mr. Trump's inauguration on January 20, which is expected to bring challenges to the gold market. Trump's strong rhetoric about supporting US manufacturing through trade tariffs continues to keep the US Dollar Index (Dxy) above 109 points, while also raising concerns about inflation and anxiety about a global trade war.
Aggressive markets will pay close attention to tariffs and fiscal spending policies, as these policies will directly affect economic growth, fiscal deficits and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed.
This week has been a pretty quiet data week. However, the event of Trump taking over the White House will be the focus, bringing expected market fluctuations that are huge fluctuations that traders need to pay special attention to.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: US Presidential Inauguration, World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims,
Friday: S&P Flash PMI data, US Existing Home Sales
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has not yet been able to surpass the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, a position that is important resistance for a continued uptrend that readers noticed in the previous issue.
Gold has also decreased and corrected since being under pressure from the 0.236% Fibonacci level, but in general, the downward momentum is not significant with technical conditions still tilting in favor of price increases.
In the coming time, as long as gold remains in the orange price channel, above EMA21 and POC Volume Profile, it still has a bullish outlook. Meanwhile, the up trending RSI maintained its activity above the 50 level, showing that there is still wide room for price growth ahead.
Once gold breaks the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level it could open a new bullish cycle targeting $2,750 in the short term, more than the all-time high.
The technical uptrend of gold will be noticed again by the following levels.
Support: 2,693 – 2,676USD
Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2741 - 2739⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2745
→Take Profit 1 2734
↨
→Take Profit 2 2729
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2659 - 2661⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2655
→Take Profit 1 2666
↨
→Take Profit 2 2671
EURUSD - Potential Short from Resistance ZoneThe EURUSD pair is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. The price has recently bounced from the lower boundary of the channel and is now approaching a key resistance zone , aligning with the channel's upper boundary.
If the price rejects this resistance zone, it could signal a resumption of the downtrend. Confirmation of bearish momentum, such as rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or long upper wicks, would strengthen the likelihood of a downward move.
In this scenario, the next target for sellers would be the 1.02029 level. A break below this support could extend the bearish trend further toward lower levels.
Traders should closely monitor price action near the resistance zone for signs of rejection or a potential breakout.
COTTON: Potential Sell from Resistance ZoneFOREXCOM:COTTON is nearing a significant resistance level that has previously acted as a ceiling for bullish momentum. The current upward move into this zone suggests potential selling opportunities if rejection signals appear.
If bearish patterns such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing candles emerge, I anticipate a move toward 6,818.0. Traders should wait for clear confirmation before initiating short positions. If you have anything to add or a different perspective, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!
EURNOK - Potential Sell from Key Resistance ZoneOANDA:EURNOK is nearing a key resistance zone that has been a critical area for bearish reversals in the past. The current price action suggests sellers may regain control at this resistance level.
If bearish patterns appear, such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing candles, I anticipate a move toward 11.73160. Conversely, a break above this resistance could invalidate the bearish bias and indicate potential for further upside.
Traders should monitor this area closely and use proper risk management strategies. If you have any thoughts or agree with this analysis, I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments!
USDCAD - Buy Opportunity After Resistance BreakOANDA:USDCAD has broken above a critical resistance level and is aligning with bullish trend continuation by retesting this level as support. If the support holds, I expect a move upward toward 1.45300, aligning with the bullish trend.
Conversely, if the support is broken, the bullish outlook could weaken, paving the way for further declines.
Traders should monitor this zone closely for signs of buyer strength before taking long positions. Do you see this playing out similarly? Let’s discuss in the comments below!
GBPNZD: Sell Opportunity After Support BreakOANDA:GBPNZD has broken a key support zone signaling a potential increase in bearish momentum. The price is currently retesting this broken support, which now serves as resistance.
If sellers confirm resistance at this level, I expect the price to move downward toward 2.15600, aligning with the bearish trend. On the other hand, a failure to hold resistance could indicate a bullish shift.
Traders should watch for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or strong selling volume, before entering short positions.
CAD-JPY Bearish Bias! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CAD-JPY broke both the
Rising and horizontal
Support line which are
Now resistance areas
And the breakout is
Confirmed so we are
Bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 20 - January 24]This week, OANDA:XAUUSD fluctuated strongly, increasing from 2,656 USD/oz to 2,724 USD/oz, then decreasing and closing at 2,702 USD/oz. The main reason is due to the prediction that Donald Trump may implement his tariff commitments after his inauguration, increasing the risk of inflation in the context of the FED maintaining current interest rates. If this policy is implemented, the risk of a US-China trade war and global economic instability will increase, even leading to stagflation. These factors may continue to support gold prices to increase next week.
Mr. Trump can promote expansionary fiscal policy, increasing US public debt and the risk of global financial instability, thereby strengthening gold's role as a haven. However, next week's gold price may decrease if Mr. Trump delays or delays the imposition of tariffs, although this possibility is considered very low.
In the short term, gold prices may increase with the USD due to the impact of Mr. Trump's policies, instead of having a negative correlation as before. However, in the long term, if inflation increases sharply, forcing the FED to raise interest rates to curb inflation, this will put downward pressure on gold prices.
Next week, in addition to Mr. Trump's inauguration, the US will also release weekly unemployment claims and S&P Flash PMI data and existing home sales... However, these economic data may will not have much impact on the gold price trend next week.
📌In terms of technical analysis, if the gold price next week surpasses the threshold of 2,725 USD/oz, it can continue to conquer the strong resistance area at 2,790 USD/oz, and the gold price next week could even exceed 2,800 USD/oz. /oz if Mr. Trump's tariff commitment comes true after his inauguration. Meanwhile, the important support level for gold price next week is at 2,650 USD/oz. (Around the moving average EMA34, 89)
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,700 – 2,693 – 2,676USD
Resistance: 2,730 – 2,750USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2791 - 2789⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2795
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2645