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GBPUSD is trending downGBP/USD has risen sharply over the past three weeks, logging solid gains that have coincided with a shift in favor of riskier currencies at the expense of the broader U.S. dollar. After recent price developments, cable is flirting with overhead resistance at 1.2720, defined by the 61.8% Fib retracement of the July/October selloff. If the bulls manage to clear this ceiling, a rally potentially exceeding 1.2800 might unfold. Conversely, if bullish impetus fades and sellers start to regain the upper hand, we may see a retrenchment towards 1.2590. GBP/USD could stabilize around this technical floor on a pullback before resuming its advance, but a break below the region could intensify bearish pressure, opening the door for a decline towards trendline support and the 200-day moving average slightly above 1.2460.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
1
According to technical analysis, gold will increaseGold jumped more than 3% to above $2,100 early on Monday before paring those gains, hitting fresh all-time highs amid growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at this month’s meeting and could start cutting rates next year. Traders also doubled down on those bets despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pushback against rate-cut expectations, saying it’s “premature” to anticipate policy easing. Markets now see a 60% chance that the US central bank could reduce its policy rate in March next year and are fully pricing in a cut in May. On the data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in below estimates in November, pointing to the 13th consecutive contraction in the factory activity and supporting the softer rate outlook. Additionally, the latest US PCE inflation reading indicated a slowdown in prices, while continuing jobless claims reached a two-year high. OANDA:XAUUSD BUY XAUUSD 2080-2078-2075 ✔️TP1 2085 ✔️TP2 2090 ❌SL 2070
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD tends to decrease when it encounters resistanceThe British pound has been heavily influenced but the US dollar of recent with investors becoming less hawkish on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Recent weaker US economic data has prompted such an outlook alongside some dovish Fed commentary. During yesterday’s US trading session, the 2nd estimate on US GDP surprised to the upside but the market remained firm on it’s bearish USD viewpoint after the Fed Beige book revealed slowing economic growth and softening prices that will likely extend through to 2024. Money markets have since priced in 115bps of cumulative rate cuts by the Fed by December 2024. The focal point for the week has always been the upcoming core PCE price index (see economic calendar below) which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Should actual data fall in line with forecasts, the pound may well find additional support. Jobless claims will also be scrutinized to see whether or not recent labor market weakness continues or was just a blip in what has been a robust part of the US economy.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is likely to fall to the bottom of the rising price channThe euro fell 0.17% versus the dollar to $1.0973 EURUSD, pressured by inflation data from Germany showing price growth slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 3% in October. Inflation in Spain also slowed sharply. The euro zone-wide inflation figure is due out on Thursday, before the Fed's preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, is released. The market's fixation on inflation will likely shift to labor data as the degree of the economic slowdown takes precedence over the pace of decelerating prices, Upadhyaya said. "Now the labor market is going be the big focus because it's the statistic that could lead to a Fed pivot from a pause to a cut," he said.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
1
Today's gold trading strategyGold edges higher in the early morning Asian session, underpinned by prospects of Fed rate cuts next year, which would increase the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal. Treasury yields have stayed under pressure following Fed governor Waller's comments earlier this week that monetary policy is well-positioned to return inflation to a 2% target, ANZ Research analysts say in a report. A JPMorgan Chase survey shows investors are increasingly positioning for a hard economic landing and aggressive Fed policy easing next year, the analysts note. Spot gold is 0.1% higher at $2,045.45/oz. XAUUSD SELL 2048 - 2051 🟢TP1: 2042 🟢TP2: 2038 🔴SL: 2053 XAUUSD BUY 2027 - 2025 🟢TP1: 2032 🟢TP2: 2037 🔴SL: 2020
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD has a downward trendGBP/USD has been on a bullish tear in November, rising nearly 4.5% since the beginning of the month. After Tuesday's gains, the pair has reached its best level since late August, but has been unable to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July/October slump (1.2720). If this ceiling holds, the upside momentum could run out of steam, paving the way for a drop towards 1.2590, followed by 1.2460. In the event of a clear break above 1.2720, sentiment on sterling is likely to improve, unleashing animal spirits that could propel a potential upward move towards 1.2850. On further strength, buying interest could accelerate, opening the door to a climb toward the 1.3000 handle. Although the bullish case for GBP/USD is strong, it is important to exercise caution as the pair is about to enter overbought territory
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EUR/USD is trending downEUR/USD extended its advance on Tuesday, clearing Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960 and rising to its best mark in more than three months. If the pair holds onto recent gains and establishes a support base near 1.0960, there's a possibility of an upward push towards 1.1080 following a period of consolidation. Should bullish momentum persist, attention could turn to the 2023 highs near 1.1275. In case of a downward shift from current levels, it is imperative to closely monitor price action around 1.0960, bearing in mind that a breach of this technical zone could send the exchange rate towards 1.0840. On further weakness, we could witness a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average, located slightly above confluence support near 1.0760.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
Gold is likely to decrease slightly then increaseGold rose toward $2,050 an ounce on Wednesday, hitting its highest levels in nearly seven months and benefitting mainly from a sharp decline in the dollar amid dovish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that current monetary settings are restrictive enough, and flagged a possible rate cut in the coming months. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also noted significant progress on inflation. Markets now see a 40% chance the Fed could start easing as early as March 2024. Elsewhere, Australia’s monthly inflation gauge slowed more than expected in October as goods prices eased. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s central bank kept the cash rate unchanged, but warned that another hike may be necessary if inflation persists. Yesterday on the golden day chart, an engulfing candle was created and RSI was in the overbought zone, stochastic was also in the overbought zone, so today we only scalped about 30-40 pips TVC:GOLD XAUUSD SELL 2048 - 2050 🟢TP1: 2044 🟢TP2: 2040 🔴SL: 2053
TVC:GOLD
by TinaTradingGold
AUDUSD is trending downThe Australian dollar reaction to this mornings retail sales report was interesting as the move back into negative territory (see economic calendar below) may suggest the Australian economy (households) are feeling the impact of the current restrictive monetary policy. Although one data point does not make a trend, if these spending habits continue to decline, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) fight against lower inflation may follow. The RBA’s Governor Bullock portrayed or more uncertain and cautious message in her statements shown below: “We're in a period where we have to be a bit careful.” “I want to avoid imposing too much and pushing up the jobless.” “We need to ensure that inflation expectations stay anchored.” “Monetary policy is restrictive and is dampening demand.” The PBoC’s Governor Pan on the other may have aided the pro-growth AUD by stating that monetary policy will remain accommodative.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
GBPUSD is trending down but still in the bullish channelThe GBP and Cable in particular has had a mixed start to the week, fluctuating between gains and losses. Markets in general were a bit slow today ahead of what is a relatively busy week on the data front. The UK, however, does not have any high impact data releases with GBP pairs likely to face external threats. The UK faces a quiet week on the data front following the UK Autumn Statement by Chancellor Hunt last week. The GBP enjoyed a decent week particularly against the Greenback. The rest of this week only has medium impact data from the UK. Last week brought PMI data which helped keep the GBP supported with a pledge by Chancellor Hunt during the Autumn statement. The Chancellor confirmed the UK Government plans to put GBP20 billion to work in the economy at a time when other countries in the Euro Area face a difficult task. These developments have left market participants a lot more cautious around rate cuts for 2024. The biggest risk facing the GBP this week will come from a host of BoE policymakers scheduled to speak.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD is trending downThe dollar index DXY, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it's the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high," he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall. Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision. After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
It is likely that gold will fall again after encountering resistGold prices climbed on Monday, buoyed by the drop in U.S. yields and the U.S. dollar’s softness. With recent performance in mind, XAU/USD has risen more than 8% since October, firmly eclipsing its 200-day simple moving average and ascending beyond the psychological $2,000 level – two technical signals that have strengthened the metal’s constructive bias. For stronger conviction in the bullish thesis and to validate the potential for further upward momentum, a clear and decisive move above $2,010/$2,015 is required – a major resistance zone that has consistently thwarted advances since the beginning of the year. While clearing this hurdle might pose a challenge for bulls, a breakout could catalyze a rally towards $2,060, followed by $2,085, May’s high. In the event that gold gets rejected to the downside from its current position, the asset might trend towards support spanning from $1,980 to $1,975. Prices could potentially stabilize in this area on a bearish reversal, but a push below this floor could lead to a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average situated around the $1,950 mark. Beneath this threshold, attention might refocus on $1,937. XAUUSD XAUUSD SELL 2016 - 2018 ✔️TP1: 2012 ✔️TP2: 2008 🚫SL: 2021
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TinaTradingGold
Downtrend when meeting resistance of GBPUSDSterling was last 0.06% lower at $1.2598, but hovered near Friday's over two-month peak of $1.2615, on data last week showing that British companies unexpectedly reported a marginal return to growth in November after three months of contraction. "That indicates the resilience of the UK economy despite the very aggressive monetary policy tightening from the Bank of England," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). "But we still expect the UK economy to weaken and experience a short-lived recession." The pound was on track for a roughly 3.7% gain for the month, its largest monthly gain in a year, aided by a falling U.S. dollar.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
1
GBPUSD will decrease when it hits resistanceGBPUSD is a bit clearer as we can see a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows this week. The question will be whether bulls have one more push to the upside and push Cable toward the 1.2600 handle. If we do break below the 50-day MA we have support at the 1.2400 mark and lower at the 1.2360 mark. A selloff ahead of the weekend may also be on the cards as this would be down to profit taking as buyers who got in during the early part of the week may want to close out before the weekend. A lot will depend on the return of liquidity tomorrow and how much risk market participants are willing to take before the weekend.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD has an uptrendThe dollar index DXY, which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.029% to 103.73, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. The index is down 2.8% for the month, on course for its weakest monthly performance in a year on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and could start cutting rates next year. Markets have dialled back expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024, with futures now showing a 26% chance that the Fed cuts its target rate at the March 2024 policy meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. That compares with a 33% chance last week. The euro stood at $1.0904, having risen 0.16% overnight after a series of preliminary surveys showed recession in Germany may be shallower than expected, which offset a downbeat reading of French business activity.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
Gold trading ideas todayWorld gold spot price is around 1,991.9 USD/ounce, down 0.92 USD/ounce compared to overnight. Gold futures price for February 2024 on the Comex New York floor is at 2,013.3 USD/ounce. However, experts commented that the decline in gold prices was stopped by expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) had ended the cycle of raising interest rates. Lower interest rates typically boost gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that falling prices are a good buying opportunity because at some point the Fed will cut interest rates. This expert predicts that the gold price will increase to 2,150 USD/ounce by the end of 2024. OANDA:XAUUSD BUY 1990 - 1988 TP1: 1995 TP2: 2000 SL : 1983
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TinaTradingGold
EURUSD's uptrend returnsThe EUR/USD currency pair remains steady around 1.0900 as markets anticipate the release of Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, with investors looking for signs of economic recovery in area. Upcoming data, expected to show manufacturing PMI at 43.4, services PMI at 48.1 and composite PMI at 46.8, could provide insight into the economic health of the US. Eurozone amid challenging global conditions. In recent statements, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel indicated that interest rates in the Eurozone may be approaching a peak, suggesting a cautious approach to further increases. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos reinforced this view by backing a data-driven approach and downplaying discussions of possible interest rate cuts in the near future. Investors and analysts will be closely watching the PMI figures for signs of the Eurozone's economic trajectory, which could influence the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions. Europe in the coming months. A better-than-expected PMI result could bolster confidence in the euro, while weaker figures could raise concerns about lingering economic headwinds in the region.
Long
by TinaTradingGold
XAUUSD : TODAY'S GOLD TRADING STRATEGY The movement in the precious metal comes amid global economic sentiment hit by a weakening US dollar and speculation about a more dovish policy stance by the Federal Reserve. The Comex gold market has been fueled by these expectations. According to forecasts from CME's Fedwatch tool, there is about a one-third chance that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as early as March of next year, with the balance expected by the end of 2023. Further affecting market dynamics is lower-than-expected US bond yields, which are currently lower than Fed interest rates. What's different is that this has brought up discussions about the possibility of demonetization in the near future. Adding to the global economic story are China's pledges to argue for fiscal measures to strengthen the economic recovery. These solutions are spearheaded by the initiatives of Finance Minister Lan Fo'an. However, the cautionary tone was also struck by Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, who warned against a slow assessment of the timing of the cake that could require prolonged high interest rates.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TinaTradingGold