GBPJPYBank of Japan to conduct unscheduled bond-buying operationFollowing the BOJ`s announcement, the 10-yr JGB yield JP10YTN=JBTC declined 0.five foundation factor to 0.855%, in advance buying and selling unchanged from Monday's last stage of 0.86%, which become the very best on account that July 2013.
Japanese yields were pulled better with the aid of using a surge in U.S. Treasury yields, with the benchmark 10-yr word US10YT=RR topping five% in a single day to attain a 16-yr high. US/
The BOJ caps the 10-yr yield at 1% beneathneath its yield curve controls (YCC), following a wonder coverage tweak on the cease of July. Although the yield stays properly beneathneath that stage, policymakers have stepped in again and again to gradual the tempo of increases.
The valuable financial institution subsequent units coverage on Oct. 31.
Signalsfree
GBPUSD is on a strong upward trendAccording to the daily chart performance below, the price of the GBP/USD (GBP/USD) currency pair is still on a broad downtrend, and as mentioned above, stability around and below the 1.2150 support is likely to be stronger. It's possible. The bears aim to provide 1.2000 psychological support as soon as possible. Trading is quiet today due to the lack of important economic information from the UK and US on the economic calendar, but we expect investor sentiment and financial market trends to react accordingly. The strongest reaction to the movement of this currency pair. Meanwhile, during the same period, breaking the resistance levels at 1.2330 and 1.2450 was critical to breaking the downtrend for the entire currency pair.
EURJPY When Japan Ends Negative Exchange Rate Policy, Treasury WA majority of the 315 respondents said that the Bank of Japan will end its unprecedented policy of keeping interest rates below zero in the first half of 2024. The move marks the end of a bold experiment Japan began in 2016. The experiment has recently put Japan at odds with other major central banks, which have aggressively tightened monetary policy to fight inflation.
What the Bank of Japan does and when it does it will affect global markets. The biggest outcome, according to MLIV Pulse respondents, is further disruption of large amounts of government debt. Higher yields in Japan would encourage Japanese investors, who own large holdings of U.S., European and Australian government bonds, to repatriate their funds.
EURUSD may return to 1.06000Although the price movement of EURUSD on the H4 time frame technically has a bearish structure, the recent price movement has seen a bullish challenge to the horizontal resistance area at 1.06000. Further upside could be seen in intraday value areas such as the horizontal resistance area at 1.06680/1.07000 before a southward reversal occurs.
GBPCAD Opposite currency pairs. That helps exchange rates increaThe Real-time Local Business Conditions Index is launched as an experimental statistic to degree enterprise pastime in actual time at some point of the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The index tracks enterprise situations in Abbotsford, Barrie, Calgary, Edmonton, Guelph, Halifax, Hamilton, Kanata, Kelowna, Kingston, Kitchener, London, Milton, Moncton, Montréal, Oshawa, Ottawa–Gatineau, Québec, Regina, Saskatoon, Sherbrooke, St. Catharines–Niagara Falls, St. John`s, Toronto, Trois-Rivières, Vancouver, Victoria, White Rock, Windsor, and Winnipeg.
A growing index displays enhancing enterprise situations in an city centre, at the same time as a declining index indicators deteriorating enterprise situations.
The index has 3 additives that integrate opportunity information reassets with Statistics Canada's information holdings: the primary is a static factor to degree the financial length of a enterprise district on the nearby level; the second one tracks working situations of the agencies in a given region; and the 0.33 measures the extent of enterprise pastime withinside the region the usage of avenue visitors information.
Next release
Data on actual-time nearby enterprise situations for October sixteen to 22 might be launched on October 27.
GBPJPY All data suggests a flag pattern is formingThe USD/JPY currency pair hit its highest weekly closing price in more than 20 years. However, he was unable to close his trade above the big round . This number is clearly a major stumbling block and is being defended, as seen by the decline in volatility as price approaches this number. This may be an important point. A breakout to the upside is more likely than a reversal to the downside, and it can be explosive because it takes time to occur.
GBPUSD UK experiencing stagflationThe pound exchange rate experienced considerable turmoil last week following the release of weak statistics. The latest blow was Friday's lower-than-expected retail sales and the result of a by-election. I'm not sure if UK politics is playing a big role at the moment so I won't delve into that right now, but last week's retail sales figures spoke for themselves, especially after inflation was higher than expected. What the data actually shows is that inflation in the UK is not currently driven by demand. Therefore, we see a drop in demand and a rise in prices, which is known as stagflation. This puts the BoE in a difficult position, as it is not as simple as raising interest rates to curb inflation, and other factors need to be considered. The Bank of England's decision in November is expected to leave interest rates at least on hold, but a modest 25 basis point rise is also expected.
ADP Automatic Data Processing Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold ADP here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADP Automatic Data Processing prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 240usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $7.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GM General Motors Company Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought GM ahead of the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain of GM General Motors Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15
for a premium of approximately $1.77.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
VZ Verizon Communications Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold VZ here:
or here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of VZ Verizon Communications prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 32usd strike price in the money Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.14.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EURUSD Good developments for tradersSince August, the market has not priced in a full rally into the November-December session.
At the end of August, the probability of an increase in November was 70% (currently down to 10%). of
The probability of a rate hike in December has fluctuated between 30% and 55% since the end of August.
Yes, WIRP has shifted further outside the curve (allowing for fewer cuts). But the reality is:
There's another reason the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5% in October from 3.8% in July.
FRB.
GBPUSD developments after the FED meetingOver time, inflation returned to 2%. New and old uncertainties complicate our challenge of balancing the risks of monetary policy being too tight with the risks of being too tight. If too little is done, above-target inflation could become entrenched and ultimately force monetary policy to contain more persistent inflation in high-employment-cost economies. Going too far can also cause unnecessary damage to the economy.
Given the uncertainties and risks and our progress, the Committee is proceeding with caution. We will decide on the extent of further policy tightening and for how long policy restrictions should remain in place, based on the overall data available, the outlook, and the balance of risks.
EURJPY The increasing trend is quite strong. Resistance can be rThe next phase of the Digital Euro project, the preparatory phase, will begin on November 1, 2023 and initially last for two years. This includes defining the rules for a digital euro and selecting providers that can develop the infrastructure and platform for a digital euro. This also includes testing and experimentation to develop a digital euro that meets both Eurosystem requirements and user needs, for example in terms of user experience, data protection, inclusive finance, and environmental footprint. . The ECB will continue to work with the public and all stakeholders during this period. After two years, the Council will decide whether to proceed with the next preparatory steps that will pave the way for the issuance and launch of a future digital euro.
EURUSD Many disadvantages for the USDIt’s been an abnormal week for the US Dollar so far. While the bullish trend took over for much of the past three months, the current weekly bar is showing as an inside bar with the entirety of this week’s range contained inside of the prior week. This isn’t necessarily abnormal, but it does speak to the overbought nature of the move as we came into the month of October and for the past two weeks, bulls have been unable to push up to a fresh high to continue that move, even with some strong data in the form of a Non-farm Payrolls report and a very strong outing for retail sales earlier this week. But there is great potential next week
GBPCAD The UK economy is recovering stronglyAfter increasing 1.9% month-on-month in August, the IPPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in September.
Energy and petroleum product prices rose 3.7% month-on-month in September, leading to an increase in the IPPI. Price movements for refined products were mixed. Diesel prices rose by 7.0% and gasoline prices fell by 2.3%. Crude oil, the raw material for these products, rose 9.9%. The rise in diesel fuel prices was also due to low distillate stocks in the United States and Europe. On September 21, Russia announced temporary restrictions on diesel and gasoline exports, which also contributed to the rise in global diesel prices.
GBPJPY Inflation in Japan is getting worse and won't stopToday, October 20, the Japanese government will begin a meeting expected to last almost two months to decide on a number of new policies, including those related to economic stimulus.
In particular, opposition parties are proposing economic stimulus measures such as providing 30,000 yen in cash to low- and middle-income households.
The meeting is considered extremely important for Kishida's administration, as his approval rating is at its lowest level since he took office. The policies he advocates are likely to determine his re-election.
AXP American Express Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AXP American Express Company prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 155usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-19,
for a premium of approximately $7.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
GBPCAD The UK economy is gradually stabilizingA recent survey by market research firm Ipsos found that two-thirds of Canadian respondents have given up on plans to own a home. Additionally, three-quarters believe that buying a home is a privilege for the wealthy. And 71% said the real estate crisis is still ongoing.
"The dream of homeownership is becoming a nightmare for an entire generation of Canadians," said Sean Simpson, vice president at Ipsos. The Ipsos survey surveyed Canadians of all ages, including those who already own a home. Sean Simpson said the results reflect Canada's attitude that homeownership is becoming increasingly unaffordable, especially for young people.
Federal government data also suggests younger Canadians may be leaving the housing market. According to a Statistics Canada report last week, outstanding mortgage debt is
GBPUSD UK economy in crisisAccording to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the UK is the only G7 country whose inflation rate is still rising.
The UK's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 7.9% in May over the same period, up slightly from 7.8% in April, according to the OECD. Meanwhile, the remaining G7 countries, including the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, all see inflation slowing.
Across the G7 group, inflation fell to 4.6% in May from 5.4% in April, the lowest level since September 2021. Many major central banks are beginning to consider suspending interest rate hikes as prices cool down.
CADCHF CANADA's inflation is decreasing slightlyThe Canadian Dollar fell against the majority of G10 currencies following the release of data that showed inflation in Canada was slowing faster than economists expected.
Canadian CPI inflation rose 3.8% year-on-year in September, said Statistics Canada, which makes for a sharp decrease from 4.0% in August and was below expectations for a reading of 4.0%. The month-on-month change stood at -0.1%, which was below expectations for 0.1% and 0.4% recorded in August.
Meanwhile, Core CPI was down 0.1% m/m in August (2.8% y/y), while the trimmed CPI measure was at 3.7% y/y, below the 3.8% expected by markets and 3.9% previously.
CADJPY Recovery of currency exchange after inflationBanks and financial institutions buy and sell currencies with each other - these large institutions are the 'market' and the rate they trade at is the 'market rate'. The difference between the amount being bought and sold is the spread, which is essentially the difference between the buy and sell price.
However, when currency is sold by banks to retail customers, the spread increases significantly and the profit from the transaction is therefore significantly larger.
Therefore, when we focus on money transfer fees when sending money abroad, we often ignore the biggest cost: exchange rate differences.
GBPCAD Abuse of the CANADA currency but will quickly recoverThe CAD's fall reflects a bearish market bias based on the likelihood that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates: British Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate under pressure as Canada unleashes inflation thanks to some lower-than-expected UK payroll figures, but it recovered to trade steady on the day at 1.6617.
Dips continue to be buying opportunities, and I don’t think tha As long as the Bank of Japan tries to keep its interest rates as low as they are, the Japanese yen will be one of the least favorite currencies by traders to own.
With the massive interest rate differential, you get paid to hang on to this pair, and I think that will end up being one of the major drivers of where we go next. In other words, it just makes more sense to own the British pound and it does the Japanese yen. Dips continue to be buying opportunities, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon.