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XAUUSD : Gold will have a reversal todayAfter only 2 consecutive falling sessions, world gold price (XAU/USD) has dropped more than 100 USD if calculated from the high on May 22. Since the historic peak of 2,450 USD, XAU/USD has dropped more than 120 USD in just 4 sessions. Gold has been at a disadvantage since Wednesday's hawkish FOMC meeting minutes. Just yesterday, preliminary PMI data were released with a spike in the services sector, which accounts for about two-thirds of US economic activity. Data shows the US economy remains strong, despite high interest rates, further pushing back investor expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates soon this year. TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said that although the greenback's recovery and the weakening interest rate outlook have triggered a sell-off in the gold market, the correction will not be too deep. According to him, gold is adjusting to the view that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, while at this meeting, the Fed mentioned the possibility of raising interest rates if inflation remains "persistent". UBS Bank recently raised its gold price forecast to 2,600 USD by the end of 2024 and advised investors to wait to buy at about 2,300 USD or lower.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold turned down sharply after the FOMC meetingClosing the trading session on May 22, spot gold price decreased 1.8% to more than 2,377 USD/ounce after hitting a historic high of 2,450 USD/ounce on May 20. Calculated from the intraday high of 2,426 USD/ounce, spot gold price has decreased by about 50 USD/ounce. Gold futures contracts also decreased 1.4% to nearly 2,393 USD/ounce. As of the time of writing, spot gold prices continue to be under selling pressure, reaching a low of 2,366 USD/ounce. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco Metals, said the market is seeing some sustained liquidation during the week, with some short-term futures traders taking profits. This is completely normal when gold prices reach new peaks. "Tomorrow will be an important trading day and gold prices need to recover immediately, otherwise there will be a strong correction in the short term," Mr. Wyckoff added. The newly released minutes of the FOMC meeting shocked the gold market, leading to a wave of strong selling. According to the minutes, Fed officials expressed concern about persistent inflation in the first quarter of 2024. Some even favored further tightening of monetary policy if inflation continued to exceed expectations. . In addition, the minutes also revealed the Fed's view that it will take more time than expected to bring inflation to the target level of 2%. This makes many investors worry that the Fed's interest rate cutting roadmap may be delayed. Compared to previous sessions, this time's minutes were considered much more "hawkish", demonstrating the lack of confidence of some Fed officials about the current level of inflation control. While acknowledging that inflation has fallen over the past year, the minutes also note that there has been no significant progress in achieving the 2% inflation target in recent months. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows that inflation is showing signs of decreasing. However, Fed policymakers emphasized that a single data point or monthly report is not enough to accurately assess trends. Therefore, the Fed will likely wait a few more months to monitor the next reports and ensure that inflation has been effectively controlled before considering reducing interest rates.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SantaTradeGold
Gold is falling to create momentum to increase again ?Gold prices decreased because US government bond yields increased after the Fed meeting minutes. Gold prices fell sharply when US government bond yields increased and the greenback appreciated. The 10-year US government bond yield increased 2 basis points to 4.43%, while the DXY index increased 0.19% to 104.82, an obstacle for gold. FOMC minutes showed that Fed officials remain uncertain about the extent of policy tightening. They added that "it will take more time than expected to have more confidence in inflation falling to 2%." During the week, speeches by Fed officials laid the groundwork for the "hawkish stance" of the FOMC Minutes, as most officials said they wanted to be sure that inflation was coming down and that they were in no hurry. lower interest rates. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows investors are expecting the Fed to cut interest rates by 31 basis points by the end of the year.
TVC:GOLD
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold will be an interesting thing in this marketSince the shock increase and decrease on Monday following the speeches of Fed officials, the gold price (XAU/USD) has had almost no significant fluctuations, fluctuating around 2,420 USD/ounce. Many experts believe that the reason gold does not fluctuate much after officials' hawkish speeches is because the Fed's monetary policy only has a secondary impact on gold prices. Currently, investors are still concerned about inflation risks, economic instability along with geopolitics and that makes them rush into this precious metal to hedge against risks. According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), since the beginning of the year, gold prices have increased more than 16%, reaching a record high of 2,450 USD/ounce earlier this week. Some experts believe that gold prices will increase further. Citibank analysts recently optimistically commented that gold could reach 3,000 USD/ounce within the next 6 - 18 months. Despite that optimism, most are not sure when gold will hit the $3,000/ounce mark. The driving force that can bring gold to that level is probably the "nod" to loosen monetary policy from the Fed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
Gold will create a big surprise at the end of the yearGold prices have risen to a new all-time high, hitting $2,440 in the morning and $2,450 in the afternoon Vietnam time due to shelter demand as geopolitical tensions increase. According to Reuters, the reason is that Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, and other high-ranking Iranian politicians were killed in a helicopter crash in the North of the country over the weekend. This increases instability in an already tense region because of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Factors supporting gold prices Geopolitical tensions escalate: Russia opens a second front in Kharkiv and close ties between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Putin's recent visit to Beijing add to concerns about the formation of a new order, seriously affecting world peace and free trade. Demand from BRICS countries and central banks in emerging economies: According to the IMF, gold demand from BRICS countries and central banks in emerging economies has increased significantly in recent years as a preventive measure against Western sanctions. This trend is expected to continue to increase in light of recent instability in the world. Expectations for a Fed rate cut: Gold also benefits from the general expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates at their current high levels for longer. This is beneficial for gold because it will reduce the opportunity cost of holding this non-interest-bearing asset compared to USD or government bonds. April CPI and Retail Sales data: This change in outlook comes from April CPI and Retail Sales data released last week. Although Fed members are still avoiding revealing when the Fed might cut interest rates, the market still predicts a 65% chance that the Fed will cut the first time in September, based on the CME FedWatch tool. Currently, Fed Chairman Jefferson will give his final speech of this Monday. However, there probably won't be too many fluctuations because the previous three speeches seem to partly reflect the Fed's current hawkish stance and gold prices have also dropped sharply from the historic peak of 2,450 USD.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
2
XAUUSD : Gold increased and decreased unusually stronglyWorld gold prices (XAU/USD) soared yesterday, reaching 2,440 USD in the morning session, then had another increase, reaching a new high again at 2,450 USD in the afternoon session and holding near this mark before when it fell sharply after the somewhat hawkish speech of Fed officials in the evening session. Kitco Metals experts said that the news that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a plane crash has raised concerns and that has triggered the role of precious metals as a haven. Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is among the experts who are bullish on gold in the short term. According to him, both the USD and US government bond yields seem to be in a downward trend and that will provide support for this precious metal. Besides, gold surpassing the psychological threshold of 2,400 USD/ounce will be a stepping stone for this precious metal towards the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. In addition, Senior Market Strategist Daniel Pavilonis of RJO Futures said that, in addition to "persistent" inflation, the US public debt burden is also a factor driving gold's recovery. With the same opinion, experts from ROTH Capital Partners also predict that gold prices will increase further in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold has hit an all-time highWorld gold prices (XAU/USD) skyrocketed this morning, reaching 2,440 USD/ounce before retreating again at around 08:10 Vietnam time. In the absence of information at the beginning of the week and expectations that were almost completely reflected last week, gold prices seem to be reacting with some new momentum. Kitco News' latest weekly gold survey results show the majority of experts believe gold prices could reach or surpass all-time highs, while retail traders are cautious. this precious metal. Market strategist Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management is among the experts who are bullish on gold in the short term. According to him, both the USD and US government bond yields seem to be in a downward trend and that will provide support for this precious metal. Besides, gold surpassing the psychological threshold of 2,400 USD/ounce will be a stepping stone for this precious metal towards the 2,500 USD/ounce mark. With the same opinion, ROTH Capital Partners analysts also predict that gold prices will increase even higher in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
Gold officially set a historic peak, surpassing the 2,440 mark!Gold has just set a new all-time high, as investor demand across the entire market skyrocketed due to growing confidence that the US will cut interest rates this year. Gold bullion increased 1.1%, reaching $2,440.59/oz early in the Asian session, surpassing the previous record set in April. This price increase is said to be due to traders becoming increasingly confident that the Fed may reduce interest rates as early as September this year. The dollar fell and US government bonds rose sharply last week, after data released on Wednesday showed April inflation fell more than expected. This is supportive for gold, a precious metal that does not yield interest and is priced in USD.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
2
XAUUSD : Gold will reach its all-time highWorld gold price (XAU/USD) decreased slightly yesterday after increasing to nearly reach 2,400 USD/ounce. According to experts, the reason may be due to profit-taking pressure after the strong increase the previous day. In addition, the recovery of the USD is also detrimental to gold. In the short term, the combination of stable inflation and weakness in other economic data such as retail sales actually provides positive support for gold. In the long term, according to Ms. Gita Gopinath, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, gold is increasingly asserting its position in a context full of potential economic and political risks. Gold demand has increased steadily because the precious metal is considered a "politically neutral haven asset that can be stored domestically and avoid sanctions or confiscation." With the same opinion, ROTH Capital Partners analysts also predict that gold prices will increase even higher in the coming months, even exceeding 2,600 USD/ounce.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
GOLD : Gold will continue to increase to the highest levelGold prices are in a slight decline. The reason may be due to profit taking after increasing by more than 1% the previous day. The release of lower-than-expected US CPI and Retail Sales data for April has led to a change in expectations about the Fed's future interest rate path - an important factor contributing to the direction of gold prices. . Lower-than-expected CPI data shows signs of cooling inflation, meaning the time for the Fed to lower interest rates may come sooner. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 75% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates from its September meeting. This number is much higher than the 65% level before the announcement, according to FXStreet editor Lallalit Srijandorn. However, the outlook for the precious metal remains positive as demand from central banks - especially in emerging markets - continues to be strong, geopolitical risks remain present and trade concerns remain strong. Global trade is unstable due to political factors. In fact, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), gold demand increased 3% to 1,238 tons in Q1, the strongest increase since 2016.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold has the ability to reach new heightsMore progress in deflation remains to be seen Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee welcomed the drop in inflation in April but said deflation progress needs to be firmer. Speaking Wednesday after the CPI excluding food and energy prices fell for the first time in six months, Goolsbee expected more such good data to come before making a decision to cut interest rates. “Inflation data improved quite a bit compared to what we expected, but still higher than where it was in the second half of last year,” Goolsbee said in an interview on the radio show Marketplace. “Because So, more progress still needs to be recorded in the deflation process.” The Chicago Fed president, who is not voting on policy this year, called the deflationary path bumpy and pointed to housing inflation as a key indicator he is watching. Fed officials have downgraded expectations for a first rate cut, stressing the need to keep rates high for longer amid persistent inflation.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : The USD continues to weakenThe USD plummeted as expectations of the Fed lowering interest rates increased after US inflation data The dollar slid to a multi-month low on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit a three-year low and retail sales were flat, raising expectations of lower interest rates in the economy. largest economy in the world. US government bonds recovered after economic data along with the sell-off of Japanese bonds. The gap between US and Japanese 10-year government bond yields narrowed nearly 20bps this week. The DXY index recorded its biggest decline of the year, falling 0.75% and penetrating below the MA 200 line. DXY is currently trading around its 5-week low at 104.17 at the beginning of the Asian session.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : The USD will continue to weakenOn the morning of May 15, the State Bank (SBV) announced the central exchange rate USD/VND at 24,269 VND, an increase of 3 VND. The exchange rate range allowed for transactions at Commercial Banks ranges from 23,400 - 25,450 VND. The USD/VND exchange rate was also brought to the trading range of 23,400 - 25,450 VND by the SBV Exchange. This morning's exchange rate increased slightly at commercial banks. Specifically, Vietcombank has a buying level of 25,152 and a selling level of 25,482, an increase of 3 dong in both buying and selling directions compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, the exchange rate on the free market increased more strongly. In Hanoi at 05:15, the exchange rate fluctuated around 25,768 - 25,848 VND, an increase of 10 VND on the buying side and an increase of 20 VND on the selling side compared to yesterday. The DXY index yesterday almost lost the 105.00 mark after the PPI data was released. Currency pairs also fluctuated accordingly, even the USD/VND exchange rate in the forex market also decreased sharply. However, somehow miraculously, the listed exchange rate still increased slightly.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
XAUUSD : Gold is pushing towards record territoryGold prices steady amid mixed US PPI data, investors ready for tonight's CPI data Gold's rally continues after falling on Monday at $2,357, but has yet to surpass the recent high of $2,378, recorded on May 10. This could cause the XAU/ USD moves sideways within a certain price range. According to the RSI indicator, the current trend is beneficial for investors holding gold. Therefore, the first level of resistance for XAU/USD will be the high of May 10, which is $2,378. If surpassed, the next level will be $2,400, followed immediately by the April 19 high of $2,417 and the historical peak of $2,431. Conversely, if bears prevail and push the price below $2,359, it could lead to a decline to the May 9 low of $2,306, then to $2,300. Once crossed, the next stop will be the 50-day SMA at $2,249.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SantaTradeGold
DXY : USD is forecast to weaken at the end of the yearFor USD, the weekend before May 10, the SBV announced the central exchange rate of 24,271 VND, an increase of 6 VND compared to the previously listed rate, the reference exchange rate at the SBV Exchange was at 23,400 - 25,450 VND. . Buying prices at commercial banks currently fluctuate between 25,120 - 25,225 VND while selling prices reach 25,484 VND. On the black market, the buying and selling price of USD is at 25,670 - 25,750 VND. Despite trading in a week lacking directional data, the DXY index remained quite volatile and overall had a bullish week of trading. The index is currently still trading above the key support level of 105.00 at the time of writing. This week, the market will be quite busy when the US economic calendar thickens with PPI, CPI and Retail Sales,... announced. Most important will be the CPI, which has a significant influence on market expectations of the Fed cutting interest rates.
TVC:DXYShort
by SantaTradeGold
Gold is likely to continue to increase strongly todayGold price (XAU/USD) began to increase in price in the US session on May 9, rising to nearly 2,350 USD, after a number of major central banks decided to cut interest rates or signaled the possibility of strong cuts. more in the future. In addition, geopolitical risks along with increased demand from Asian central banks and investors also create momentum for gold. This morning, May 10, world gold continued to increase slightly, currently trading above 2,350 USD. Perhaps this unexpected increase is part of the reason why the domestic gold price reached a new historic peak. The SPDR Gold Shares fund has had no new structural activity for 2 consecutive days, holdings remained unchanged at 830.47 tons.
TVC:GOLDLong
by SantaTradeGold