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Gold & Silver Soar: Trade War RallyAnatomy of a Rally: How US-China Trade Tensions Propelled Gold to Record Highs and Lifted Silver Introduction The global financial landscape is frequently reshaped by geopolitical events, and few have cast as long a shadow in recent memory as the trade tensions between the United States and China. During periods of heightened friction, characterized by escalating tariffs, retaliatory measures, and pervasive economic uncertainty, markets often witness significant shifts in asset allocation. One of the most prominent beneficiaries during such times is gold. This document explores the dynamics behind gold prices reaching record highs amidst a US-China trade war, examining the multifaceted reasons for its ascent and noting the concurrent, significant rise in silver prices, which often move in tandem with the yellow metal due to overlapping market drivers. The US-China Trade War: A Catalyst for Uncertainty The trade conflict between the world's two largest economies represents more than just a dispute over tariffs and trade balances. It embodies a fundamental clash over technology, intellectual property, global influence, and differing economic models. The imposition of tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods creates direct economic consequences: 1. Increased Costs: Businesses face higher import costs, which can be absorbed (reducing profits), passed onto consumers (potentially fueling inflation), or lead to shifts in supply chains (causing disruption and inefficiency). 2. Reduced Trade Flows: Tariffs act as barriers, potentially dampening global trade volumes and impacting export-oriented economies. 3. Economic Growth Concerns: The uncertainty surrounding future trade policies makes businesses hesitant to invest and expand, potentially leading to slower global economic growth or even recessionary fears. 4. Supply Chain Disruptions: Companies reliant on cross-border supply chains face significant operational challenges, needing to find alternative suppliers or routes, often at higher costs and lower efficiency. 5. Currency Volatility: Trade disputes can lead to fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly involving the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, adding another layer of risk for international businesses and investors. This pervasive uncertainty becomes a powerful driver pushing investors towards assets perceived as safe. Gold: The Quintessential Safe Haven Gold's reputation as a safe-haven asset is deeply ingrained in financial history. During times of economic stress, political instability, or market turmoil, investors flock to gold for several key reasons, all amplified by a US-China trade war: 1. Store of Value: Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued by inflation or government policy, gold is seen as retaining its intrinsic value over the long term. Fears that trade wars could lead to competitive currency devaluations or necessitate inflationary monetary policies (like extensive quantitative easing) make gold particularly attractive. 2. Hedging Against Uncertainty: When the outlook for traditional assets like stocks and bonds becomes cloudy due to geopolitical risks like a trade war, gold offers a perceived refuge. Its price often exhibits a low or negative correlation to equity markets during downturns, making it valuable for portfolio diversification. 3. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Major international conflicts or tensions invariably add a risk premium to gold prices. A trade war between global superpowers significantly elevates perceived geopolitical risk, prompting safe-haven buying. 4. Weakening US Dollar Potential: While the US dollar itself can act as a safe haven, a protracted trade war could raise questions about the US economic outlook or lead to policies aimed at weakening the dollar to boost exports. Since gold is typically priced in US dollars globally, a weaker dollar generally makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially increasing demand and pushing the dollar price higher. 5. Central Bank Demand: In an environment of heightened geopolitical tension and questions surrounding the dominance of the US dollar, central banks (particularly those in emerging markets or nations seeking to reduce reliance on the USD) often increase their gold reserves. This diversification strategy provides a steady source of demand, underpinning prices. A US-China trade conflict could accelerate this trend among various nations. 6. The Mechanics of the Price Surge The record high in gold prices isn't just a passive reaction; it's driven by active market dynamics: • Increased Investor Demand: Retail and institutional investors increase allocations to gold through physical bullion, gold futures contracts, and gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Large inflows into major gold ETFs are often a visible indicator of this heightened demand. • Speculative Activity: Traders in the futures market anticipate further price increases driven by the ongoing trade tensions and safe-haven flows, adding upward momentum. • Sentiment: Market psychology plays a crucial role. As prices rise and news headlines focus on the trade war and gold's rally, a positive feedback loop can emerge, drawing in more buyers afraid of missing out (FOMO). Silver's Ascent: Riding Gold's Coattails and Its Own Merits Silver prices registering a steep rise alongside gold during such a period is a common phenomenon, though its drivers are slightly more complex: 1. Monetary Asset Correlation: Silver, like gold, has a long history as a monetary metal and store of value. It often trades as "poor man's gold," attracting investors seeking safe-haven exposure at a lower price point per ounce. During strong gold rallies driven by macroeconomic fear, silver typically follows suit. 2. Industrial Demand Component: Unlike gold, silver has significant industrial applications (electronics, solar panels, medical devices). This is a double-edged sword during a trade war. While safe-haven demand pulls prices up, fears of a trade-war-induced global economic slowdown could theoretically dampen industrial demand, potentially capping silver's gains relative to gold. However, in scenarios where safe-haven buying dominates market sentiment, this factor often takes a backseat initially. 3. Higher Volatility: Silver markets are smaller and typically more volatile than gold markets. This means that significant inflows driven by safe-haven sentiment can lead to sharper percentage gains (and potentially sharper losses during corrections) compared to gold. The "steep rise" noted is characteristic of silver's higher beta. 4. Gold-Silver Ratio: Traders often watch the gold-silver ratio (the number of silver ounces needed to buy one ounce of gold). When this ratio reaches historical extremes, some investors may buy silver, betting that it is undervalued relative to gold and that the ratio will revert closer to its historical mean. A major gold rally can stretch this ratio, triggering such trades and boosting silver demand. Global Trends and Context While the US-China trade war serves as a potent catalyst, it often occurs within a broader context of global trends that can support precious metal prices. These might include accommodative monetary policies from major central banks (low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold), existing geopolitical hotspots beyond the US-China relationship, concerns about sovereign debt levels, or nascent inflationary pressures. The trade war acts as an accelerant, amplifying the impact of these underlying factors on gold and silver. Conclusion The surge of gold prices to record highs during a period marked by an intense US-China trade war is a textbook example of the metal fulfilling its traditional role as a premier safe-haven asset. The conflict breeds deep economic uncertainty, stokes fears of currency devaluation, heightens geopolitical risk perception, and potentially influences central bank reserve policies – all factors that historically drive capital towards gold. The simultaneous sharp rise in silver prices underscores its strong correlation with gold as a monetary asset, benefiting from the same wave of risk aversion, albeit with the added complexity of its industrial demand profile. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors navigating volatile periods, highlighting gold's enduring appeal as a portfolio diversifier and a refuge when storm clouds gather over the global economy, particularly when sparked by friction between major world powers.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
SILVER Massive Long! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SILVER below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 29.588 Bias -Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 31.319 Safe Stop Loss - 28.754 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
2
Gold’s deleveraging pullback spurs fresh demandSpot gold's initial response to the steepest US trade barriers in more than 100 years was a move to a fresh record high of USD 3,167 per troy ounce on heightened inflation risks, before surging volatility in response to collapsing stock markets saw traders turn their attention to capital preservation and deleveraging—the dash-for-cash focus hurt all leveraged positions across the commodities sector, including those in silver, which experienced a brutal 16.5% top-to-bottom slump, but also bullion, which despite its safe haven label during times of turmoil fell by around 4% before finding solid support around USD 2,950. As the dust begins to settle following one of the worst risk reduction periods in recent years, demand for silver and especially gold has re-emerged, with gold has reaching a fresh all-time-high above USD 3,200, while silver has managed to retrace half of what was lost during the first week of April, both strongly suggesting that underlying concerns remain. A combination of heightened global economic tensions, the risk of stagflation – a combination of lower employment, growth and rising inflation - a weaker dollar, will, in our opinion, continue to support bullion, and to a certain extent also silver. Adding to this is a market that is now aggressively positioning for the Fed to deliver more cuts this year—at current count more than 75 basis points of easing by year-end, and not least continued demand from central banks and high net worth individuals looking to reduce or hedge their exposure to US government bonds and the dollar. With all the mentioned developments in mind, we maintain our forecast for gold reaching a minimum of USD 3,300 this year, while silver, given its industrious exposure and recession worries, may struggle to materially outperform gold as we had previously forecast. Instead, based on the XAU/XAG ratio returning below 90 from above 100 currently, we see silver eventually making it higher towards USD 37.
SAXO:XAUUSD
by Saxo
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-11 : Break-Away in CarryoverToday's Break-away pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move (break) away from yesterday's Body range. I believe this trend, after the recent Ultimate Low in price, will be to the upside. I know a lot of people are asking, "why do you think the markets are going to rally now - after you suggested the markets would trend downward?" Things have changed now that we have a 90-day pause in the tariff wars. Yes, China is still an issue - but the rest of the world seems to have a pause on the tariff wars as negotiations continue. I believe the removal of the tariff pressure on the markets will result in a moderate upward trend as we move into Q1:2025 earnings season. Still, I don't believe we will see new ATHs anytime soon. But I do believe the 580+ level on the SPY is a potential high price level that can be reached before the end of April 2025. Gold and Silver are moving into a GAP trend move today. I believe the GAP will be to the upside and I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally. Silver is really low in terms of comparison to Gold. Silver could make a very big move to the upside over the next 30+ days. BTCUSD is still consolidating into the narrow range I suggested would happen before the bigger breakdown event near the end of April (into early May). Everything is playing out just as I expected. The big change is the removal of the tariffs for 75+ nations (for now). That will give the markets some room to the upside and we need to understand how price structure is playing out into an A-B-C wave structure. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
22
SILVER rising trendline support retest Silver maintains a bullish sentiment, in line with the prevailing uptrend. Recent intraday price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially retesting the previous consolidation zone for support. Key Level: 3090 This zone represents a significant area of prior consolidation and now acts as a key support level. Bullish Scenario: A pullback toward 3090 followed by a bullish bounce would confirm continued upside momentum. Immediate resistance targets include 3266, with extended upside potential toward 3350 and 3450 over the longer term. Bearish Alternative: A confirmed breakdown and daily close below 3090 would negate the current bullish outlook. This would open the door for a deeper retracement toward 3028, followed by 2945. Conclusion: Silver remains technically bullish while trading above 3090. A successful retest and rebound from this level would support further upside. However, a daily close below 3090 would shift sentiment bearish in the short term, increasing the risk of a deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAGUSD
by TradeNation
XAG/USD Climbs on FOMC WorriesSilver prices climbed above $31 per ounce on Thursday, extending gains for a second straight session as commodities rebounded following President Trump’s rollback of his reciprocal tariff policy. The new measure lowers tariffs on most trade partners to 10% for 90 days to support negotiations. However, China, a key silver consumer, still faces a steep 125% tariff, keeping geopolitical tensions elevated and sustaining safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, FOMC minutes revealed growing concerns about stagflation and the impact of Trump’s trade agenda on the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Resistance starts at 31.50; if breached, the next levels are 32.15 and 33.30. Support sits at 30.20, with 29.50 and 29.20 below if that level gives way.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Silver at a Crossroads: More Pain or a Rally Above 34?Silver is undergoing a potential trend change. The previous yellow uptrend channel has been broken, and a new, nearly flat-slightly downward channel (marked by blue lines) appears to be forming. While it may be too early to confirm this as an established trend, the structure is developing with increasing clarity. Silver is now at a crossroads. The former trendline is being retested, and just above it lies a confluence of resistance: a previous demand zone and the 200-day moving average. These former support levels have now merged into a strong resistance area. Unless this resistance zone is broken, downward pressure is likely to persist. However, a breakout could open the door for a medium-term move toward the 34 level. Please check gold/silver chart for longer term understanding:
OANDA:XAGUSD
by ftdsystem
SILVER: Local Bullish Bias! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 30.949 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 31.206.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-10 : FLAT-DOWN PatternToday's Flat-Down Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will struggle to move away from yesterday's big open-close range. Normally, I would suggest the Flat-Down pattern will be a small, somewhat FLAT price move. But, after yesterday's big move, the Flat-Down pattern can really be anywhere within yesterday's Daily Body range. So, we could see very wild volatility today. That means we need to be prepared for general price consolidation (which suggests somewhat sideways price trending) and be prepared for some potential BIG price trends within that consolidation. These BIG price trends would be more like bursts of trending, while still staying somewhat consolidated overall. Watch today's video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak pattern is dominating the trend right now (in the Consolidation Phase). The same thing is happening in BTCUSD. BTCUSD has been in an EPP Consolidation phase for over 35+ days now. Gold and Silver are setting up a CRUSH pattern today. That could be a VERY BIG move higher (or downward). Given my analysis of Gold acting like a hedge (a proper hedge for global risk levels), I believe today's move will EXPLODE higher. Gold is already in an early-stage parabolic bullish price trend. When gold explodes above $3500, I believe it will quickly gain momentum towards the $5100 level. Right now, Gold is recovering from the Tariff news and about to explode upward (above $3200) if we see this CRUSH pattern play out well. Thank you again for all the great compliments. I'm just trying to share my knowledge and skills with all of you before I die. There is no need to carry all of this great information and technology to my grave. So, follow along, ask questions, learn, and PROFIT while I keep doing this. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
16
Silver Remains Volatile Amid Trade War and Recession FearsSilver stayed above $30.50 per ounce on strong safe-haven demand amid U.S.-China trade tensions. Prices held a 3.5% gain after President Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause and a 10% rate for all but China, which now faces a 125% tariff. China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, and the EU approved duties on €21 billion of American exports. Fed minutes showed concerns about stagflation and the impact of Trump’s trade policies. Markets now await March U.S. inflation data on Thursday for clues on the Fed’s next move. Technically, the first resistance level is located at 31.50. In case of its breach 32.15 and 33.30 could be monitored respectively. On the downside, the first support is at 30.20. 29.50 and 29.20 would become the next support levels if this level is passed.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
by ChartMage
Silver H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 31.98 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 33.30 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 30.49 which is a pullback support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:XAGUSDShort
by Tradu
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance UpdateToday's big rally, prompted by Trump's Tariff comments, presents a real learning opportunity for traders and followers of my videos. Everyone wants to know what's going to happen next. This video will tell you what I believe is NEXT for the markets and why. It should also reinforce the construct that price is the ultimate indicator and the use of the EPP/Cradle patterns as a mechanism for using price structure to attempt to identify where opportunities may exist. As much as this video is an analysis of price action and a prediction of what may come next, it is also a tutorial showing you how to use price patterns, structure and context to attempt to plan for your next opportunities. Ideally, the next phase of the market is to establish a consolidation range. If the 480-525 lower consolidation range does not hold - then it will likely become a precursor of the July breakdown (support) level. Remember, we still have the July/Oct lows to deal with. I fully expect the 550-575 consolidation range to become the new dominant consolidation phase for the current EPP pattern. It makes sense to me that, absent any crazy tariff war, the most likely outcome will be for the markets to recover back to the 550-575 level and to consolidate further. The last component we have to consider is the recent lows near 480 could have been a very quick breakdown to an Ultimate Low. If that is the case, then we'll most into a mode of seeking the next higher resistance level and I believe the 550 or 575 level would be the obvious next resistance level. So, at this point, I believe the continuation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern is likely, but the price is actively seeking the consolidation range between the lower consolidation level and the upper consolidation level. Price MUST establish the consolidation range, or INVALIDATE this pattern, in order to move onto the next pattern/phase. Get Some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
12
Trump's Tariff Wars : Why It Is Critical To Address Global TradeThis video, a continuation of the Trump's Tariff Wars video I created last week, tries to show you why it is critically important that we, as a nation, address the gross imbalances related to US trade to global markets that are resulting in a $1.5-$1.8 TRILLION deficit every fiscal year. There has been almost NOTHING done about this since Trump's last term as President. Our politicians are happy to spend - spend - spend - but none of them are worries about the long-term fiscal health of the US. (Well, some of them are worried about it - but the others seem to be completely ignorant of the risks related to the US). Trump is raising this issue very early into his second term as president to protect ALL AMERICANS. He is trying to bring the issue into the news to highlight the imbalances related to US trade throughout the world. When some other nation is taking $300B a year from the us with an unfair tariff rate - guess what, we need to make that known to the American consumer because we are the ones that continue to pay that nation the EXTRA every year. Do you want to keep paying these other nations a grossly inefficient amount for cheap trinkets, or do you want our politicians and leaders to take steps to balance the trade deficits more efficiently so we don't pass on incredible debt levels to our children and grandchildren? So many people simply don't understand what is at risk. Short-term - the pain may seem excessive, but it may only last 30, 60, 90 days. Long-term - if we don't address this issue and resolve it by negotiating better trade rates, this issue will destroy the strength of the US economy, US Dollar, and your children's future. Simply put, we can't keep going into debt without a plan to attempt to grow our GDP. The solution to this imbalance is to grow our economy and to raise taxes on the uber-wealthy. We have to grow our revenues and rebalance our global trade in an effort to support the growth of the US economy. And, our politicians (till now) have been more than happy to ignore this issue and hide it from the American people. They simply didn't care to discuss it or deal with it. Trump brought this to the table because it is important. I hope you now see HOW important it really is. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
19