Strifor || GBPUSD-US CPIPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: The British currency is also expected to boost amid the publication of US CPI data . This is the most likely scenario and is indicated on the chart as scenario №1 . Login is expected just before the data is published. One can especially consider buy-position through pending orders if the price immediately falls to 1.25396 . Near this level, one can accumulate a buy-position with a target at the level of 1.27000 (scenario №2).
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Silver
Strifor || USDCAD-16/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: All of our previous trading ideas against the US dollar are currently fixed at take profit, however, we continue to adhere to the short-term priority of selling the US currency. At the moment, the USDCAD currency pair is one of the most promising for a short trade, since there is the fact of a rollback and, accordingly, a large distance for potential profit.
The best and most likely scenario is to consider selling at the highest current prices (scenario №1). In addition, within the framework of scenario №2 , you can consider entering from the level of 1.36557 . The target of the fall is still the same level of 1.36000.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Strifor || SILVER-17/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The previous long trade in silver was successfully closed at take profit, but we continue to actively adhere to short-term buy priority. Current prices are perfect for this and one can safely consider purchases with a goal of at least level 31 (scenario №1).
In the event of a sharp change in market sentiment, one can consider entering a long position as part of a re-test of the level 29.77800 (scenario №2).
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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ARTGPosting an updated idea for Artemis Gold here with my most recent price targets of 5.50, 6.50 and 8.50 but i think it will go higher than that . The ascending triangle / accumulation pattern looks ready to break out, the fundamentals are solid as they secure permits for mine production most recently from the fisheries branch . ARTG has over 62 million ounces of proven silver reserves and possibly over 100 mil and is one of my top picks for appreciation in this silver bull market . Watching this one closely .
www.artemisgoldinc.com
SILVER (SILN2024, XAGUSD)... BULLISH BIAS!Bias is Bullish.
The reaction to news and world
events was enough where there
was no need for the +FVG to be
mitigated before the rally.
Lots of momentum in that move.
All HTFs are bullish.
Although we selll above highs as
a general rule
Expectations are for the DOL to
be reached over the next week
or so, as price grinds higher.
For buyers, wait for pullbacks into
+FVGs on LTFs. Buying at the top of
a rally is risky bisky.
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Thank you so much!
May profits be upon you.
Is gold or silver the trade to make this week? This week's trade could be a decision between gold and silver.
The former might be swayed by the seven fed officials that are planned to speak this week, while the latter could be influenced by the #SilverSqueeze movement that is tangentially related to the meme stock frenzy that reignited last week.
Gold Technical
Gold (XAU/USD) prices rose at the end of the week but did not quite test the all-time high around $2,431.
Gold is trading well above the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the 100 and 200 SMAs maintaining bullish slopes much below it. Renewed buying pressure beyond $2,413 might push prices above the $2,420 mark.
Silver Technical
Silver (XAG/USD) is nearing the multi-year high at $31.40. A significant break at the end of the week saw Friday's sharp rise validate the break above the multi-year trendline. The challenge for the coming week is whether silver can maintain this bullish momentum despite entering overbought territory. The frenzy we saw in meme stocks might be dampening down too, with 2 days of declines following the surge. But it might be premature to count anything out yet.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the range of 70.00, possibly suggesting bullish momentum. The next resistance level is $31.50 from May 2011. In this fundamentally detached market, the next support could lie all the way back at where the metal was trading before the surge.
Weekly Forex Forecast: May 20-25th Part 2This 2 part video covers...
- USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
- S&P500, NASDAQ, GOLD, SILVER, CRUDE OIL
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Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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May profits be upon you.
SILVER Massive Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER keeps growing
And it made a massive
Bullish breakout of the
Key horizontal level
Of 30.00$ and the
Breakout is confirmed
So we will be expecting
A further bullish continuation
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
SILVER - The Perfect Impulsive WaveSilver is showing us a perfect impulsive wave in accordance to Elliott Wave Theory.
The basic principle of an impulse wave is as follows:
Impulse waves = 5 waves
Wave 1 - is made up of 5 subwaves (impulse)
Wave 2 - Is a corrective wave made up of 3 waves (correction)
Wave 3 - is another impulse wave made up of 5 subwaves (impulse)
Wave 4 - is a corrective wave made up of 3 waves (correction)
Wave 5 - Can be either an impulse or a correction - But its made up of 5 waves
We are looking for wave 4 now, which is a correction. Anticipating price to come down to the buy zone. The closer we get to the invalidation level, the better as we don't expect price to break below it.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for wave 4 correction to form. This wave can be traded. Look for reversal signs on lower timeframe
- Once we're in buy zone, watch for bullish price action and reversal patterns
- Once entered, stops go below invalidation level
- Targets: 32, 34.5, taper
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook • Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We look ahead and eye the key event risk, where I would be paying particular attention to earnings from Nvidia, and speeches from Fed members Waller (he speaks 3 times this week), Jefferson and Chair Powell. We get UK, and Canadian CPI, and will keep a beady eye on the narrative out from the RBNZ meeting, which will keep rates hold but guide on the future direction of rates. We also get manufacturing and services PMIs in the US, UK, Australia, and Europe.
UK CPI (due Wed at 16:00 AEST) could get the GBP moving – in either direction – with UK swaps market pricing a near 60% probability of a 25bp cut in the 20 June BoE meeting, and 55bp of cuts by December, and with core CPI expected to fall to 3.6% y/y (from 4.2%) and headline CPI eyed at 2.1% y/y, a lower-than-forecast CPI print could cement a June cut in the market eyes. For those wanting to trade GBP downside, short GBPNZD was the play last week, although, with the RBNZ meeting due on Wednesday, an extension of this trade has risk.
Nvidia should beat but by how much?
Q125 earnings from Nvidia could get the AI-related semis and the NAS100 firing up (or lower), and even set off moves across other markets too. When the options market prices an 8.6% move on the day of earnings, if this implied move proves to be correct, that’s a staggering $195b in market cap gained or lost in a likely 60-minute window. It would also equate to a -/+0.5% move in S&P500 futures in the after-hours session.
We know Nvidia will likely beat the sell-side (investment banks) consensus estimates for revenue, EPS, and gross margins - they always do - but it’s the extent of the beat that matters. Q125 sales are eyed at $24.61b, with Q225 sales guidance expected to come in around $26.72b – one suspects they’ll need to hit us with sales of GETTEX:26B + for Q125 sales and GETTEX:29B for Q225 sales respectively, with CEO Jensen Huang with inspiring guidance to get this pumping like we saw in February.
Fed speakers to watch out for
The message last week from the Fed was one of patience and this message is likely what we’ll hear from Fed speakers this week as well. Chair Powell, Fed board member Waller and Vice-chair Jefferson will be the central focus here, and their views on inflation and policy could move markets, although broadly, markets feel comfortable with the current pricing of 43bp of cuts priced by December, and we see US 2yr Treasuries holding a range of 4.89% to 4.70%.
Last week’s US CPI was encouraging and while this week’s US PMI data could move the dial, notably, if the services print were to surprise and pull below 50 (consensus is at 51.4) it could lift volatility and promote USD sellers. That said, it feels like the market is looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls print on 7 June as the next big piece of the macro jigsaw.
US data has been missing the mark on a consistent basis since mid-April and that has led some to say the US economy is moving towards a ‘soft landing’ environment and away from a ‘no landing’ dynamic. Add in solid earnings beats and growth, a renewed belief in the ‘Fed put’ and a world with a huge appetite to sell volatility (the VIX now sits at a lowly 11.99%) - and we have the S&P500, Dow and NAS100 at all-time highs.
This is a tough market for those in short positions for more than an intraday day trade, and those positioned for downside would be hoping that Nvidia disappoints in a big way. Nvidia are not a company I would typically bet against, so even though the various US indices look tired, the platform is set for further highs and pullbacks should be shallow.
This is true of the HK50/CHINAH indices too, which have had another incredible week of gains. Data in China is lacking this week, so we are fully at the mercy of liquidity and flows. 20k is the near-term target for the HK50 index, but I would consider switching some of HK50 exposure towards the mainland equity markets and the CN50 index, which has broken out and outperformed HK equity on Friday.
We’ll see if some of the goodwill towards China can spill over into the ASX200, which saw supply above 7850 last week – should the ASX200 kick through 7860 early I would be looking for a re-test of Thursday’s highs (7900) and even new all-time highs above 7910.
Copper on fire
The action continues to be in the metals complex – the space is red hot. Copper closed 4.1% higher on Friday, taking the gains for the week to 8.3%, and for the trend-followers and momentum traders, the daily chart is a thing of beauty. Many know the story on reduced copper supply, and those highly focused on the copper scene would be aware of the massive short covering seen in CME futures positioning since mid-February (-42k contracts to stand at +72k) and the widening premium of CME copper to LME copper to $1041 - but the move in copper is momentum 101 and discretionary and systematic players have had to chase.
For FX traders, this move in copper remains a huge tailwind for the CLP (Chilean peso), where USDCLP has fallen 9.4% since mid-April.
Market players chasing silver, platinum and gold
The chase higher from various market players is also true in silver, which had its best week since August 2020, helped by a monster move of 6.5% on Friday, which took price through to the best levels since Feb 2013. Platinum has participated with an 8.8% weekly gain, while gold closed at a new closing high, and eyes the all-time intraday high of $2431.52 – a weekly close above here this week and the FOMO chase could be real.
The question of exactly what is driving the gold move above $2400 is one we hear frequently. The fact we saw US real rates (i.e. US bonds adjusted for expected inflation) rise 3bp higher on Friday – typically a headwind for gold - yet gold rallied 1.6% details that there are other factors than rates driving gold flows – these include a broad base rally in metals, central bank buying, increasing Chinese gold holdings (relative to its international reserves), a hedge against ballooning government deficits; it’s all there and it seems we always have to pick a reasoning behind a move after the fact.
I have little idea how anyone trades gold short-term from a purely fundamental standpoint. My view is to be a slave to price action, react, align with the short-term trend, and cut quickly when the move goes against you.
Anyhow, another big week of market themes and risk to have on the radar.
Good luck to all.
5-Year SPX500 Expectations - Greatest Opportunity Of Your LifeWould you believe me if I told you the US & global markets (some) will rally more than 65% to 125% (or more) over the next 4 to 5+ years?
You would probably call me crazy for even suggesting that will happen in a reasonably short time frame.
But, what if I could show you how structurally (using Elliot Wave concepts and Fibonacci) this incredible rally may already be baked into the markets?
What if I could show you that, barring any major economic destruction event, the US Fed and Global Central banks may have unleashed the inflation beast - which could lead to massive Hyperinflation over the next 5+ years?
Would you be prepared for it? Would you even believe me if I could show you evidence that it may happen much quicker than you can imagine?
And would you believe me if I told you Gold/Silver will rally more than 500% over the next 5+ years while attempting to hedge global debt/inflation risks?
Now is the time to prepare for the greatest opportunity of your life. You must understand the structural mechanics of price related to the current global market dynamics.
Please boost and share this video with your friends. Everyone needs to be aware of what is likely to happen over the next 5+ years so they can prepare for and profit from these exceptional price trends.
XAGUSD. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024We continue the experiment with a wider range of zones. Let's see if we can guess the places to search for deals for the week ahead.
During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. The next morning I adjust the levels based on the new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from CME. Used as areas of interest for trade. When approaching a level, a “reaction” is expected, which can be traded for both a rebound and a breakout. The worst option is if we revolve around the level in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to enter into a continuation of the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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Silver Miners vs Silver SpotThis might be the explosion that will kickstart the silver stocks. This chart is showing a possible W formation that's about to break out... as well as the 25 weekly crossing the 52 weekly, which is usually pretty significant. Lastly, if it can break above the ichimoku cloud, then this ride might take off.
Silver: Potential Double Top Formation Signaling a DowntrendI'm observing a potential double top forming in the silver market at the 29.85 level. This pattern is typically a bearish reversal signal, indicating that silver might be poised for a downward move.
Trade Details:
Pattern: Double top at 29.85
Potential Target: 24.12
Technical Analysis:
Double Top Formation (29.85): The price action (PA) shows that silver has tested the 29.85 resistance level twice, failing to break above it. This creates a double top pattern, a common reversal signal in technical analysis.
Neckline and Confirmation: The neckline of this double top pattern is around the 26.50 level. A decisive break below this neckline would confirm the pattern and likely accelerate the bearish momentum.
Target Projection (24.12): Based on the height of the double top pattern (from the peak at 29.85 to the neckline around 26.50), we project a potential target at 24.12. This level aligns with previous support zones, making it a logical target for the downward move.
Supporting Factors:
Bearish Divergence: Potential bearish divergence on the RSI/MACD indicators could add strength to the bearish case if observed.
Market Sentiment: Current market conditions and sentiment could influence the extent of the move. If the broader market turns risk-off, it could further pressure silver prices.
Fundamental Analysis: Monitor economic indicators, particularly inflation data and Federal Reserve policies, as they can impact precious metals significantly.
Silver breaking out of its consolidationSilver is breaking out its long term consolidation and triggering a bullish reversed Head & Shoulder pattern with a target in the $42.50 area.
Next resistances at the all time high near $50 then the line linking the top of the channel near $53.
A break below $23.50 would invalidate this view.
________________
With gold and copper making all time highs, the governments and central banks printing money like crazy, it's hard to believe that Silver won't catch up and eventually make new all time highs.
Silver miners looking bullishThis monthly chart of the Golbal X Silver Miners looks bullish. After a decade of pullback and consolidations, silver miners seem ready to rise.
We like the recent increase in volume and the bullish structure on the MACD.
A break above $39 would exit the downtrend line linking the tops and would confirm the exit of this long wedge.
Next resistances at $53then $94.
A break below $22.50 would invalidate this view.
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In the context of gold and copper making new all time highs , the devaluation of currencies by countries around the world, starting with the US, and the increasing needs of silver for industrial production of alternative energies solutions, we think that silver and silver miners are due for a catch-up.
Strifor || SILVER-14/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Against the backdrop of the upcoming news week, metals in particular are best viewed from a medium-term perspective. Here, for silver , the most likely scenario seems to be the formation of accumulation and then growth towards a local maximum of 30 exactly ( scenario №1). We also designate Scenario №2, and it is mainly necessary as a plan B in case of increased volatility, which is likely to happen.
The best thing, in our opinion, would be to find a long entry point using a breakout strategy at the level of 28.69664.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Precious metals have been just that, precious Gold SilverThe US #Dollar is trading in the middle of its range since Late 2022.
It is also holding the recent uptrend well.
TVC:VIX is a tad lower today.
#Gold & #Silver still look good, Daily & Weekly.
Loading up on AMEX:SLV when we stated the inverse head & shoulder was a good move.
(took some off recently but still have large position)
AMEX:CEF AMEX:GLD