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Silver Price Retreats from 2012 HighsSilver Price Retreats from 2012 Highs As shown on the XAG/USD chart, the price of silver climbed above $37 per ounce yesterday — a level not seen since 2012. However, this morning, the price has dropped by approximately 2.5% from yesterday’s peak. The bullish driver behind the rally has been fears that the US could become involved in a military conflict between Israel and Iran. Concerns in financial markets intensified after media reports stated that US officials are preparing for a potential strike on Iran. Another factor influencing silver's price was the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a cautious policy stance. Yesterday, Jerome Powell warned that President Trump’s tariffs could fuel inflation (a bullish signal for silver) and complicate the economic outlook. Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart In our previous analysis of the XAG/USD chart, we identified an upward channel. This channel remains relevant, though its configuration has shifted. The price of silver remains in the upper part of the channel (a sign of strong demand). However, two signals suggest a potential correction may develop: → A bearish divergence on the RSI indicator; → A sharp decline from the channel’s upper boundary (marked with a red arrow), breaking through the local line that divides the upper half of the channel into quarters. Nevertheless, given the scale of geopolitical risks, there is a chance that the bears may struggle to significantly shift the trend — especially with markets nearing the weekend closure. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by FXOpen
1
Oil Extends Rally as Israel-Iran Conflict Stokes Supply FearsBrent jumps 5.5 %, bullion hits fresh records, but analysts still see $65 crude by Q4 if key shipping lanes stay open The crude-oil market loves nothing more than a geopolitical headline, and the one that flashed across terminals this past weekend was a whopper: escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran. Within minutes of the first wire stories, Brent crude vaulted 5.5 % to an intraday high of $76.02 a barrel—its largest single-session pop since Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022—before giving back part of the gain to settle just under $76. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traced a similar arc, peaking at $74.11 and closing fractionally lower. At the same time, investors stampeded into traditional havens. COMEX gold pierced $2,450 an ounce for the first time, while silver sprinted above $33—blowing past the decade-old high set during the meme-metal frenzy of 2021. The twin moves in energy and precious metals underscore how fragile risk sentiment has become even as global demand growth, OPEC discipline, and U.S. shale resilience point to a more balanced physical market later this year. Below we dissect the drivers of crude’s latest surge, explore the scenarios that could push prices back toward—or away from—the $65 handle by the fourth quarter, and explain why bullion refuses to loosen its grip on record territory. ________________________________________ 1. What Sparked the Spike? 1. Tit-for-tat escalation. Reports of Israel striking Iran-linked assets in Syria and Iran responding with drone attacks near the Golan Heights raised fears of a direct Israel-Iran confrontation—a worst-case scenario that could spill into the Strait of Hormuz and threaten 20 % of global seaborne oil. 2. Thin pre-holiday liquidity. Monday volume was 30 % below the 20-day average with several Asian markets closed, exaggerating price swings and triggering momentum-chasing algos. 3. Options market gamma squeeze. Dealers short upside calls scrambled to hedge as spot pierced $75, accelerating the melt-up. Open interest in $80 Brent calls expiring in June ballooned to 45,000 contracts—four times the 3-month norm. ________________________________________ 2. How Real Is the Supply Risk? While the headlines are chilling, physical flows remain intact for now: • Strait of Hormuz: No tankers have been impeded, insurance premia have widened only 25 ¢ per barrel—well below the $3 spike seen after the 2019 Abqaiq attack in Saudi Arabia. • Iraqi-Turkish Pipeline: Still shuttered for unrelated legal reasons; volumes have been offline since March 2023 and are therefore “priced in.” • Suez Canal / SUMED: Egyptian authorities report normal operations. In short, the rally is risk premia, not actual barrels lost. That distinction matters because premia tend to deflate quickly once tension plateaus, as the market witnessed in October 2023 after Hamas’s initial assault on Israel. ________________________________________ 3. Fundamentals Point to Softer Prices by Autumn Four forces could push Brent back into the $65–68 corridor by Q4 2025 if the geopolitical situation stabilizes: Force Current Status Q3–Q4 Outlook OPEC+ Spare Capacity ~5.5 mbpd, most in Saudi/UAE Ability to add 1–2 mbpd if prices spike U.S. Shale Growth 13.3 mbpd, record high +0.6 mbpd y/y, breakeven $47–55 Refinery Maintenance Peak spring turnarounds remove 1.5 mbpd demand Units restart by July, easing crude tightness Global Demand +1.2 mbpd y/y (IEA) Slows to +0.8 mbpd on OECD weakness Add seasonal gasoline demand ebbing after August, and the supply-demand balance tilts looser just as futures curves roll into Q1 2026 deliveries—a period typically beset by refinery slowdowns and holiday travel lulls. ________________________________________ 4. Scenario Analysis: Three Paths for Brent 1. Escalation (20 % probability) • Direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory → Tehran targets Hormuz traffic • 3 mbpd disrupted for one month • Brent overshoots to $100+, backwardation widens above $10 • Biden releases 90 mb from the SPR; OPEC signals emergency meeting 2. Containment (60 % probability) • Hostilities remain proxy-based in Syria/Lebanon; shipping unscathed • Risk premium bleeds off; Brent drifts to $70–72 by July • By Q4 oversupply emerges; prices test $65 3. Detente (20 % probability) • U.S.-mediated cease-fire; hostages exchanged • Iran de-escalates to focus on reviving JCPOA talks • Risk premium collapses; Brent revisits mid-$60s by August and low-$60s into winter ________________________________________ 5. Why Gold and Silver Are On Fire The precious-metals rally is less about oil and more about real yields and central-bank buying: • Real 10-year U.S. yield sits at 1.05 %, down from 1.55 % in February, boosting gold’s carry cost competitiveness. • PBoC & EM central banks added a net 23 tonnes in April—the 17th straight month of net purchases. • ETF inflows turned positive for the first time in nine months, adding 14 tonnes last week. Silver benefits from the same macro tailwinds plus industrial demand (solar panel capacity is growing 45 % y/y). A tight COMEX inventory cover ratio—registered stocks equal to just 1.4 months of offtake—amplifies price sensitivity. ________________________________________ 6. Cross-Asset Implications 1. Equities: Energy stocks (XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 by 3 % intraday but could retrace if crude fizzles. Miners (GDX, SILJ) may enjoy more durable momentum given new-high psychology. 2. FX: Petro-currencies CAD and NOK rallied 0.4 % vs. USD; safe-haven CHF gained 0.3 %. JPY failed to catch a bid, reflecting carry-trade dominance. 3. Rates: U.S. 2-year yields slipped 6 bp as Fed cut odds edged up on stagflation fears, but the move lacked conviction. ________________________________________ 7. What Could Invalidate the Bearish Q4 Call? • OPEC+ Discipline Frays: If Saudi Arabia tires of single-handedly absorbing cuts and opens the taps, prices could undershoot $60—but Riyadh’s fiscal breakeven (~$82) makes this unlikely. • U.S. Election Politics: A new White House may re-impose harsher sanctions on Iran or ease drilling restrictions, tilting balances either way. • Extreme Weather: An intense Atlantic hurricane season could knock Gulf of Mexico output offline, squeezing physical supply just as refineries demand more feedstock. ________________________________________ 8. Trading and Hedging Playbook Asset Bias Vehicles Key Levels Brent Crude Fade rallies toward $80; target $68 by Oct ICE futures, Jul $70 puts Resistance $78.80 / Support $71.30 WTI Similar to Brent NYMEX CL, calendar-spread (long Dec 24, short Dec 25) Resistance $75.20 Gold Buy dips if real yields fall below 0.9 % Futures, GLD ETF, 25-delta call spreads Support $2,390 Silver Momentum long until $35; tighten stops Futures, SLV ETF, 2-month $34 calls Resistance $36.20 Energy Equities Pair trade: long refiners vs. short E&Ps ETFs: CRAK vs. XOP Watch crack spreads Risk managers should recall that correlation spikes under stress: a portfolio long gold and short crude looks diversified—until a Middle-East cease-fire nukes both legs. ________________________________________ 9. Macro Backdrop: Demand Still Fragile Even before the flare-up, oil demand forecasts were slipping: • OECD: Eurozone PMIs languish below 50; German diesel demand –7 % y/y. • China: Q2 refinery runs flatlining; teapot margins < $2/bbl. • India: Bright spot with gasoline demand +9 %, but monsoon season will clip growth. On the supply side, non-OPEC production is rising 1.8 mbpd this year, led by Brazil’s pre-salt, Guyana’s Stabroek block, and U.S. Permian efficiency gains. Unless Middle-East barrels exit the market, the call on OPEC crude will shrink from 28 mbpd in Q2 to 26.7 mbpd in Q4, forcing the cartel to decide between market share and price. ________________________________________ 10. Historical Perspective: Geopolitical Risk Premiums Fade Fast Event Initial Brent Jump Days to Round-Trip Barrels Lost? 2019 Abqaiq Attack +15 % 38 < 0.2 mbpd for 30 days 2020 U.S.–Iran (Soleimani) +5 % 10 None 2022 Russia-Ukraine +35 % Still elevated > 1 mbpd rerouted Based on precedent, a 5–7 % surge without real supply disruption typically unwinds within six weeks. ________________________________________ 11. Outlook Summary • Base Case: Containment; Brent averages $70–72 through summer, melts to $65–68 Q4. Gold consolidates above $2,350; silver churns $30–34. • Bull Case (Oil): Hormuz threatened; Brent $100+, gas prices soar, Fed forced to juggle inflation vs. growth. • Bear Case (Oil): Cease-fire + soft demand; Brent breaks $60, OPEC+ grapples with fresh round of cuts. • ________________________________________ 12. Conclusion The Israel-Iran flashpoint has injected a fresh geopolitical premium into oil and turbo-charged safe-haven metals, but history suggests emotion-driven rallies fade quickly when physical barrels keep flowing. Unless missiles land near Hormuz or an errant drone strikes a Saudi export terminal, the structural forces of rising non-OPEC supply and cooling demand should reassert themselves, dragging Brent back toward the mid-$60s by year-end. For traders, that means respecting the tape today but planning for mean reversion tomorrow—selling gamma-rich call structures in crude, rolling stop-losses higher on bullion longs, and watching like hawks for any hint that shipping lanes are no longer merely a headline risk but a tangible bottleneck. Until that line is crossed, the smart money will treat each price spike not as the dawn of $100 crude, but as an opportunity to hedge, fade, and position for a calmer, cheaper barrel in the months ahead.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Silver & Gold Surge: SLV Inflows & GLD TargetsThe precious metals market is currently experiencing a significant surge, with both silver and gold capturing the attention of investors worldwide. This rally is underpinned by a confluence of factors, ranging from robust investment inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to evolving macroeconomic landscapes and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETF has witnessed an unprecedented influx of capital, signaling a strong bullish sentiment for the white metal, while gold, represented by the GLD, is poised for a potential rebound, with analysts eyeing key price levels. Understanding the intricate dynamics driving these movements is crucial for anyone looking to navigate the contemporary financial markets. SLV ETF Inflows Surge: Silver's Accelerated Rally The iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, has recently recorded its most substantial inflows in years, marking a pivotal moment for the silver market. Last week alone, the SLV ETF saw weekly inflows surge by $451 million, a dramatic increase from previous weeks, pushing its year-to-date inflows to over $458 million and its total assets under management to more than $17 billion. This remarkable accumulation of capital into SLV signifies a profound shift in investor sentiment, reflecting a strong conviction that silver prices are set for continued appreciation. When investors pour money into an ETF like SLV, it directly translates into the fund acquiring more physical silver, thereby tightening supply and exerting upward pressure on prices. This massive inflow is not merely speculative; it indicates a broad-based belief among both institutional and retail investors in silver's potential. Several key factors are fueling this accelerated rally in silver prices. One significant driver is the record-breaking surge in gold prices. Historically, silver has often been referred to as "poor man's gold" due to its similar safe-haven properties but lower price point. When gold experiences a substantial rally, silver often follows suit, as investors look for a more affordable alternative within the precious metals complex. Gold's recent ascent to nearly $3,500 per ounce has undoubtedly created a halo effect for silver, drawing in capital from those seeking exposure to precious metals without the higher entry cost of gold. Another compelling reason for silver's outperformance is its perceived undervaluation relative to gold. The gold/silver ratio, which measures how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold, had peaked at around 106 when gold was surging. However, this ratio has since dropped significantly to around 92, indicating that silver has begun to catch up, suggesting it was previously undervalued. This rebalancing of the ratio has encouraged investors to shift their focus towards silver, anticipating further narrowing of the gap. Beyond its role as a monetary metal and safe haven, industrial demand plays a uniquely critical role in silver's price dynamics, distinguishing it from gold. Silver is an indispensable component in numerous high-tech and green energy applications due to its exceptional electrical conductivity, thermal properties, and reflectivity. The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, consumes substantial amounts of silver, with each panel containing approximately 20 grams of the metal. The global push towards decarbonization and the increasing adoption of solar energy are creating an insatiable demand for silver. Additionally, its use in electric vehicles (EVs), electronics manufacturing, 5G technology, and medical devices further bolsters its industrial consumption. Reports indicate that global silver demand reached 1.2 billion ounces in 2024, driven by these industrial applications, with a significant supply deficit projected to continue. This robust and growing industrial demand provides a strong fundamental floor for silver prices, making it less susceptible to purely speculative swings. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties also contribute to silver's appeal as a safe-haven asset. In times of global instability, investors tend to flock to tangible assets like precious metals to preserve wealth. While gold typically garners more attention in such scenarios, silver also benefits from this flight to safety. The ongoing geopolitical developments and concerns about inflation continue to reinforce the attractiveness of both gold and silver as hedges against economic volatility and currency depreciation. From a technical analysis perspective, silver's rally appears robust. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has broken above significant resistance levels, such as $31.75, which had previously acted as a ceiling. The ETF is trading well above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating a strong bullish trend. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved closer to overbought levels, the overall trend remains bullish, and the MACD indicator continues to signal upward momentum. Analysts suggest that if these technical indicators hold, silver could target the $40 mark in the near future. The breadth of participation from both institutional and retail investors, coupled with increasing trading volumes, suggests that this rally has stronger foundations than typical short-term spikes. Furthermore, expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are also providing tailwinds for precious metals. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and gold, making them more attractive to investors. The anticipation of such policy shifts often prompts investors to front-run these decisions, leading to increased demand for precious metals. GLD ETF Weekly Forecast: Gold's Rebound Potential While silver commands attention with its recent surge, gold, represented by the GLD remains the cornerstone of the precious metals market. Gold recently hit record highs, touching nearly $3,500 per ounce, before experiencing a slight retreat due to profit-taking and some strengthening of the US Dollar. However, analysts are now forecasting a potential rebound, with a target of $3430 on the cards for the current week, indicating that the bullish sentiment for gold remains largely intact. GLD is influenced by a diverse array of factors, making its price movements complex yet predictable to those who understand its drivers. One of the primary factors is gold's status as a safe-haven asset. During periods of economic uncertainty, political instability, or market volatility, investors traditionally turn to gold to preserve capital. Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, have consistently driven inflows into gold, as it acts as a hedge against global crises. The strength or weakness of the US Dollar plays a crucial role in gold's price. Gold is primarily priced in US Dollars, meaning that a weaker dollar makes gold comparatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, thereby increasing demand and pushing prices up. Conversely, a stronger dollar can make gold more expensive, potentially dampening demand. While there has been some recent dollar strength, the overall sentiment regarding the dollar's long-term trajectory and its inverse relationship with gold remains a key determinant. Interest rates and monetary policy, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, significantly impact gold prices. As a non-yielding asset, gold becomes less attractive when interest rates are high, as investors can earn better returns from interest-bearing assets. Conversely, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more appealing. The anticipation of future rate cuts by central banks often provides a strong impetus for gold rallies. Inflation and deflationary pressures also influence gold's appeal. Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against inflation. When the purchasing power of fiat currencies erodes due to rising inflation, investors often turn to gold to protect their wealth. Conversely, in deflationary environments, gold's appeal as a store of value can also increase. Recent inflation data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), are closely watched for their potential impact on gold's trajectory. Central bank reserves and their purchasing trends are another significant, albeit often overlooked, factor. Central banks globally hold gold as a reserve asset to diversify their portfolios and safeguard against financial turmoil. Increased gold purchases by central banks signal a broader institutional confidence in gold and can significantly impact its demand and price. Supply and demand dynamics in the physical gold market, including mining production, recycling, and demand from jewelry and industrial sectors, also play a role. While new supply from mining is relatively small compared to the total existing stock, changes in production levels can still influence prices. Investment demand through ETFs and other financial products further contributes to the overall demand picture. From a technical standpoint, gold's recent retreat from its $3,500 peak has led to some profit-taking. However, key support levels are being tested, and analysts are looking for a rebound. The immediate resistance levels are around $3340-$3345, with a more significant hurdle at $3400. A decisive break above these levels, particularly $3400, could pave the way for a retest of the $3430 mark and potentially higher, towards $3500 and even $3600. The current bias for gold remains bullish, with buying opportunities identified at key pivot levels. The market is closely watching economic reports, such as the upcoming CPI data, as well as geopolitical developments, which could act as catalysts for gold's next major move. The Interplay Between Gold and Silver The intertwined fortunes of gold and silver are a recurring theme in the precious metals market. While both are considered safe-haven assets, their individual characteristics lead to nuanced differences in their price drivers. Gold is predominantly viewed as a monetary asset and a store of value, making it highly sensitive to macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, and geopolitical stability. Silver, while sharing these attributes, also benefits significantly from its extensive industrial applications. This dual nature often makes silver more volatile than gold, as it reacts to both investment demand and industrial cycles. The recent outperformance of silver, as evidenced by the massive SLV ETF inflows, suggests a market correction where silver is catching up to gold's earlier gains. The narrowing gold-silver ratio indicates that investors believe silver was undervalued and is now reasserting its true worth. This dynamic creates a powerful feedback loop: as gold rallies, it draws attention to the precious metals sector, prompting investors to look for relative value, which often leads them to silver. As silver then accelerates, it further validates the strength of the broader precious metals market. The current environment, characterized by persistent inflation concerns, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and the global push towards green energy technologies, provides a fertile ground for both gold and silver. Gold offers a traditional hedge against uncertainty, while silver provides exposure to both safe-haven demand and the booming industrial sector. The significant institutional inflows into SLV underscore a growing recognition of silver's unique position at the intersection of finance and industry. In conclusion, the precious metals market is currently in a robust uptrend, driven by a powerful combination of investment demand, safe-haven appeal, and fundamental industrial growth. The unprecedented inflows into the SLV ETF signal a strong bullish outlook for silver, fueled by its undervaluation relative to gold and its critical role in emerging green technologies. Concurrently, gold, despite recent fluctuations, maintains a strong bullish bias, with analysts forecasting a rebound to key price levels, supported by its enduring safe-haven status and macroeconomic tailwinds. For investors, understanding these intertwined dynamics and monitoring key economic and geopolitical developments will be paramount in capitalizing on the ongoing rally in both gold and silver. The message is clear: the precious metals are shining bright, and their current momentum suggests further upside potential.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Psst… Wanna Rob the Silver Market? XAG/USD Trade Inside!"🔥 "SILVER HEIST ALERT! 🚨 XAG/USD Bullish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style)" 🔥 🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟 Attention Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re plotting a heist on XAG/USD "The Silver" Market. Follow the strategy on the chart—LONG ENTRY is key! Aim to escape near the high-risk Red Zone (overbought, consolidation, bear traps). 🏆 Take profits & treat yourself—you’ve earned it! 💪🎉 📈 ENTRY: "The Heist Begins!" Wait for MA breakout (33.700)—then strike! Bullish profits await. Options: Buy Stop above Moving Average OR Buy Limit near pullback zones (15-30min timeframe, swing lows/highs). 📌 Pro Tip: Set an ALERT for breakout confirmation! 🛑 STOP LOSS: "Listen Up, Thieves!" For Buy Stop Orders: DO NOT set SL until after breakout! Place SL at recent/swing low (4H timeframe)—adjust based on your risk, lot size, & order count. Rebels, be warned: Set it wherever, but you’re playing with fire! 🔥⚡ 🏴‍☠️ TARGET: 34.700 Scalpers: Only trade LONG. Use trailing SL to protect gains. Swing Traders: Join the robbery squad & ride the trend! 📰 FUNDAMENTAL BACKUP: Bullish drivers in play! Check: Macro trends, COT reports, sentiment, intermarket analysis. 🔗 Linkks in bio/chart for deep dive. ⚠️ TRADING ALERTS: News = Volatility! Avoid new trades during releases. Lock profits with trailing stops. Stay sharp! 💥 BOOST THE HEIST! Hit 👍 "LIKE" & "BOOST" to fuel our robbery team! More heists coming—stay tuned! 🚀🤩 🎯 Let’s steal the market’s money—Thief Trading Style! 🏆💵
FXOPEN:XAGUSDLong
by Thief_Trader
XAGUSD(SILVER):To $60 the silver is new gold, most undervaluedSilver has shown remarkable bullish behaviour and momentum, in contrast to gold’s recent decline. Despite recent news, silver remains bullish and unaffected by these developments. We anticipate that silver will reach a record high by the end of the year, potentially reaching $60. There are compelling reasons why we believe silver will be more valuable in the coming years, if not months. Firstly, the current price of silver at 36.04 makes it the most cost-effective investment option compared to gold. This presents an attractive opportunity for retail traders, as gold may not be suitable for everyone due to its nature and price. Silver’s price has increased from 28.47 to 36.25, indicating its potential to reach $60 in the near future. We strongly recommend conducting your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions. Please note that this analysis is solely our opinion and does not guarantee the price or future prospects of silver. We appreciate your positive feedback and comments, which encourage us to provide further analysis. Your continuous support over the years means a lot to us. We wish you a pleasant weekend. Best regards, Team Setupsfx
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
2
Silver - Short Term Buy IdeaM15 - Strong bullish move. No opposite signs. Currently it looks like a pullback is happening. Expecting further continuation higher until the two Fibonacci support zones hold. If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by VladimirRibakov
Silver Price Hits Year-to-Date HighSilver Price Hits Year-to-Date High As shown on the XAG/USD chart, silver prices rose on Monday, surpassing the previous high of the year, which was set on 28th March at around $33.50 per ounce. Why Is Silver Rising? A bullish driver came from statements made by the White House. According to media reports: → US President Donald Trump announced on Friday evening plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50%, starting 4th June. This intervention in the global metals market may have also impacted silver prices, given silver’s significant industrial value. → Trump's claims that China violated the trade agreement reached in Geneva last month further cast doubt on the prospects of a phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart Today’s bearish candlestick (marked with a red arrow) indicates that sellers are becoming active, willing to open short positions near the 2025 high. From a technical analysis perspective, there are signs of: → a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern forming; → a false breakout above the March high (trapping bullish traders). However, the bulls may attempt to keep the price in the upper half of the emerging ascending channel (shown in blue), relying on support from the former resistance level at $33.67. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAGUSD
by FXOpen
1
Silver is in the Bearish trend after testing ResistanceHello Traders In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today XAGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
TVC:SILVERShort
by ForexMasters2000
2
XAGUSD Weekly Technical Analysis Breakdown (MMC Style) + Target📈 Chart Summary: The chart shows the price action of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe, capturing a significant shift in market sentiment. This analysis is based on the MMC (Market Maker Cycle) concept and a combination of Smart Money Concepts, Pennant Structure, and Volume Contraction patterns. Over the past weeks, XAGUSD has transitioned from accumulation and markup to distribution and markdown, suggesting that smart money has exited long positions and is now pushing price toward discount zones for future reaccumulation. 🔍 Detailed Breakdown: 🔹 1. Major Resistance Area – The Selling Origin At the top of the chart, we see a major resistance zone near $35–$36, which acted as a structural ceiling for months. Each time price approached this area, sellers stepped in aggressively, rejecting price and creating long wicks. This level represents institutional supply—where big players offload positions, often leaving a liquidity trail behind for later use. 🔹 2. Pennant Formation + Volume Contraction – Classic Distribution From late April to mid-May, Silver formed a pennant structure, a well-known consolidation pattern. What's special here is the volume contraction—a subtle clue that buyers are drying up while sellers prepare for a large move. This is a classic Wyckoff distribution behavior: Buyers are lured in as price moves in a tight range. Breakout traders enter early expecting a bullish continuation. Institutions trap liquidity before dumping price into inefficiency. The mini Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside acted as a false breakout, perfectly engineered to trap liquidity above the pennant. 🔹 3. Structural Breakdown – Momentum Shifts Bearish Once the trap was complete, price reversed with strong momentum, breaking past key supports and violating internal structure. The label "Structural Analysis" marks the beginning of this break in market structure, confirming the change in character. This shift aligns with Smart Money’s "Manipulation → Distribution → Expansion" logic. We also note how price broke below the SR-interchange zone, where support became resistance—a powerful reversal confirmation. 🔹 4. Target + Next Reversal Zone – The Magnet Currently, Silver is headed toward the $29–$28 zone, highlighted in red as the "Target + Next Reversal" area. This level has high confluence: Acts as a previous QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level). Has unmitigated demand. Matches with earlier lows where smart money likely accumulated positions. Here, we can expect either a strong bounce or short-term consolidation before the next directional move. 📌 Confluence Zones: Key Zone Significance $35–$36 Major Resistance (Supply / Exit zone) $33.5 Mini BOS & Liquidity Trap Area $31.8 – $32.5 Structural Break Zone (Old Demand Broken) $29 – $28 Target + Reversal (High Confluence Zone) 🧠 Smart Money Perspective: This entire sequence is not random—it’s engineered. Institutions: Collected orders at the bottom. Pushed price up to resistance. Consolidated in a pennant to build liquidity. Triggered a false breakout to trap late buyers. Dumped aggressively, targeting previous lows for re-entry. This is the Market Maker Cycle in action — and we’re in the Distribution to Markdown phase right now. 🎯 Trading Plan: Short-Term Bias: Bearish until $29–$28 is reached. Swing Traders: Look for signs of reversal in the $28–$29 zone (bullish engulfing, FVG fill, or demand reactivation). Day Traders: Watch for pullbacks to the $32.5–$33 resistance zone to enter continuation shorts. 🧵 Final Thoughts: This is a textbook example of how Smart Money manipulates structure, traps liquidity, and moves price in phases. Patterns like pennants, BOS, and SR flips, when combined with volume and context, give us clear directional bias. If you're still chasing the breakout without understanding the setup behind it, you're trading against those who engineered the move. Understand the structure — or get trapped by it.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
XAGUSD Analysis Using MMC | Breakout & Reversal + Target🧠 What the Chart is Telling Us: Today’s Silver (XAGUSD) price action presents a powerful combination of structural breakout, pattern continuation, and mirror market behavior. Let’s break it down step-by-step so you understand the full picture. 🔸 1. Black Mind Curve Resistance Breakout At the top-left of the chart, we see a curved descending resistance line (referred to as “Black Mind Curve”). This line has acted as a long-term dynamic resistance, consistently rejecting price action across multiple sessions. However, after several failed attempts, the price finally broke above this resistance curve—a highly bullish signal. This breakout marks the beginning of a structural shift, where the bearish control starts to weaken and buyers gain momentum. 🔸 2. Support Level and Accumulation Near mid-May, the price formed a solid horizontal support level. This level was tested multiple times but held firm, suggesting strong accumulation by smart money. According to MMC principles, these accumulation zones are mirrored later as breakout points—which is what we see play out in the chart. 🔸 3. Pennant Pattern Emergence After the initial curve breakout, the market entered a tight consolidation, forming a Pennant Pattern. This is a continuation pattern formed when the market briefly pauses after a big move. This pennant acts as a resting phase before another strong impulse—buyers are catching their breath, preparing for a second attack. 🔸 4. Breakout and Candle After Effect (AE) Once price broke the pennant pattern, we saw an aggressive breakout candle (marked as AE – After Effect). This large candle is a classic liquidity candle that confirms buyer dominance. In MMC terms, this AE candle reflects momentum that mirrors the impulse leading into the pennant, indicating that the second move will often match the first one in structure or magnitude. 🔸 5. Major Resistance + Break of Structure (BOS) Above the breakout zone lies a key resistance area, which has now been broken. This is a Break of Structure (BOS) confirming that the market has flipped from a bearish to bullish structure. This zone, once resistance, may now act as support in future pullbacks—a concept central to Mirror Market Theory, where historical resistance becomes future support (and vice versa). 🔸 6. Reversal Zone Target The chart shows a projected move toward the Reversal Zone between $34.00–$34.50. This zone aligns with: Previous highs from historical market structure. Mirror levels when flipped across the midrange of the price action. Possible liquidity zones where large institutions may look to reverse or take profits. This Reversal Zone is where we can expect potential exhaustion in the bullish run, signaling a pause or a minor correction. 📌 Summary of Analysis: ✅ Bullish Confirmation Points: ✅ Breakout above long-term resistance curve ✅ Bullish Pennant Pattern followed by AE breakout ✅ Break of major horizontal resistance (BOS confirmed) ✅ Target toward reversal zone in line with MMC reflection logic ⚠️ What to Watch: Price action behavior near $34.00–$34.50 Potential bearish engulfing or liquidity sweep in the reversal zone RSI/Volume divergence signals near top zones 🎯 Final Thoughts: The Silver market is showing clear bullish momentum supported by strong technical confluence and MMC-based mapping. The current structure favors continuation to the upside, but traders should manage risk as we approach reversal zones where large players may start offloading positions. 🧠 Mirror Market Concept Reminder: MMC is a strategy based on the mirroring of market behavior—where price levels, patterns, and reactions tend to reflect past structures either directly or inversely. It’s highly effective in spotting key reaction zones, target extensions, and reversals. 💬 What’s Your Take? Do you agree with this bullish projection, or do you see weakness ahead? Let me know in the comments! And don’t forget to like & share this idea if you found value in it. 🚀
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
Silver Consolidates After Huge Drop – Breakout Ahead?At the beginning of April, XAGUSD experienced a dramatic decline, losing over 5,000 pips in just three trading days — a drop of more than 15% of its value. However, after bottoming out on Monday, April 7, the price staged a sharp rebound and, within a week, was back around the 33.00 level. 📉➡️📈 From Panic to Pause – What’s Next? For more than a month now, Silver has been trading in a tight range, between just under 32.00 and slightly above 33.00. This consolidation forms a rectangle pattern, which is typically a continuation structure in technical analysis. With this in mind, I expect further upside from Silver. A clean breakout above the current range could send the price toward the 35.00 zone — and possibly beyond this psychological level. 📊 Trading Plan: As long as the 32.00 support holds, I remain bullish and will look to buy dips, aiming for a positive risk-reward setup, ideally around 1:2. 🧠 Consolidation breeds momentum — don’t sleep on Silver. If the genuine breakout comes, it could be explosive. 🚀 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
3
Can You Snatch Silver’s Profits? XAG/USD Stealth Trade Plan🔥Silver Snatch Strategy: XAG/USD Stealth Trade Plan🔥 👋 Greetings, Profit Pirates & Chart Ninjas! 🕵️‍♂️💸 Welcome to the Silver Snatch Strategy—a sly, calculated approach to raiding the XAG/USD market with finesse. This plan fuses razor-sharp technicals with real-time fundamentals to swipe profits from silver’s wild swings. Let’s move like shadows, strike fast, and vanish with the gains! 🌑📈 📜 The Silver Snatch Blueprint Entry Triggers 🔑: 🔼 Bullish Ambush: Enter on a breakout above the 50-period EMA at ~$34.20, signaling a potential rally. 🔽 Bearish Strike: Dive in on a breakdown below the 200-period EMA at ~$31.50, riding the downward momentum. 💡 Pro Tip: Use price alerts to catch these levels without glued eyes! 🔔 Stop Loss (SL) 🛡️: 🟢 Bullish Trade: Set SL at $31.90 (recent daily low, cushioning against wicks). 🔴 Bearish Trade: Place SL at $33.80 (daily high, guarding against fakeouts). 📉 Stay Flexible: Adjust SL based on your risk tolerance, lot size, and market volatility. This is your safety net! Take Profit (TP) 💰: 🚀 Bullish Raiders: Target $36.50 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) or exit on fading volume. 🕳️ Bearish Thieves: Aim for $28.80 (key support zone) or slip out if momentum stalls. 🚪 Escape Tactic: Watch RSI for overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) signals to dodge reversals. 🌐 Why Trade XAG/USD Now? Silver’s price action is a treasure chest of opportunity, driven by: 💵 USD Strength: The US dollar is flexing due to hawkish Fed signals and robust US economic data (e.g., Q1 2025 GDP growth at 2.8% annualized). A stronger USD typically pressures silver prices. 🕊️ Geopolitical Shifts: Easing US-China trade tensions reduce safe-haven demand for silver, tilting sentiment bearish. 🎲 Speculative Bets: Speculative net-short positions on silver are rising, with traders leaning against XAG/USD. 📊 Technical Edge: RSI (14-day) at 45 signals bearish momentum, while Fibonacci retracement levels highlight resistance at $34.50 and support at $31.00. 📈 Intermarket Dynamics: Rising US Treasury yields (10-year at 4.2%) and equity market optimism divert capital from non-yielding assets like silver. 📉 Silver’s recent dip to $31.60 (May 19, 2025) reflects these pressures, but a potential rebound looms if geopolitical risks flare up. 📊 Real-Time Sentiment Snapshot (May 19, 2025) Retail Traders: 📈 Bullish: 38% 🌟 (Eyeing silver’s safe-haven appeal amid global uncertainty). 📉 Bearish: 48% ⚡ (Swayed by USD rally and trade deal optimism). ⚖️ Neutral: 14% 🧭 (Waiting for clearer signals). Institutional Traders: 🏦 Bullish: 25% 🏦 (Hedging with silver for recession risks). 📉 Bearish: 65% 📉 (Favoring USD assets amid higher yields). ⚖️ Neutral: 10% ⚖️ (Monitoring Fed commentary). 💥 Why This Trade? 🔥 Volatility Goldmine: XAG/USD’s recent 3% daily ranges offer quick profit potential for agile traders. 📚 Data-Backed Setup: RSI, Fibonacci, and EMA alignments provide high-probability entry/exit points. 🌬️ Macro Tailwinds: USD strength and trade optimism create a clear bearish bias, with bullish setups as contingency plans. 🛡️ Risk Control: Tight SL and dynamic TP levels keep your capital safe while chasing 2:1 reward-to-risk ratios. 🗞️ News & Risk Management ⚠️ Silver is sensitive to sudden news spikes. Stay sharp: ⏰ Avoid Entries Pre-News: Skip trades 30 minutes before major releases (e.g., Fed speeches, US CPI data on May 20, 2025). 🔁 Trailing Stops: Lock in gains as price moves your way (e.g., trail SL by 50 pips on bullish trades). 🌪️ Volatility Play: Use smaller lot sizes during high-impact events to navigate choppy waters. Join the Silver Snatch Squad! 👉 Click that Boost button to amplify this Silver Snatch Strategy and make it a TradingView legend! 🚀 Every like and share fuels our crew to drop more high-octane trade plans. Let’s conquer XAG/USD together! 🤜🤛 Keep your charts locked, alerts primed, and trading spirit electric. See you in the profit zone, ninjas!
FX:XAGUSD
by Thief_Trader
Silver is Again in the Bullish directionHello Traders In This Chart XAGUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today XAGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XAGUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XAGUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by ForexMasters2000
Silver - Short Term Sell Trade Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 30th I shared this idea "Silver - Expecting Retraces Before Prior Continuation Lower" I expected retraces and further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold. You can read the full post using the link above. The bearish move delivered, as expected!!! If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAGUSDShort
by VladimirRibakov
Silver Analysis: Bearish Continuation Toward $31 Support ?🧠 Chart Context & Setup Chart Type: Candlestick Timeframe: Likely 4H or Daily Indicators Used: EMA 50 (Red) — 32.814 EMA 200 (Blue) — 32.559 🔍 Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: 33.600 – 33.950 Price faced repeated rejection in this zone, confirming it as a valid supply/resistance area. Support Zone: 30.600 – 31.100 Marked as the next potential demand zone, aligning with previous accumulation and reaction levels. Current Price: ~32.618 Just below the 50 EMA and slightly above the 200 EMA. 🔄 Market Structure The market experienced a strong bearish impulse in early April, followed by a bullish correction that reclaimed the 200 EMA. Multiple internal liquidity (INT.LQ) sweeps were taken before forming a potential lower high (LH) at the resistance zone. The recent bearish move broke below the EMAs and previous structure, indicating a possible shift back to bearish momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario Outlook (Most Probable as of Now) The chart shows a projected lower high formation, likely leading into a continuation of the bearish move. If price fails to break back above 32.800–32.900, we could expect a sell-off toward the support zone (30.600–31.100). This move aligns with: Breakdown below EMAs Failed bullish continuation Rejection from a strong resistance zone 🧭 EMA Analysis EMA 50 > EMA 200, but the price is now sandwiched and showing signs of weakness. If price sustains below both EMAs, momentum is likely to favor bears in the short to medium term. ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch Any strong bullish engulfing candle reclaiming the 33.000 zone could invalidate the bearish thesis. Fundamentals like USD volatility, inflation data, or geopolitical tension could impact Silver drastically. ✅ Conclusion The chart currently suggests a bearish continuation setup, with the potential for price to revisit the $31.00–$30.60 support zone after rejecting resistance. A retest of broken structure around 32.700–32.800 might provide an ideal entry for sellers.
CAPITALCOM:SILVERShort
by MrStellanSight
8