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Silver analysis: How far the bear market rally might go?Silver is in the midst of a bear market rally, up 8% in the last two weeks and 13% since the end-of-August lows. Although silver prices are still 23% below the peak reached in March, recent price movements suggest that silver is attempting to make a trend reversal at these levels. Slowing market pricing for Fed interest rates next year has prompted the rally in silver prices over the past weeks. Investors reduced their forecasts for interest rates in the second half of 2023, and in the last week they priced in a first drop of 25 basis points after Fed funds are expected to reach a high of 4.9% in the first quarter of 2023. An asset like silver that is extremely vulnerable to US interest rates has been granted some breathing room by both the decrease in Treasury yields – the US 10y yield has dropped by 30 basis points in the past week – and the weakening of the US dollar – with the DXY index falling below 110. Silver has been strongly and inversely correlated with the US dollar performance throughout the year. The Federal Reserve meeting next week poses a concern because it could reignite hawkish arguments about the need to curb inflationary increases, which might halt the silver's rally. However, understanding how likely the Fed views a recession in 2023 will be critical, given the market builds many of its expectations for the conclusion of the hiking cycle next year on this matter. A new attempt to break the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 max-min range) can be seen on the daily silver technical chart. Sellers fought back hard at this level in September, pushing prices below the $19.7–20 zone. This level was breached in early October, causing prices to rise to $21.1-21.2 (38.2% Fibonacci). Momentum indicators indicate that bullishness is gaining traction. The 14-day RSI surpassed 50 days once more, and the MACD indicates a bullish crossover close to the zero line. If silver is successful in breaking over $19.8, a new overshoot toward $21.1 or $21.6 (200-day moving average) is possible. At that point, sellers might resume offering fierce pushback. Next Wednesday, a very hawkish Federal Reserve could return to exert downward pressure, leading to a retest of the 18.2 support level. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
CAPITALCOM:SILVER
by Capitalcom
Silver breaks both the 50-day MA and the bearish trend lineWhat a day for silver ! Spot silver went up more than 5% to $19.7 per troy ounce in one of the best sessions this year, hitting the highest levels since August 18. Silver's daily price action broke through both the 50-day moving average and the 2022 bearish trend line connecting the lower highs of April and August. Momentum indicators show the daily RSI spiking above 50 and the MACD providing a bullish crossover last Friday. The latter has been a reliable bullish technical signal. The May 19 MACD bullish crossover led to a 5.7% rally until June. The July 21 MACD bullish crossover sparked a 12.1% rally to mid-August. The following key resistance levels to keep an eye on are: 20.00 (psychological), 20.8 (August highs), and 21.15 (38.2% Fibonacci of 2022 low to high). The 50-dma at 19.23 now represents the immediate support level on the downside. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
TVC:SILVER
by Capitalcom
The Silver BulletSilver - Intraday - We look to Buy at 20.09 (stop at 19.92) Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Daily signals are mildly bullish. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 20.10, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 20.58 and 21.20 Resistance: 20.83 / 21.50 / 26.00 Support: 20.40 / 20.10 / 18.93 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by OANDA
1
Silver analysis: bear market rally and what lies aheadSilver has risen by 11% in the last two weeks. This performance comes after losing about 30% since March 8, indicating a so-called bear-market rally. The main macro driver behind the silver price recovery has been a sharp drop in US bond yields, with the 1 0-year yield falling to 3-month lows at 2.6%, its lowest level since April, as the market now expects the Fed to be more dovish because of the recession. From a technical standpoint, silver is approaching an important area of technical resistance in the $20.5-20.6 range, which includes the 50-day moving average, which has been trading above the metal's prices for more than three months. This area was also the support level in May, which was then breached in late June, resulting in a sharp selloff. The significant rebound from the lower line of the major descending channel indicates a positive short-term price momentum for silver , with the RSI breaking above 50 for the first time since April 20th. An overshoot above $20.7, and then above the psychological level of $21, would provide the bulls with additional confidence. Then, $22-22.3 (May/June resistance & February-April support) provides an important resistance area, where some stronger seller pressure could appear. However, as long as prices do not decisively exceed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $22.6 and the 200-dma at $22.9, the broader silver's picture remains tilted to the bearish side. Looking ahead, silver's strong correlation with safe-haven gold – which is currently close to one – is a positive factor if recession fears continue to fuel speculation on a dovish Fed. In contrast, if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy despite the recession, this might keep silver prices relatively contained (below $22.5) for longer. Analysis by Capital.com's forex and metals analyst Piero Cingari
TVC:SILVER
by Capitalcom
Jamie Gun2Head - Selling SilverTrade Idea: Selling silver Reasoning: Finding resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci level, may the bear trend continue! Entry Level: 18.905 Take Profit Level: 18.150 Stop Loss: 19.110 Risk/Reward: 3.68:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Signal_Centre
Big Moment For SilverHi, this is my new update for Silver. Silver has lost 32% of its value since March 2022 and I expect we have reached the bottom. If we look at the purple rectangles we see that the area between $18 - 19.50 always acted like support and resistance level in different periods. In July 2020 we broke the multi year resistance level (2014-2020) and we never backtested. I think now we have finally backtested it like a support level and at the same time we have reached a 61.8% FIB retracement level. We also have an oversold RSI level and I expect we are going to make a double bottom in the RSI like I drew and that will give us a bullish momentum. In the short term I expect we are going from $18 - 20.50 to backtest the 200 weeks moving average and I will update you guys in the near future.
TVC:SILVERLong
by GOAT1375
2
Current silver XAG resemble BTC 2018 pattern As the points numbered it has some resemblance between BTC and Silver (current price: $25.70) where points 1-5 has already touched an important trendline. To see what will happen to the future price action, we will have to see what is the price reaction at the trendline. If it hovers around the top of the trendline a quite some time, go LONG when the price tighten and the spread is small seems to be a better probability. If price get some kind of dramatic reaction especially to the down side of the trendline, expect a CAPITULATION event happening soon. Long term holders will have to place their stop loss lower than $7 mark. Short term holders can place orders around the $12-$9 mark and expect a bull run for 2-5 years afterwards. Of course the timeframe for BTC is daily and silver is weekly however because BTC moves fast and large enough I consider them to offsetting each other. However if its outside this plan you should know where to place the stop losses with reasonable R:R ratio. May the best plan wins!!
by stantm23
Right Angled Descending Broadening WedgeChart Story here is.. from a Ascending broadening wedge the bears took it down.. and there was a great chance that a Bullish divergence would appear. It did... course went up and so a Descending triangle formation was there to bring the course down again. Because the price then widens a bit on the downside in a sideways move, I consider it a Right Angled Descending Broadening Wedge for now. Besides this pattern, you could probably also make a W pattern out of it but the characteristic of the Broadening wedge is "often", that after hitting the top or bottom 2 or 3 times the price comes back halfway during a rise or fall and then breaks out. these scenario's makes it possible to trade them but in times of macro economic uncertainties at the moment, caution is advised at all times. manage your risks at all times. disclaimer: this is not a financial advise
TVC:SILVER
by Tims.Technische.Analyse.