XAUUSD SHORT As forecasted!!!!XAUUSD is heading south. I had missed a trade late last night on this pair short. As forecasted on Sunday, Silver is going down. We are coming up to some key traffic areas . Lets see what type of reaction we get before entering. I will be looking for some good continuation patterns. Silver will fill the Daily IMB and Weekly IMB short at some stage. Lets see what the next two days of Price action presents itself. Long positions, I will wait for my key Areas to get hit first and I will wait for some confirmation before entering. CONSISTENCY IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!
Silverlong
SILVER ON THE GLOBAL RISE - LONG Dear viewers, followers, silver lovers, reddit traders, all in one (we are together)
Thank you for taking your time to read the information, that i am sharing with you all for free and backed by available research on internet.
Firstly, i will take the credit of being the early retailer that get into SLV last year in april when prices were hovering around $14, you can go back on my tradingview profile to read that idea.
I understand i will be questioned for this, but i simply am just using publicly available information, my countless hours of study and reading history to back up my idea on SILVER LONG.
Here we go!
Silver has been manipulated both ends, that being said Silver has been manipulated when it was "short" and as well when it was "long". But why?
The answer to that made me dig deep in to silver history from 1980's to 2021.
Silver is globally used in industrial sectors, recently in the last 10 years it became an important element in Automotive and Technology. Jewellery market consumption for silver is relevantly low as Gold is highly consumed in jewellery market, apart then that Gold just sit under a tight vault in banks.
From 1994 (the year i was born), silver reserve metric (q) was around 420,000 MT, in which after 2 years it raised to 1,570,000 MT, a staggering rise in mining sector around mexico, peru, bolivia, china and the rest of total 59 countries that produces silver around the world. America has by far being the biggest importer for silver since 1990's ever since gold standards were lift off by President Nixon.
During the early rise of computer and dot com boom, Silver met a giant rise in year 2000 to 1,860,000 MT and right after 2 years it dropped down to 430,000 MT. Since year 2002, Silver never went back up in reserve above 600,000 MT, which means the last time we ever had a lot of Silver available for consumption was year "2000".
Fast forward today in 2021, Silver reserve has shrunk down to between 570,000 MT to the lowest 400,000 MT. (WHAT DOES THAT MEAN) take a guess!
We have been running short on Silver since year 2004, price remained super cheap for Silver as low we saw $12 per oz in 2020 to the higher of $48 per oz in 2011 during Obama tenure.
Why recently Reddit Community have been pulling strings on going Long on Silver? Because historically it doesn't make any sense for the 15-1 ratio btw SLV & GOLD.
Meanwhile Gold remains all time high at $2075 in 2020 and Silver at $30 (2021)
Why is SILVER CHEAP? when other commodities are expensive?
Take a good guess?
From technical point of view, we have seen strong price manipulation since 1st of february 2021 when reddit pumped in over $230 million of contracts and hit new highs, and right after that it was dumped in the same direction by big banks, it could be JP Morgan or Someone out there leasing silver to private institutions for dumping (aka short squeeze). I HATE THIS GREEDY MOVE but theres nothing we can do about it, they are scared that we are all notbaly understanding the undervalued precious metal. This will EXPOSE everything about everything!
CURRENTLY ONLY 500,000 MILLION OF SILVER IN RESERVE IS AVAILABLE! (SUPPLY CHAIN) was over since 2004, but banks purposely kept the value for silver low (idk) for what BS reason.
The law of supply/demand that was stamped by Buffet in early 90's, Buffet was super big on SLV but until he found timid pressure, he had to sell off his positions. BUFFET WAS BIG SINCE 90'S.
"NUMBERS DON'T LIE" BUT THE BANKS CAN LIE
There's so much i can share about Silver, but i guess for that we will have to keep the conversation private.
Feel free to reach out to me, if you believe in Silver and it has been manipulated!
SILVER LONG
Entry: $25-$26
SL: $23.5-$24
TP1: $30
TP2: $32
TP3: TO THE MOON! ($100-$300) per oz
TP4: WEALTH FORVER (IM SURE YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN)
Perfect double top in Gold on a monthly basis and cycles are up.We have hit a perfect double top in gold futures at 1767.9 (1767.2 first low in Nov) on a monthly time frame. Cycles are up and selling volume is decreasing. As long as gold doesn't close below 1767.2 this week - it is one of the most bullish assets on the planet right now! However, remember to be cautious because futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Chart analysisI've made more direct notes on the chart. If the lines on the chart are broken we will see respective turns upwards or downwards. When we meet the cross-sections there will be more volatility. My overall analysis is bullish on longer term but the time estimates unless we see a larger move are in accord to the notes on the chart.
But don't take my word for it, I'm just a TA Noob.
Turn at the bottom of the trend channelFollowing the development of the silver price since the hype some time ago it seems that we now from a technical analysis standpoint are the bottom of a longer term trend channel. From here on out my idea is that we will turn back climbing upwards towards the upper parts of the trend channel.
But hey - I'm just a TA Noob, so don't take me all to serious.
Silver - ready to break out of range?Since reaching $30 and coming back down, XAG has been stuck in a beautiful technical structure. It bounced straight off of the long-term fib at around $26.15 before becoming range bound between the weekly support at around $26.85 and the recent 0.618 level at about $27.75.
Last night after the market opened back up, XAG crashed back down to the long term fib at $26.15 before being bought straight back up. You can see this on the 5m chart (I would post it but TV won't let me with my rep level).
Combined with all the talk of Gold bouncing off its support and starting a new bull run and the general rising trajectory of Silver, I feel like Silver is ready to make a move up into the $28-29 area.
If we do break out past $27.75, $28.27 will probably be where it finds resistance. I would say the best setup if you aren't in already would be to buy on the pullback of this break at $27.75.
Entry: $27.75
TP: $28.76
SL: $27.47 (feel free to go wider as the broken fib level should provide some decent support)
Happy trading!
Blackrock Gold Corp - could this be the breakout ?Blackrok 2 week moving average up from 0.755 to 0.765 with a new high this month at 0.92.
Could this be the breakout from the 6month retracing period ?
Their property in Tonopah West is looking promising as it has seen virtually no exploration they are looking promising and they just increased their exploration budget by 9m.
I've been holding the position since August hoping to see it in green again.
Could this be the point when the tide turns ?
$XAG CFD - Silver can go to 30 and above if it clears 28 hereAs said before and I will say it again, in the past months, Silver's trend and evolution is much clearer than Gold's
As you can see from the chart, after reaching 22 on Thanksgiving week (1765 correspondent in Gold ), Silver has had a clear uptrend.
More, last week's fall in Gold to 1760 has a 26.50 correspondent in Silver , being far from a drop and just a simple and minor correction (22% higher than the recent low).
I expect this divergence to continue, and Silver to be more bullish than Gold also in the future.
My strategy for Silver is buying dips and I expect $28 zone to be broken and accelerate its up-move.
The first resistance is at 30, but this can be easily be broken if we also have a wave of Gold optimism.
Silver can go to 30 and above if it clears 28As said before and I will say it again, in the past months, Silver's trend and evolution clearer than Gold's
And as you can see from the posted chart, after reaching 22 on Thanksgiving week (1765 correspondent in Gold), Silver has had a clear uptrend. More, last week's fall in Gold to 1760 has a 26.50 correspondent in Silver, being far from a drop and just a simple and minor correction (and 22% higher than the recent low).
I expect this divergence to continue, and Silver to be more bullish than Gold also in the future.
My strategy for Silver is buying dips and I expect 28 zone to be broken and XagUsd to accelerate its up-move
The first resistance is at 30, but this can be easily be broken if we also have a wave of Gold optimism.
Axis point, possible turn towards new highs and more volatility.Either we will see higher volatility going towards new highs in silver now or it will continue on a long term uptrend. The Biden stimulus should however have an impact and result in greater inflations and therefore mean that silver will be valued higher towards the dollar. If it doesn't, then silver isn't connected to fiat and geopolitics and therefore broken and not connected to real life events known to the general population but instead something else. Possibly this other could be the dollars position as a fiat-franca, a currency for transfer and therefore a stronger currency than most. Bitcoin, on a sidenote, would then be questioning this position in a sense and at the same time Elon Musk. At the same time one would also be able to say that Bitcoin should in a sense be connected to silver. A silver/bitcoin index. What the value of silver is in relation to bitcoin.
Hope this contributes somehow to your analysis and thinking in these matters.
Also remember, I'm just a silver noob. Don't take my word for it.
XAGUSD vs XAGCAD? More important than you might think.I have been looking at XAGUSD vs XAGCAD, with the theory that the relative performance of the pairs could be a signal. In this scenario, CAD should be thought of as a proxy for commodities, of which Silver is just one. The USD is acting as a measure of the wider economy, and the role Silver plays in it.
Starting with the long term then, some general notes. The CAD (main chart) persistently pegs more closely to the price of silver, as you might expect. It has lower highs, and higher lows. Priced in Silver, CAD is less volatile. USD on the other hand, fluctuates above and below this line, with important potential observations. Notice the considerable difference between the two charts today, a potential for catch up is coming?
We can see highlighted important regions. In green, the 2011 Silver and commodity bull market. Silver in USD significantly outperformed, more detail on that later. In red, we see the 2011 to 2020 bear market. Significant under performance of silver is highlighted. We will see some more detail of that in a bit as well, as there are some important differences today. Finally, the period today is highlighted, which appears to be under performed. More on that later.
Next, let's get more into the thesis. Here is the consolidation phase of the 2008 bear market. We see persistent and significant out performance, almost without exception from where you set the time scale. The difference grows to as much as 30% in several parts, all before the real bull market begins. Most of this can be seen around $25, which was the previous interim top from 2006.
The Silver Bull Market. The growth in XAGUSD continues throughout the process. The top in this cycle is amazingly formed as CAD reaches it's highest point in 40 years vs the USD, in April of 2011. Two months later, the CAD begins it's 30% retreat to the twenty year lows. Measured from December 2008, the performance of XAGUSD peaks in the region of +100% vs XAGCAD (This depends on the start and end date of course).
The Crash; Although not obvious initially, the XAGUSD Line dips below XAGCAD and stays below, which seems to confirm this bear market. This limits this relationship for picking tops, I admit.
The bear market 2011 to 2016. I've highlighted how the market consistently fails to outperform XAGUSD vs XAGCAD. Even during the 'Bull' run of 2016, there is only a brief, 3 month period where it is even possible to show out performance of XAGUSD, from Nov 2015 to Mar 2016. Move the chart and see for yourself. This signal is squashed even before the bull market begins, which could have been a warning sign as XAGUSD failed to break out relative to XAGCAD.
2016 to 2020. A mixed signal? The consolidation of 2016 to 2020 was mixed, there was no clear under performance, but neither did it outperform. Using the full consolidation phase, we cannot see a breakout today.
Today; While no breakout is clear, there are perhaps signs this has changed with this current phase. From the March lows, we can now see Silver in USD is clearly outpacing Silver in CAD, although not yet by as much as in the 2008-2011 cycle.
This could mean either;
The signal is registering a false breakout. Although unlike the 2016 and earlier interim tops, this out performance has lasted almost a full year. Something that has not happened since 2008.
We are still in the early stages of this bull market. Look for this comparison to breakout with a 20 to 30 point difference. This is not hard to see as possible, considering how far XAGUSD needs to catch up just to where XAGCAD is today. And considering that when it does, it tends to overshoot, this could be further confirmation that this party has just started.
Takeaways; Look for this comparison to breakout to the upside 20 to 30 points, which could then continue for months to years. A spike in the USD is not out of the cards as always, and would be negative for this relationship. If XAGUSD remained neutral in that scenario, I would be very bullish however. This relationship currently has about 10% cushion to allow that without dropping XAGUSD below XAGCAD. A spike in the USD driving this ratio down would also need to persist for several months to indicate this is not Silver's time. Top in the relationship should be formed by a significant high in the CAD.
Silver Multi-Timeframe analysisHi Traders
Silver Multi-Timeframe analysis
H1 CHART
A low probability, entry signal to go LONG was given at 27.118 after the market found support at 26.847 . Only the downward break of 26.847 would cancel the bullish scenario.
Support & Resistances
27.039 27.510
26.816 27.652
26.528 27.940
H4 CHART
A medium probability, entry signal to go LONG was given at 26.544 after the market found support at 25.863 . Only the downward break of 25.863 would cancel the bullish scenario.
Support & Resistances
25.757 30.075
24.683 32.545
20.496 36.732
DAILY CHART
The market is approaching the support at 25.888 . We are waiting to see reversal signals in order to reinstate LONG positions. Next important support is the 24.160 level.
Support & Resistances
25.888 27.912
24.160 30.075
21.884 32.545
WEEKLY CHART
Waiting for a retracement lower towards the 21.653 support level, in order to reinstate LONG positions. Next important support is the 18.932 level.
Support & Resistances
21.653 30.075
18.932 34.662
16.512 42.844
Every time frame mentioned looks bullish. However, short term on 30 min i see a lot of bearish pressure.
#CoeurMining - #Tenbagger Potential #Coeur #Silber #XAGUSDWyckoff defined three market laws:
1. the market is determined by supply and demand.
2. prices are the result of the considerations of market participants (bulls as well as bears) and therefore never random.
3. changes in volume and price, allow for predictions of shifts in supply and demand.
Wyckoff's trading method:
1. determine the current market situation and the respective trend
2. look for stocks with relative strength compared to the overall market (bull market) and vice versa.
3. look for stocks that are in the accumulation phase. Are there any chart patterns that indicate this?
4. how does the stock behave in case of resistance/support and how is the price/volume change
5. determine the time of entry and set StopLoss
To Coeur Mining in Q.1 2020:
85,635 ounces of gold, 2.7 million ounces of silver, 3.2 million ounces of zinc and 2.4 million ounces of lead in Q.1 2020 are mainly produced in the USA (58%), Mexico (36%) and Canada (6%). The main revenues are from the Palmarejo, Rochester, Kensington, Wharf, Silvertip and San Bartolomé mines.
The main investments for further development are made in the Palmarejo, Kensington, Sterling, Silvertip, Rochester & Greenfield mines.
Greetings from Hannover, Lower Saxony
Stefan Bode
Silver Price 2021 - V2An update of a previous chart.
Just a bit more of a play with time frames, although the core 16 year cycle is still solidly in play.
Most interesting thing to note was the .38 ratio in play between the big movements.
This is the after affects of Gold standard removal in 71 coming home to roost, incredible.
Interesting!