SILVER going down?Another massive bear channel on a longer term. We are not in a bull market yet. still looking for another leg down. Too much hype and positive sentiment on Silver and Gold.
Silverusd
Is SILVER run over? It appears that we are still in a massive bear channel and this was a bear market rally. Both TVC:GOLD and TVC:SILVER appear to be overbought. Silver is showing a massive weekly shooting star. Might see another leg up (within the channel)but then a decline to find another bottom. Looks like it got all the FOMOs out there. Unless we break out of this bear channel staying bearish.
SILVER: New bull cycle or just a Lower High? See what to expect.A lot of discussion is going around on whether or not Silver has enter a new long term Bull Cycle. We are not against this possibility. But we thought it is useful to analyze also the scenario where XAGUSD is only on its way to a Lower High before diving even more on the long term and continue its multi year Bear Cycle.
On the three charts you see the current price action on the 1W time frame followed by Patter A which shows the price action mostly in the 1980s when Silver was still in the Bear Cycle, making only a Lower High and then Pattern B which shows the late 1990s - early 2000s when Silver broke into its last Bull Cycle.
All charts share some similar sequences: Peak (Lower High) on the Red Arrow Down, followed by a Channel Down (orange shape) and then accumulation after the bottom (eclipse shape). What followed in all charts is a very aggressive (non-stop) bullish 1W candle streak. What separates the patterns though and is the key in determining which phase Silver is currently at is the Golden Cross formation.
On Pattern A it took place after the aggressive rise made a peak (Lower High) and then Silver extended the Bear Cycle.
On Pattern B the Golden Cross took place before the aggressive rise made a peak. Then the price pulled back to the MA50, which held and supported Silver as it started its new Bull Cycle.
We have to say that on these terms, the current price action resembles Pattern A more, as the Golden Cross hasn't taken place yet. However it is not at all impossible to be replicating Pattern B as Silver may continue this parabolic rise so aggressively and make the Golden Cross on much higher levels.
We therefore would suggest investors to take a wait-and-see action and observe how the candle action will affect the MA periods.
* If the price currently pulls back and tests the MA200 then we are most likely still within the Bear Cycle and Silver will extend the downtrend.
* If it rises more and then pulls back to test the MA50 then we will most likely be starting a near Bull Cycle and investors can more safely enter into a long term trade.
We will be analyzing Silver on a more regular short/ medium term basis so stay tuned for more trading set-ups.
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Silver Looks Friggin BullishHello Traders,
There has been a lot of talk about the precious metals recently (Gold / Silver) with many different reasons for the resurgent interest in precious metals ranging from the classic "store of value" to "finite resource" to "growing lack of trust in fiat currencies".
From a Fundamental Analysis point of view I don't really know anything about Silver apart from the basics so if you are reading this and know your stuff about Silver please put it in the comment section.
This chart is from a TA perspective.
Since the beginning of 2002 the price of Silver went on a bull run which peaked in April 2011. That run lasted about 10 years with gains in the region of 1125%. Very nice if you were long on Silver. From an Elliot Wave perspective the price printed a nice set of bullish impulse waves.
Then over the course of the next 4.5 to 5 years the price retraced to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, pretty much to the wick. WickHunter loves it when the market obeys Fibonacci. This entire move looks like a massive Wave 1 and Wave 2 has been completed and price is gearing up for a wave 3.
"If" this is the case and tbh that's exactly what it looks like, then Silver could go to the moon here.
I've used the Fibonacci extension tool on that wave 1/2 and plotted the 1.618, 2.618, 3.618 and 4.236 extensions as targets.
Nobody knows which of the targets will be hit, only time will tell.
WickHunter
Silver Cup and Handle - $90.00 USD Target?Silver has a clear cup and handle formation present (and looking to be resolving) on the monthly chart.
Given the price action in silver recently (check out my earlier analysis which predicted this most recent surge as well as the move up in gold in July) it is worth looking at the longer-term trajectory for silver to determine whether we should be selling, buying or staying on the sidelines.
It is worth noting that pattern analysis is an art, not a science, however it is a fact that the longer the time frame the pattern is observed (e.g. monthly vs. daily patterns) the more validity is tends to have.
The measured move from the base of the cup to the ridge of the cup pattern projects an eventual target of close to $90.00 USD (well north of 300% from present levels)
With this in mind, this pattern will likely resolve over YEARS, not weeks or months, but given the strong tailwind that this could provide for silver and silver associated investments, it is worth considering how you will play (if at all) this market.
Gold/ Silver Ratio - Flashing BUY Silver - 88.48 to 1The current Gold/ Silver ratio is settled at around 88.5 (at press time) this represents a historical outlier and a fantastic opportunity to leverage the movement of silver to great effect.
As you can see the ratio is in a rising wedge, with it set to resolve in the not too distant future, these patterns tend to run quite long before resolving, usually into the climax of the pattern near the point of convergence.
A historic mean of the ratio is around 45 to 1, that would mean a purchase of silver today would equate to purchasing 2x the amount of gold, side note, never measure precious metals (PM) in fiat, always measure in ounces.
This pattern could continue until the point of convergence, this would suggest a ratio closer to 100 to 1, however, it is best to enter a PM position in tranches, as it limits the reliance on market timing.
Nevertheless, this ratio currents represents a tremendous buying opportunity, one that you would be smart to take full advantage of.
Silver Elliott Wave IdeaSilver looks close to completing a multi-year correction in WXYXZ form.
If you apply the guideline that Y should be equal or longer than X2 then 13.646 could be a nice buy; it has already touched the .618 extension of A of Y but may go deeper still >
Silver's possible trend in next 3 yearsRight now we're at the handle of the Cup structure, if silver price can up to $54 in next 12 month ,it will successfully break up the upper trend line of the Cup structure, we will have a big chance to see the silver touching $96 around April 2022.
Good Luck.
Elliott Wave View: Silver Remains SupportedShort Term Elliott Wave structure from the chart below suggests the rally in Silver to $17.5 ended wave (3). The metal then pullback in wave (4) to 16.91 with internal structure as a triangle. Triangle is labelled as ABCDE with subdivision of each leg in 3 waves. Triangle is therefore a 3-3-3-3-3 structure. In this case, wave A ended at 16.5, wave B ended at 17.39, wave C ended at 16.83, wave D ended at 17.19, and wave E ended at 16.91. We can also see each leg in the triangle subdivides in another 3 waves.
The metal has resumed higher in wave (5). Up from 16.91, wave 1 ended at 17.77 and wave 2 pullback ended at 17.49. Wave 1 subdivided as a 5 waves impulse structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 17.14 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 16.96. Up from there, wave ((iii)) ended at 17.74, wave ((iv)) ended at 17.55, and wave ((v)) of 1 ended at 17.77. Silver still needs to break above 17.77 to confirm the next leg higher has started and avoid a double correction. We don’t like selling the metal. As far as pivot at 16.91 stays intact, expect Silver to extend higher.
Analysis of SILVER 27.08.2019The price above 200 MA, indicating a growing trend.
The MACD histogram is above the zero lines.
The oscillator Force Index is above the zero lines.
If the level of resistance is broken, you should follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position 17.800
• Take Profit Level: 18.150 (350 pips)
If the price rebound from resistance level, you should follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position 17.500
• Take Profit Level: 17.400 (100 pips)
USDJPY
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 105.55
GOLD
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1536.00
USDCHF
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 0.9815
GBPUSD
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1.2255
Silver long term bullishOANDA:XAGUSD
Chart is self explanatory. Great setup with massive potential. Leave your thoughts below.
Silver continues to push higherSilver markets rallied again during trading on wednesday reaching above the $17 dollar level during the U.S. market session. There is fear in the markets at the moment with three (3) Asian central banks cutting interest rates overnight (New Zealand, India and Thailand) which suggests this is a coordinated move. The global economy is certainly slowing down, suggesting we could be entering in to another global financial crisis and the safe haven for investors is precious metals and more recently - Bitcoin. We are already in a retracement from the latest high which has bounced from the 38% fib retracement zone. Price should now push up once more and our target is around the 17.60 level
8-6-2019- Silver Surfer, lows coming for Silver/ USD?Shakeout as silver posts new low
Educational and entertainment purposes only- not financial advice
A second Chance to Buy in SilverMidterm forecast:
15.60 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the support #1 at 48 and it prevented price from more losses.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 14.89 on 07/05/2019, so more gains to resistance(s) 17.20, 18.10 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 67.
New trading suggestion:
*There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (15.60). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
* If you missed our first HUNT , you have a second chance to buy above the suggested support line (15.60).
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of the reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and the special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Trade Setup:
We opened 6 BUY trade(s) @ 15.21 based on 'Valley' entry method at 2019.07.10.
Total Profit: 492 pip
Closed trade(s): 144 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 348 pip Profit
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 15.30 touched at 2019.07.11 with 8 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 15.60 touched at 2019.07.16 with 38 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 16.20 touched at 2019.07.18 with 98 pip Profit.
8 + 38 + 98 = 144 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 16.38(current price) - 15.21(open price) = 116 pip
3 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 116 x 3 = 348 pip
All SLs moved to Break-even point.
Take Profits:
TP4= @ 17.20
TP5= @ 18.10
TP6= Free
A second Chance to Buy in SilverMidterm forecast:
15.60 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the support #1 at 48 and it prevented price from more losses.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 14.89 on 07/05/2019, so more gains to resistance(s) 17.20, 18.10 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 67.
New trading suggestion:
*There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (15.60). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
* If you missed our first HUNT , you have a second chance to buy above the suggested support line (15.60).
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to "Buy zone" then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether "Bullish Engulfing" , "Hammer" or "Valley" in other words,
NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of the reversal patterns is formed in the zone.
To learn more about "Entry signal" and the special version of our "Price Action" strategy FOLLOW our lessons:
Trade Setup:
We opened 6 BUY trade(s) @ 15.21 based on 'Valley' entry method at 2019.07.10.
Total Profit: 492 pip
Closed trade(s): 144 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 348 pip Profit
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 15.30 touched at 2019.07.11 with 8 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 15.60 touched at 2019.07.16 with 38 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 16.20 touched at 2019.07.18 with 98 pip Profit.
8 + 38 + 98 = 144 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 16.38(current price) - 15.21(open price) = 116 pip
3 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 116 x 3 = 348 pip
All SLs moved to Break-even point.
Take Profits:
TP4= @ 17.20
TP5= @ 18.10
TP6= Free
H4 LONG TRADE ON SILVER - TREND is your FRIENDQuick summary of how i usually view the markets.
In terms of market movement, i tend to view them as either Ranging or Trending market environments.
- Trending environment means that price has a general direction it is heading based on High Time Frames market structures. BULLISH Market structure refers to higher highs and higher lows, while BEARISH Market structure refers to
lower highs and lower lows.
- Ranging environment means that price usually just oscillates within the range with no clear direction. This is also refer to chopping markets, making it harder to trade since there is no clear trend. Hence, usually i drew up a range and
take trades around the range low / high and trade it to the other side. EG Long range low, targeting range high.
For spotting of trade opportunities, i look to take trades near High Time Frame structure. By refining my entry, stop loss and target based on Low Time Frame structure, i am able to maximize my Risk:Reward ratio of the trade setup by aligning with the Macro trend.
Setup type: H4 Significant Flag
Levels of confluence:
1) Weekly Range Low
2) H4 Demand zone proven itself previously when price dipped into it and rallied to make another higher high (Confirmation of demand)
Silver Elliott Wave View: Impulse Move Favoring More UpsideSilver rally from May 28, 2019 low is unfolding as an impulse Elliott wave structure favoring more upside to take place. The near-term pullback to $14.87 low ended wave ((ii)). Up from there, the metal made a strong rally to the upside and ended wave ((iii)) at $16.58 high. The internals of that rally unfolded in lesser degree 5 waves structure where wave (i) ended at $15.31 high. Wave (ii) pullback ended at $15.03 low, wave (iii) ended at $16.46 high. Then pullback to $16.22 low ended wave (iv) and a rally to $16.58 high ended wave (v).
Down from there, the 3 swings pullback to $16.04 low ended wave ((iv)). While above there, wave ((v)) remain in progress looking to extend higher 1 more time before wave 3 ends & pullback in wave 4 takes place in 3, 7 or 11 swings. The minimum extension area for wave ((v)) of 3 i.e inverse 1.236%-1.618% extension area comes at $16.72-$16.93. From where the metal can potentially see a pullback in 3, 7 or 11 swings before more upside can be seen. We don’t like selling the stock & expect intraday buyers to appear in 3, 7 or 11 swings within wave 4 pullback at a later stage. As far as a pivot from $14.88 low stays intact.
A second Chance to Buy in SilverMidterm forecast:
15.60 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the support #1 at 48 and it prevented price from more losses.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 14.89 on 07/05/2019, so more gains to resistance(s) 16.20, 17.20, 18.10 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 73.
New trading suggestion:
*There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line (15.60). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
* If you missed our first HUNT , you have a second chance to buy above the suggested support line (15.60).
Entry signal:
Signal to enter the market occurs when the price comes to " Buy zone " then forms one of the reversal patterns, whether " Bullish Engulfing ", " Hammer " or " Valley " in other words, NO entry signal when the price comes to the zone BUT after any of reversal patterns is formed in the zone. To learn more about " Entry signal " and the special version of our " Price Action " strategy FOLLOW our lessons :
Trade Setup:
We opened 6 BUY trade(s) @ 15.21 based on 'Valley' entry method at 2019.07.10.
Total Profit: 438 pip
Closed trade(s): 144 pip Profit
Open trade(s): 294 pip Profit
Closed Profit:
TP1 @ 15.30 touched at 2019.07.11 with 8 pip Profit.
TP2 @ 15.60 touched at 2019.07.16 with 38 pip Profit.
TP3 @ 16.20 touched at 2019.07.18 with 98 pip Profit.
8 + 38 + 98 = 144 pip
Open Profit:
Profit for one trade is 16.20(current price) - 15.21(open price) = 98 pip
3 trade(s) still open, therefore total profit for open trade(s) is 98 x 3 = 294 pip
All SLs moved to Break-even point.
Take Profits:
TP4= @ 17.20
TP5= @ 18.10
TP6= Free
