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Sine Wave

BTC : 5Day MACD Fib WavesBitcoin Bitstamp 5Day moving average convergence/divergence and fibonacci-based primary and secondary sine wave structures established from historical MACD positive and negative momentum. The MACD is displayed using the standard fast and slow lengths of 12 and 26, respectively. Signal smoothing length is the standard value of 9. For visual clarity, the signal line is not displayed... but I have left in the colored fill between the MACD line and signal line, so you can still see where the signal line would be. Also included is the colored fill between the MACD and zero line. The wave structure template used in this idea is roughly relative to a standard fibonacci channel, using the following levels : 0, 0.214, 0.236, 0.50, 0.764, 0.786, and 1.00. The primary fib wave template is displayed using solid lines. The positions of the upper and lower bounds of the wave structure are established using the March/April 2021 high, and the June/July 2022 low. The horizontal positioning of the wave structure is established using the March/April MACD high for the lowest wave value. The highest value of the 1.00 wave (amplitude), as well as its' wavelength, is established using the 0.50 midline level interactions...but more on that soon. Note, while the build and placement of the fib wave structures mimic a standard fib channel, it is not exact. Looking closely, you'll notice that the midline isn't exactly in the middle of the 0 and 1.00 wavelines. The structure compresses towards the bottom, thus it is not vertically symmetrical. Either way, these fib wave levels surely line up with the MACD rather impressively. Also of note, by applying a horizontal fibonacci channel using the lowest values of the 0 and 1.00 wave levels, and adding 0.35, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.65 to the existing levels, one can see interesting interactions between the MACD and these horizontal levels. Returning to the primary wave structure... we can see some very interesting interactions between the MACD and the waves. Here we look at the pink/blue wave levels : And here, we look at the 0.50 green midline : These midline interactions were used in creating the amplitude and wavelength of the entire wave structure. By looking at all the interactions, I believe that it is fair to assume that interactions similar to these could occur in the future when the MACD reaches the various levels of this fibonacci wave structure. Ok. So what if, in the future, the MACD reaches beyond the upper and lower bounds of the fibonacci wave structure? My first thought was to just extend the current wave structure by adding more levels above and below the existing structure : This could indeed be useful. But, when I looked at the current structure, and then looked at historical MACD values before 2017, I concluded that this structure doesn't necessarily apply to that data. If I were to predict future MACD action beyond this structure, especially a massive logarithmic rise/drop similar to what happened at the end of 2020/beginning of 2021, I would need to think about this completely different, and find a another method... one outside of simply adding more levels above and below the existing structure. What did I find? Let's return to the midline interactions that we looked at earlier. We see the MACD hits the green midline and reverses 3 times before breaking through the it, and then the MACD rises to the white 1.00 fib wave level. I realize the following might be reaching a bit far, but, what if this particular MACD behavior pattern occurs again in the future? If the possibility of this occurring again exists, is there any existing MACD data that I can use to form an entirely new fib wave structure? A new structure that when placed properly, allows this behavior pattern to occur once again? Here is what I found. I can place a brand new wave on the chart, one with a larger wavelength, and a much larger amplitude. I can modify its' wavelength, amplitude, and position, so that it mimics the midline of the existing wave structure, but on a larger scale. Take a look... here it is, displayed with a dashed line : Now I ask, is it possible to estimate the other levels of this new structure using this waveline and any existing MACD data? Here is what I found : Is this stretching a bit too far? Maybe. But, I think that this way of thinking is what is necessary to imagine what the MACD may look like in the future if there is a massive logarithmic swing in either direction. And of course, because this new fib wave structure is built using less data than the previous structure, and involves more estimation, it is likely to be less accurate as well. So, if all of this possibly plays out, what would the MACD look like if it did reach these types of levels? Well, using an unpublished pinescript indicator that I wrote, I can give you an idea of what it would look like... If you take all of the existing MACD data, offset it horizontally to the right by 500, and then multiply the values by 4.20, you get this : Awesome, right?!?! Interestingly, this projection also fits the initial fib wave extensions that I used in one of the previous images above. Take a look : So, in conclusion, this is how I created the main chart of this idea. I tried to include my logic and reasoning behind it. Is this useful? I think so. Naturally it depends on several factors such as whether you agree with the logic and conclusions of this idea, whether you use the MACD to help you trade, the timeframes of your trades, as well as your trading style. If anything, I think this chart is definitely worth looking at every now and then, especially when the MACD gets close to the various levels. Regarding sine waves, I have found some other waves that can be applied to the MACD that could prove useful. I refer to them as sub-waves. These are not placed within a unifying fib structure... they are individual waves, each with different amplitudes and wavelengths. All sub-waves : I think that these sub-waves can be useful at levels in between the fib wave levels of the two main structures, and overall help add to the validity of the notion of using sine waves in conjunction with an MACD while trading. Finally, here is a bonus 5Day MACD fib grid image... Thank you for checking out my idea. I hope it makes you look at sine waves, fibs, and the MACD differently. Please give it a boost if you liked it, and feel free to comment. //Durbtrade
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Durbtrade
The Bitcoin Wave Model: An Even More Accurate ForecastThe bitcoin wave model , which predicts price cycles based on mining reward halvings, has become even more accurate. A new formula with just 3 parameters can now perfectly model the previous 5 price cycles. What's more, it has enough predictive power to potentially forecast the next 2 cycles as well. With its simplified inputs and precise historical fittings, this enhanced bitcoin wave model is now the most accurate halving-based price model available. By tracking halvings and using this formula, investors may be able to reliably forecast when bitcoin could reach its next peak and plan their trading accordingly. As the premier cryptocurrency continues maturing, models like this will become indispensable tools for analyzing bitcoin's booms and busts. This new wave model sets the standard for bitcoin price modeling today and demonstrates crypto's increasing predictability as an asset class for prescient traders and analysts.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by leoum
1
NIFTY: Bulls face "Red" Sea.Simple statements are powerful. Sometimes one needs a shake up to understand them. Butterfly's effect is a case in point. There is a reason to compare with birds and butterflies simply because their sense of timing. For the bulls the birds of overbought not just in Index in many counters were chirping, while the narrative was looking for ahead of times. We simply chose to ignore. We preferred any fall is temporary but little we realise, a move that sans correction can cause lot of pain. In simple words, what cannot be digested has to be vomited. A recurring correction is always does lot of good. Last 9 gaps we were denied, now we are rushing to cover some of them. We covered one, printed the three-line bearish engulfing pattern. This is much more bearish than a simple bearish pattern. For the records the next gap fill is around the 21030 and the one thereafter is much deeper around the 20500. Suffice to say the mid Bollinger band is the one to watch which is creeping and currently around the 20680 area. Elsewhere, the red sea is in the news, on reported interruptions to the international trade by the Houthis. This news has been there for some time. The one to watch is Strait of Hormuz. Crude price action fall on the backdrop of rise in inventories is a case in point. Markets were search for the cause of the collapse that ranged many, all were very much in print and electronic media before the start of the day. Only cases of Covid which again reported just an hour into the markets. Clearly too much ownership brought the cards collapse. The fall is ferocious more than 1:9 one rise for every 9 fall. Many counters 5% plus fall. Everything rotates and financial markets are no exception. We typically rotate based on the recent price action in 90-day cycle. The sine cycle of this both matches thus the bigger friction. Ideally this correction which started should last into Jan 10. Let's see how it unfolds. For now 21300 which supposed to have been support now becomes supply zone. While the next gap around 21000 is targeted. Any deeper fall towards 20930-950 is temporary buy zone for move back to 21030. A close below 21000 warns deeper correction.
NSE:NIFTY
by sreebhashyam
sit by myself, talking to da moon pt2🌙𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑦𝑜𝑢 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑓𝑢𝑟𝑡𝘩𝑒𝑟, 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡 #𝟷: --- 𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑦 𝑝𝑎𝑔𝑒, 𝑚𝑦 𝑛𝑎𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑒𝑙𝑜 - 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑤𝑖𝑡𝘩 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑠. 𝑖 𝑑𝑜𝑛'𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝘩𝑖𝑐𝘩 𝑤𝑎𝑦 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑔𝑜𝑒𝑠, 𝑖 𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑑𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑦 𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑞𝑢𝑒 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑒𝑠. --- 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑢𝑔𝑢𝑠𝑡, 𝑤𝘩𝑒𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑡𝘩𝑜𝑢𝑔𝘩𝑡 𝑏𝑡𝑐 𝘩𝑎𝑑 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑑, 𝑖 𝑚𝑎𝑑𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑜𝑠 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑤𝘩𝑎𝑡 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒. 𝑠𝑎𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑡 𝑖𝑠, 𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑓𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑑. 𝑛𝑜𝑤 𝑤𝑒'𝑟𝑒 𝘩𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟, 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑤𝘩𝑜𝑙𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑠𝘩 𝑎𝑡 𝑡𝘩𝑒 "𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚", 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑖'𝑚 𝑡𝘩𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑎 𝑤𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑔𝑎𝑖𝑛, >𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑡𝘩𝑖𝑠 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑙𝑠 𝑤𝘩𝑜 𝘩𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑒𝑎𝑟. 𝑖 𝑡𝘩𝑖𝑛𝑘 𝑏𝑡𝑐 𝑔𝑜𝑒𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝟸𝟿𝑘 𝑏𝑒𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝘩𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑡𝑜 𝟼𝑘. --- 𝑡𝘩𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑑𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒, 𝑖'𝑚 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑑𝑣𝑖𝑠𝑜𝑟. 𝑑𝑜𝑛'𝑡 𝑎𝑠𝑘 𝑚𝑒 𝑤𝘩𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑦 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑜𝑟 𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑝 𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑖𝑠. --- 𝑚𝑎𝑦 𝑡𝘩𝑒 𝑑𝑑𝑠 𝑏𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟. ♠ --- 𝑒𝑡𝘩𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑢𝑚 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑦:
by notoriousbids
2
BTC Geometric Price and Time projectionThis chart looks at a 200-day dominant cycle of BTC (current DC is actually 185 days peak to peak represented int he Gann Box). Based on this analysis with geometry and gann boxes at the 185-day dominant cycle length, I see a price for BTC at 39K by October. I think this is a very conservative target. That said the geometry of it all cannot be ignored. The 0.25 and 2.5 shows up in multiple places with a perfect 0.33 on the 0.25 Gann Box representing the price axis bringing completion of peak to peak at 185-200 day cycle around 39,000 - 40,000. I could also see a flash dump in the next day or two down to 29,600, but that is the bottom. BTC has moved sideways for the majority of its declining cycle strength which tells me it has strength. Long story short I would not be trading this market and accumulating for the longer-term is probably the best move.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by pasenner23
Uj major bearishness ahead?We could really see a major move to the downside with uj here. Going back 69 days from june first low gives me a daily resistance of 142.979 (blue line) and going back 112 hours from the same june 1st low gives us an intraweek resistance of 142.767 approx so this will be my entry. If this reversal is successful then the chances of a breach of the June 1st low is likely and a larger timeframe move to the downside could be in its beginning stages. Good luck.
Short
by armanitrades-mhc
Uptrend continuation on UJ?My timing method suggests that a low should be made for USD/JPY between the 12th to the 19th so this week basically. Looking back 45 1/2 days for a repeat of a price and time projects a daily support level at 137.918. Looking for another high to high time count repeat on a smaller timeframe I am able to calculate an intraweek support at 137.850 so I will set my buy limits here. If reaction is successful, an eventual break of 140.926 will be likely. My conservative exit is at 140.196. BUY LIMIT @ 137.850 STOPLOSS @ 137.560 TAKE PROFIT @ 140.196 GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY TRADING
Long
by armanitrades-mhc
6
EWT: Triple Wave CorrectionNotice the recent highs, they have a need to "mother bar" past the Bollinger Bands to signal a higher swing zone. Elliott wave suggests waves move in five or three movement waves, I see two correction waves...the third should happen. In the recent median, the MAMA/FAMA remains open during the attempted bear move. The volume accumulated denoting support. It is not a big price movement for a third wave but it could yield 19% quickly on this trade. Strike the hammer to a third wave higher swing?
SP:SPX
by privatepizza111