SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 5 FormingAs per previously modelled, the projection based on public data on cases project that in early May, Singapore should start the next wave... for now, it looks like a mild spike given the momentum trajectory.
26 April is when more measures are lifted, and rules are further eased... to pre-pandemic level " almost all the way to how things were "
So far, model is 100%
Let's see in a couple of weeks time!
Singapore
STI Sneak Peek Noted the current Double Top formation on the STI (Straits Times Index, Singapore)
Oddly, 4 April was the advanced marked date for a top (hence, red time line).
Previous marked dates (thing lines) and forward marked dates (thick dotted lines) are there. It is intriguing to see the uncanny accuracy over the years.
DBS holding, a bank of singapore.Monthly chart: give this thing time, and you will keep your money.
Zoom in to weekly chart: Support of before-after covid19 at 15,30. but not alone: there is also a big support zone in the range of 17,7-19,16.
Last but not least: A resistance seems to be in place at the ATH; 24,4.
Do not forget all the moving averages ;D
Zoom in again, this time to the daily chart: again, a range between 22,3 and 24.4 (ATH we talked about in the weekly chart)
Also, the 200MA is following the price closely, ready to bring support to the price if it fails.
Final consideration: At the moment, there seems to be no reason against the price to simply keep rising.
Trade safe.
Not financial advice.
SINGAPORE COVIS-19 Wave 4 Ebb into FlowA week after calling the levelling off in reported infections, it did just that and few days later, the SG Health Minister's statement says that the omicron peak is over .
From the past few days, the ebb is slowing and the drop in infections appears to be picking up again. Do remember that virus infections are not exactly linear in amounts and in time as well. So, we could very well be at the ebb of the tide, only to see a resurgence from early April, as projected in the chart. the next 5-7 days would be critical in solidifying this projection; although it is clear that there is a deceleration in the reduction of infections.
Heads up!
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 4 TaperingWave 4 (Omicron) appears to be tapering off, we would be able to know better in the latter part of March. For now, it would appear that the projection sees a rather steep tapering of COVID cases into end of March.
Good news! Not positive! lol...
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 4 UpdateAt the start of the year, it was clear that the Omicron wave (Wave 4) started, as heads up by the previous post.
Wave 4 is ON now.
In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022
In the last two months, we can see that the infection rate escalated after the turn into February. Depicted by the white and yellow line gradients marked under the MACD Signal line.
No deceleration is observed yet... so expect at least a week or two before we see some levelling off (hopefully).
Given the current measures, and population attitudes, I honestly do not yet see this abating soon... will check in again in a couple of weeks if there is any developments.
#marapr2022
$SE #SEALIMITED Stuck Between Two AVWAPs$SE is being supported by COVID-19 lows AVWAP (Aug 17, 2020) and rejected by ATH AVWAP (Oct 19, 2021). Until we break either AVWAP, I will be neutral and wait for some movement. I do like the stock long term in my Roth IRA, so I will be slowly adding shares if it goes near or retests the support AVWAP. As mentioned in my $BTC chart, I do believe that the bottom is in for growth stocks and the R/R is appropriate for going long.
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 4 ONChart speaks a thousand words...
Wave 4 is ON now.
In the coming weeks, it starts slow, but will accelerate faster and faster, into March and April 2022
#marapr2022
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update XIIIn a rather surprising, and significant turn of events, when revisiting the daily counts (which are grossly under reported as many are asked to stay home with primarily ART testing; only PCR positives are logged) there appears to be another kink in the trajectory.
Earlier, the model projected a tapering of the numbers. This was also modelled in line with the experience of Malaysia, Indonesia, and even India. Two factors seemed to have not so relevant... the population density in built up areas in Singapore is much higher than any of these countries. Also, the measures imposed are rather different. And these two might be the crux of the kink, dragging along a sub wave, which in my humble opinion is probably a lot steeper, but appears less aggressive on the MACD histogram. Taking these into consideration, the model is projecting a longer run, with a less steeply rising histogrm. This would easily push the tapering off into December, if at all, else into 2022.
Stay safe people... do decide to do what you think is necessary. Take very good care of yourself and especially of your family.
Do take time to check into an earlier post at the end of June 2021... something was clearly indicated, and showed its face about a month later. Meanwhile, at that time, measures were relaxed and people got optimistic, perhaps a tad too early.
Clearly, the model works, and this is yet again telling us something.
We are still behind the curve.
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update VIIIAt the present moment, in real life, there is a feel of relief. Some optimism that this can return to "new normal", with dining in reinstated on June 21.
Thing is, according to the projections based on the trend analysis, a small spike is already on the way and June 21-30 is about the time is gets noticeably serious.
Not so easy to get away when we are still behind the curve...
Something we are missing, not yet seeing, and somewhere is brewing the next wave. Where is it???
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update XI Been a while since, and much has happened...
Now, the numbers are somewhat different as Singapore had decided to take a different stance, so bearing in mind that not every case is being tracked (by PCR) as a significant number is now being tested by default using the Antigen Rapid Test (ART) kits.
Nonetheless, since October 10th, the spread is slowing slightly... and using the MACD histograms with whatever reliable data left, can roughly project a tapering down in mid-November. However, since the borders are reopening, combined with the massive handling and release from mandatory measures for reporting (stay home quarantine, ART testing, etc.)... we probably have a better idea early November (green circle) where this new dynamic will take us.
So, the model here is now starting to have larger variations.
IF you would kindly track back previous posts, you can see the projections are highly predictive, particularly a comment I made at the end of June, about somewhere is a leak and it is about to resurge. And lol, it did with a big bang into September October.
Well... stay safe and well!
STI HOLDS 3024The STI positively bounced of the 3024 pivot on the weekly charts for the first trading week of October 2021.
The day short signal on 190821 is still active targeting 3024. A break above 3129 on the day charts will resume the short term trend to the upside.
LONG TERM UPTREND since 010321
MEDIUM TERM UPTREND since 071120
SHORT TERM PULLBACK since 190821
PIVOT 3129
Long positions above 3129 for 3406 and 3664
Short positions below 3129 for 3024 and 2747
SINGAPORE COVID Wave 3 Projection Update XI Singapore just made the USA travel advisory list... and we have not yet even open borders.
SG just need to first get its house in order, then dreams will work out.
Anyways, I was having a chat about the astronomical numbers (by SG standards) and we looked at the charts. Then we projected where there might be peaking out. Knowing full well that in Indonesia and Malaysia, they saw a peak out after 2 months, with or without effective lockdowns. Collateral damage aside, the peak infected numbers levelled off, and we wonder when and at what levels Singapore would have hers. August is the chart take off, so October should be about right.
Combined in our discussion, we applied Fibonacci extensions and Gann fan.
Pinpointing a peaking out (levelling off in the cummulative charts) about 100,000-104,000 by mid October 2021.
Here goes nothing!
PS. Albert.. this one for our keeps. This is part our OUR SCRIPT. lolx
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update X (Part 2)Breakdown analysis of the past weeks on the Daily chart.
So far, this only failed for the KTV cluster, and as observed, is projecting very accurately.
No major measures, not likely to have a deceleration as it continues its trend.
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update X (Part 1)Based on the Weekly chart...
There was NO end to the wave, a slight reprieve, but it was there, clear and present.
Sine the week of 19 July, it was a crossover, one that is significant and not to ignore. On the week of 30 August, the uptick was telling that the trend is real and resuming.
Now SG would really feel it now as the rate is clearly accelerating over the last two weeks.
Projections in line with the SG MOH press statement.
We dropped the ball. Period.
GBPJPY CONTINUATION OF BULLISH TREND.OANDA:GBPJPY
Higher Time Frame Trend: Bullish
- Bias: Longs
- Wait for pullbacks or break and retest of market structure for entry.
- Entry at 15min TF
- 2 Trade Ideas
1. Trade Idea ( wait for pullbacks)
- As we can see, there is a bullish engulfing candle that broke the consolidation.
- For this first trade idea, we would wait for price to pullback to the breakout of the engulfing candle for a better entry.
2. Trade Idea (Break and Retest)
- Instead of waiting for a pullback. We can set a buy stop above the highs of 151.500 for a breakout scalp trade.
- Or if you wanna be safe and wait for a retest, that would work too.
SINGAPORE INDONESIA MALAYSIA US COVID ProjectionTime for an update...
Singapore is not enjoying it, but it is in a surprise wave. IT should start to taper off, but the tail would be long...
Indonesia was as projected, and appears to be slowing slightly.
Malaysia is the surprise, as instead of tailing off, a new spike over the last three weeks emerged and the trajectory indicates higher levels over the next weeks.
Of interest, the USA... as the CDC makes about turns in their advisory, and summer holidays are going on with people being still very complacent about it, it looks like a spike wave is due over the next two weeks, and projected to accelerate.
On this note, I wonder IF the equity market will finally realize and freak out for a bit here...
It has been 1.5 years, have we learnt nothing?
If at all, the war has changed inherently, with the Delta variant. There will be more to come...
SINGAPORE COVID-19 Wave 3 Projection Update IXLike a bad zombie movie, the unexpected happened. The start of July appeared as if all was going well, and then suddenly, a new cluster was discovered and the depth and width of this cluster spread was far deeper and wider than anticipated. The model did not pick up this incoming, and for the first time it failed to. This has significance as it is an anomalous event, a game changer if you will, and in such circumstances, it tells a lot.
The green arrows depict the speed of the spread, as well as the discovery by detection. Yes, we are getting better at detection, but only after knowing that there is a cluster. The green arrows point steeper upwards in the past two weeks and the weekly chart signals that this would take more weeks than previously, as well as there would be more affected than previously.
The initial spike has not yet decelerated, but should be tapering off in the weeks to come, thereafter, we may or may not see smaller spikes with smaller clusters surfacing.
Stricter measure have just been put in place and it would take months for this one to pan out, taking us to end August.
Nonetheless, Singapore still remains very lucky by any comparison to the rest of the world. When luck runs out, we would not know, but this is a warning yet again that any complacency would be met with a viral comeback response.
HODL would be appropriate for this circumstance... stay well and safe!
SINGAPORE UK INDONESIA COVID-19 UpdateSingapore COVID-19 is on a downtrend, albeit a potential small spike due to some infected hostesses may have affected a number of people. Not the most flattering of ways to get a spike. But it is tapering off for now...
UK on the other hand, eases its measures today, but leaves me wondering IF anyone is even watching the charts, or doing any statistical studies. The wave onset projected is on time, and it is on now... starts now, for the next couple of months! Hello ??
Indonesia has gotten from bad to worse to even worse. Projections are underestimating the acceleration as daily cases from 20,000 a week ago now hits 40,000 yesterday. This would take more than a couple of months to slow down, if at all. IT's too little too late for vaccinations now, but that's the best weapon there is in the shed.
Malaysia is modulating the current wave, and current projections point to a slow down in infection spread.
Abaxx Technologies $ABXX /$ABXXF TANotes state my thoughts on the matter. I could see price being supported by the LR mean if a roll over does occur.
There is SPECULATION that Abaxx may be awarded its clearing house license over the coming week. This may provide the catalyst to push Abaxx out of its DTL. I am holding long shares and looking to see some tight price action in the +3SD channel to set up a push up.
Abaxx is a pre-rev company and trades on the NEO exchange in Canada. It trades OTC on the QX by the ticker $ABXXF. You can expect spreads of up to 0.05. I recommend Limit Buys.
As always do your own due diligence before buying a security, especially a pre-rev one. And follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
DBS also has downside riskDBS, the biggest component of the STI, appears to have great downside risk.
Breaking below support of 29.60, after a lower high, means a lower low is put in place.
The weekly chart already had a Bearish Engulfing last week, and this week (left with 1.25 days) closing down below 29.60 to end the week would be another toppish candlestick pattern called the Three Outside Down pattern. Bad for tops.
MACDs and RPMs look like shite... heads up.
Oh, btw... may be a couple of weeks for this to pan out IF it really breaks down.