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Watching for market reactionMorning everybody, So, recent sell-off on stock market and rally of the US yields have made pressure as on Gold as on BTC but thankfully it was short term. Still, BTC has dropped to the level that we've discussed last time - 67.5-68K. Why is it so special? First is, it stands around the all-time trend line resistance that recently has been broken up. Second is - the K-support level, which makes it rather strong and a great indicator of market's power. From bullish point of view, we do not want BTC to drop back below it, breaking 65K lows down. At the same time, with elections hysteria environment we suggest to not take any position without confirming patterns. So, our trading plan is to wait for market response to this level. Once we get more or less clear patterns, we could act...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
78.6K is the next one to upsideMorning folks, So, our " signal level" of ~68.6-69K has been broken and bullish setup has been set. Those who have used Stop "buy" entry orders should have good results. Now the trading process is relatively simple. All that you need to do is to control 68.6-69K area. Because you do not want to see bearish reversal swing on BTC and drop back under long-term former resistance area again. Other words, 68.6-69K is an invalidation point for current bullish action. So, if you intend to buy, you could consider 70.5K and 68.6K levels
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
69.3-69.5K is a key to the next directionMorning folks, So, last time we said to not hurry up with the new long entry and then BTC has re-tested our 65.5K support area where we got nice long entry earlier. At first glance BTC looks nice bullish performance, but it is clearly slowing. D. Trump crypto programme has done its job and totally priced-in. Its impact is exhausting. If D. Trump will take the office we could get jump in a moment, but it mostly will be a psychological reaction. Now we would say that both directions have approx. similar chances. We have bullish and bearish patterns on different time scales. Thus, we suggest that 69.3-69.50K area will be the key to the next stop. Upside breakout will lead BTC to action above 70K+ while "222" Sell, if it will work, probably will trigger deeper downside retracement. So, make your bets with this issue in mind.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Not hurry up with a new longMorning folks, So, Monday's setup is done perfect, we've got long entry around 66K support area as we've planned. But next step currently is not evident. The point is that the retracement starts across the board - DXY, FX, Gold, Bonds etc... BTC in recent few weeks had a bit special performance. And mostly it was moving higher on D. Trump crypto programme. Currently we wouldn't hurry up with a new long entry. Those who bought around 66K could keep positions with breakeven stops.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
66K support as the 1st chance to buyMorning folks, So, the journey to 68-69K target is over. Daily AB-CD is completed, right at the trendline resistance on weekly/daily time frame. This target agrees with intraday XOP of our reverse H&S. Since BTC has its own driver - D. Trump promises to make America BTC great again - this lets it to move against the wind, together with gold. But drivers are different. Now we're watching for pullback to 66K support area first. This is the first area where potentially market could turn up again. Next upside target is 70.35K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
70.3K is a nearest targetMorning folks, So, BTC nows shows good bullish context. Downside action was limited with our AB=CD. Due to couple of bullish grabbers on weekly chart we consider 70.3K Top as the nearest target. On intraday charts we consider 62-63.5 and 61.15K Fib levels as potentially interesting for entry. It is just unclear in what manner the pullback happens. Big reverse H&S pattern is more in favor of 61.15K area, while gradual minor retracement could point on 62-63K... Overall context bullish and we do not consider any bearish positions by far.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
62K for entry 57.8K for targetMorning folks, So BTC has failed to break the vital 64.5K resistance that we've talked about last time. It means that context remains bearish and chances on downside AB=CD have increased. Especially on the back of outstanding rally in USD and US yields. It makes us to consider no long positions by far, treat former 64.5 top as invalidation point and watch south. Nearest downside target seems to be around 57.8K. For position taking it is possible to consider 62K intraday resistance, if you have plans to sell. For long position taking we need to get either failure of current bearish scenario and rally above 64.5K top or deeper standing support areas. We have nothing yet, so let's wait with any longs by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC is a victim of liquidity problemsMorning folks, So, we've planned just perfect last time, and BTC actually has dropped but much faster than we thought. It was not even able to form the right arm of H&S pattern and collapsed. But don't search the explanation on cryptomarket. The reasons are more pragmatic - short-term liquidity fall in the US. First is BofA collapse yesterday, then SOFR rate has jumped above RRP. Sea ports are under strike, which also bring a mess in mutual relations of all counterparts. So, current BTC drop is a pure run into liquidity. We do not know when it will be over, hopefully soon. But now we do not consider any longs and prefer follow to the market and see what reaction will be around strong support areas. Next one is 58K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63K and 68.75K to watchGreetings everybody, Just on Thu we've decided to be cautious about any bearish positions as market was behaving not typical, BTC has made drastic changes on Friday. A lot of bullish signs now. It means that currently we have bullish context. Our nearest target is 68.75K. Meantime, market has hit local 4H H&S target and now shows the response. Here 63K looks interesting for long position taking - trend line support and 3/8 Fib level. Besides, if later this construction will shift to H&S - we should get upside bounce in a way of right arm, so chances to move stops to breakeven look as good. Another pattern that might be formed - upside 1.618 3-Drive and BTC could start upside action earlier than 63K. If you want to foresee this either, one of the options is to split position in parts and take small part first, say, 30% of normal trading lot. Take the rest if BTC hits 63K support.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Watching for the same 60.5K areaMorning folks, So, the plan that we've prepared last week mostly stands the same. In fact, BTC has decided first to complete upside nearest AB=CD target, and starts retracement second. So, although we were waiting for pullback on previous week, it is starting only now. Here, on 1H chart you could see potential H&S pattern. We do not call you to trade it, because our primary context is bullish (although you can if you want). Here we're mostly interested with its fruits - downside pullback somewhere to ~60K support area. Which we think might be interesting for long entry later in the week. Cheers.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 57-57.5K levelMorning folks, So, upside target of last week around 60.5K is done, H&S worked very nice. Now, I suppose, it makes sense to wait a bit and see what will happen around 57-57.5K support area. Reason is simple. Technically BTC keeps door open for both scenarios. Supposedly the Fed statement should be dovish and supportive to BTC, but only if they either change rate for 50 points (that I have big doubts about) or will tell something very dovish on conference. Right now we do not have any clear signals. So, our choice is to wait when market hits support area, then watch on 15-30 min charts for any bullish reversal patterns. If we get any - it will be possible to use them for long entry. If not, or if the level will be broken - it would be better to forget about long entry for some time.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback to 60.3KMorning folks, Probably I should make it as an update of previous idea... anyway... BTC shows upside bounce from the 1st 52K target. The pullback obviously is taking shape of reverse H&S pattern. Thus, the setup #1 for scalp bulls. You could think about this pattern, and its target around 60.3K For the bears it is nothing so far. You should watch for 2 moments - either H&S failure, or its completion around 60.3K Fib level and consider any ways for short entry there, if we get corresponding trading setup. For now it seems early to bet on downside continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
50.60KMorning folks, So, BTC was so weak that even was not able to form the H&S pattern. Not as bad job data just pushed it below the floor... There are a few bearish signs exist now on higher time frames as well... So, obviously we do not consider by far any long positions. Maybe everything is not as bad yet to consider 44K downside target on 4H chart but... here on 4H chart it is quite possible to consider 50.6K next downside extension. Once it will be completed - keep an eye on major lows here. To keep bullish chances, BTC should not break it down. Otherwise downside action could become faster in nearest 1-2 weeks. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
The same H&S planMorning everybody, actually I'm not sure that we need the "new trading idea" here, because this is just update on existed one. Everything goes with the plan. Now BTC comes to the neckline, and intraday bulls could start watching for small 15-min reversal patterns to make a decision on long entry. Target is the same - 61-62K, the top of right arm of our H&S pattern. Those who trade on daily/weekly basis just do nothing and wait for this area to consider short entry.. So let's mark this idea as "Long", because we're watching for 61K action, but as you understand overall setup is bearish...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
61-62K for short entryMorning folks, BTC was not able to escape mass revision of public opinion, concerning next Fed move. Not occasionally last time we've expressed doubts that BTC could reach 67K target. Here we will not speak about all bearish signs that we see. To keep it short we have big bearish engulfing on weekly chart which makes us think that H&S pattern on 4H chart is very likely. Thus, scalpers could watch for 55K area for potential long entry. While our base scenario stands for the daily chart and it is bearish. We intend to watch 61-62K area for potential short entry. Although pullback to 61K is possible, I mark this idea as "bearish" based on our primary object
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Is it really to 67K now?Morning folks, So, we've got what we wanted - BTC dropped and not only to 61K but slightly lower, to 59.5K. The major question now is whether we indeed will go to 67K or deeper retracement comes? In fact, riddle is relatively simple. BTC now stands at strong intraday Fib support area. To keep bullish context, it has to go up right from here. In this case 3-Drive "Sell" might be formed, but it starts right from 67K target. Yes, the big uncertainty exists, as recent drop was relatively fast. But at the same time, risk is not too high as market stands near the possible lows. IF, still downside drop will happen, it will mean that we get deeper downside retracement. Current setup is not perfect, but it has some attractive sides. To take part with it or not today is up to you. It has more uncertainty that our usual setups.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Indecision situationMorning folks, So, pullback that we've discussed on Thu has happened. But now we have two equal patterns on daily chart but in opposite directions. Our elder bearish grabber and new one on the bullish side. If you conservative enough - it would be better to stay aside and wait for clarity. We suggest that bearish pattern looks a bit better, just because of intraday price shape. All upside swings look slow and choppy. At the same time, it doesn't mean that you can't try to trade bullish pattern. Take a look that here we also have reversal bar, suggesting that BTC could move slightly lower. If you want to buy, you could try to use it to open position as close to the grabber's lows as possible. Just to minimize potential risk. If, still, we will be correct concerning bearish domination, next downside target is 54.35$ Fib support.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Keeping the same scenarioMorning folks, Last time we said - no longs until bearish daily grabber is valid. So, it is still valid. But if you do not want to wait when situation will be resolved, or by any other reason you would like to buy - here is the life hack. ;) On 1H chart we have clear "222" buy shape with 56.70K target and strong K-support area. So you could try this strong area and try to take long position. Once minor bounce will happen - move stops to breakeven. So this strategy could let you to minimize risk or even to get some small profit if you're totally wrong. For taking the short position - it is necessary to wait for the bounce, because BTC right now is near strong support area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten