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Weekly bearish engulfing patternMorning everybody, This time it could be difficult to put everything in minor update. In two words - we intend to stick with weekly bearish engulfing pattern. It has actually three way of utility. First one is for long-term traders who wants to accumulate more coins in portfolio. Those need to wait when pattern hits the target around 38-40K , weekly Fib level and oversold where some part of portfolio could be added. Second, for those, who in general mind free to accept bearish trading now - you could consider taking short position at some resistance as engulfing pattern in most cases consists of two swings. First one is already in place, while second is yet to start. I've tried to draw the shape of the price. This is just approximation - major points of the patterns could be different, but shape hopefully should remain. Finally, scalp traders could consider upside bounce (BC leg of the pattern). Currently we do not have anything special yet on intraday chart, except MACD divergence, but once any patterns will be formed - it is possible to consider minor upward pullback. That's approximately that we intend to follow next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
11
DiNapoli B&B on daily chartMorning everybody, As some pullback is started we have the first fruit, which is DiNapoli B&B "Buy" setup on daily chart. Its minimum target stands around 53.23K area, entry inside of 45-49K range. I suggests that intraday 48-49K area looks most suitable for that. The optimal stop is below the lows, but if it is too much - it is possible to hide it either below 48.4K or 47K area, depending on your financial possibility. B&B also could be the continuation pattern, if it doesn't limit with minimum target. So, if you consider scale-in, it also could serve your purposes. As usual - do not forget move stops to b/e at a proper moment. Get luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bitcoin cross-market analysisMorning folks, It is nothing to say about short-term picture, because, as you could see by yourself, BTC is just creeping higher without any particular patterns or something. The scale of the motion so wide that it makes no sense to look at intraday charts. The major question is when finally market takes the breath. Previously we already have shown you strong correlation of BTC market and 10-year US yields. Our next BTC target, as you know is ~63-64K. Now take a look at weekly US bonds chart. market is coming to strong resistance area of 1.40-1.45 area, which stands since 2012. Since current upside action is the first one after strong collapse - reaction on resistance definitely should happen. Usually it takes 50-60% in common situation, but for us even 30% pullback becomes an a event. By our suggestion 1.45 might be reached at the same moment when BTC hits 63K. If our suggestion will be correct, we should get multiple trading setups on daily and later on weekly chart while this pullback will be underway.
TVC:US10Y
by Sive-Morten
63K area is next to watchMorning everybody, So our intraday 3-Drive has reached only minimum 46K target - the low between 2nd and 3rd drive, while butterfly has failed. It means that BTC should go upward further. We do not have any reasons to go short by far. Speaking about long entry - currently we also do not have any setups, but any pullback on daily chart, at least to 3/8 Fib support might be a good level to consider. Now to major thing... BTC recently shows strong correlation with interest rates. Next strong resistance on interest rates stands around 1.4-1.45% level, while it might agree with next BTC target on monthly chart around 60-63K area. When interest rates hit the resistance - we have to be careful and keep an eye on possible bearish patterns on BTC as well. But right now we do not see something really interesting.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Watch 50K for reversalGreetings everybody, Here is just minor update as BTC is coming to the 50K target. Now it is definitely not a good moment for the new long position, as market is overbought and stands near desirable level. Important news from Tesla and Morgan Stanley are priced-in mostly and the only setup that we could try is downside retracement. In general, from the perspective of existing bullish momentum it looks risky, so it is, but situation becomes more or less attractive because of near stop placing. Take a look on 4H chart we have butterfly target and perfect 3-Drive sell that is finalizing it. It means that around 50.20K area it is possible to consider short entry with stops right above this area. So, big risk of direction is compensated by relatively small potential loss. Additionally, you could control the reversal process on lower time frames - 15 min, for example and watch for clear bearish patterns there, such as H&S. If our suggestion is correct, downside action could be to 42K in a case of butterfly target, or shyer 46K level for 3-Drive only. Potentially it could be big H&S on daily, but this is too extended perspective for current update. Also keep an eye on interest rates, preferably if they stand flat or start dropping as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
If BTC holds above 40K - it should try to reach 50KMorning everybody, So, our suggestion on re-testing of 42 was correct. While we politely have suggested reaching of just OP around 42.20 - BTC hits XOP at 48K. Now we have reasons to suggest that BTC is aiming on 50K target. First, is, recently it was good acceleration to 1.27 butterfly target. As a rule, it leads to 1.618 after some pause. Second, BTC stands in tight relation to interest rates, and today we could get the pattern that suggests jump to new highs on 10 year yield. This, in turn, should help BTC to reach the anniversary level. Technically, BTC could show some retracement, but if market is still bullish it has to stay above strong K-support and previous top of 42k. Downside breakout means that retracement might be deeper, and it could drop to 30K. Actually this is our next trading plan, if 50K will be reached. Thus, if you intend to buy - keep on chain of Fib supports, be sure that price is above 42 K area. Target is 50K - 1.618 Butterfly extension.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Challenge of 42 top again?Greetings everybody, So, as with massive coming of institutional investors to crypto market, they have brought their own "classical" rules of trading and role of different assets. BTC, for example, is treated as "inflation protection" and moves very accurately with 10-year interest rate. Thus, as tomorrow on NFP release we suspect jump in "hourly earnings" inflation - BTC also could challenge the previous top. Besides, from pure technical view - once market doesn't want to go down (that was suggested by the price action in the beginning of the week), it means that it intends to go up...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Dollar smile is ready to start in Spring?Morning folks, Here is a kind of long-term view on Dollar Value. Our last forecast was in 2011 and there were a lot of bullish signs right before the smile - perfect "222" Buy and bullish DiNapoli grabber on quarterly chart. No need to say that smile has started right in time showing outstanding rally within 4 years. Now we're coming to new Smile. According to our fundamental view the global changes in economy are started already but they should become evident in April-May. Particular at this time Dollar Index should complete long-term 87.30 target, form "222" Buy" again and then new Smile era might be started? Currently we do not talk on upside target, but mostly on the moment where dollar could start the rally and when it could put under pressure other currencies, gold and bit later stocks as well - 87.30, April-May...
INDEX:DXY
by Sive-Morten
2
Bearish daily grabberGreetings everybody, Our upside scenario is mostly worked out as BTC has hit predefined 37-38K target but unfortunately missed swing to 28.25K before the rally. Sometimes this happens. But it doesn't mean that 28.25K level should be ignored. As a result of Friday's jump, we've got bearish grabber on daily chart, that particular suggests drop below recent lows and reaching of this target as well. This scenario is short-term, mostly tactical. It tells that until price stands below recent 38K top - it keeps chances to reach 28.25 level. So we definitely know the target and invalidation point. For position taking we could consider two Fib levels inside the grabber's range. The simplest way to act is to split position and enter gradually, to minimize possible loss. Second - avoid any strong upward action, don't be short in this case. We need gradual and slow retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Setup still holdsMorning everybody, In general our former setup is still valid, although it is interesting how GDP report today will impact on it. We still consider 28-28.25K area as interesting for taking long position, stop supposedly should be below 27K Fib support level. 27-29K is an area that vital to medium-term perspective and there is an opinion on the market that institutional investors will protect it, accumulating positions. We will see. As a potential upside target we consider at least 36-37K area, as we also have B&B Buy DiNapoli setup on weekly chart. Of course big black nasty candle should tell you to stay aside - we do not want this type of action when we intend to go long. Only gradual shape is acceptable. Let's see, how it will turn.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
It seems that BTC keeps bullish contextMorning guys, It is difficult to include everything in minor update. In two words - we think that BTC keeps bullish context on daily chart, and expect that it should try to challenge 42K top once again. Currently it is unclear yet, whether it becomes rally to 47 or just wash&rinse of the top to grab stops around it. Anyway, conservative target that we have is ~42.2K and it is based on large upside AB-CD pattern on the chart. If shape of the legs changes - we need to re-calculate the target. This is obvious. We think that recent low is vital point for this short-term setup and price has to stay above it to keep it valid. At the same time, risk now is too large to jump in here. We would like to get the entry at better price. Since currently market shows the clear shape of minor ab-cd action and forms "222" Sell, it seems that it could become the part of downside AB-CD. This pattern, in turn gives us large "222" Buy - just switch on your imagination ;) This is approximately what we would like to see. the final destination of different AB-CD's could change and this requires re-calculation of the targets, reversal points as the shape could change. But general suggestion is like you see on the chart.... It is needless to say that if BTC drops below vital point - scenario is cancelled.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Intraday patternsGreetings everybody, As we've said, "Buy deeps " tactic is a best choice when market has the momentum like BTC. Currently price stands with daily Dinapoli B&B "Buy" trade and its minimum target stands around 37.45K area. But after that we could few scenarios. I've tried to show them on single chart, hopefully it is not too confusing. At first step we could keep an eye on downside action from 5/8 resistance area and watch for reverse H&S pattern. Market has strong bullish momentum, many people missed the rally and they just dreaming to step in. So they hungry watching for any, even minor pullback as opportunity to Buy. This makes us think that after first downside reaction on intraday charts, another swing up might be formed. As a result, first, we're watching for bounce down from 5/8 Fib level and forming of H&S pattern, then, possible 2nd upside swing and appearing of "222" Sell pattern. No H&S pattern and straight downside action could be the sign of major retracement in a row with our monthly "Volatility breakout scenario", when BTC could reach 20-25K levels again, before major extension starts
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
36.5K area for tactic long entryGreetings everybody, BTC stops the rally for awhile under impact of interest rates jump in US. It is hurt less than gold or EUR, but still, rally is taking the pause. In current circumstances we keep the same tactics and still think that the most safe way to deal the market is to buy the deeps around good support areas. As we have no clear patterns by far, on daily chart we still have 36.5K level that is Fib support and it is accompanied with daily oversold. Potentially this combination creates interesting background for short-term long trade. We do not consider short trades now, but if you still would like to do them - try to rely only on clear bearish patterns on intraday charts. While you do not have any - do not take short position as it is very risky to go against the train.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Considering reaction on monthly targetMorning folks, As we've mentioned before, BTC has hit all time major XOP target at 35K. In long-term we expect upside continuation with next nearest target around 47K$ and in perspective of 1-2 years 150K on average. In the range of 35-50K we expect starting of deep pullback when BTC could played back ~50% of its value. This should become great chance for investing for long term. Now, as price stands around the monthly target - we try to consider possible patterns that could be formed here, if reaction still happens. Most obvious candidates right now are either butterfly "Sell" or 3-Drive patterns. 3-Drive might be even more probable as overall upside momentum stands very strong, and market needs more power to fade it. These patterns are not for shorting (although this is not forbidden), but mostly for understanding of further action. If patterns will be formed - we do know that we get better price for buying. If now - we're going to next target gradually.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Avoiding shorts by farMorning everybody, and Happy New Year, Last time we've discussed some fundamental issues that makes us to focus on higher target where the most reasonable by far our 35K and Bloomberg's 50K ones, but at the same time to not surprise if we get something greater in a longer-term. Because those who directly invests in BTC now, I mean Hedge and Pension funds, they forecast higher targets. Now we have only one driving factor on BTC - not the hash rate, not the mining or other crypto specific indicator but - only "how much big whales would like to invest in BTC". 1% of their assets - be prepared to double of the price, 2% - 4 times... etc. So, with this new reality and rapidly changing fundamentals of the market, we do not dare to sell the BTC because no signs of momentum exhausting stands on the market. In short-term trading, i.e. daily/intraday charts we're aimed on long entry, but intend to use bearish signals and patterns as indicators of retracement and target calculation. For instance - take a look at 4H chart. Here we do know that 24700 is strong daily K-support and daily oversold. Thus, if H&S starts to form here we just use it for target estimation and as indicator of retracement. It shows that H&S target stands accurately around daily support. It makes 24700 area interesting to consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Breaking all limitationsMorning everybody, So, our last 1H chart analysis with the diamond has brought small loss to the bears and great result for the bulls probably. But, it is in the past and today we would like to say different things. Right now we only partially could use technical tools to explain BTC price action. It is driven right now mostly by easy money of Institutional investors. They just flood the market with the Trillions that they have. Technical factors doesn't work right now, at least on lower time frames. Our fundamental view that we've released recently sets minimal target for BTC around 50K with most probable target in 2021 around 100 - 150K per coin, but even 400K will not surprise me. Fed will print money actively and all of them gradually stand in pockets of banks and funds. The "institutional" flood just has started. They have invested tens billions, but it will be hundreds of billions (if not trillions) as 3-5% of total assets is absolutely probable level for global portfolio diversification. Technically, in a very short-term our monthly target stands at 30-35K where market is going right now. Based on price action that we see, we come to conclusion that we have volatility breakout pattern here. It has the following features - unstoppable rally that should finished somewhere naturally, we do not predict it, deep retracement then (usually 50-60%) that becomes the best level for BTC accumulation in long term and 3rd stage is final extension. Currently we stand in the first stage when volatility breakout is just forming. The safest way to act is to buy meaningful deeps, pullbacks to fib levels and out around the top, or, at least move stops to breakeven to keep position. Do not sell. For short entry wait for clear bearish reversal pattern on daily/weekly chart. This pattern has to be extended - something like H&S, as we're dealing with big picture. Until it will be formed, better to not struggle with the running train.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Diamonds are the best girls' friendsMorning everybody, Happy Xmas holidays to everybody, this time its three days, which is great (as well as on New Year's day, btw). Well, recent scalp setup to buy deep and out at top has worked nice, but it was rather short-term scenario. On Monday we intend to release Fundamental research on BTC market. As a hint on content - do you know that Grayscale temporary stops accept funds in their BTC Hedge fund? as JP Morgan suggests, it might be the sign of coming retracement. And now take a look at 1H chart that I've prepared. Diamond. If it works, price could re-test former ATH at least, around 20K, which is also 5/8 Fib support on daily chart. It doesn't mean that you have to sell, but this pattern is useful to everybody. Would like to buy? Great, but be aware of this pattern and wait when it works out or fails. If you want to sell - try to take position as close as possible to the trend line with stops above the top. Technically retracement is ripen already as BTC stands overbought at monthly and weekly charts, reaching major monthly 23K target. So, this pattern on 1H chart is worthy of attention, no matter of would you intend to trade it or not.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Safe way is to buy deepsMorning guys, The big monthly step is done on last week, when market hits important monthly 23K target. We understand that BTC is overbought at monthly and weekly chart as well and this fact significantly increases chances for meaningful downside reaction. But, to form the background for this reaction market needs time and prepare some bearish pattern on daily chart that we do not have right now. It means that bearish context on daily chart could appear in the future - right now it is not good idea to sell just because we at monthly strong resistance area. What is better way to act? We suggest that making scalp long trades on daily/intraday charts are safe way to act on coming week. The momentum on the market stands so strong that BTC probably not once, not twice will try to challenge the top. This creates good background to buy deeps on Fib levels. For example, on daily chart in case of pullback to 3/8 support we will get DiNapoli B&B "Buy" trade. Stop could be placed below daily oversold level (blue line), or below 5/8 Fib support. So, we call to not sell by far, waiting for clarity with bearish background (if it appears at all), but focus on momentum trades, buying at Fib levels and out at previous top or other targets stand around. Or, at least moving stops to b/e.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
The only chart that we needMorning folks, So, it seems that our suggestion on breakout was correct and now we need just one picture for discussion. All other near standing targets are completed, including our weekly ~21K target. Now the major picture is a monthly chart. Here we have strong target/resistance cluster, that includes 1.27 butterfly extension all time AB-CD target and monthly Overbought area. Strong acceleration here suggests that we should go higher, to the next targets, but later. At first touch odds suggests pullback. If it happens as usual - 3/8 pullback to broken ATH around 20K seems reasonable. Thus, if you've missed entry before the rally, it would be better to wait for 23K target and then consider long entry on a retracement. Now there are few things that you could do. We stand just 800$ till target, which is minor potential and we are at daily overbought. This combination hardly could be called as lucky. Still, as we have rally on 1H chart, it is possible consider catching of 3/8 pullbacks of the recent thrust for long entry with moving stops to b/e asap. It's a kind of DiNapoli B&B setup, those who 're familiar with it. But, if you're not brave and skilled enough (as me), it would be better to be patient and focus on 1st scenario...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Aiming on target this time?Morning everybody, So, it seems that we were correct, suggesting BTC preparation for upside action, as downside tendency had no common type of action with reversal. Currently we need to keep an eye on two things. First is, and the most important - market has to stay above broken flag pattern from our previous update. Back drop will be the sign of weakness, suggesting downside continuation. Second - we have the target range, starting from weekly 21070 till ~20.30K area of recent AB=CD pattern. This is probable because of 20K top breakout when more traders could step-in and some stops could be triggered. Thus, if you haven't taken long position inside the flag, you could consider some retracement from most recent swing up. For instance, it might be reverse H&S, (although I"m not sure) that you could use for position taking. Ultimate scenario that relates to D. Trump activity and his success also suggests significant rally well in excess of observed targets. It could happen, for example, if he launch Emergency regime in the US within 1-2 weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Market is building an energyMorning folks, So, BTC slightly has changed the shape of consolidation, turning from triangle to flag shape. But it doesn't change the core. While BTC stands above 16K lows - bullish context stands intact and price is building an energy for upside breakout. There are mostly two reasons for delay of breakout now. This is Overbought condition on higher time frames - monthly and weekly. Second - disappointment in stimulus promised to the market. No pack has followed from the Congress, and, as we suggest no stimulus will be from the Fed next week. But at the same time we see growing political risks and think that something is ripen there. Here is might be the first bell - This could become a catalysts of explosive rally as situation will become hot within next 2 weeks. Meantime, we suggest that current consolidation is good area for BTC accumulation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Context is the sameMorning folks, Market has not shown a lot of activity last week and mostly we keep our scenario valid. Price barely has tested previous ATH and it is correct to say that BTC mostly has touched the level rather than created the new ATH. It means that market's mission around ATH is not finished yet. IT has to either grab stops, wash them out and drop or show the real upside breakout. Keeping all this stuff in mind, as well as overall positive sentiment and expectations stimulus from the Fed - we suggest that last upward leg is yet to happen. Price behavior on 4H chart is not typical for bearish market. Reversal usually happens fast, while here BTC is forming triangle near the top. It looks like preparation for upside breakout. If it takes the shape of butterfly it mostly will be enough to complete our weekly XOP around 21K area. Thus, currently we do not see any reasons to go short by far. It would be better to wait either for XOP completion or real bearish signs with downside triangle breakout etc. Bullish positions could be opened with the stops below butterfly lows. This setup will be broken if BTC drops out of the triangle.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten