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Skeptic | EUR/CAD at Crossroads: 1.55849 vs. 1.53291Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic. Today, we’re diving deep into EUR/CAD, analyzing key levels and potential triggers. 🔍 Market Structure & Current Outlook Looking at the 4H time frame , we initially saw an accumulation phase from February 3rd to February 24th. After breaking out from the accumulation range, price rallied strongly, continuing the major uptrend until 1.58552 . Following this peak, EUR/CAD entered a corrective phase, forming a secondary downtrend that retraced to the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Now, the minor downtrend has broken , signaling a potential continuation of the major 4H uptrend. With strong confluence for a bullish move, we’ll be looking for a long setup, but we’ll also prepare for a potential short trigger in case price reverses. Remember, as traders, we analyze the market from both perspectives and execute based on confirmations—skeptical eyes always! 🔮👽 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): 🔹 Trigger: Break & close above 1.55849 🔹 Confirmation: 7 SMA below the breakout candle RSI entering overbought zone 🔹 Invalidation: Rejection & close back below 1.54325 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): 🔹 Trigger: Drop below 1.53291 🔹 Confirmation: RSI entering oversold zone ⚠️ Key Notes & Risk Management 🔹 Fundamentals: This Friday is NFP day, a crucial event that could create volatility in the market. Always consider fundamental catalysts when executing trades. 🔹 Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging. Wait for confirmed breaks before entering positions. Stick to your trading plan and stop-loss strategy. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis! 🚀
by SkepticWise
3
Skeptic | EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Breakout or Reversal?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic. Today, we're diving deep into EUR/USD , analyzing key levels and potential triggers. 🔍Recap & Current Structure: As mentioned in our previous analysis , after the previous uptrend, EUR/USD entered a consolidation phase. Our short trigger at 1.07124 played out well, reaching an R/R of 2—if you followed the idea, you saw the results! Now, we’ve formed a new structure , which is more visible on the 1H timeframe. After breaking the descending trendline and pulling back , we've now created a higher high , indicating a potential move toward the top of the box at 1.09453 . With DXY weakening, the expectation leans towards an uptrend continuation, but we remain flexible—if our short trigger activates, we'll take it as well because we approach the market with a two-sided, skeptical view rather than a fixed bias. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): Trigger: Break & close above 1.08454 Confirmation: 7 SMA below the candle during the breakout + RSI entering overbought ]Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 1.07666 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): Trigger: Rejection at 1.08278 + drop below 1.07666 Confirmation: RSI entering oversold ⚠️ Key Notes: Fundamentals: This Friday is NFP day—a crucial event for the markets. Given the recent uptrend in EUR/USD, a pullback is likely, so stay prepared for both triggers. Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks before entering. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
by SkepticWise
1
Skeptic | EURCHF: Trend Strength or Weakness? Trade SetupsWelcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic. Today, I’m bringing you a multi-time frame analysis of EURCHF , including both long and short triggers, along with a few educational tips. Let's dive in! --- 🕰️ Daily Time Frame Analysis: After a solid accumulation phase and breaking above resistance, we've successfully shifted the trend to uptrend . Given the major trend direction, it's better to focus on long positions . --- ⏳ 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis: Following the uptrend, we've formed a bullish ascending triangle, indicating a potential continuation. You might think that the RSI downtrend signals trend weakness, but here’s the key point: - Lack of follow-through on the downside shows trend strengt h. If it was genuine weakness, we’d have seen a sharp downward move already. This makes the bias towards long positions stronger . --- 🚀 Long Setup: After breaking the resistance at 0.9649 7, we can consider a long position. A breakout of the RSI trendline to the upside would be an extra confirmation. 📉 Short Setup: To go short, we first need a breakdown from the ascending triangle, followed by a break below the key support at 0.95726. --- 🎯 Target Setting: You can use the height of the triangle or your own support/resistance levels to set targets. I’m not here to tell you where to place your stop loss or take profit since that heavily depends on your strategy, stop size, and R/R ratio. --- 💬 Final Thoughts: I always provide the key levels and setups, but it's up to you to adapt them to your own strategy. Thanks for sticking around until the end of this analysis. See you on the next one!💪🔥
by SkepticWise
5
Skeptic | GBP/USD Deep Dive: Major Trend, Trade Setups!Hey guys, welcome back! 👋 I'm Skeptic. Let’s dive into GBP/USD , a pair that’s been in a strong uptrend and has the potential for another solid price jump. We’ll break it down across multiple timeframes , do a deep analysis , and at the end, I’ll share high-probability long & short setups with clear triggers—so stick around! Daily Timeframe Analysis As you can see, GBP/USD has been respecting an uptrend channel , reacting well to both the upper, lower, and midlines —a key characteristic of a strong trend. Each time price makes a jump, it enters a range box (re-accumulation phase) before breaking out to continue the trend. Currently, we’re inside another range between 1.28720 - 1.29883 . A breakout in either direction can give us a trading opportunity, but given the major trend is bullish , I prefer trading in the direction of the trend unless we get a clear reversal signal. 4H Timeframe Analysis The uptrend channel remains intact , and we’re still within the Consolidation phase . We recently saw a fake breakout , which could mean that the next breakout might happen with stronger momentum. Trade Setups ✅ Long Setup: - Entry: After a confirmed breakout of 1.29883 - Confirmation: RSI breaking above 65.33 (which acts as an overbought signal in this case) - Preferred Order: Stop Buy above resistance to catch momentum ❌ Short Setup: - Entry: After a confirmed break of 1.28682 - Risk Management: Since this is against the trend, take quick profits and use a tighter SL to manage risk efficiently. What are your thoughts on GBP/USD? Drop your opinions in the comments! Let’s grow together, not alone. 🚀🔥
by SkepticWise
5
Skeptic | EUR/USD Breakdown: Key Levels & Trade SetupsWelcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic, and today we’re diving into a multi-timeframe breakdown of EUR/USD. We’ll analyze EURX (Euro Index) and wrap it up with some high-probability trade setups. Let’s get started! 🚀 EURX Analysis Looking at the EURX chart, after a secondary uptrend, we’ve formed an upward channel. When price enters a channel after a sharp uptrend, it typically signals a loss of momentum, increasing the chances of a continuation of the major downtrend—which is exactly what’s happening now. Currently, price is testing a key support at 1037.8 . This is a critical level, and if broken, we can expect further downside for EUR pairs. EUR/USD Technical Breakdown In the 4-hour timeframe, after the previous uptrend, EUR/USD has entered a consolidation phase. However, bearish momentum is more visible: ✔ SMA 7 is sloping downward and positioned above candles, reinforcing selling pressure. ✔ Given the EUR/USD and EURX analysis, we can afford to be more aggressive with short positions while remaining cautious with longs. Trade Setups & Key Levels 📉 Short Setup: Trigger: Break below 1.07124 Confirmation: RSI breaking support at 34.40 & increasing bearish momentum Target: Next support at 1.07154 📈 Long Setup: Trigger: Break above 1.09453 Confirmation: Strong bullish momentum & breakout of consolidation range ⚠ Important: These levels mark the highs and lows of the 4H consolidation zone, meaning whichever way price breaks, it’s likely to continue in that direction. Thanks for sticking around until the end—drop your thoughts in the comments & let me know your setups! See you in the next analysis <3
by SkepticWise
3
Skeptic | DXY Showdown: Battle at 104.403Welcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic Today, we're diving deep into the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), analyzing key levels and potential triggers. 🔍 Recap & Current Structure: As highlighted in our previous analysis , the major daily support (0.618 Fib) held strong at 103.303 , with price reacting precisely at this level. Currently, the DXY is testing a critical 4H resistance at 104.403 , which aligns with: A 4H consolidation range breakout zone A potential fakeout trap if price fails to sustain momentum The RSI (65.92) suggests building bullish momentum, but confirmation requires a clean break above 104.403. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup): Trigger: Break & close above 104.403 Confirmation: RSI holding above 65.92 Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 104.000 📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup): Trigger: Rejection at 104.403 + drop below 103.936 Confirmation: RSI reversal below 50 + bearish 4H candle close ⚠️ Key Notes: Fundamentals: Recent economic data favors dollar weakness—trade longs cautiously. Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks. Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
3
How to Actually Do Backtesting?Welcome back guys, I’m Skeptic! Today, I’m gonna break down one of the most important and fundamental skills every trader needs: Backtesting . Backtesting is the very first step on your trading journey and probably the most crucial one. It’s all about putting your theoretical knowledge and trading plan to the test by evaluating them against historical market data. The goal? To see whether your strategy actually works — with what win rate, R/R ratio , and more. But here’s the problem: many traders do it wrong. They end up getting unreliable results, which leads to self-doubt when it comes to forward testing. The real issue is not your strategy but how you conduct your backtest. Let’s dive into the complete process! 💪 🛠️ Tools You Need To start backtesting, you’ll need some software that supports the replay feature, allowing you to move through historical data as if it were live. The best platforms for this are TradingView and MetaTrader . Personally, I use TradingView because it’s super intuitive and has great backtesting capabilities. Also, make sure to choose appropriate timeframes for backtesting that align with your strategy. 🕰️ Choosing Market Conditions: You need to backtest your strategy in all types of market conditions: Uptrend Downtrend Range-bound High Volatility 🚀 Step-by-Step Backtesting 1.Choose the Timeframe: Make sure your backtesting timeframe matches your strategy’s timeframe. For example, if your strategy works on the 4H chart, don’t backtest on the 1H chart. 2.Select Your Strategy: Stick to your written trading plan without improvising. 3.Pick the Asset Pair: Test on at least three different pairs or assets (e.g., EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/NZD) to get diverse results. 4.Define Entry and Exit Rules: Clearly specify your entry, stop loss, and target levels. Never change these rules mid-backtest, even if it seems illogical. In real trading, you won’t have the luxury of endless contemplation. 🎯 Running the Backtest Use the Replay Tool to move through historical data. Never peek at the future price movement. If you accidentally see it, restart from a different point. Open a minimum of 30 positions for each market condition (e.g., uptrend, downtrend, range). Record each trade in a spreadsheet (Excel, Google Sheets, etc.) with the following columns: Date Time Entry strategy Stop loss Target Result (profit/loss as R/R ratio) Exit time 📊 Analyzing Your Results After completing your backtest, it’s time to analyze the data. Key metrics to focus on include: R/R Ratio Win Rate (%) Drawdown (%) Losing Streaks Position Frequency 🚩 Common Mistakes to Avoid Inconsistent Strategy: Changing your rules during backtesting is a no-go. Stick to the plan. Incomplete Testing: Don’t cut corners and always aim for a substantial number of trades. Ignoring Market Conditions: Make sure your strategy is tested in all four market scenarios. Lack of Patience: Just because the first few trades are losses doesn’t mean the strategy is a failure. Sometimes, a losing streak can be followed by a winning trade that covers it all. 💡 Conclusion Backtesting is the beating heart of any trader’s skill set. It builds confidence and lays the foundation for a profitable strategy. If you found this tutorial helpful, give it a boost and share it with your fellow traders. Let’s grow together, not alone! And as Freddie Mercury once said: We are the champions, my friends! :)🏆 Happy trading, and see you in the next analysis! 💪🔥
Education
by SkepticWise
11
Skeptic | Gold Analysis: Risk Management Amid Weakening MomentumWelcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic, and today we’re analyzing XAUUSD. In my previous analysis , our long trigger at 2994.16 was activated, and by now, you should be sitting on an R/R above 5. The major trend on the daily timeframe is s till uptrend , but we’re sensing more trend weakness than ever. ⚠️ This doesn’t mean we skip a long position when our trigger activates—just that we should manage risk more cautiously. On the 1H timeframe , it seems we’ve formed an upward channel , with clean reactions to the mid-line, ceiling, and floor. It’s worth noting that during the formation of this channel: RSI has been declining ADX is also decreasing This indicates reduced trader interest in maintaining the bullish channel and hints at potential trend weakness. Considering all this, we have a slight short bias today, meaning we might assign a bit more weight to the short side. Short Setup: Trigger: Break below 3024.52 (coinciding with RSI entering the oversold zone) Long Setup: Trigger: Break above 3057.64 Thanks for sticking around! Let me know your thoughts, and see you in the next analysis! 💪🔥 Happy Eid to all my Persian friends! <3 :)))
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by SkepticWise
1
Skeptic | XAU/USD Ready to Break Out? Key Long & Short Setups!Welcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic . Let’s kick off the week with an analysis of XAU/USD , which seems to be giving us a long trigger right now! Let’s break down the 1-hour time frame. 🔍 Market Overview: The major trend on the daily is still uptrend , so it’s best to trade in the direction of the trend (long) . Last week, as per our analysis, we hit a new ATH and managed to break the resistance at 2954.74 . 📈 Current Situation: After a brief consolidation in the 4-hour time frame, a new uptrend momentum seems to be kicking off, which could lead to another price surge and a potential new uptrend. 🚀 Long Setup: Our riskier long trigger will be activated after breaking 2994.16 , and it looks like the current candle is about to break it. For a safer position, we’ll wait for a breakout above 3002.71 . 📉 Short Setup: A short position below 2968.43 could work, although the uptrend momentum is quite strong, so there’s a higher chance of hitting the stop loss . 💡 This week, we have plenty of setups, so make sure to catch all the analyses and stay prepared. Until the next analysis—stay sharp and trade smart! 💪🔥
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by SkepticWise
3
Skeptic | Weekly Recap: Big Wins, Misses & Lessons!Hey guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today I’m gonna do a full recap of the past week’s positions and watchlist. We’re gonna see what worked, what didn’t, and what lessons we learned along the way. Let’s get into it! 🚀 Position Review: What We’ll Cover What was the trigger? What was the result (profit/loss)? Why did it work or fail? I’ll be linking all the relevant ideas so you can check out the full analysis for each setup. Also, if I don’t mention a position, it’s because the trigger I gave hasn’t activated yet. Let’s dive in! 💥 Position #1: XAUUSD (12 March) 📈 4-Hour Time Frame Recently, we saw a breakout of the range box, but the price quickly pulled back inside, indicating that sellers failed to maintain bearish momentum. This suggests that the long-term uptrend is still holding strong. 🔮 Next Move? If we see a break above the 4-hour resistance at 2927.25, it could be a solid signal for continuing the uptrend. The final bullish trigger will be after a breakout above 2954.74, confirming strong upside momentum. 📉 Short Setup: The main short trigger is a break below 2878.84. Once that level breaks, there’s no significant support until 2841.74, so the move could be sharp and quick. Given the importance of this support, expect some volatility and adjust your stops accordingly. ✅ Outcome: The long trigger at 2919 was activated, and we managed to hit an R/R of 5. Reasons for Success: Trading in the direction of the major trend: Always increases R/R and win rate. Strong breakout candle: A solid 4-hour candle showed both buyer strength and seller presence, signaling a great breakout opportunity. Good momentum: Previous corrections were minimal (less than 35% on the Fib retracement), and bullish candles were strong. 💥 Position #2: XAGUSD (12 March) We recently witnessed a range box breakout, but the price swiftly pulled back inside, showing that sellers failed to keep the momentum. The daily major uptrend still looks strong. ✅ Outcome: This position also delivered an R/R of 3. Reasons for Success: Long trade aligned with the trend: Always a safer bet. Sharp reaction to resistance: Breaking strong resistance often results in a sharp move. No major resistance ahead: This allowed the move to extend further, giving us a higher R/R. 💥 Position #3: SPX (14 March) 🔍 Market Overview: The weekly trend is still up, but the daily time frame has entered a corrective downtrend due to trade tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries. This led to the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame, we entered a range box and recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, showing buyer strength and seller weakness. This gives a slight long bias. ✅ Outcome: Our trigger at 5564.67 activated with a solid indecision candle on the 1-hour time frame. If you took the trade with a safe stop loss, you should be sitting on an R/R of 2 by now. Reasons for Success: Fake breakout recovery: Sellers couldn’t hold the price down, and buyers pushed it back into the range, absorbing liquidity. Lower-than-expected inflation: Improved sentiment and led to a bullish push. Indecision candle confirmation: Signaled buyer presence and seller exhaustion. 💡 Key Takeaway: This week, we managed to secure an R/R of 10, which is fantastic. I’m not gonna brag about how much profit we made, because that number can vary based on each trader’s risk management and position size. A professional trader measures success through win rate, losing streaks, and R/R, not just the percentage of profit made. 🚨 Pro Tip: If anyone claims they make “X% profit consistently,” be cautious—it’s probably a scam. Real traders focus on maintaining consistent risk management and realistic expectations. 💬 Final Thoughts: If you took any of these trades or have similar setups, share your experience in the comments! And if you’ve got any questions or insights, drop them below—I’m here to help and discuss. Let’s grow together, not alone! 💪🔥 Wishing you an awesome weekend!
SPREADEX:SPX
by SkepticWise
Skeptic | SPX Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown?Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a complete analysis of SPX on the 4-hour time frame. We’ll break down the market structure and identify key long and short triggers for potential entries. Let’s get into it! 🔍 Market Overview Starting with the weekly time frame, it’s clear that the major trend remains uptrend . However, the daily time frame shows that we’ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend . This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame , we’re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion . This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher. 💡 Long Setup Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67 . To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice. The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial. 🚩 Short Setup For short positions, I’m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77 , signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, I’d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short. Let me know your thoughts on SPX ! 💬 Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them. Let’s grow together, not alone! ❤
SPREADEX:SPX
by SkepticWise
1
Silver (XAG/USD) Analysis: Ready for the Next Move?Welcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic , and today we're diving into an analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the 1-hour time frame to spot potential long and short triggers. 🔮 Daily Time Frame Insight XAG/USD remains bullish on the daily chart as we’re consistently printing higher lows, maintaining the overall uptrend. Given the current economic and geopolitical tensions, caution is essential, but the bullish structure remains intact, so we can still anticipate further upward movement. 📈1-Hour Time Frame & Long Trigger In the 1-hour time frame, the bullish momentum is clearly visible. Pullbacks are lengthy with large candles, while uptrends are sharp with smaller, more concentrated candles. This pattern indicates strong buying interest when momentum picks up. Our primary long trigger will be a break above the 4-hour resistance at 33.00237 . Additionally, if the RSI re-enters the overbought zone during the breakout, it will add more confirmation and confidence to the long position, allowing us to increase our risk slightly. 📉 Short Trigger For short setups, I’ll wait for a clear break of the support at 31.92637 , which also coincides with the previous low. If the downward move is sharp and decisive, this could signal a potential short entry. Until then, I’ll stay on the sidelines for shorts, as the overall trend remains bullish. Let me know your thoughts and ideas on XAG/USD! 💬 Drop any questions in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them. Let’s grow together, not alone! 🔥
OANDA:XAGUSD
by SkepticWise
3
Gold Analysis: Is the Uptrend Still Alive?Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a quick analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) . Let’s break it down. 📈 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis In the 4-hour time frame, we recently observed a range box breakout, but the price quickly pulled back into the box, indicating that sellers failed to maintain the bearish momentum. This suggests that the daily major uptrend is still holding strong. 🔮 Our next move? If we see a break above the 4-hour resistance at 2927.25 , it could be a solid signal to position ourselves for a potential continuation of the uptrend. The ultimate bullish trigger will be the breakout above 2954.74 , confirming strength and momentum to the upside. 💡 Market Sentiment and Risk Management However, with the current geopolitical and economic uncertainties, it’s crucial to be extra cautious. Considering recent global developments, it’s wise to reduce risk exposure. Staying agile and managing stops effectively will help navigate any unexpected volatility. 📉 Short Setup For short positions, our key trigger is a break below the support at 2878.84 . Once broken, there’s no significant support until 2841.74, which means the move could be sharp and rapid. However, since this support is critical, be prepared for potential volatility and adjust your stop losses accordingly. I’m Skeptic, and I’m always glad to share insights with you guys. Let me know your thoughts in the comments, and feel free to ask any questions. See you in the next analysis! <3
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by SkepticWise
3
Skeptic | Ethereum (ETH/USD) Analysis: Breakout or Breakdown?Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into one of the most popular coins out there— Ethereum (ETH) . Let’s find some solid triggers and setups while picking up a few educational tips along the way. 💡 🔮 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis As you can see on the chart, after the sell-off candle , ETH entered a 4-hour range box . We witnessed volume decrease during the range formation and a sharp volume spike during the box breakout, confirming momentum increase. Following the breakdown below the box support at $2,521.23, we entered a downward channel, with the price respecting the channel's upper, lower, and mid lines. 📈 Long Setup To enter a long position, I’d wait for a break above the resistance at $2,144 , which would also indicate a breakout from the downward channel. Keep in mind that this setup is against the current trend, so it’s crucial to use a tight stop loss and secure profits early as reversals are likely. 📉 Short Setup For a short position, I’d consider entering after a breakdown below the support at $1,751.00 . Additionally, if the RSI re-enters the overbought zone during the breakout, it will add more confirmation. This setup would align better with the prevailing trend, giving us a higher confidence level. To set your profit targets, you can clone the existing channel and place it above or below the current one, as price is likely to react to these levels. Let me know your thoughts on ETH/USD! 💬 Got any questions? Drop them in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss. Let’s grow together, not alone! 🔥
by SkepticWise
1
Skeptic | Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis: Navigating the ChaosWelcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic , and today we’re diving into Bitcoin (BTC/USD) after a series of intense market moves driven by Trump's tariff decisions, rising inflation concerns, and persistent interest rates. Let’s break it down and see where we stand. 🔮 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis Bitcoin recently faced some heavy volatility, but as I mentioned in previous analyses, we have a strong PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) between $80,000 - $82,000 . This zone has managed to hold weekly candles above it, maintaining the major uptrend on the weekly chart. However, on lower time frames, the downtrend is still prominent, so it’s crucial to stay cautious with short positions for now. Having a balanced perspective on the market always helps, so while the long-term trend remains bullish, we should be mindful of short-term bearish momentum and avoid being overly biased. 📉 Short Setup The previous short trigger at 88,322.42 worked out well, giving us a solid downward move. Currently, the situation has become more complex with heightened volatility and uncertainty. Therefore, it’s wise to reduce risk for now. Our primary short trigger is a break below 79,083.93 . Once this level gives way, the next support target would be 76,616.28 , which could also serve as a safe spot to secure some profit. 📈 Long Setup For long positions, I’d prefer waiting for a break above 83,818.74 . However, rather than jumping in right away, I’d like to see a confirmed higher high and higher low , allowing us to enter with a tighter stop loss and a better risk/reward ratio . This approach increases our confidence and reduces exposure. Let me know your thoughts on BTC/USD ! 💬 Got any questions? Drop them in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss. Let’s grow together, not alone! 🔥
by SkepticWise
1
WTI Crude Oil Analysis: Is the Downtrend Still in Play?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a quick analysis of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) . Let’s break it down. 📉 4-Hour Time Frame Analysis In the 4-hour time frame, WTI has shown a very strong corrective move, and despite trying to hold the support zone PRZ, it even failed to maintain it, suggesting a potential downtrend. Now, we have an opportunity to focus more on our short setups, but we’ll need to manage the risk as well. 🔮 Short Setup For short positions, a break below the 4-hour support at 65.183 would be a good trigger to enter a short position. Place the stop loss just above the broken PRZ, around 67.024 , and keep an eye on price action as a sharp movement down could follow. If the support breaks, we’re likely to see a continuation towards the next support level, so the move could be pretty sharp, but make sure your stop loss is tight to manage risk effectively. 💡 Long Setup For the long setup, we’ll wait for a potential fake breakout below the support and then look for a return above 67.024 . If we break above the resistance at 67.639 , we’ll look for a possible long continuation. However, since the current trend is bearish, we’ll reduce our risk and wait for confirmation from the 4-hour or daily time frames before entering. Let me know your thoughts and ideas on WTI! 💬 Drop any questions in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them. Let’s grow together, not alone! 🔥
BLACKBULL:WTI
by SkepticWise
1
AUD/NZD Multi-Timeframe Breakdown: Trend Shift or Retracement?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a multi-timeframe analysis of AUD/NZD. (As I mentioned this pair on our weekly watchlist on March 9th.) At the end, I’ll also share some solid long and short triggers that you definitely don’t want to miss—so let’s get into it! 📉 Daily Time Frame Analysis In the daily time frame, we can clearly see a strong major uptrend that has been holding the price upward. However, recently, the upward trendline has broken, which could indicate the start of a retracement . This break hints at a potential shift or correction rather than a complete trend reversal, so we need to stay cautious. 🔍 4H Time Frame Analysis: Finding Triggers Moving on to the 4-hour time frame, it’s clear that we’ve had a clean pullback to the previous upward trendline. As I pointed out in my weekly watchlist analysis, the main trigger for a short position was at 1.10115 , which has just been activated . If you took that trade with me, you’re in profit right now! But don’t worry if you missed it—you still have a chance to catch the next move. Since the trendline is broken, we could see a sharp uptrend retracement movement if the price breaks our 4h support level. Short Trigger: I’ll be waiting for a breakout below 1.10087 to look for another short opportunity. Long Trigger: I’ll be watching for a higher high and higher low to confirm that the uptrend is still intact. Specifically, a breakout above 1.10544 would signal a potential long entry. 💡 Always remember: trading in the direction of the main trend typically yields higher R/R and win rates. Don’t trade against the trend unless you have a very strong reason to do so. I’d love to hear your thoughts on AUD/NZD —drop your opinions in the comments below! Also, if you have any questions about trading or strategy, just ask—I’ll make sure to reply. Let’s keep growing together, not alone! 💪
by SkepticWise
1
DXY Breakdown: Major Support in Play or More Downside Ahead?Welcome back, guys! 👋 I'm Skeptic , and let's kick off the week with a unique and exciting analysis of DXY. 🔍 Daily Time Frame Analysis Starting with the daily time frame, DXY recently hit a significant peak at 109.655 , followed by a sharp decline, breaking below the critical support zone at 107.405 . This breakdown resulted in forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming a bearish structure. Afterward, DXY retraced sharply to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of its major uptrend, signaling a potential corrective phase. Although the sentiment remains bearish for now, we must consider the possibility of a price reversal from this crucial support zone. ⏳ 4H Time Frame Analysis Now, moving to the 4-hour time frame, as discussed in the previous analysis, we anticipated a breakdown of 104.235 , which indeed played out, hitting our target of 103.398 . Currently, the 104.235 level serves as a 4H resistance, while 103.303 acts as a daily support. These two levels form our main triggers: 💚 Long Trigger: Above 104.259 (confirming a potential reversal) 🔴 Short Trigger: Below 103.303 (aligned with the short-term downtrend) The short trigger has a higher win rate and risk-to-reward ratio since it aligns with the ongoing bearish trend. 💡 Final Thoughts Thanks for sticking with me through this analysis! I hope your week ahead is profitable and insightful. Remember, planning and executing trades with clarity is the key to long-term success. Catch you on the next breakdown! 🚀
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
Weekly Watchlist & Market Outlook (#1)Welcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic , and today, I’m breaking down my weekly watchlist with key market setups. Having a structured plan before the trading week starts helps you stay mentally prepared, avoid impulsive trades, and stick to your strategy. So, let’s dive in! 1. XAUUSD (Gold) 🟡 Daily TF: Gold has maintained a strong major uptrend and recently completed a price correction to 2842.15 (36% Fib) before resuming its upward movement. This signals a potential continuation of the bullish trend. Trigger (Daily): Break above 2954.24 🔼 4H TF: Price is currently in a range between 2896 (support) and 2927 (resistance). Long trigger:Breakout above 2927 Short trigger: Below 2896 (although trading in the trend’s direction is recommended for better R/R). 2. EURJPY 💶 Daily TF: The pair is ranging between 155.551 (support) and 161.166 (resistance). 4H TF: Long trigger: Breakout above 161.166 📈 (RSI entering overbought territory could add confluence). Short trigger: Break below 159.291 targeting the range’s bottom. 3. GBPAU D Daily TF: The key resistance at 2.02396 has been broken, signaling a new uptrend. 4H TF: Long trigger: Breakout above 2.05139 🔼 for trend continuation. Short trigger: If 2.02396 fails as support (fake breakout), look for lower TF confirmation. 4. GBPNZD Daily TF: Similar to GBPAUD, 2.23992 resistance has been broken, and price has pulled back. 4H TF: Long trigger: Breakout above 2.26565 📈 for continuation. Short trigger: If 2.23992 fails (fake breakout scenario). 5. AUDNZD Daily TF: A strong uptrend was recently broken, potentially signaling a price correction. 4H TF: Short trigger: Break below 1.10115 🔻 (sign of further downside). Long trigger: If price reclaims the broken trendline, indicating a fake breakdown. Final Thoughts 💡 Thanks for following this week’s watchlist! If you have specific pairs or assets you’d like me to analyze, drop them in the comments. Growing alone may be fast, but in the long run, teamwork wins. Let’s grow together. ❤️
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
BTC at a Crossroads: Key Levels & Market Triggers Ahead of NFPWelcome back, guys! I'm Skeptic, and let's dive into today's BTC analysis. Daily Time Frame Overview As previously mentioned in past analyses, the 85K level , followed by the 80-82K range , has been a crucial support zone for BTC. So far, price has reacted well to this level, showing strong buying pressure. Additionally, BTC has reached the Pivot Point 4 weekly level , meaning we could expect either a range-bound movement or a potential price rebound. However, the market remains highly volatile due to external factors—mainly Trump's recent actions. On Sunday , Trump’s tweet triggered a market pump, only to be reversed the following day after his tariff war statements. Given this unpredictability, if you’re looking to buy BTC for a long-term hold, here are two key triggers to consider: Trigger 1 : Wait for daily candle closure above 90,700 before entering, with a stop-loss below 80,645.37 (~12-13% SL size). Trigger 2: A breakout above 106,378.17 could be another entry point, with a stop-loss below 90,555.54 (~15% SL size). 💡 Risk Management Tip: In case of a stop-loss hit, limit losses to a max of 5% of your capital to preserve long-term profitability. 4H Time Frame - Futures & Short-Term Setups Currently, the market lacks direction and is dominated by FOMO trading. Why? Because of high-impact events happening tomorrow, which include: 📊 NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) Data Release🎤 Trump & Powell’s Speeches These could create significant volatility, making any positions riskier than usual. If you’re looking to trade BTC futures, consider these setups: Long Trigger: Above 92,200, but for a safer entry, you can wait for confirmation at 94,628.59 or even 98,600 to ride the uptrend confidently. Short Trigger: Due to the PRZ (Potential Reversal Zone) around 85K and 82K, I personally won’t short here. However, if you must, you could enter a short below 88,213.36, but only if volume confirms the move and RSI enters oversold territory. 🔔 Final Thoughts: BTC remains highly volatile due to fundamental catalysts. If you’re unsure, staying out of the market is also a position. Drop a comment if you want me to analyze a specific coin or forex pair next! Let’s grow together, not alone. Help me help you! ❤️
by SkepticWise
1
DXY at a Critical Level – Reversal or Continuation?Welcome back, guys! I’m Skeptic, and let’s break down the DXY. If you’ve been following my previous analysis, I mentioned that we are currently in a secondary downtrend, and that still holds true. However, it’s wise to gradually reduce risk and secure profits earlier for two key reasons: 1️⃣ We are approaching a critical support zone – the 60% Fibonacci retracement, which aligns with multiple key support levels. 2️⃣ The weekly candle structure – Looking at the weekly chart, we’ve already hit the four-week pivot point, meaning the market could either range here or even start a price reversal. Interesting stat: So far, this weekly candle is the largest since November 202 2 and the second-largest since March 2020, which signals significant market movement. 4H Timeframe Breakdown In my last analysis, I mentioned: 🚨 The main short trigger is at 106.188, but depending on momentum, we could potentially enter even earlier on lower timeframes. Now, 104.250 has already been broken, and the next key support sits at 103.398. 🔹 If you’re holding short positions, this 103.398 level is a great zone to secure profits. 🔹 No new triggers for now – I don’t expect immediate continuation, and as mentioned, we could see a range formation or even a reversal from here. Let’s see how price action develops. See you in the next analysis! 🔥📉
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
USD/CAD – High Probability Long SetupHey guys, welcome back! I'm Skeptic, and today I want to share an interesting long setup on USD/CAD that could present a solid trading opportunity. Let's break it down! 📌 1D Timeframe Analysis After the previous uptrend, USD/CAD entered a long consolidation phase within a daily range. Recently, we saw a fake breakout of the range low, followed by strong bullish momentum, indicating a potential attempt to break the key resistance at 1.45172. If this breakout is successful, we could see higher targets being tested. 📌 4H Timeframe & Entry Plan 🔹 Trigger: Entry after the breakout of 1.44545 resistance. 🔹 Execution: You can either place a stop-buy order or wait for a breakout confirmation on lower timeframes. 🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 1.43677 (safe level). 🔹 Target: Holding towards the daily resistance at 1.45172 and beyond. 📌 Why take this trade? We are anticipating the daily breakout before it happens, rather than chasing it after the fact. If you wait for confirmation above 1.45172, you may need a wider stop-loss, making the entry less favorable due to increased volatility. 📉 Risk management remains key! Make sure to size your position accordingly and avoid overleveraging. 💬 What’s your take on this USD/CAD setup? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀 See you in the next analysis!
Long
by SkepticWise
1
DXY Analysis: Rejection from Resistance – More Downside AheadWelcome back, guys! I'm Skeptic, and let's start the week with a DXY analysis. This is a crucial period for the dollar index, with many significant events unfolding—one of the most important being Trump’s tariff war. Now, let’s break down the technical outlook on DXY. 1D Timeframe Looking at the daily chart, we can see that DXY has been rejected from a key resistance zone. Additionally, since it has formed a lower high, I still maintain my previous analysis that DXY is currently undergoing a correction within its previous uptrend. This means we could see further declines. The key support level to watch here is the 35% Fibonacci retracement zone at 105.720. 4H Timeframe – Finding a Trigger On the 4H chart, we had a daily resistance zone that was briefly broken but turned out to be a fake breakout. This suggests that liquidity has been swept above the resistance, liquidating long positions, and now the market has more momentum to push downward. The main short trigger is at 106.188, but depending on momentum, we could potentially enter even earlier on lower timeframes. Key Risk Factor: While we are currently in a correction phase, the major trend is still an uptrend. That means risk should be managed carefully, and trades should be closed sooner than usual. Final Thoughts Thanks for sticking around until the end of the analysis. From now on, I’ve decided to publish separate analyses for indices, forex pairs, and BTC instead of grouping them into one post. Let me know what you think about this new format— do you prefer everything in one post, or is this better? See you in the next analysis! 🚀
TVC:DXYShort
by SkepticWise
4