nzd/ usd shortnzd is on a weekly resistance and looksto be coming down. there's a daily harmonic W pattern signaling that it wants to test the weekly low.
there is usd cpi today, 2/10, and fed j powell is speaking. i think those 2 high risk events may help this move.
entry: .72336
stop: .7268
target: .90965
Ratio 4:1
Slatt
eur/usd BULLISH 8hr harmonic M Classic M pattern on eu. Although it looks like a H&S on a larger time frame. i believe it has found support.
on a fundamental side, i dont believe this nfp week will be good. employment isnt where it needs to be, biden has rejected the GOP $618B stimulus package.
Democrats are taking their first votes Tuesday toward passing a $1.9 trillion coronavirus bill, potentially without Republican support.
President Joe Biden met with GOP senators, who are offering a roughly $600 billion proposal. (we know he declined it)
The budget resolution Democrats put forward would allow them to pass stimulus checks, unemployment benefits, vaccine distribution funds, and state and local government aid. - via CNBC
DXY Jan 21'chart explained below .. just a simple dxy chart
ONLY THING NEW i added to these charts are the rectangles
1: the YELLOW boxes are just gaps left by the dxy
2: (greenish / redish box ) are my new custom supply and demand zones
white dotted line connects : mid march - mid may highs .. as shown in previous charts
previous chart :
blue lines are cloned trend lines that i've discovered are acting as support/resistance to the trend
green / red lines - horizontal levels to be aware of
ONLY THING NEW i added to these charts are the rectangles
1: the YELLOW boxes are just gaps left by the dxy
2; (greenish / redish box ) are my new custim supply and demand zones
EUR/USD Get the Printer Readyeur usd is going to go long in my eyes. not only did i point out the rsi hitting oversold for eur strength, as well as the usd strength going to dip under the rsi.. it's only a matter of time before the euro just rips through.
first sign is going to be thursday with j pow's speech. as long as he is clear with the markets then we are fine. within the same day, biden's stimulus package will be reveals including $1,400 checks, $600 for unemployment through OCTOBER (may be revised down until June), more money for vaccine distributions.
if we reach 1.224 and hold is as support by the weeks end .. i'll update to apign with next week's news and pmi data coming out of euro during the ECB Press Conference and their PMI data
EUR CAD BUY 4HR HARMONIC 'M' PATTERN FOUND
what im looking for is 1.5527 to find support along a previous inverted H&s neckline(blue) & also the horizontal support of 1.55
my ideal ENTRY would be 1.55 but that may be too late, so anywhere under 1.5527 is good enough for me to continue to avg down my positions with a stop at 1.548 if it came to that point
so my ideal entry and tp scenario oes like this
stop 1.548
entry 1.55
tp1 - 1.5565
tp2 - 1.565
tp3 - 1.567
if we get to to 1.56 im going to update and let the trade run by itself as i will be looking to take most of my profit off around there
EUR/USD shorti dont believe this bubble last without 2 things
1: stimulus, which get voted on friday december 18th
&
2: fomc meeting tmrw, is the fed going to continue to to stay cautious or tighten up.. retail sales are expected to decline, covid is rising again , and im interested to see how the fed reacts... remember the second stimulus was already priced in, but have YET to see it.
also in the long term a stronger euro impedes and slows down the European recovery. Their currency strength doesnt match up with their economy, this may be the end of the bubble, respectively
NZD/JPY potential swing shorti/we bought it on the way up TWICE : 1ST TIME
2ND TIME :
i mean YEN is highly IN DEMAND, i think it's only right i sell, just going to give it a shot . it was already rejected by the blue line like i was looking for, and it stood sideways for a couple days. May just be the order gather for the short in my opinion.
My entry 73.6
Tp1 73.15 & Tp2 72.75.. then maybe i give this an update
USD/CAD AVG PRICE (potential SWING buy)only thing im waiting for to truly go long on this pair is the CAD Cash Rate thats coming up here within 4 hours, but 1.2875 is the avg price for usd cad. I've been watching it for days.. the pair has obviously found support but the cash rate is the only thing putting pressure on the cad. That happens at 10AM EST.
Oil has dropped, dollar(dxy) has hid a demand zone, those are all the confirmations i need.
so Avg entry is 1.2875 (i will be wait for cash rate spike to get in at a lower price)
My first take profit is not until 1.292, that is literally 135 pips, im just going to take 40% off and let it run to it's full potential. all of my take profit's are on the chart....
REMEMBER CAD CASH RATE MAY SPIKE THIS DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 4 HOURS
Nov 30-Dec 4 Aud/Jpy Swing Trade (continuation)this is why im long aud jpy, i see a 3day ascending wedge pattern forming, some people move their rend lines because of false break outs but as you can see i never moved my green or red trend lines and i also am buying off of the green trend line just under the red because i cloned that resistance one and brought it down just a little bit because it was a prior resistance in the past if u can see, so i know where im wrong and im minimizing risk.
ALSO on the FUNDAMENTAL view of things we have the following upcoming events
Mon Nov 30 @ 10:30PM EST AUD : Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement
Tue Dec 1 @ 7:30PM EST AUD : GDP q/q
If all goes as expected, we should see massive spikes within the pair. Then let's see how the rest of NFP week plays out.
There's also the fact that there is a daily Head and Shoulders pattern close to the neckline
& a 3 day also approaching a neckline
if you've made it this far, & you've most likely taken my trade before, feel free to show love via CashApp: $BakedBenji
aud / jpy buy
this is why im long aud jpy, i see a 3day ascending wedge pattern forming, some people move their rend lines because of false break outs but as you can see i never moved my green or red trend lines and i also am buying off of the green trend line just under the red because i cloned that resistance one and brought it down just a little bit because it was a prior resistance in the past if u can see, so i know where im wrong and im minimizing risk.
ALSO on the FUNDAMENTAL view of things we have the following upcoming events
Mon Nov 30 @ 10:30PM EST AUD : Cash Rate / RBA Rate Statement
Tue Dec 1 @ 7:30PM EST AUD : GDP q/q
If also goes as expected, we should see massive spikes within the pair.
11/22- 11/27 EUR/CAD Potential Bull Flag SWINGDISCLAIMER: I've already entered this trade on Friday, I've posted a previous idea for a potential buy below and i've BEEN PLOTTING on this. Eur/Cad has been in a sideways downtrend ever since August (white line) & we are coming up for another test of the trend line. Feel free to make this chart yours. ALERTS ARE SET ON MY TREND LINES... So for this to continue, these are what im looking for:
1. A break of my white box to the upside, holding this 1.553 (green dotted line) area as support
2. Break of the white dashed line into my red line (1.5585)
3. MOST IMPORTANTLY for the hold.. end the week above the white or red line
Blue line is a previous Head & Shoulder neckline that is unique. it acted as support and resistance along this trend dating all the way back to June 2019... as we in closer that will be my target.
Orange Price Boxes are my TP's
Right off the bat going into London we have MAJOR volatility news with the EURO PMI data coming out.. that's kinda when im expecting this to make a decision..
This trade is at break even. if we can't break i'll close.
NZD/JPY buying opportunityi believe NZD/JPY is looking to find support somewhere around here... PURELY FUNDAMENTAL from my perspective but it lines up with the TECHNICALS.
Tonight 7:30PM Est
we have AUD employment change and unemployment rate.. as long as they come in better than expected or at expected numbers, aud is going to spike upwards. Aud/Nzd tend to follow the same path, so if it's bullish for AUD, it's bullish for NZD.
Sunday 4:45 EST before market even opens NZD is reporting retail sales which may lead to a gap just prior to the open which i don't think they'll be to fond of closing.
Tuesday Nov 24th 3PM is the RBNZ Financial Stability Report
ALSO as we have seen TWICE now, any progress into a vaccine has led to the weakening of JPY, GOLD, and put a slight bid to the DOLLAR (which ultimately is a fake out, only because it put a bid into the dollar OVER the yen, meaning dollar is still weak)
AUD/JPY SWING TRADEAUD/JPY coming into trend resistance.. so this is a safe low risk short for me. The only volatility i expect to maybe shake up my decision, are the following;
BoE, Largade, & Fed Speech at the end of the week(11/13)
Maybe Japan Prelim GDP on Sunday Market open (11/15)
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for Aud on Monday(11/16)
BIG MOVER: AUD UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & EMPLOYMENT CHAGNGE ON WEDNESDAY during Intraday (11/18)
i entered on market around 76.928. There was a bunch of JPY weakness across the board following the Vaccine announcement. Jpy is over extended, the market over reacted, but has yet come to it's senses.
AUD strength in GREEN
RSI in YELLOW
JPY strength in RED
YELLOW DOTTED LINE - Alerts set for RESISTANCE or TAKE PROFIT (if successful i will update after 1st tp)
I personally just set alerts and hold until my final target is reached UNLESS the technical break. Yellow lines just alert me on when i should be aware of a POSSIBLE trend change.
BLUE FLAG/DOTTED LINES - BONUS PIP.. by then 60%-70% of my profit is taken out and i trail by 30 pips.
IF 75 (TARGET PRICE) is reached we will get neutral take 40% off and just wait for the market to give us a signal