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Looking back at equity factors in Q4 with WisdomTreeAfter three negative quarters, 2022 closed with a bang. Equities around the world delivered very strong returns in both October and November on the back of relatively good news on the inflation front. Therefore, despite a negative December, developed market equities gained 9.8% in Q4, and emerging market equities gained 9.7%. This instalment of the WisdomTree Quarterly Equity Factor Review aims to shed some light on how equity factors behaved in this rebound and how this may have impacted investors’ portfolios. Overall factors performed strongly for Global and US investors. Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4. Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest performance in both regions. In Europe, Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. Looking forward to 2023, the same issues that drove markets in 2022 remain. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above target. In an environment where interest rates and inflation remain high, and volatility of both equities and interest rates is increasing, we continue to tilt toward High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Performance in focus: High Dividend and Value finish strong In the fourth quarter of 2022, equity markets posted their first positive quarter of the year across regions. In October and November, markets benefitted from positive inflation numbers and increased hopes for a Fed Pivot or at least a pause in rate hikes leading to a sharp rebound. MSCI World gained 7.2% and 7% in those two months, respectively. However, hopes of such a pivot were dashed quickly, with the Federal Reserve Chair making clear in the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that he wanted to see “substantially” more progress on inflation before the hiking would stop. This led the MSCI World to lose -4.3% in December. Overall, factors performed strongly for Global and US investors: Only Growth delivered an underperformance in Q4 in US and global equities Value, High Dividend and High Quality dividend payers delivered the best performance across regions but mostly in the US. In Europe, factors had a more difficult time. Small Cap stocks performed the best, followed by Value and High Dividend stocks but Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility delivered underperformance. In emerging markets, Value and High Quality dividend payers delivered the strongest outperformance. In this market, Quality, Momentum and Min Volatility also delivered underperformance. In Q4, the market environment continued to discriminate strongly between Quality stocks. The definition of Quality and the criteria used have hugely impacted the result. Quality, left unattended, tends to tilt toward growth (investors pay for Quality, after all) and would have suffered from that tilt, as illustrated with MSCI Quality (‘Quality’ in Figures 1 and 2). Highly profitable companies and dividend growers have fared better this quarter, as illustrated by WisdomTree Quality. 2022, the year of the dividends Looking back at the whole year, High Dividend has dominated the factor space consistently across the year. It delivered a 13.4% outperformance to the MSCI World and a 15.2% outperformance versus the MSCI USA. In Global equities, Value and Min Volatility completed the podium with 8.3% of outperformance. In the US, the podium is a bit different, with WisdomTree Quality (that is, High Quality dividend payers) finishing second (+11.4%) and Min Volatility and Value coming third and fourth. In both regions, Growth and Quality (with its growth tilt) were the only factors to deliver underperformance. In Europe, High Dividend and Value also dominated the field. Valuations rebounded in Q4 In Q4 2022, valuations rebounded across the board on the back of markets’ positive performance. Small Caps saw the largest increases with +1.7 in Global and European equities and +2.2 in US equities. European and Emerging markets remain quite cheap, leading to factors being cheap as well. Emerging market value is currently priced at a 4.9 P/E Ratio. Looking forward to 2023, recession risk is continuing to rise. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is warning of a recession in the US, a deep slowdown in Europe, and a drawn-out recession in the United Kingdom. While inflation has shown signs of easing, we expect central banks to remain hawkish around the globe as inflation is still very meaningfully above targets. The Federal Reserve made clear in its December meeting that ‘substantially’ more progress will need to happen on the inflation front before hiking stops. The European Central Bank (ECB) projections show inflation is unlikely to reach the 2% target until late 2025, leading to a hawkish turn there as well. The Bank of Japan also surprised markets in December with its own hawkish move. Overall, as we transition to 2023, three questions still remain unanswered from 2022: 1) how sticky will the underlying inflation be 2) how intense will the recession be 3) will we find a solution to Europe’s energy crisis? With markets facing the same issues in 2023 that they faced in the second half of 2022, we continue to tilt toward the strategies that delivered for investors in 2022, that is, High Dividend, Value and High Quality dividend payers. Please note: World is proxied by MSCI World net TR Index. US is proxied by MSCI USA net TR Index. Europe is proxied by MSCI Europe net TR Index. Emerging Markets is proxied by MSCI Emerging Markets net TR Index. Minimum volatility is proxied by the relevant MSCI Min Volatility net total return index. Quality is proxied by the relevant MSCI Quality net total return index. Momentum is proxied by the relevant MSCI Momentum net total return index. High Dividend is proxied by the relevant MSCI High Dividend net total return index. Size is proxied by the relevant MSCI Small Cap net total return index. Value is proxied by the relevant MSCI Enhanced Value net total return index. WisdomTree Quality is proxied by the relevant WisdomTree Quality Dividend Growth Index.
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by aneekaguptaWTE
2
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: USDCHF Is Slowing DownHello traders, today we will talk about USDCHF pair. We will show you price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott wave perspective. USDCHF came higher very aggressively back in April and at the start of May, but after recent slow down for the US dollar, we can see USD is the weakest against CHF currency. So, USDCHF pair can be now trading in an Elliott wave (A)-(B)-(C) corrective decline. In Elliott waves, we always have to expect corrections to be made by three waves A-B-C, especially if we get a five-wave impulse in the first leg A. With current sharp and impulsive decline, USDCHF can be now finishing an Elliott wave five-wave cycle within first leg (A). So, bounce and Elliott wave three-wave A-B-C corrective recovery in wave (B) can be around the corner before we will see another decline for wave (C). Resistance can be anywhere between 0.98 – 0.99 area. Happy trading! If you like what we do, then please like and share our idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
by ew-forecast
SPX - DJT - CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE!SPX - DJT -CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE! The SPX and DJT are highly correlated, this is to say that the correlation indicates the underlying demand for goods requiring transportation. In a previous chart using the same tickers I showed you that there was no confirmation of an economic 'slowdown', this time we do! NOTE where I have made notations. The previous confirmation was Februray, 2020 - need I say anymore. ** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE **
SP:SPXShort
by alphamindset
1
Bye Bye growth, oh hello turbulent timesIf my idea is not displaying correctly here is a screenshot: I hope this is not too thick to read. An edited video would be better. Or maybe I could make a version with small screenshots rather than 1 big block of text? A little additional explanation if you are interested ==> Part 1: France 2022 elections Frenchies are complaining about "toxic ideas that come from the anglo-saxon world". LOL. Someone explain to the french all these "cultural marxist" ideas don't come from the USA/Canada/etc but FROM FRANCE. They merely embraced these ideas, France was born in them, molded by them. They were born here in France buddies, exported to the english speaking world, and they are simply coming back like a boomerang. The far right is for the first time getting 50% intentions of vote at turn 2. In April 2017 they came second in turn 1, and EURUSD gapped 150 points iirc over that weekend. In France the president forms the government, he decides who the unelected first minister will be. It's like the UK where the queen appoints the first minister expect no one has a clue who it will be, or even heard of that guy until he get appointed 😃 These elections are not only important because the far right & the gap but also because in 2022 it is France that will preside the European Union 😃 And the french far right is stupposed to be pro Frexit, but recently they have been flaunting the vertues of Europe (to get votes). So who knows? The major left wing party, LFI, are now the demon, and liberals want to get their voters. LFI is our Trump. I wrote several times this right wing demonization was BS and they'd do it to the left in a heartbeat, and here we are 😉. LFI calls them the party of freedom, actually not even a party but "just an idea" (with elected officials under that banner but w/e). LFI says they are not islamo-gauchistes (a dum dum concept invented by the media to tell their sheep who to frown at, just like the word "racist"). LFI says they're not even leftists but just the people that are pro-freedom. Trying to avoid dum dum demonization? Not leftists lmao, they praise the virtues of a planned economy, are in awe of the soviet union, form alliances with communists, want to tax high earners at 100%, call celebrities & athletes worthless parasites (isn't that true though?), and the worse part: Hate multinationals! Oh no not our monopolistic profits. Oh no! How dare you criticize Gilead and Pfizer! Conspiracy theorist! So here we have the truth. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the UK? The Brexit clan, anti-multinational. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in the US? The Trump clan, anti-multinational. Who are the "eeeevil bad guys" in France? The Stalinists, anti-multinational. They tried taking away their profits, and so they declared war on them... After WW2 there was a debate. Was Hitler inevitable, or an anomaly? It was concluded, and is now the scientific consensus (HAHAHAHA!) that fascism & communism were the outcome of short term problems. Don't you dare say they fixed the problems. Economists say Hitler built a monster economy BUT he was mean therefore it does not count (seriously that's what they say). The NSDAP was so successful that they lost their mind... What they did with that success is not the question. What is in focus is the answer to the question "why are liberals so terrified of national-socialist fascism if they have so little support"? Because they win. They get strong. Germany went from a third world country to a superpower. To take down that small country it took the entire Soviet Union, AND the USA, AND North Africa, AND all of Europe resistants. Just damn. It would not cross liberal-bourgeois minds that THEY are the problem. If they do not get replaced by someone slightly radical that will fix the problem, it will keep getting worse. Like the devil said to south park kids "ok you can postpone it but it will be 10 times worse". Getting rid of Trump, getting rid of Marine Le Pen by baiting her voters to vote for you, to "buy time while problems solve themselves". How dense are those people? The fascists even love this because now they DO want it to get worse. They consider Trump & Bolsonaro are traitors that are not the messiah they were hoping for. They are even saying "voting will not remove them". And they may have a point. EU & USA are old states. Old people don't vote for radical change. They vote for the status quo, for "no waves" while they peacefully live their last days. If adults go out in the street to start fighting will the "no waves" old people go fight? They will tremble and home and pray for things to calm down. "Buy time" just such a dumb concept. I don't want to go on and on so finally here: In 44 BC the roman swamp impeached Julius Caesar with knives. Hurray! The populare dictator is gone! Hurray! Yay! Return to normalcy! (This was a slogan by a US candidate just before WW2 😆) And then a civil war erupted and EVERY SINGLE CONSPIRATOR GOT BRUTALLY SLAUGHTERED. Yaaaay 😆 27 BC, 17 years after Caesar heinous murder, the Empire is born. Augustus Caesar's nephew is the Emperor. Ah and the senate greatly lost power (hurray). The swamp won't let people vote for "populism". "Just buy time problems will magically go away". So we might end up with a power vacuum. So who will we get? Robespierre (Louis XVI vacuum), Hitler (Keiser/Caesar vacuum), Lenin/Stalin (Tsar N2 vacuum), a Caligula maybe? Part 2: The population aging More "buying time" (to make things worse later). Printing money to buy time. High IQ strat. Watch GS Lloyd Blankfein interview/discussion of Paul Tudor Jones (June 18 2018): "The hope is from the guys making the monetary policies that the growth catches up and solves the problem HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA" The BOJ gave up this "monetary stimulus" nonsense. They just capitulated after trying so hard. One nice thing is at some points they were so desperate to get their decade back they literally GAVE MONEY TO SPECULATORS. When the USA & EU get desperate, and it might be soon, make sure to open your pockets. Don't get too lost in numbers and statistics or (ewwww) "charting" and nonsense indicators that don't work, looking at fundamentals & bankers mindset sometimes can provide über opportunities. That 2-in-1 idea is packed enough, I'll leave it here, and make something lighter next time. There is a lot to consider this is not a trivial game, there is no magical ichokumookookoo indicator that tells us what to do with 0 effort 0 info on anything, regardless of everything 😂 And also makes us rich quickly in top of lazilly.
by MrRenev
5
ETH - Up or Down? Will BTC dictate all crypto prices?Yesterday we had jet another unusual turn - ETH did not drop. For the last few days ETH has been rising faster than BTC, however, last night ETH slowed down and BTC picked up again tipping the scales. Forecasted ETH/BTC rise stopped at 0.046 (short of 0.05) and now dropping. This suggests that all crypto markets will rise at least until BTC reach 40-41k (possibly going for new ATH). Stay alert for today, as steep rises and drops are not out of questions. The market is testing for the peak and as soon as whales sense that it is a peak everyone should be for a watch of a steep drop. At what price this new peak will be uncovered - no one knows! Today's technicals: Forecasted highs are at 1770 and 1800. Forecasted lows are at 1650 and mid-way point fast-rising to 1580. Have fun trading!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DataMoney
1
HDFC AMC Near March LowsHDFC has recently broke-down a channel and descending triangle second week September. channel broke-down and support trendline are exactly matching at 2280 range. more over channel broke-down and descending triangle broke-down are indicating a target of 2000 which also matching with recent march lows. So we can see a pull at 1980-2000 range. however this stock is trading below 200DMA and weakness is continued after post pull back of march crash. it it comes 2000 levels again then 1600-1750 looks good for support.
NSE:HDFCAMC
by VijayBabuA
COMP/USD - Slowdown formation (CAUTION)Hello, Traders! Today, we're gonna look at the COMPOUND decentralized protocol. COMP had a great start finding its all-time low early on at $61 (still a 100% return from the $30 USD ICO). COMP then began to be listed onto various exchanges and was subjected to ferocious buying activity seeing COMP soar all the way to $372 USD only 6 days after the token ICO finished. This was a 1100% return from the ICO price – in less than a week! However, since then, COMP has consistently lost its value, falling from $372 USD towards $135 USD representing a 63% decrease from ATHs in June. However with many DeFi coins performing spectacularly recently (especially the one later on in the report…), what does the future price action hold for COMP? The contraction of PPs can suggest that the current trend could be coming to an end. However, as demonstrated below it appears that there will be a short term sideways trading period – likely until the end of these PPs. Since COMP entered the market it has created numerous formations. The main formations have typically been parallel channels with the addition of one descending triangle. However, the significance of these previous formations is the ever-decreasing angle of the resistance lines as shown on the chart. The indicators are currently very mixed, pointing towards both directions. To take a position now would be highly risky, waiting for a breakout to occur should decrease the risk. This breakout will also change the indicators and increase the following in one particular direction. What would you suggest the market hit later this week? Watch out for the market and good luck!
LLong
by UnknownUnicorn10064030
is EUR really looking positive? Good afternoon, Yes, the Eur did make nice up move after the Fed's minutes yesterday, only to test the 38% on the fibo retracement @1.1316. How could we forget what Mario Draghi spoke about the weakness of the EuroZone and still have this major move? I believe this is what we call 'White noise"! I shall try to keep my sights on the major news and forget all this none sense occurring at the moment. I am shorting eur @ 1.1300, stop loss @ 1.1345 and a take profit @1.1240 Good luck
Short
by Nixxflixx
EURUSD Vs. Yields 10 - 5 years.High spreads between US10Y - DE10Y and US05Y - DE05Y, Can indicate some more downside risk for the euro. There is also some hidden divergence marked with green lines. European money is flowing into less riskier assets, as EU economic forecast have been slashed, while some banks are saying that the german economy is headed for a recession which is one of the largest economies in the EU. ECB´s ending of QE program have left the Central bank with less tools to stimulate the economy. A restart of the bond buying program will put questions on the politics taken from the CB and will place them in a situation where the market will think that they dont know what they are doing. If they choose to use some tools the only option they have is the "TLTRO" (Targeted longer-term refinancing operations) Which will give the banks some available liquidity to lend money out and push the economie for some growth. The risk of a possible recession in the EU can give some concerns if the CB will raise rates at Q4 2019. A slowdown in the Chinese economy will also affect the EU, as China is one of the biggest importer of the european products. At the same time IMF downgrades global economic growth, while U.S. economy also saw some downgrade of its growth forecast. I still see the U.S economy performing better than the European. Holding shorts on EURUSD - adding more at a break of 1.11060 with target at 1.0380 and 1.0600. Hedging from those levels and watching the price before going net long position. Break of these levels could result in a further move down to 0.9600. Closing of shorts, and entering long positions will be at 1.16700 with target of 1.21300
Short
by Fx-AlphaStrats
BTC: Another Big Bart Simpson Drop?BTC has had a good run, but looks to be slowing its roll up here near a big 786 fib (the strongest correction fib), the downtrend line on the log, and the 200-day EMA right above it. BTC has reached for these three resistance levels on a somewhat overstretched run absent a true pullback so far to cool off RSI levels and form a much needed elliott wave down on higher timeframes to set up the next wave up. Both the 4h and 1D RSI are at very high levels where corrections have typically taken place historically. Beware the FOMO, entering up here carries high risk. My estimate is the super bears could be amassing short positions soon enough.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by serekamina
2
Short S&P500 1D candle / 9 month time frameI can see a repetition of the same pattern that occurred in November, with a trend reversal (Price diverges from upper BB) after a rapid rally. Furthermore, the trend reversal occurred at a consolidated resistance point 2015. Finally the stoch indicator hints to a downtrend as well as the a bearish dominance that the negative slope of the balance of power indicator has. Furthermore, it has to be noted that external, mainly european, forces put negative pressure on US equities. The brexit referendum creates uncertainty in the market and the Chinese economic slowdown contributes to the unfavourable bad earnings of Q1.
FX:SPX500Short
by BigCharts
DATA VIEW: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UPDATE - STALLING TRENDSSituation at industrial production in the US hints of a stalled recovery around 2008 highs, which is a risk, considering the fact that current base year for the indices was recently updated to 2012 (so there is no base effect in the index now) Total industrial production has recovered past its 2008 highs, but stalled somewhat at current levels since about a year ago. Manufacturing, on other hand, did not yet recover completely, however also stalled at current levels together with total index. Thus overall the situation in the indices hints of a slowdown in growth, which is not a crisis situation, but is already a risk factor to watch.
F
by Killy_Mel
INVENTORY TO SALES RATIO - A RISK INDICATOR TO WATCHInventories to Sales Ratio has been rapidly ascending recently above its usual levels of 1.3. It means that Inventories have been actually growing at a higher pace than Sales over the last several months! Savvy traders would be interested in watching this ratio as a potential risk indicator of the US economy. If the ratio continues to ascend at the current phase, it will tell us that a significant fall in business sales is happening, and/or a large excess of inventories is being accumulated in the US economy – both factors are signs of a broader economic slowdown.
FRED:ISRATIO
by Killy_Mel