Predicting the future of Silver (COMEX)Back in 2008 I began trading Silver from the bottom to around $40. I knew it was time to bail because every person I knew was talking about Silver and Gold. I like to call this my "People Index". At the time I had no idea why that was the correct move but I just knew it. After cashing out, I realized it was time to figure out the "Why". Come to find out Silver is one of the most manipulated markets on the planet and for good measure...
Oddly enough around 2011 when Silver decided to do it's thing and was pushed oh so heavily by the news media, a new comer arrived. Bitcoin. I dabbled with it then up until today but one thing that always struck me was that the timing was too perfect and today you can find more than enough evidence that Bitcoin was created by a government agency...
Now ask yourself. Why would a government create Bitcoin? Well, given the printing, which is to pump bitcoin and stocks at once along with the inflation of bitcoin. The ultimate goal is $1M USD per bitcoin. Why ? The market cap will have reached a point to allow it to become stable. The next step is with SDR's but I won't go there.
In short. All of this means Silver will rise, but at a slow rate, worst case a stair step, depending on stimulus and JP Morgan's long position. Silver will move to the upside in the next 3 months to $48 where it will stay for the foreseeable future. How do I know? Well. I can predict the future.
Best of luck, stay clear of option contracts unless you like to get burned on IV, & Theta for the next 15 or so days.
This is not investment advice. I just like Silver.
SLV
Im not a prophet but Ive traded Gold & Silver for over 15 yearsI am bidirectionally challenged most days but today I am not. I did buy massive amounts of puts a few weeks ago on SLV because the Comex is short, hedge funds are trying to offload all of their Gold and Silver, the Market is in a down turn, economic output is declining, Stimulus is drying up and rates are rising. Meanwhile "inflation" is really deflation out of control and it's going to take many more "stimmies" to save us.
So, I still believe crypto is on an upward trajectory, although the market may pull it back slightly & in a few years I think we might have a roaring stock market again, but we have to cool off and as you all know before any major run up, we have to cool off first, this is that time period for Silver. Silver has been pushed so hard by the media it is a no brainer to go all in and short thing thing down to $16 minimum, why wouldn't you? The media shills what the hedges don't want. Easy tendies, right bro?
Plus think about it, if JPow and the crew wanted this bad boy to go to the moon then they would strap it to the new rocket and shoot it to the stars but today they did just the opposite. This is purposeful and needs to be done from a technical standpoint. The market can't handle more stimmies and with bonds and rates going nuts, hell we may see the dollar shoot to 110. Wouldn't that be something.
All eyes on the Yuan though...
NOTE: Not investment advice. I just like Silver.
BEAR TRAP - SILVER IS HEADING TO $41 AND QUICKLY $SLV $PSLV The big banks will not be able to hold the floodgates much longer. They will fold and cover their shorts. At least one of them will go bust. They will be investigated for racketeering, price-fixing, and corruption by the DOJ, SEC, FCA. Silver is going to $41 nobody can stop it. It is already for some of us for physical. The price of physical including any premiums gives a better indication of the true price of silver. Silver is still holding the 50 DMA. Even if that is lost I can't see the 200 being as people will be encouraged to buy even more. Those stimi checks are coming soon! Peace.
SILVER ON THE GLOBAL RISE - LONG Dear viewers, followers, silver lovers, reddit traders, all in one (we are together)
Thank you for taking your time to read the information, that i am sharing with you all for free and backed by available research on internet.
Firstly, i will take the credit of being the early retailer that get into SLV last year in april when prices were hovering around $14, you can go back on my tradingview profile to read that idea.
I understand i will be questioned for this, but i simply am just using publicly available information, my countless hours of study and reading history to back up my idea on SILVER LONG.
Here we go!
Silver has been manipulated both ends, that being said Silver has been manipulated when it was "short" and as well when it was "long". But why?
The answer to that made me dig deep in to silver history from 1980's to 2021.
Silver is globally used in industrial sectors, recently in the last 10 years it became an important element in Automotive and Technology. Jewellery market consumption for silver is relevantly low as Gold is highly consumed in jewellery market, apart then that Gold just sit under a tight vault in banks.
From 1994 (the year i was born), silver reserve metric (q) was around 420,000 MT, in which after 2 years it raised to 1,570,000 MT, a staggering rise in mining sector around mexico, peru, bolivia, china and the rest of total 59 countries that produces silver around the world. America has by far being the biggest importer for silver since 1990's ever since gold standards were lift off by President Nixon.
During the early rise of computer and dot com boom, Silver met a giant rise in year 2000 to 1,860,000 MT and right after 2 years it dropped down to 430,000 MT. Since year 2002, Silver never went back up in reserve above 600,000 MT, which means the last time we ever had a lot of Silver available for consumption was year "2000".
Fast forward today in 2021, Silver reserve has shrunk down to between 570,000 MT to the lowest 400,000 MT. (WHAT DOES THAT MEAN) take a guess!
We have been running short on Silver since year 2004, price remained super cheap for Silver as low we saw $12 per oz in 2020 to the higher of $48 per oz in 2011 during Obama tenure.
Why recently Reddit Community have been pulling strings on going Long on Silver? Because historically it doesn't make any sense for the 15-1 ratio btw SLV & GOLD.
Meanwhile Gold remains all time high at $2075 in 2020 and Silver at $30 (2021)
Why is SILVER CHEAP? when other commodities are expensive?
Take a good guess?
From technical point of view, we have seen strong price manipulation since 1st of february 2021 when reddit pumped in over $230 million of contracts and hit new highs, and right after that it was dumped in the same direction by big banks, it could be JP Morgan or Someone out there leasing silver to private institutions for dumping (aka short squeeze). I HATE THIS GREEDY MOVE but theres nothing we can do about it, they are scared that we are all notbaly understanding the undervalued precious metal. This will EXPOSE everything about everything!
CURRENTLY ONLY 500,000 MILLION OF SILVER IN RESERVE IS AVAILABLE! (SUPPLY CHAIN) was over since 2004, but banks purposely kept the value for silver low (idk) for what BS reason.
The law of supply/demand that was stamped by Buffet in early 90's, Buffet was super big on SLV but until he found timid pressure, he had to sell off his positions. BUFFET WAS BIG SINCE 90'S.
"NUMBERS DON'T LIE" BUT THE BANKS CAN LIE
There's so much i can share about Silver, but i guess for that we will have to keep the conversation private.
Feel free to reach out to me, if you believe in Silver and it has been manipulated!
SILVER LONG
Entry: $25-$26
SL: $23.5-$24
TP1: $30
TP2: $32
TP3: TO THE MOON! ($100-$300) per oz
TP4: WEALTH FORVER (IM SURE YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN)
Silver - ready to break out of range?Since reaching $30 and coming back down, XAG has been stuck in a beautiful technical structure. It bounced straight off of the long-term fib at around $26.15 before becoming range bound between the weekly support at around $26.85 and the recent 0.618 level at about $27.75.
Last night after the market opened back up, XAG crashed back down to the long term fib at $26.15 before being bought straight back up. You can see this on the 5m chart (I would post it but TV won't let me with my rep level).
Combined with all the talk of Gold bouncing off its support and starting a new bull run and the general rising trajectory of Silver, I feel like Silver is ready to make a move up into the $28-29 area.
If we do break out past $27.75, $28.27 will probably be where it finds resistance. I would say the best setup if you aren't in already would be to buy on the pullback of this break at $27.75.
Entry: $27.75
TP: $28.76
SL: $27.47 (feel free to go wider as the broken fib level should provide some decent support)
Happy trading!
SILVER futures contractsSilver contracts ending. Big banks have big shorts at 28 and 3x bigger at 30. Based on comex puts and calls. They will do everything to keep prices below these levels until the contracts end. Also they have changed their prospectus and laws to be able to manipulate the futures market (SLV). Or something like that, just a call to do your own research. Correct me if I am wrong.
OPENING (IRA): SLV JAN 15/MARCH 16/26 LONG CALL DIAGONAL... for an 8.74/contract debit.
Notes: In lieu of selling short puts, taking advantage of SLV skew here with a long call diagonal, buying the back month 91 delta and selling the front month 43. Paying 8.74 for a 10-wide with a max profit metric of 1.16/contract (13.3% ROC) with ample opportunity to reduce cost basis further and therefore increase max profit potential. The additional benefit is that this is more buying power efficient than, for example, selling a 20 delta short put here and with greater profit potential.
Chart of premium/discount of PSLV, and volume ratioThe top of this chart is the ratio of PSLV price to XAGUSD (Silver spot price). PSLV holds 0.361 Ozs of silver per share/unit.
Lines are drawn for P/NAV=1, and at 1 and 2% premium levels.
Since PSLV is a closed end fund, it may trade at a premium.
However, PSLV has a shelf offer allowing them to add shares/silver, which they have been doing.
By viewing the data in this form, you can guess at when they are adding shares (price drops due to the new supply)
If adding PSLV, chart can be used to find good times to buy (when shares are being added), and avoid paying high premiums.
The bottom of this chart is the ratio of PSLV shares traded to SLV shares traded, normalized by the ounces per share for each fund. I.e. it is the ratio of silver traded for each fund.
High volumes for PSLV correlated with a premium decrease on the top chart generally indicate shares/silver are being added
Growing volume indicates a growing market preference for PSLV over SLV
Chart is an EMA - the periods of the EMA can be changed to provide more or less smoothing
EMA is used rather than an MA to reduce lag
SILVER Will Fall From RESISTANCE! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
Silver is trading in a rising channel
And is now retesting the horizontal resistance
While forming a bear flag below the level
Thus,I am bearish biased locally
And I think the metal will retest the support below
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
Backing Up The TruckIt seems silver is heating up. Better shine up your bullion and get ready for some crypto-like swings. From a macro perspective it looks very similar to the bullish cupping pattern on many other charts. Starting with the Fibonacci extensions measured out from the past major bull run it looks like once again, price clings to the levels like a magnet.
During the 2003-2011 bull market the most notable swings range from 65 to over 100%. The pullbacks sometimes just as violent. The 50 week EMA looks like it was a relatively solid support level and will likely remain so in the future.
Silver has already made it's first 75% move from off the 50 week EMA and has pulled back to the 0.236 fib. It looks like that could be the floor for now. Another 75ish% move would put it up between the 0.5 and 0.618 level around $40.
It will likely take some time to get there with a lot of chop. There is still a risk of the DXY having a technical relief rally especially if new starts rolling out of 'stimulus' disappointments. This is how I've been playing it considering these risks...
After it broke $20 - accumulating bits and pieces on dips, building a core long term position. Trimming and booking some profits into the larger swings.
Fib targets to watch for now:
0.382 --- 31.50
0.5 --- 37.45
0.618 --- 43ish
Trading is risky, don't do it.
Long (6% of portfolio)
Silver bullion and coins
SLV, PSLV, CEF
Gold is set for a breakoutHello traders and investors! Let's get into the business, shall we! We can see gold ina downward wedge and also a triangulation pattern. This is bullish as once the lines converge, there is a high chance that the price of GOLD will raise significantly. The RSI is maybe gonna go into oversold territory, before bouncing back to the high 1800s- low 1900s. The macd converged again, which signals a bullish setup could play out. I think you should buy GOLD when it dips below the range in the RSI, signalling a buying opportunity or when the commodity triangulates. Warning! I am not a financial adviser and take this with a grain of salt. Happy trading!
SILJ - LONG!SILJ is currently moving in an ascending triangle. We believe a breakout is very close. Fundamentally, Silver is looking very strong so we believe the breakout will be to the upside (targets are shown in the chart). External factors are out of our control so if for some reason Silver starts breaking down, $13.50 would be the first large support. Other than that, we believe the odds are in our favor. Trade smart, stay safe. - HH
THE WEEK AHEAD: TWTR, TEVA, UA, UBER, ZNGA EARNINGS; MJ, SLVA little late to the game this week, but don't think I missed much.
EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS IN UNDERLYINGS WITH HIGHLY LIQUID OPTIONS:
TWTR (53/84),* announcing Tuesday after market close.
TEVA (16/63), announcing Wednesday before market open.
UA (42/68), announcing Wednesday before market open.
UBER (11/59), announcing Wednesday after market close.
ZNGA (11/63), announcing Wednesday after market close.
Pictured here is a plain Jane 16-delta short put in TWTR in the March monthly, paying 1.48 at the mid price as of today's close with a 46.52 break even/cost basis if assigned, 3.18% ROC at max as a function of notional risk. If you're of a nondirectional bent, consider the March 19th 49/70 short strangle paying 3.00 or the 44/49/70/75 iron condor, paying 1.30.
Due to the obvious skew here, I'd also consider a double double, but it would require going ten wide on the call side due to only 5 wides being available on the call side in March at the deltas I'd want to camp out, so it's less than ideal: 2 x 42/2 x 47/70/80, paying 2.42, delta/theta 1.41/4.55.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY:
MJ (74/89)
SLV (34/50)
ICLN (7/45)
JETS (7/43)
XRT (21/41)
EWZ (14/40)
XLE (18/38)
GDX (12/38)
BROAD MARKET RANKED BY 30-DAY IMPLIED VOLATILITY:
IWM (24/31)
QQQ (14/26)
SPY (10/21)
DIA (7/19)
EFA (13/18)
* -- The first metric is where 30-day lies relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks; the second, 30-day implied.