SLV
Swing Trade: Barrick Gold Corp.(GOLD) breakout setup 📈Hi fellows, just one of my today swingtrades:
Nice setup for breakout .
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 24,80
Stop Loss: 23,83
Profit target: 27.73
Time stop: 5 days
------------------------------------------------------------------
If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow.
Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
Silver - The Deal of a Century Silver can still go to $20-23 range but if that happens I am buying it with all of the AMMO that I have, even my wive's kitchen sink
Silver is EXTREMELY undervalued compared to any other asset out there. The biggest reason - JP Morgan is keeping it that way through a derivatives markets but I am sure those crooks are squeezing and accumulating. JPM stock will go up but Silver (when time comes) will absolutely leave Gold in the dust.
This could be the opportunity for everyone that missed Bitcoin rally. Pay VERY CLOSE ATTENTION to Silver. Do NOT miss it. Every dip should be bought like your life depends on it.
PS not a financial advice.
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY, MU EARNINGS; ICLN, SLV, XLE, IWM/RUTEARNINGS:
I've culled down all of next week's earnings announcements to options highly liquid underlyings where the 30-day is >50% and am left with two potential candidates for volatility contraction plays: BBBY (23/99/26.3%)* and MU (23/53/14.0%).
BBBY announces on Thursday before market open, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesdays session; MU, announces on Thursday after market close.
Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in the February cycle (49 days), which was paying 1.27 at the mid price as of Friday close with break evens wide of two times the expected move on the call side and slightly above the 2x on the put and delta/theta of -1.07/3.12. Naturally, you can see the call side skew here, with the similarly-delta'd short put 3.76 away from current price, but the call 7.24 away, so the underlying may merit a look at alternative plays that take advantage of this.
In contrast, the shorter duration January 15th 15/22.5 (14 days) was paying 1.02, with delta/theta metrics of .21/7.91, with the natural trade-off's being less room to be wrong, but a quicker resolution of the trade should you be right.
With MU, I'd look at a Plain Jane 2x expected move short strangle, which here would be the January 15th 68.5/85, paying 1.71 or the February 19th 62.5/90, paying 2.30.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS RANKED BY PERCENTAGE THE FEBRUARY 19TH AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYS AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
ICLN (9/51/15.0%)
SLV (33/48/13.6%)
XLE (23/41/11.4%)
XBI (27/39/11.2%)
EWZ (14/39/11.1%)
GDX (15/38/11.1%)
XME (14/38/10.7%)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (25/31/8.1%)
QQQ (19/27/7.1%)
SPY (15/22/5.4%)
EFA (20/21/5.2%)
BOND FUNDS:
TLT (16/18/4.4%) (Yield: 1.609%)
HYG (7/13/2.0%) (Yield: 4.917%)
EMB (4/7/2.0%) (Yield: 4.024%)
AGG (28/8/1.7%) (Yield: 2.252%)
* -- The first number is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where 30-day implied is relative to where it's been over the last 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied; and the third, what the February 19th at-the-money short straddle is paying as a function of stock price.
The wedge is ending SilverWe are approaching the crossroads of three trendlines, each of them having potentional impact on the price action of Silver. The price has bounced down from the upper blue trendline every time but once when it continued to test the resistance above it, but still retracing nicely below the trendline during the same day. The lower blue trendline has acted as support since late November. Together the blue trendlines form a rising wedge.
The brown trendline held the price above it all the way from early May until 28 October when the price finally broke below it. Since then the brown trendline has acted as resistance.
There is a high probability that the rising wedge breaks downwards. If however, the rising wedge of the blue trendlines breaks upwards, there is a potential new rising wedge formed with the brown trendline as upper boundary. In any case I am hoping that the price will break down to offer one more buying opportunity between 23.7 and 24.8.
Trade safe and take care.
Cheers Whoop
GC - Inverse head and shoulders on dailyTrump just officially signed the relief bill, so DXY dropped 12 cents. Metals - Gold futures up .85% and SLV futures was up 3.5%. GC has possible bullish inverse head and shoulders on daily. The GLD etf has bullish Feb 2021 put/call options ratio of .22. GOLD - Barrick gold, Warren Buffett has stake in that. The most common fibonacci retracement is .50 , which is $1928 for GC. GL!
THE WEEK AHEAD: SLV, GDX, XLE, IWM/RUTWith two shortened market weeks in a row for Christmas and New Year's, I probably won't be doing a ton here, but figured I'd do a post for how exchange-traded funds are looking in the waning weeks of 2020 ... .
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY PERCENTAGE THE AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE NEAREST 45 DAYS IS PAYING AS A FUNCTION OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (32/46/11.9%)
GDX (18/43/11.0%)
XLE (25/42/10.7%)
EWZ (14/40/10.0%)
XBI (21/36/9.1%)
KRE (18/36/9.3%)
I'm currently in small XLE, EWZ, KRE, and GLD positions, but will consider adding on weakness if any comes my way and the implied volatility sticks in there. One thing I don't want to do is to constantly follow high implied volatility, only to find myself grossly overweighted in energy, Brazil, and regional banks, however, so don't want to go too crazy adding in sectors that have been high in the list week in and week out over the past several months.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (22/29/6.9%)
QQQ (19/26/6.5%)
SPY (13/22/4.9%)
Pictured here is an SPX 50 wide set up to pay at least 10% of the width of the spread, or around 5.00/contract in the expiry nearest 45 days, which would be the February 5th weekly (currently 47 days until expiry). I would ordinarily opt for a higher implied volatility RUT setup, but there currently isn't a February 5th expiry available. You can certainly go with the January 29th (40 days) or the February 19th (59 days), with the preference being to put these on in a down day or days. Smaller account should consider going with SPY or QQQ spreads* with the appropriate combination of of contracts and spread widths commensurate with your account size.
BOND FUNDS:
TLT (1/15/3.5%) (1.609% Yield)
EMB (11/8/2.6%) (4.024% Yield)
HYG (7/10/2.1%) (4.917% Yield)
AGG (29/9/1.9%) (2.252% Yield)
In the IRA, I've been selling HYG short put here of 30 days' duration or so for a credit that is around the monthly dividend. With the December 18th short put having expired worthless, I'll look at adding some in the January 22nd cycle, where the 85 is paying .41 at the mid. As I've pointed out before, the premium in bond funds generally stinks, but I've been using this strategy as a way to deploy buying power that would otherwise be sitting there earning virtually nothing while I await down days or a higher volatility environment.
* -- Unfortunately, NDX isn't as liquid as either SPX or RUT, so I virtually never trade NDX spreads, opting instead for equivalent sizing in the QQQ's (e.g., 5 10-wides).
SLV - Patiently waitingSilver has not taken out last week's high despite a spirited rally today. I lightened up some on SLV last week anticipating a three week test of the low. With quad-witching on Friday, could be lots of volatility even extending to metals. Dollar continues to be super weak.
Could be wrong and SLV can continue to move higher but I play the patterns that I know and will patiently wait to see how we are going to close on Friday. Holding at or above 21.05 would be an intermediate-term entry point and onward to the 30s.
Last year, I had been anticipating a double bottom formation with prices taking out a top just below 20. Theory says that after breaking through that top (occurring around Aug 2016), prices would come back down to test that breakout point and move much higher. The March madness in the markets caused silver to make new lows. But ignoring the March craziness, I'm am sticking with that philosophy that we did make a double bottom, have come back to test and will then move to higher prices.
That being said, previous posts showed that I had expected still lower prices and they still might occur, actually testing that breakout level around 20. But as the Stochastic indicator is now heading upward, momentum is shifting. If we wind up closing below the 21 level on Friday, a little more patience will be in order. But I think we are close. This weekly setup is important to keep an eye on and if successful, is worth placing your bets on it.
GOLD 19 YEARS AGOThe GOLD to SPX ratio currently looks similar to 2001. Where were you 19 years ago? I know where I was and I was clearly not buying enough gold! Hindsight is clear.. or should I say 20/20? Seeing as history tends to rhyme, precious metals look like the better deal over the next decade- especially if you hold them in your possession.