$SLV - entered callsKeep a close eye on $SLV we will get some pretty explosive movements over 25.55.
Drop a follow for more ideas
SLV
GOLD/SILVER RATIO UPDATEThanks for viewing,
Initially posted in 2019.
I was a buyer of silver bullion since silver crossed the 80 mark. That included adding significantly to the holdings during the steep drop earlier in the year.
It hasn't always been a comfortable trade, but it has worked out rather well to date.
What I expect next is, despite continuing tail-winds for bullion, the G/S ratio will head back towards the 50 line of the RSI/MACD. So both gold and silver will continue to gain as the money printing / negative nominal and real yields on bonds / geopolitical uncertainty / record-breaking government deficits / shortages of physical bullion etc environment continues (I expect at least 4 out of these 5 conditions to continue for at least 5 - 10 years). Silver will continue to gain at about a 2:1 ratio to gold despite overall % gains slowing down somewhat for a time (smaller, less liquid market). So the G/S ratio will level-off for a while before head further down - I HOPE to 45 or below - at which point I will sell silver and purchase (more) gold.
Silver is a swing trade only as a way to gain more physical gold. I have actually bought my first silver ETF this week (my silver holdings are less than 1% ETF and gold is 0% ETF). Sorry I digress, I a strong aversion of bullion ETFs and would be very uncomfortable with any significant portion of my bullion allocation being in ETF form - if you don't hold it in your hand, it isn't yours). Gold isn't a trade and I would be unlikely to ever willingly part with it and will probably continue to add to holdings (even at much higher prices) for a very long time. Gold is unsurance, money par excellence, and the best way to hedge holding a weak base currency.
If it all works out I will end up with well over twice (by weight) the amount of gold (almost 3:1 for some purchases earlier in 2020), as compared to the amount of gold I could have bought at the time I purchased the silver. I'm just using silver as leverage against gold. Medium term, an $80+ price is on the cards (yes I know that sounds rather speculative right now) and at a 1/45 ratio that would imply a gold price of only $3,600 an ounce. Remember both BofA and Goldman expect a $3000+ gold price before the end of 2021, so my trade could realistically be completed in 2021-22 (I set a 2-5 year time horizon on this trade in 2019). On a bit longer 5+ year time horizon, $5000/oz gold is more likely than not at the moment. Of course, that implies a significantly weaker USD - but we are already starting that journey as well.
Protect those funds (and your bullion).
weekend silver peekjust one potential scenario to play out for silver..with subjectivity but let's see if this can play out.
GAAN Fan for silverNot nearly perfect but hopefully can service S/R from another angle. BTW, silver demonstrated good resilience in this tumultuous week and not down by too much, which is really a bullish sign IMO.
If you do performance comparison between silver and the Tech stocks, not many better performers out there.
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Missed the good divergence trade of the dayWhen you are looking at multiple screens it is hard to not miss out some very important structures. So elusive and ephemeral..wish I could have spotted this easy trade opportunity. someone chime in to shed some lights on how to not miss this kind of patterns? I don't currently have a way to alert myself of divergence.
SLV iShare I love trading SLV instead of XAG.
Simple reason, you get all the price action but you don't trade with leverage (at least on my trading platform I have that option)
I'm in for the long term with SLV. Might do a few small trades if the market signals are significant, but largely I'm HODLing.
Silver has been receiving lots of positive publicity lately wit Warren Buffet moving away from the USD. And being much more volatile than Gold, as well as cheaper, it is a great option to diversify and to be a part of the commodities market.
It is important to note that silver is used in electronics, batteries, nuclear reactors, touch screens etc. I don't see the demand decreasing for these items at this point.
Curious to hear what you trade, XAG, SLV, both?
Respectful and constructive feedback welcome.
Thanks, Ev
Silver (XAG) is trapped in a range with down bias short termBoth 1 hour and 2 hour stochastic show bearish divergence, with overarching 200 Hull EMA being resistance on the 3 and 4 hour charts. So the short term trend is a little bit tilted toward south.
Ichimoku Kijun line is showing some support, however. Pitchfork bottom line has been the resistance as well.
GLD Ascending TriangleI realize multiple people have identified the ascending triangle of GLD and stating it's bearish trend. Since the initial trend was bullish, why wouldn't it break to the upside? Congress is 99% going to pass another stimulus package which would be a positive catalyst for gold and silver. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
SLV XAGUSD Silver Rvalue TrendsTrends are trends ... don't fight them.
You trade by the second, scalp by the minute? Hold by the Day?
Then spot the trend the same way. Fit the R value, closer to "1" the better!
Then plan your price and watch the support resistance moves just fall in line to trace the trend again.
This plan had Rsquared above 0.90 for 21 days. Both the price pattern in Renko's and the Candles are valid. They show two sides of the same moves.
I used SD of 2.5 and then channels for the day were very clear.
Still see strong uptrends with sideways consolidations.
SLV XAGUSD
!Copper (+10.35%) [Hold] for Sep 20'I'm remaining long from this signal given on the 6th of last month. Currently floating +10.35% from this position-- un-marginalized. The margin account used for this trade risked 2% for a +21.034%% current floating gain on this long. Stoploss has been and is remaining just above entry.
Gold (+12.8%) & Silver (+59.41%); [Hold]I remain long both of these CFD's since the original signal given for both linked below.
THE WEEK AHEAD: M, CLDR, CRWD EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, QQQTHE WEEK AHEAD:
EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS:
M (41/103/September 18.7%): Announces Wednesday before market open.
Potential Plays:
September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 1.30 as of Friday close, .33 at 25% max.
September 18th 5/7/7/9 iron fly, paying 1.07 as of Friday close, .27 at 25% max.
Look to take profit at 25% max.
CLDR (68/116/September 20.1%): Announces Wednesday after market close.
Potential Plays:
September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 2.60 as of Friday close, .65 at 25% max.
September 18th 9/13/13/17 iron fly, paying 2.13 as of Friday close, .53 at 25% max.
Look to take profit at 25% max.
CRWD (32/74/September 15.0%): Announces Wednesday after market close.
Potential Plays:
September 18th 101/145 short strangle, paying 4.03 as of Friday close, 2.01 at 50% max.
September 18th 100/105/140/145. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to put on a setup that pays at least one-third the width of the wings in credit.
Comments: Not a ton is shaking next week for options liquid underlyings, but here are what appear to me to be the best candidates for volatility contraction plays. Naturally, I'm just preliminarily pricing these out to see whether they're potentially worthwhile, and actual strikes are likely to change somewhat running into earnings as price moves.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED/OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE:
SLV (45/56/15.2%)
XLE (24/39/11.2%)
GDX (22/47/13.3%)
GDXJ (21/58/15.7%)
EWZ (17/44/12.3%)
XOP (13/50/14.1%)
GDXJ is paying the most as a function of stock price (15.7%), followed by SLV (15.2%), XOP (14.1%), and GDX (13.3%).
WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING:
The GDXJ October 16th 15/75 short strangle: 2.15, 3.6% as a function of stock price,
The SLV October 16th 22/32 short strangle: .97, 3.6% as a function of stock price.
The XOP October 16th 45/63 short strangle: 1.84, 3.5% as a function of stock price.
The GDX October 16th 38/47 short strangle: .84, 2.0% as a function of stock price.
Comments: I've already got a miners play on, so am likely to avoid getting into another closely correlated underlying here.
BROAD MARKET:
QQQ (29/32/8.8%)
IWM (22/28/7.6%)
EFA (17/20/5.6%)
SPY (12/22/5.3%)
WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING:
The QQQ October 16th 257/320 short strangle is paying 6.51, 2.2% as a function of stock price.
The IWM October 16th 140/170 short strangle, 2.93, 1.9%.
The EFA October 16th 60/69 short strangle, .93, 1.4%.
The SPY October 16th 317/391 short strangle, 4.95, 1.4%.
Comments: In the IRA, I've been mechanically selling 45 days 'til expiry puts at the two times expected move strike (basically, the 16 delta) and will pretty much continue to do so until 30-day drops below 20%. There's always hesitancy to continue to do this at successive all-time-highs, and, yes, it is likely I will be assigned shares at some point in a >2 times expected move sell-off, after which I'll proceed to cover. That being said, I've got an inordinate amount of undeployed buying power after all the acquisitional short put ladders I put on in the sell-off have come off; I'd rather take some risk here to earn "something," all while keeping a reasonable amount of dry powder free to take advantage if we get another one of those bodice rippers we had in mid-March. This week, I'll follow the implied volatility, and as of Friday close, that was in the QQQ's.
DIVIDEND EARNERS:
XLU (21/23/7.1%)
EWA (20/24/7.0%)
TLT (18/19/4.8%)
EFA (17/20/5.6%)
EWZ (17/44/12.3%)
IYR (17/24/6.5%)
HYG (17/14/2.8%)
SPY (16/22/5.3%)
EMB (11/11/2.7%)
The Brazilian exchange-traded fund leads the pack for the umpteenth week in a row, with XLU and EWA in distant second and third places. I'm fine with continuing to hit EWZ via acquisitional short put over and over again if that's where the implied volatility leads, but, yes, it's kind of getting old.
For what it's worth: The 2 times expected move EWZ October 16th 28 short put is paying .36 per contract as of Friday close (1.2% as a function of stock price).
Key: The first number in parentheses is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price that the specified monthly expiry at-the-money short straddle is paying.
SLV and silver continue weekly bullish trendSLV needed to close above the $24.90 higher low of last week today to continue i's bullish trend on the weekly chart. Nothing fancy here, simple upward bullish trend. Yesterday Feds promised inflation which is the ultimate bull signal for precious metals, when considering phys demand remains very high and supply is very low in the US, falling dollar, and China and other countries starting to buy electronics again, all signs point to continued rise with expected small pullbacks due to bank manipulation of the COMEX/ETF.
I suspect silver, SLV and most mining stocks will out perform gold here on out since it is still extremely undervalued. As inflation rises, silver, the poor man's gold will have continued retail interest in physical as well as ETF's
See my other charts for support and resistance levels, Fib levels Fed policies, and other analysis...I have been adding on every pull back and now just hanging on for the the ride up to $50 with $45 Jan calls. Don't miss the boat.
