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SLV

Silver hit target on time! Next projected target at 30.The target previously posted hit target spot on time ! So what’s next? I would hazard a projection that despite the parabolic run, it still might have some legs to go, but am expecting the next target area (green ellipse with red outline) to be volatile. Not expecting a close above 30.30 though... it is just over stretched. IF silver still continues, the;we are in for some serious s hitting the fan... I don’t know what it would be, next week tells more! Btw, for study sake, I have put in the bright green arrows for the typical best entry points. Stay safe....
COMEX:SI1!
by Auguraltrader
THE WEEK AHEAD: LYFT, UAL, MGM, DAL, CNX, SLV, GDXJEARNINGS: LYFT (20/82/19.8%) announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session if you want to play the volatility contraction. Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/38 short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the September monthly. Paying 1.26 as of Friday close, it has 27.74/39.26 break evens, which are wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, but somewhat short of 2 times on the put side due to skew; delta/theta .25/3.58. You'll have to go somewhat tighter (the 25 delta) to get one-third the width out of an iron condor, with the 27/30/37/40 iron condor paying .97; 29.03/37.97 break evens, which are at the expected move on both sides; delta/theta 2/1.31. I've stuck on an UBER line just to show how LYFT's competitor did with its earnings in the coronavirus environment ... . CSCO (28/36/8.4%) also announces, but has less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play. EARNINGS AFTERGLOW: There are a number of underlyings with earnings in the rear view that still have sufficient implied to potentially make them worthwhile just as pure premium selling plays. Here are a number of them, ranked by the percentage that the September at-the-money short straddle is paying relative to stock price and screened for those paying greater than 15%: UAL: 20.8% MGM: 17.7% DAL: 17.7% CNX: 17.6% WYNN: 16.9% PINS: 16.1% ROKU: 16.0% BYND: 15.8% SNAP: 15.7% BA: 15.3% SQ: 15.2% AMD: 15.1% LUV: 15.1% I may pick one or more of these if I have nothing better to do, keeping in mind correlations here (i.e., UAL, DAL, and LUV are all airlines; BA is airline-related). EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY SEPTEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE/STOCK PRICE RATIO AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED: SLV (70/81/19.9%) GDXJ (24/62/15.6%) GDX (24/43/12.8%) XOP (11/48/12.7%) EWZ (18/43/11.2%) Here, I've screened out those paying <10%. I'm in an August GDXJ play, but may re-up with a SLV, even though there is going to be some correlation with miners. The September 18th 20 delta 22/36 short strangle was paying 1.45 as of Friday close, with the 25 delta 20/23/33.5/36 iron condor paying .99. There is some massive call side skew to potentially accommodate here, so could see going "double double" (double the contracts on the put side, but double the width on the call). Two Examples: September 18th 2 x 18/2 x 20.5/33/38 "double double" iron condor, paying .98 or September 18th 2 x 15.5/2 x 25.5/33.5/44 "double double", paying 1.30, the latter of which approaches the metrics of the naked short strangle. BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: Most of the fun has bled out ... : IWM (25/30/7.3%) QQQ (25/28/7.2%) EFA (17/21/4.8%) SPY (15/22/5.1%)
NYSE:UBER
by NaughtyPines
3
Gold - Fibonacci Cheat SheetGold played out exactly as planned and squeezed up to the 0.618 Fib Extension around $2,070 taking out all the short sellers with little to no resistance. Although I am still long GLD, GDX, SLV, I've closed out my Futures positions for $2,154.50 profit and will wait for a better swing trade setup (entries/exits linked below). Setups: 1. Continue squeezing up from here. Buy on daily close above 0.618 fib @ $2,070. 2. Chop sideways between $2,000 and $2,070 before moving up. 3. Dip lower and find support. Lot's of chop before a swing higher.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by ryan-snk
SILVER IS SOARING - SLVSLV has been on a tear since the March lows, rallying over 80% and it's still going. Eventually we'll see a breather as volume begins to decrease and bulls take some profits, but at the moment the bullish trend is still going strong. If you're looking to play this one, I would wait for any dips you can get, buy in, tight stop loss (around 2%), and let it ride. Secure profits as you can and don't get greedy. Remember the trend is your friend until proven otherwise. Give us a follow and shoot us a Like for more analysis updates. Cheers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
AMEX:SLVLong
by MannyLo
THE WEEK AHEAD: BYND, ROKU, SQ, ETSY, UBER EARNINGS; GDXJ, SLVEARNINGS: There's a bunch, but here are the ones that interest me most for volatility contraction plays: BYND (46/87/17.2%)*, announcing Tuesday after market close. ROKU (40/84/16.6%), announcing Wednesday after market close. SQ (40/74/13.4%), announcing Wednesday after market close. ETSY (38/74/14.8%), announcing Wednesday after market close. UBER (15/73/11.9%), announcing Thursday after market close. Pictured here is a directionally neutral iron condor in BYND in the September cycle with the shorts camped out at the 21 delta strikes. A 3.26 credit as of Friday's close, it's paying nearly one-third the width of the wings. Naturally, you can go with the August monthly, but this is one that's known to be a mover, so I'd opt to go longer duration for more room to be wrong. For those who prefer naked: the September 18th 106/165 was paying 8.55 at the mid price as of Friday's close, with the August 21st 105/160 (18 delta) paying 5.45. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35%, ORDERED BY RANK, AND SHOWING SEPTEMBER SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (46/58/15.0%) XLE (26/40/11.5%) GDXJ (22/57/16.0%) GDX (22/46/13.0%) EWZ (20/46/12.4%) XOP (13/53/14.6%) From a buck banging perspective, it's GDXJ (16.0%), followed by SLV (15.0%), and XOP (14.6%) for premium selling. I've already got GDXJ and SLV plays on, so may consider something in XOP if I'm desperate to add to my theta pile. BROAD MARKET: IWM (29/34/9.1%) QQQ (22/27/7.5% EFA (21/23/6.0%) SPY (19/23/6.2%) The volatility was nice ... while it lasted. I may switch over to IWM put selling in the IRA in lieu of SPY given that RUT is where the volatility is at relative to the others. The 16 delta strike nearest 45 days until expiry would be the September 18th 130, paying 2.05. IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS: XLU (23/20/5.6%) (3.19% yield) IYR (22/28/7.2%) (3.27% yield) EWA (22/30/8.4%) (3.72% yield) EWZ (20/46/12.4%) (3.17% yield) SPY (19/23/6.2%) (1.75% yield) TLT (17/17/4.3%) (1.64% yield) HYG (15/15/3.0%) (5.00% yield) EMB (11/11/2.9%) (4.22% yield) EWZ (12.4%), followed by EWA (8.4%), then IYR (7.2%). Getting kind of tired of laddering out EWZ, but you go where the volatility's at. * -- For earnings, the August 21st at the money short straddle is used for determining the short straddle/stock price percentage; for everything else, I'm using September.
NASDAQ:BYND
by NaughtyPines
16
Case for a weak US Dollar Four factors that typically influence the dollar’s direction have shifted from bullish to bearish since the onset of the coronavirus crisis: 1) FOMC has shifted to a zero-rate policy • US interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are negative • Growth expectations have slowed while inflation expectations have risen… sending Real Interest Rates down • Fed sharply increased access to U.S. dollars through its swap facilities with other central banks, increasing the supply of dollars in the global economy and enabling greater access to dollars to a wide set of economies at lower cost. 2) US Growth likely will underperform other major economies due to COVID a. The slow U.S. response to the coronavirus crisis has altered expectations about economic growth relative to major country peers. Outbreaks in Europe and China appear to have peaked, while in the U.S. cases are still rising. Consequently, the U.S. economic recovery is likely to take longer, with higher unemployment and weaker consumer spending. b. The European Union’s recovery fund marks a step toward greater mutualization of debt (combination of debt across Europe Union)—a factor that can reduce the perception of risk around the euro currency. c. Recent purchasing managers index (PMI) data suggest that the U.S. economic rebound is leveling off while growth is rising in most other regions. 3) Political uncertainty has risen a. Rising tensions between the U.S. and China b. Upcoming presidential election, make the outlook for the U.S. less certain. With less clarity about the direction of policy or its implications for the economy and regulations, foreign investors may begin to shy away from U.S. investments. c. While the US dollar is still a safe-haven currency in times of global turmoil, in the absence of a crisis, the outlook for other countries looks more predictable. 4) Increasing US budget deficit will need to be financed with foreign capital a. Historically, a rising budget deficit has often been a leading indicator of dollar weakness. b. Because the U.S. is a net debtor nation, a rising budget deficit needs to be financed with foreign investment.
AMEX:UUPShort
by dorfmanmaster