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$DXY and Inflation$DXY, the U.S. Dollar Currency Index has been steadily declining for some time now. Based on a chart analysis, we can see a double-top formation followed by a price consolidation that ultimately led to a breakdown once closing under a support trend line. After a fall of about 4%, an attempt was made to retrace. After a pullback, a second attempt was made, but that uptrend was much weaker, leading to the current downtrend. (Also noteworthy is the death cross of the 50SMA below the 200SMA which was followed by a strong bearish candle the next day). As the USD's value falls, we are getting closer to inflation, however it is approaching a support line. Additionally, GLD and SLV, the Gold and Silver ETFs have been on a strong bull run lately. While DXY may look to reverse back into a stronger value area, Silver and Gold, which are strong fallbacks when the value of the USD decreases, may look to pair the DXY reversal with an inverse price action.
TVC:DXY
by nmatto
2
Like Gold, Silver May Be Headed LowerI'm a little agnostic on the metals, because on the one hand, unprecedented central bank interventions should lead to inflation, and these are the two most accessible and obvious hedges against that. On the other hand, I believe that the deflationary forces trying to assert themselves in the world were abruptly arrested by those very interventions. So, do we go up because of inflation or down because of deflation? I tend to lean toward further deflation. Now, my gold chart, which I have posted several times, still stands: I see a rising wedge with weakening buying. Likewise, with silver, I see a similar structure, though on a shorter time-frame than gold. Interestingly with silver, the RSI bearish divergence is quite sharp between the last two recent daily highs at 18.38 and 18.44. While eking out a new high in price on the first of July, it came nowhere near printing a higher high on the RSI. That said, keep an eye on it. If it shoots to the moon, that divergence can be reversed into convergence. But I believe it would take a very large move to do so.
TVC:SILVERShort
by CHTradingGroup
3
Silver Attempting $18/oz Support After BreakoutAfter trending mostly below $18/oz for nearly two months silver has recently broken above that resistance level and is currently testing $18/oz as support. If price can manage to hold above $18/oz and see a continued push higher then $19 will be the next level to watch for resistance. Should price fall back within the $17-$18/oz range then $17 will be the main level to watch for potential price support based on recent history. Below $17/oz would indicate the potential for a dip back to $16/oz. The Relative Strength Index(RSI) shows the green RSI line holding just above the 50 level. 50 represents the midway point in the total RSI range(0-100) and in general an RSI reading above 50 indicates bullish short-term price momentum while an RSI reading below 50 indicates bearish short-term price momentum. The purple line indicates intermediate-term price momentum, which is also above the 50 level. In general, during an uptrend in price you want to see the green RSI line rising above the purple signal line and for both lines to be above 50. If both lines continue to hold at 50 and move higher it would indicate that short-term and intermediate-term momentum is shifting bullish. If both lines cross below the 50 level it would indicate a potential shift to bearish price momentum. The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows the green PPO line overlapping its purple signal line which indicates a loss in price momentum since the green line crossed down into the purple line. In an uptrend in price you want to see the green PPO line rising above the purple signal line, and for both lines to be above the 0 level, or centerline, as an indication of bullish price momentum. Both lines trending down and below the 0 level would be an indication of bearish price momentum. For now the PPO is showing a drop in short-term momentum while remaining bullish overall since both the green and purple lines remain above the 0 level. The Average Directional Movement Index(ADX) show the green directional line overlapping the purple directional line which indicates a pullback in the short-term uptrend in price. When the green line is above the purple line it indicates an overall bullish trend behind price, while a purple line above green indicates an overall bearish trend behind price. The histogram in the background indicates trend strength. When the histogram is rising the dominant trend is increasing in strength, when the histogram is declining it indicates that the dominant trend is decreasing in strength. Overall silver looks good for more gains going forward this year, especially if gold continues to move higher. Silver has severely underperformed gold in the rally this year as gold is back to 2011 levels up in the $1,800/oz range. If silver had kept up and went back to its 2011 levels price would be above $34-$40/oz today. Silver seems cheap here, as do mining stocks, if price begins to catch up to gold in gains. My currently held gold and silver mining stocks/ETF’s: GDX, GDXJ, AG, GPL, KGC, HL, NGD, MUX, EXK, CDE.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by PrepForProfit