SLV to retrace partial advance as dollar bouncesLooking for SLV to give back some of its gains as it does some backing and filling. Think the dollar bounces here offering a challenging environment for precious metals.
SLV
SLV OutlookJust a look at where it's been, and where it can go based on where it's been.
Entering one of the oldest seasons we have; realization and dependence on basic things like service and what we use the most. Typically, materials like rocks bring value, cause governments and government made cash doesn't. This season will be different than all others.
What has held value the most through all of known time?
Beliefs and opinions.
So be aware of what beliefs and opinions others hold, and have held through all of time. Who knows, someone else is likely to be more convicted of their beliefs than you , and to such an extent to commit their life to it.
Might be good to know what their beliefs are based on, regardless if you agree or not.
Silver is getting extended!Silver is looking like a high probable short opportunity.
its already very extended and overbought, but it may want to tag or pierce the orange trendline.
Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels ScalpSilver's price action has been curious, as it started to drop suddenly right at the beginning of February. Lost 5% in a day, in fact.
Gold took a little bit longer to move, and notably dumped on a much smaller magnitude.
I have an open call from mid-January that gold is likely to correct, and it appears to be coming to fruition:
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of Rationality
The thesis being that the Nasdaq and tech will moon...
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for Permabears
And as it does, metals will dump, and once the stock market is exhausted then the pump cycle will rotate back into metals, and things will really go.
All that being said, I believe that based on Silver's price action that it's dumped for the purpose of short trapping and liquidating longs and is about to make another move up before silver really starts to head down.
A warning on China
Since January 10, the Chinese Communist Party has claimed that there has been 0.00 new Wuhan Pneumonia/COVID-19 cases. This comes after news that the country was absolutely sacked by the pandemic after Xi Jinping threw away the disastrous COVID-Zero social credit lockdown blunder. The after effects were so significant that countries like South Korea were suddenly blanketed in difficult-to-explain smog , which may very well have come from mainland cremation furnaces being on full blast.
What this tells you is that at any moment, any bullish impulse in markets-at-large can be interrupted by big time pandemic problems, up to and including the USSR-style fall of the CCP. So you have to be careful, and you have to be prepared.
Mainstream media is not going to alert you that there's any problems with their darling erstwhile model of the world they want to create: the Chinese Communist Party. They'll leave you ignorant until the disaster is sprung on you like a cantilever and you'll be the one who suffers the regrets.
If you have heavy long positions you should really hedge with 60+ day 10% OTM puts on the indexes/index ETFs.
The call
To understand silver, we have to look at the long term price action.
Monthly
We're dealing with a _very_ wide dealing range between $30 and $12~. '22's low of the year was only $17.50, and any very very bearish scenario below that could see as low as $13.
I have reservations that we see $13. I think that in reality a bear impulse on silver might only go as low as $15, and not for very long.
On weekly bars, the present situation is more obvious.
Weekly
We're dealing with a 10+% pullback with both a trendline and the $25 algorithmic/psychological operation figure that went untouched. Not only did $25 go untouched, but they set a double top there before the curiously-timed dump that gold did not follow.
Thus, I believe that what the market makers have set up to do is to raid the $25.50 level, perhaps in the period around Tuesday's CPI and into the end of February, before silver retreats back towards $18.
The iShares Silver Trust $SLV likewise set a double top, failing to raid the previous daily high by 2 cents.
All the stars are aligning, so to speak, and makes a fine trade long over $25 in anticipation of a Lyft-style fakey trendline breakout:
LYFT - Buy the Dip, Ride the Lift
$22 --> $25.5 is close enough to 15% and in a time horizon that should manifest before February is out.
This play will also knock out a ton of short sellers, while bringing in a lot of momentum traders who like to buy highs.
The MMs may also use this to drag in the fools who think that the USD is done and that their bullion will reign supreme, despite us living in an era when every central bank wants to install its own digital currency and its own CCP-style social credit system.
And thus, if this pump does manifest, you have to mind your greed. Over $25 is a sell and you want to see big manipulation to the downside, because when this Party is very close to being finished, $50+ silver is legitimately coming.
Silver Breakout
It seems like the US Dollar Index has peaked (as of now) at 108 which pushed gold and silver down drastically. But we could be on the verge of a massive breakout in silver, back up above $25 an ounce as well as gold back above $1900.
You could start a position now incase silver continues upward or wait for DXY to fall below 100, but by then, you may miss a significant rally in silver.
SLV ETF is screaming with a BUY signalSilver may outperform gold for the short term as SLV is screaming for attention. It just had a recent golden cross along with a by-signal measured by Aroon up. So don't miss out on this one at all! I'm also testing the same theory with other highly liquid ETFs as well for tomorrow's trading day.
💿 iShares Silver Trust | Aims $26, $33 and $44iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is developing a strong bullish bias based on this long-term, monthly, chart.
First, Silver peaked in April 2011 (left side of the chart).
This is followed by a strong bear market that hit a low in December 2015.
This low is tested again March 2020 thanks to Covid.
The whole period from late 2015 to early 2020 can be considered a consolidation phase.
After the March 2020 low, which set the lowest price since February 2009, a new bullish wave develops.
With a higher low set in September 2022 and now strong bullish action/signals developing, Silver is aiming at a higher high.
The targets based on Fib. proportions together with EW theory go as follow:
1) $23.4
2) $29.6
3) $33.3
4) $43.8
This setup is invalidated with a monthly close below $13.0.
This is super-long-term.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
30 DAY SILVER SHORTI'm very bullish about silver moving forward. I firmly believe that at least 75% of your long holdings should be in physical silver in your own custody. 25% can be in paper contracts, stocks or derivatives. I still think there are good trades to be made on the short side, at least for the time being, but always use a stop loss.
AW Silver Long Trade Idea - Based On The Silver and Gold Video..Just another updated long trade idea now that we have confirmation.
I will link the Silver and Gold Video down below so you can see what this idea is based on.
Trade Parameters:
ENTRY: At Market.
STOP: $19,894.
TARGET: $46
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
$SLV SILVER RUSH 2030long term down trend line may be setting up for a break
measured move could send silver to $100 or more
could take many years to play out
AW Silver Long Trade Idea - Based On The Silver and Gold Video..This long trade idea is based on the latest video - THE SILVER & GOLD VIDEO linked below in related ideas.
Silver has printed some very clear waves over the last few years and is getting ready for a nice move up.
I do not believe Silver will make a new all-time-high in this run up, so shorting at the highs is encouraged.
Only trade these moves if you understand the waves especially AriasWave because that is what this idea is based on.
I created AriasWave methodology for this specific reason, so that you know what comes next.
Confirmation for this move up will come in at break of 21.30.
ENTRY: 21.30 (Or at Market)
STOP: 18.00 (Critical Support) OR The Low Once 21.30 is surpassed.
TARGET: $46.00
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
AW Analysis - THE SILVER AND GOLD VIDEO...In this video I explain exactly what I believe is going on in the grand scheme of things.
Everything you have been told about precious metals is a lie.
Believe it or not, the waves are going to do what the waves will do.
I believe that looking at precious metals as a safe haven asset is a fool's game.
Humans will always come up with different reasons why it's a good idea to do anything.
You could convince young traders that a warship is their mother.
Check it out, let me know what you think.
Learn the waves, it will be the best thing you ever did for your trading abilities.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
SILVER Bounce from Support?!Here we are looking at SILVER on the Weekly TF…
As you can see, SILVER has been trading within a macro symmetrical triangle structure, which has clear and established support and resistance lines.
Silver has been trading within this structure since March of 2020 (COVID—19 Crash). Since then, it has tested descending resistance 5 times on the weekly, and ascending support 3 times (so far).
Currently, SILVER is on its way to that support, and I expect it to reach that line soon (relative to the weekly TF candles).
While it’s still too early to definitively say, I do believe that SILVER will bounce from support, and make another run to resistance in another attempt to breakout to the upside.
What do you think SILVER will do next? Let me know in the comments!
Cheers!
Silver and the MinersAll in the video, I believe we're in a prime area to buy both Silver and the silver miners for a longer term hold.
Good luck!
Have Gold and Silver bottomed? What do charts tell us?Gold has had a very healthy pullback into a critical zone. Last year it had a significant move down, took out all the lows around 1700, and bounced hard. Despite interest rates and the US Dollar being much higher than 1-2 years ago, Gold has held extremely well.
After its rally since its November bottom, it finally pulled back and got into crucial support. To me, it's critical support because that's where the market topped before the last leg down, and a level around which it chopped for a while before breaking out at the beginning of the year. These levels are also crucial because they acted as resistance in 2011-2012, while this is an area the market traded at for a long time.
Gold went in a relatively short period, from oversold, to overbought to back into a fair price (all on the weekly chart timeframe). It looks like it will aim for the 2100 level to sweep the double top that formed right after the Russian invasion, as the current structure doesn't look bearish. It feels pretty unlikely that we will get prices lower than 1700 before we take out the highs first. I would consider a close below 1700 a significantly bearish signal, but until then, I see the market as bullish. As it is now at the yearly pivot, it might have one last dip to fill some of the gaps lower and then start aiming for all the higher gaps, along with the double top, as such blatant double tops tend to be broken.
Silver seems to be in a somewhat similar position. Silver has a double top created much more recently and has significant gaps to the upside. In my previous ideas, I discussed Silver going up to 24 and topping around that level. My longs worked, but I never shorted, and I am okay that I didn't because it took the trade a long time to work. Timing in trading matters, and you can't be in a short trade like this for too long.
In this case, the market bottomed at massive support, bounced, had a healthy correction, and is now getting closer to support again. The chart is somewhat weird, but I doubt we will see much lower prices before seeing new highs. Both for Gold and Silver, I thought lower prices were possible, but until I see a liquidity crisis begin, I can't call for much lower prices. Both formed excellent bases, especially Silver.
Gold to 1300-1400 and Silver to 14-16$ before going higher isn't impossible. However, given what's happening with inflation and the financial system, I doubt it will happen. China and Russia are buying Gold; long-term inflation won't get under control, and the risk of a significant financial crisis is looming. I would say that silver doesn't seem to be in a good situation, mainly due to its industrial demand being heavily impacted and the fact that central banks would only buy gold, not silver.
So what's the bull case here for gold and silver? 1. Liquidity cycle turned up. Dollar and rates will come down while money will keep flowing. 2. Tensions among countries leading countries/investors to neutral alternatives. 3. Hedges in case of escalating crises of all sorts.
It's possible that due to all the material and labor shortages, investing in stocks isn't ideal. Investing in commodities like Copper might be a better alternative, given their importance in a rapidly changing global economy. Gold and Silver might do very well in an environment of many negative changes but might not outperform some commodities that face major shortages. Below we can see the nice bounce of Copper off support and its clean reclaim of the Yearly pivot. For example, Copper could be one of the great beneficiaries of the transition to the green economy and the Chinese reopening.
Long SLV. Silver to shine as dollar bounce wanes. The dollar is in a secular downtrend and after a brief bounce back which we played on the long side, the DXY is looking toppy and should continue to rollover in the intermediate term. Besides stocks, a beneficiary of a weaker dollar are the precious metals. I like long SLV as a high beta trade and expect SLV to continue to bounce higher in the coming weeks.
SILVER Looking to Bounce Here we are looking at Daily on the Daily TF…
We’ll keep this idea brief as it’s pretty simple in its nature. SILVER has seemingly began to bounce from its local support that it formed back in November of 2022. If SILVER can hold this support and continue bounce from here, we can expect further upside to follow…
I will continue to update this chart as there are relevant developments for it.
Let me know what you think SILVER is going to do next in the comments!
Cheers!!
XAGXAU - Silver AUD - Bullish flag and pole formation.XAGXAU - Silver AUD - Bullish flag and pole formation.
Likely, to follows Gold's lead higher.
Grand Silver SupercycleI present the Grand Silver Supercycle. Silver has followed Elliott Wave Theory nicely through the years. The price hit a century low during The Great Depression, beginning what I believe to be the first wave of a supercycle. There is a clear five wave pattern up from this low, peaking in 1980. This is supercycle wave 1. Then, we see a five wave corrective pattern down, bottoming out in the early 90s. Alternatively, a three wave ABC pattern could be drawn. This is where supercycle wave 3 begins. Wave 3 is typically much more prominent than wave 1 in Elliott Wave Theory. For this reason, it makes sense that the next five wave pattern ending in 2011 is only the first subwave of supercycle wave 3. The second subwave corrected to the 2020 low, and we are currently on the third subwave. Within this subwave, we could either be starting a third wave (as shown in the chart) or still be on the corrective second wave. I believe the former is much more likely due to fundamentals.
Price targets within the current subwave were estimated as follows:
wave 3 length = 1.618 X wave 1
wave 3 target = $48
wave 4 length = 38.2% retracement of wave 3
wave 5 length = 1.618 X (wave 3 end - wave 1 start)
I'm more confident on wave 3 ending near $48 than I am of wave 5 ending near $95. There is strong resistance at $50, which coincides with the Elliott target zone. Wave 5 length can vary significantly. For silver at least, fifth waves have traditionally been long ones.
Fundamentals
Elliott Wave Theory is only a tool. It needs to be backed up by fundamentals when forecasting on long time frames. Silver is undervalued due to many years of supply outstripping demand, creating cheap prices. That is in the early stages of changing as now demand outpaces supply. Global silver demand was expected to hit an all time high of 1.21 billion ounces in 2022 (www.silverinstitute.org). This is largely due to increases in demand in both industry (Green Revolution) and personal investment (stackers hedging against inflation). Silver reserves currently stand at 530,000 metric tons (www.statista.com). The current demand is 38,000 metric tons per year. A simple calculation shows existing reserves could be depleted in 14 years. However, this calculation doesn't take into account new discoveries and recycling, which have so far kept pace with demand. Estimates of time to depletion of reserves vary wildly from a couple decades to a few centuries. At the moment, the prime driver of price (in addition to inflation) will be the deficit, not depletion of reserves.
Inflation is a totally different animal that is much harder to forecast long term due to its close relationship to government and Federal Reserve policy. It is more likely that when presented the choice, our leaders choose high inflation over debt default and depression. How this all is going to play out is anyone's guess. It seems for now our leaders are trying to kick the can down the road for as long as possible. If hyperinflation hits, the silver price will reach extraordinary heights.
Gold is about to breakout above $2k - Here we goThe Fed and US economic data will likely prompt s big move in Gold/Silver over the next 36+ months.
My read on the data is that we are starting a price cycle that is similar to 2002~2005 again.
Early bullish trending throughout 2002~05 prompted a massive 500% rally in Gold - reaching a peak in 2011.
If that happens again from the $1700 support level, we may see Gold reach levels above $11,000 by 2027~28.
This is NOT the same market condition as 2019~2022.
Follow my research
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out.
Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985.
I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase.
If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+.
Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase..
A. $481
B. $525
C. $566
D. $700
As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28.
Hang tight, this is just getting started.
Follow my research.
