SLW- Bump & Run formation Long from $20 to $25SLW forming a bump & run formation. Moneyflow is improving.If it can hold the support around $19.77 & breaks about it can easily go to next resistance around $25
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of Resistance around $20
Exit Target Criteria- $25 & higher
Stop Loss Criteria- $19.77
You can check detailed analysis on SLW in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
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Time Span- 58:00"
Trade Status: Pending
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SLW
XAUUSD: Potential for uptrend continuation, target pendingThere is one weekly target that hasn't been hit yet, and I suspect we might hit it very soon, so I'm willing to risk taking a long position here, with 23 point downside risk.
Let's see if we can attain the weekly 'Time at mode' target before our stop loss gets hit. You can risk between 0.5 and 1% on this trade, and then look to add as it moves in profit, further confirming the thesis.
If we get stopped, we might get a new chance to long next week. I'll update the chart as we move forward.
Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com
If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
NOTABLE HIGH IV STOCKS WITH IV > 50%1. P, 79%
2. FCX, 76%
3. X, 75%
4. TWTR, 67%
5. STX, 57%
6. ABX, 56%
7. NFLX, 56%
8 GG, 53%
9. SLW, 52%
Naturally, we are coming into earnings season here, so there's a reason that some of these have high IV here (e.g., NFLX announces in a week and a half). Ordinarily, I like IV to be >50% and IVR (current IV's level relative to where it's been for the past 52 weeks to be high, too), but I may not find a great deal of 70%+ IVR plays here with broad market volatility so low (VIX finished the week below 15).
Neverthless, it may be worthwhile to churn through this small list for premium selling plays (iron condors, short strangles, short straddes), assuming there's sufficient time before earnings to sneak a play in. Otherwise, it's probably best just to wait to do the standard volatility contraction play surrounding earnings ... .
Silver Likely to See a Pullback Near-TermSilver has seen an unexpected rally to most and continues to show strength as holdings of silver-backed ETFs reach all-time highs. Since posting "Potential Inflection in SLV: Price Action and Options," (under CommoditiesTrader) SLV is up almost 22 percent.
However, near-term there will be a correction to work off the overbought conditions.
The RSI was quite elevated at 77, while the z-score hit a near-term high of 2.9
The +/-DMI is showing that price action still remains positive but the ADX is beginning to tick lower.
The stochastic indicator is currently over bought at 87.51/93.26
Of course, precious metals will move with headlines. Given the sharp two-day decline, the SLV looks promising between $15.90 and $15.60. If traders sell through the secondary uptrend near $15.60, we could see further selling to $15.
It's important to remember the risk is dynamic. Traders will flock to the safe-haven aspect of silver if more troubling news surface about European banks, Brexit and, simply, slowing growth.
A correction will only be healthy going forward. The weekly chart shows at $17 is a tough nut to crack - only seeing one close above this level since January '15.
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XAG/XAU: Long silver and short gold long termWe can take this trade Tim West pinpointed today, since gold retrace slightly and silver hasn't yet, this is an ideal entry for both trades. You should size them using 3 times the daily ATR, to risk a full position on each side. This keeps positions volatility adjusted on each leg of the pair.
Hold it, long term, possibly past December 2016.
Gold looks like an intermediate term top here, so it's a fairly safe trade.
A good alternative is short NEM/long SLV, which looks to be more overextended even, but the main indicator is this chart right here. Don't set any stops in this trade, just calculate your position size for each leg, based on ATR.
Tim West suggested this trade today in the KHL chatroom, and now seems like the perfect time to take it.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
RunningAlpha Upgrades Commodity Markets Update to Priority ListRunningAlpha dot com Capital Markets Intelligence High Priority Update for Monday, May 2nd, 2016
Although $39 and $36.50 remains baseline intermediate to long-term support for Light Crude Oil ( in reference to June Contract Pricing ), the recent advance upwards has opened the door for a further short covering rally upwards to $62 to $65, and perhaps $74 to $76 levels if on a spike. Bullish window for buying on dips extends into at least June period -- this also applies to Brent Crude. Russian Stock Market ( $RSX ) looks bullish during this period. Oil and Gas Drilling stocks will likely continue higher on balance -- particularly a core position in stocks like $PBR.A would be sensible, which should also benefit from a continued bullish run in Brazilian Equities ( which I expect Brazilian equities should trend higher into the summer, and again later in the fall to close out the year much higher ). Among many other equities in Latin America, $ARCO and $KOF also have a strong bullish bias with sentiment conviction windows extending into foreseeable future.
Other Commodity Markets showing very significant sentiment strength going forward are in the Agricultural complex -- Soybean, particularly Soybean Meal $SOYB, Rice, Corn $CORN, Cotton $BAL and Coffee ( $JO is ETF -- when above $18.02 and especially when trading above above $19.00, then $27 is interim target ), and even wheat to some degree. Equities that would benefit from a rise in these commodity markets should have a tail-wind. Silver and Gold stocks, which RunningAlpha.com has been bullish on for a few months now, still shows signs of strength on pullbacks. Sourced from premium sentiment conviction list on RunningAlpha dot com
Long term, Gold/Silver Stocks have a a long way to goSometimes we get caught up in the day to day and hour to hour bars, but if we truly set a bottom at beginning of 2016, then we have a long way to go on this move up.
Some thoughts on $GLD GoldMay be a chance for consolidation/pullback here to break through this high traffic area. "Overbot" conditions support some cooling off is possible.
SLW completes harmonic pattern then go longSLW is expected to trade down to the $20 level, then go long during the trend reversal.
GG broken out of retracment box, Is it still bullish?With the gold miners stocks tend to have a very volatile behavior. They correlate with the equities market as well as physical gold. Hence they tend to gap up and down. That's just its personality. Looking at the long term view, it still looks bullish and the inverse head and shoulder is still intact. Possible morning star reversal forming if it if gaps up tomorrow. (Other miners like GDX, SLW also have the same reversal pattern and have respected the retracement levels). For the miners to be bullish from this point onwards, the equities market and physical gold has to become bullish.( or physical gold has to be more bullish that the equities market, if the recent selling and market correction is to persist. Ignore intra-day volatility and focus on the long term view. Swing/ position trading
