ETH LEAD to CROSSOVER LAGMy first post of hopefully more to come!
Please note, I have no formal TA training and the lines are just a rough guide to get my main SMA crossover point across. Please also forgive me for my vague phrasing.
A friend and I have been researching and testing a few different neural network models, LSTM and reinforcement. We are now getting deeper into the LSTM model to predict near term price changes, later incorporating market sentiment (positivity) that we will hopefully use to construct a portfolio of non correlated instruments that will be automatically readjusted frequently to push fund allocation towards positive predictions and away from negative ones.
Now to this chart, while we were looking at different models and backtesting strategies we came across a simple program where you can search for the optimal (most successful) lead/lag SMA periods for crossover trading. While this doesn't mean that the crossover periods will continue to perform as well or at all compared to the backtest, it has worked the best so far.
I'm going to be making a small entry if the lead crosses above the lag by 2.5%, with selling to be done when it falls below it by 2.5%
Let's see what happens!
Sma
USDJPY 15M Short | Evening StarCandle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: against
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: 1+
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: bullish
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: R2
Elliot Wave:
Possibly Elliot wave 2
Looking for next swing high to fall short of previous swing high then make a move for wave 3 to the downside
Notes:
Evening star triggered entry at the .764 fib level of previous swing high. Entry placed 10 pips of current swing high
200SMA is starting to show possible turnover to the downside. Looking for a retest of the last swing high before making a move to the downside
stochastic showing over-bought at time of entry
macd is showing bullish strength, however we are seeing some divergence to the downside
What can go wrong:
could make a new wave 5 instead
AUDJPY 15M long | Morning StarOpened overnight, already at 60 pip by morning
Candle Pattern: Morning star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .50
Fib TP: 1+
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD: bullish
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: R1
Elliot Wave:
on wave 5
Looking for final wave 5 high
Notes:
Morning star tail triggered my entry at the .50 fib level.
.50 fib used because .618 and 764 were below 200 sma
stochastic showing over-sold at time of entry
macd is showing bullish strength
What can go wrong:
could make a new wave 4 low before starting wave 5.
USDJPY 15M long | Morning StarCandle Pattern: Morning star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: 0
Fib TP: 1
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD: bullish
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: Pivot
Elliot Wave:
End of wave 5
Looking for final wave 5 high
Notes:
Morning star forming at the 200SMA and last swing low
stochastic showing over-sold
macd is showing bullish strength
What can go wrong:
ABC correction could start now
MACD now turning bearish on strength and stochastic has more room to the downside.
Might be a premature entry
USDCAD 15M short | Evening StarCandle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .618
Fib TP: 1
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: bearish
200SMA: below
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: Pivot & R1
Elliot Wave:
End of wave 5
Looking for final wave 5 low
Notes:
Evening star formed at 764 fib level, around the r1 pivot
stochastic within over-bought zone
macd is showing bearish strength
What can go wrong:
ABC correction could start now
EURUSD 15M long | Morning StarCandle Pattern: Morning star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: against
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: 1
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD: bullish
200SMA: below
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: S1
Elliot Wave:
End of wave 5
Looking for ABC correction to the upside
Notes:
morning star formed at 764 fib level, around the s1 pivot
stochastic within over-sold zone
macd is showing strength moving from bearish to bullish.
What can go wrong:
price could end up making a new wave 5 low past SL
USDJPY 15M short | Evening StarCandle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 3 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 60
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .618
Fib TP: 1
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: bearish
200SMA: below
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: Pivot && R1
Elliot Wave:
Currently on wave 4
looking for wave 4 to make a completion closer to wave 1 high
Notes:
Evening star expected to form at the 618 or 764 level then make a move down to finalize elliot wave 4
stochastic within over-bought zone
macd is showing strength moving from bearish to bullish. Im hoping for 1 more drop before the real push to the upside
What can go wrong:
wave 4 could be completed already and this could be the start of the upside move.
AUDUSD 15M long | Morning StarCandle Pattern: Morning star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: against
TP/SL Ratio Target: 1 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 20
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: .5
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD: bullish
200SMA: below
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: S1
Elliot Wave:
possibly ABC completion
Might be the start of a new motive wave to the upside. Currently completing wave 2, retesting the swing low.
Notes:
Morning star formed below the .764 retracement. Entry placed at 764 for a move to the upside
stochastic moving out of oversold zone
macd is showing strength moving to the upside
What can go wrong:
breaking the current swing low could indicate a new wave C low or the start of wave 3 to the downside.
EURUSD 15M short | Evening StarORDER OPENED OVERNIGHT
CLOSED BEFORE POSTING THIS
Candle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: .236
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: turning bearing
200SMA: slightly above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: R3
Elliot Wave:
wave 4 completion
possibly wave 4 completion area as its getting close to wave 1 low. Looking for a test to the wave 1 low then make a move to the downside to make wave 5
Notes:
Evening star formed around the .618 retracement. Looking for price to hit .764 before making its move to the downside
stochastic hitting over-bought zones without making new highs
macd is showing a bearsh move to the downside
What can go wrong:
wave 4 can go too high past my SL and get very close to wave 1 low
breaking wave 1 low would indicate a possible ABC to the upside instead
USDCHF 15M short | Evening StarORDER OPENED OVERNIGHT
Candle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: against
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: 1
Fib TP: .50
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: Bullish turning bearing
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot && R1
Elliot Wave:
Wave 3 high established
looking for a move to the downside to form wave 4 low
Notes:
morning star formed at a swing high point, price dipping below brown and purple SMAs showing some weakness in the bull trend.
stochastic oversold a the time of placing the order. Looking for stochastic to move back to overbought around the last swing high before making a move to the downside.
macd is showing a bearsh move to the downside
What can go wrong:
new wave 3 high can still be established
CADJPY 15M showrt | Evening StarORDER OPENED OVERNIGHT
Candle Pattern: Morning star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: against
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: 1
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: Bullish turning bearing
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot && R1
Elliot Wave:
Correction Phase
Wave A completed, looking for B point shy of wave 5, then make a downside move
Notes:
morning star formed at the brown SMA. Entry placed at the high of the star which is equal to the fib .764 and SL extends past swing high
stochastic was oversold at the time of entry, looking for stochastic to go overbought around the 764 level then sell off
macd is showing a bearsh move to the downside
What can go wrong:
could establish a new wave 5 high.
USDJPY 15M long | Morning StarORDER OPENED OVERNIGHT ENTRY
Candle Pattern: Morning star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .618
Fib TP: .236
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD: bearish
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot
Elliot Wave:
Wave 3 completed
Currently on wave 4 to the downside.
Notes:
morning star formed at the green SMA. Entry placed at the low of the star which is equal to the fib .618, todays pivot and shy of the 200 sma
stochastic was oversold at the time of the star. Looking for retest of the star before moving up.
macd is brearish but showing some bullish upside
What can go wrong:
wave 4 could continue to make a new low
TRON (TRX) - 350% Possible Earnings - Risky
Hello Crypto Family.
Today we have TRON on our radar.
One of the few which is actually growing.
This is solid project with experienced team on board. tron.network
In terms of market cap it is in top 10. Decent rates on coingecko (72 %) where it's ranked on 8th place just behind the NEO and EOS.
Good rating on coincheckup 4.2/5 stars (again in top 10).
Today`s volume over 3.3 Bln $ . Last 11 out of 13 sessions were green.
It has a lot of liquidity (Binance, Bittrex, Bit-Z, OKEX, Bitfinex and more).
They launch Testnet tomorrow which can be the reason of the upward movment but not necessarily.
Some technical analysis details:
It seems that Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern didnt work out.
We are at the bottom comapring Dec/Jan and we have strong up movement.
MACD positive divergence - strong buy signal
DMI bulls cross
The chart crossed SMA50 chart
Strong Volume
Fibonacci Levels:
1. 0.00000749
2. 0.00001039
3. 0.00001273
4. 0.00001507
5. 0.00001841
6. 0.00002023 (ATH)
Time frame 1-3 months depending on the market.
What do you guys think? Share your ideas and thoughts with us. We need you, we want you! Hugs!
CURIO: New organ in human body was lately discovered. A new organ has just been discovered in the human body after scientists had missed it for thousands of years. Scientists have identified a new human organ hiding in plain sight, in a discovery they hope could help them understand the spread of cancer within the body. Layers long thought to be dense, connective tissue are actually a series of fluid-filled compartments researchers have termed the “interstitium”. These compartments are found beneath the skin, as well as lining the gut, lungs, blood vessels and muscles, and join together to form a network supported by a mesh of strong, flexible proteins.
USDJPY 15M long | Morning StarORDER OPENED OVERNIGHT ENTRY
Candle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .236
Fib TP: 1+
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD: trending up
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot
Elliot Wave:
Wave C correction possibly completed
Start of wave 3 to the upside
Notes:
series of morning stars formed along the 200sma. Entry placed at tip of morning star where SL extends beyond 200sma
stochastic showing bullish strength
macd just went positive to bullish strength
What can go wrong:
wave C could make a new low
AUDJPY 15M short | Evening Star EntryCandle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .382
Fib TP: 1
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: trending up
200SMA: below
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot
Elliot Wave:
Possibly the start of wave 3 to the upside but since price is below 200sma, going to try to see if price action retests the lows before moving up.
Notes:
double evening stars formed just below the 200 sma
Entry placed at the evening star level where SL will extend past the stars and also beyond the 200sma
stochastic entered the overbought zone and is begining to turn down
macd strength was on the downside and has currently moved to the upside. Hoping for a correction back to the downside
What can go wrong:
wave 3 could start now and move to the upside
GBPUSD 15M short | Evening Star EntryENTRY MADE OVERNIGHT
Candle Pattern: Evening star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: against
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: 0
Fib TP: 1+
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: trending down
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot
Elliot Wave:
Wave 5 completed. Looking for a drop to create wave A correction
Notes:
Entry placed just shy of the last swing high.
Playing against the trend because im looking for a wave A correction from the wave 5 completion
stochastic entered the overbought zone several times without making new highs in the price action
macd showing strength moving to the downside
What can go wrong:
could end up making a new wave 5 high.
USDCHF 15M short | 764 Fibonacci EntryCandle Pattern: evening star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: 1+
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: up
200SMA: below
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: pivot
Elliot Wave:
wave C pullback, looking for wave C to make a new low
Notes:
Entry placed at the .764 level at the pivot point and just at the 200sma. SL extends beyond last swing high
stochastic entered the overbought zone and making a dip back to the down side.
macd showing strength to the upside
What can go wrong:
could be the end of wave C and the start of a new uptrend
USDJPY 15M short | 764 Fibonacci Entry | Evening StarCandle Pattern: evening star
Trend: down
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: .50
Stochastic: over-bought
MACD: down
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: R5
Elliot Wave:
possible Wave 4 completion and the start of wave 5.
Wave 4 is at the edge of the wave 1 zone making for a high probability entry to the downside
Notes:
Entry placed at the .764 level at the R5 pivot point where 20 SL extends in the wave 1 zone
stochastic showing extreme overbought and momentum slowing down to the upside
What can go wrong:
crossing into wave 1 territory would invalidate the downside elliot wave trend and might actually be the start of a new elliot wave to the upside
AUDUSD 15M long | 764 Fibonacci EntryCandle Pattern: morning star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: .382
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD Histogram: contracting up
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: S1
Elliot Wave:
Possibly elliot wave 2 in completion and good time to enter for wave 3
Notes:
Entry placed at the .764 level near the S1 pivot point
stochastic showing oversold zone
macd histogram showing momentum slowing to the downside and momentum picking up to the upside. lower range crossover happening
TP Goal set to 40 pips but will take anything in profit near end of day
What can go wrong:
might not be the start of wave 3 if price breaks the recent swing low.
If price breaks recent swing low it will invalidate the whole elliot wave to the upside
USDCHF 15M long | Fibonacci EntryCandle Pattern: N/A
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: 1.0
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD Histogram: contracting up
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: S1
Elliot Wave:
Currently in correction from wave 5 completion.
Correction A might be completed and looking for a move to Correction BB
Notes:
Entry placed at the .764 level near the S1 pivot point
stochastic showing oversold zone
macd histogram showing momentum slowing to the downside and momentum picking up to the upside. mutiple lower range crossovers happening
TP Goal around 40 pips but will let it ride as far as possible to point B
What can go wrong:
the current downside move to point A could continue further past my estimates and SL.
Fed rates news could mean more volatility than my SL can handle
USDJPY 15M long | Morning Star Fibonacci Retracement
Candle Pattern: morning Star
Trend: up
Trend Entry: with
TP/SL Ratio Target: 2 to 1
Target TP PIPs: 40
SL PIPS: 20
Fib Entry: .764
Fib TP: 1.0
Stochastic: over-sold
MACD Histogram: contracting up
200SMA: above
BB: n/a
Pivot Point: S1
Elliot Wave:
currently on wave 3. Having a small pullback that retraced into wave 1 zone.
Expecting a push out of wave 1 zone to complete wave 3 to the upside
Notes:
Overnight order entry placed at the .764 retracement
morning star formed around the .764 level and the S1 pivot point
stochastic showing oversold
macd histogram showing momentum slowing to the downside. mutiple crossovers happening
TP Goal around 40 pips but will let it ride as far as possible to wave 3 high
What can go wrong:
the current downside retracement could go further down before turning over to the upside.