Six conviction trades for 2025: seize the new market narrativeWhile developed economies have shifted to easing policies, opening the way for a broadening of the market away from technology mega stocks, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The violent reaction to DeepSeek’s launch early in the year clearly highlights the nervousness of markets and their ultra concentration. In the first few weeks of the year, the Trump administration has also been implementing its agenda at breakneck speed, leading to heightened uncertainties around trade frictions, inflation dynamics, and geopolitical upheaval. In that context, it is important to rethink investment positionings that may have worked in 2024, acknowledging the potential for volatility and numerous changes of directions.
In this uncertain environment, WisdomTree’s research team presents its six highest-conviction investment ideas for 2025.
1. Can the Magnificent Seven dominate for a third year in a row?
Few storylines have captured the investor imagination recently as much as the Magnificent Seven —a cohort of mega-cap technology stocks that propelled US equity benchmarks to remarkable gains. While these tech giants remain influential, we see scope for 2025 to become a year of ‘broadening out’.
Macro rationale
Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination.
Value resilience and broadening: with uncertainty increasing around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) trajectory and inflationary pressures created by potential tariffs, value stocks may benefit and offer some diversification. Energy and Financials should also benefit from a wave of deregulation under the new Trump regime.
The case for a value/growth barbell strategy in US equities: a barbell strategy between US large cap quality Growth and US large cap Value equities leverages complementary strengths to navigate 2025. This approach allows investors to:
Capitalise on the Value factor’s extreme discount to Growth.
Enable investors to capture opportunities across market cycles.
Create a balance between growth potential and valuation-driven safety.
2. Unlocking value in Japan
Japan’s economic transformation story continues to gain traction as the country moves beyond four decades of stagnant nominal growth and sporadic deflationary episodes. While 2024 was the best year for Japanese equities since 1989, we believe that the Japanese renaissance still has further room to run.
Macro rationale
Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination.
Favourable currency tailwinds: the yen’s multi-year weakness augments the competitiveness of Japanese exporters, fuelling strong earnings from overseas revenue. Stable core inflation (outside of food) and talks about bond purchases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) indicate that the BOJ will prevent the yen from appreciating too much.
Earnings and tariffs: Corporate earnings growth remains very strong after 2 years of improvement, and our analysis shows that the market is underreacting to those fundamentals. Furthermore, Japan may be able to secure a tariff carve-out from the US, leading to strengthening competitive positioning versus Europe and China.
3. A Trump card for emerging markets small caps
Emerging markets (EM) have struggled over the past decade, underweighted by many global investors and burned by repeated episodes of dollar strength, trade frictions, and slower growth in China. However, the narrative is a lot more positive going into 2025.
Macro rationale
An EM comeback: with the Federal Reserve maintaining an accommodative stance on monetary policy, China unleashing coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a wave of EM sovereign ratings upgrades, tailwinds have been picking up strongly for emerging markets.
But some clouds remain on the horizon: unfortunately, the Trump administration’s focus on a strong dollar and tariffs could slow down the recovery.
EM smalls caps as the solution: EM small caps typically derive a larger share of revenues from their home countries, insulating them somewhat from US tariffs or the dollar ‘s strength. In a scenario where the global trade outlook remains uncertain, these domestically oriented firms can thrive on internal consumer growth, as rising middle-class demographics in markets like India, Indonesia, and parts of Latin America continue to drive local consumer demand.
4. Cybersecurity at the crossroads of AI, geopolitical tensions, and quantum computing
The first few weeks of 2025 saw a resurgence of software stocks, with cybersecurity companies jumping in front of semiconductors or AI stocks. Continued corporate and government spending, as well as the imperative to protect the AI revolution, position cybersecurity for robust growth in 2025.
Macro rationale
AI’s security gap: rapid AI adoption brings higher data volumes and more software vulnerabilities, forcing enterprises to bolster their cyber defences. We expect a wave of spending on next-generation cloud solutions, zero-trust architecture, and quantum-proof encryption.
Elevated geopolitical risks: heightened tensions—from continuing conflicts and new trade disputes—translate into more frequent state-sponsored cyber-attacks. This, in turn, drives increased defence budgets and corporate vigilance.
US deregulation: since the US election, software companies have benefitted from deregulation expectations. Cybersecurity, cloud, and blockchain posted some of the strongest thematic gains in the first few weeks of the year.
5. Precious potential: silver’s breakout moment
While gold often steals the headlines, silver has quietly staged a meaningful rally, underpinned by both safe-haven demand and its essential role in green technologies, such as solar photovoltaics. 2025 could be silver’s ‘catch-up’ year.
Macro rationale
Haven meets industrial: silver exhibits a unique duality—part precious metal and part industrial commodity. If risk aversion flares, silver typically follows gold upward. If global growth holds steady, silver benefits from manufacturing demand. Countries worldwide, led by China and the US, are rapidly expanding solar capacity. Newer solar cell technology requires even higher silver content, providing a price tailwind.
Gold correlation: geopolitical tensions and looser monetary policy are offering gold new tailwinds, and silver will also benefit from the catch-up effect.
Limited supply growth: silver’s byproduct nature makes supply tight, as mining companies are not incentivised to expand production simply for silver alone. This supply-demand imbalance supports a more bullish price outlook.
6. Institutional adoption of digital assets is redefining multi-asset portfolios
After navigating a series of regulatory speed bumps, digital assets, led by bitcoin, have entered 2025 with growing mainstream acceptance. Key catalysts have included the expansion of physical bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) listings across major exchanges and the gradual emergence of regulatory frameworks that remove operational frictions. We believe most multi-asset portfolios remain structurally under-allocated to cryptocurrencies as a neutral position in digital assets (as illustrated by the market portfolio) should be around 1.5%.
Macro rationale
Portfolio diversification: bitcoin’s correlation to equities and bonds is low, providing a diversification benefit. Even small allocations have, historically, improved risk-adjusted returns.
Institutional inflows: pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds are steadily warming to digital assets, pointing to a rising tide of flows. As coverage by mainstream analysts grows, digital assets are increasingly viewed through the lens of asset class fundamentals rather than speculation alone.
Technological leaps: alongside bitcoin, developments in Ethereum scaling, stablecoins for global payments, and the tokenisation of real-world assets are reshaping how capital markets function. The resulting network effects may boost confidence in the broader crypto ecosystem.
Conclusion
In an environment that may reward conviction and flexibility, these six investment ideas offer distinct avenues to harness the opportunities emerging in 2025. Whether you seek cyclical upside, defensive yield, or secular growth themes, we believe these high-conviction calls exemplify WisdomTree’s mission: delivering innovative, research-driven solutions in a world of constant change.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Small
SGD’s $19M Pivot + Tiny Float = Big OpportunitySafe and Green Development Corporation (NASDAQ: SGD), a real estate development and innovation company, has released a letter to Shareholders regarding its decision to acquire 100% of the equity interests in Resource Group US Holdings LLC.
Key takeaways...
* Transformational Acquisition: Cash-flowing business expected to generate $19.1 million in 2024, with $25 million projected in 2025 revenue.
• Strategic Pivot: Expanding into the high-demand engineered soils industry, enhancing land redevelopment opportunities.
• Strong Asset Backing: Land holdings valued at $50 million, plus $6.575 million in Texas land under contract.
• Single-Family Development Success: South Texas homes already under contract, showcasing rapid demand and execution.
• Sustainable & Scalable: Cutting-edge prefabricated modules (wood & steel) built internally—built for speed, cost savings, and environmental efficiency.
• Market Dynamics: With a tight public float, growing short interest, and rising borrow costs, SGD is increasingly positioned for a potential short squeeze — a setup that’s attracted significant investor attention in other high-growth small caps.
“Dear Shareholders,
We wanted to provide you with insight into our decision to move forward with the acquisition of Resource Group US Holdings LLC and the strategic reasoning behind this pivotal move. Resource Group, as you may already be aware, is a company that holds an exclusive license to a cutting-edge technology, which grants it a significant competitive advantage in the composting and engineered soils industry.
Our decision to acquire Resource Group represents a calculated shift in our business model, as we intend to leverage our expertise in real estate development by utilizing Resource Group’s technology to redevelop forthcoming land opportunities. However, going forward, the primary focus of our company will be on Resource Group’s core business, capitalizing on the opportunities it presents for our growth initiatives.
One of the key factors that made Resource Group an attractive acquisition target is its vertical integration and ownership of a logistics business. This opens up additional avenues for growth through mergers and acquisitions as well as our current soils industry opportunities expanding our market presence and enhancing our competitive edge.
Resource Group’s remarkable performance in recent years is another compelling factor that influenced our decision. They have demonstrated substantial growth, increasing their revenues from $16 million (unaudited) in 2023 to an impressive $19.1 million (unaudited) in 2024. Through the completion of this acquisition, we anticipate pro forma revenues of approximately $25 million in 2025. Such growth prospects are indicative of Resource Group’s potential to change the financial profile of SGD significantly.
Moreover, the scalability and replicability of Resource Group’s business model offer an exciting opportunity for rapid expansion in multiple markets and industry sectors. As we set our sights on addressing a sizable $3.2 billion market in Florida alone, the potential for unlocking substantial value becomes truly evident.
We firmly believe that this acquisition will create tremendous value for our shareholders. It is unfortunate that the market has not fully recognized the transformative potential and effect this deal will have on our company and the value it will generate for our esteemed shareholders.
In conclusion, we are confident that the acquisition of Resource Group aligns perfectly with our long-term strategic goals and our commitment to our protecting our shareholders interest. By leveraging their exclusive technology and capitalizing on their core business, we anticipate the creation of sustainable value for SGD and its shareholders. We remain committed to executing this acquisition seamlessly and delivering strong financial performance in the years to come.
Thank you for your continued support.”
BTCUSD CHART ANALYSIS ON MID & HIGHER TIMEFRAMES!
Firstly, on bitcoin note the bullish Cup & Handle pattern that sure has been in formation for a long time.
On the 1HR & 4HR charts price is getting support on the 200 EMA & 50 EMA respectively. Ideally on the 1HR chart we want the 200 EMA to form underneath the 50 EMA.
Digressing a bit, my feeling is that next week precious metals like Gold will not perform as well as they have this week. Gold in particular is overextended and overbought on the higher timeframe Stochastics. Silver to a lesser extent which will still shine over Gold in the short term. Notwithstanding, the Gold price will go through the roof next month when the USA finally moves on reducing interest rates which is almost a certainty IMO.
I think that the recent blunt price action in Bitcoin as the focus has been on Gold the last couple of weeks, it could be a bullish run for Bitcoin coming up from this Monday. The 1HR chart looks very bullish to me.
IWM looking vulnerableThe Russel 2000 closed below the daily 200 MA today.
It's never a good sign for the breadth in the market when the Russel starts breaking down.
I think there's a strong likelhood we continue to breakdown, based off todays IWM price action.
Small caps got rejected today at the pre market high and just kept selling all day. What makes thing price action bad is the fact that we closed below the pre market low and the daily 200 MA.
The volume on todays close was higher than usual which also indicates some serious selling pressure.
A clear Head & shoulders pattern is apparent on the chart, if this triggers...watch out below.
🟩 Smaller stocks are showing valueThe small caps are getting to levels when they show value based on earning yields nad based on relative strenghts.
These are the levels we saw before when the Russell 1000 started outperform the Russell 2000. Hence this is showing a potential broadening of the rally and give confidence to traders to not stick to the Mega Caps (FAANGS).
Rather, this is showing traders, that as long as stocks setup, you can stay synced with the theme.
TVC:RUT and TVC:RUI
Sector Rotation from Small Cap Growth to ValueSector Rotation from Small Cap Growth to Value -
IWO: the Ishares small-cap Value ETF
IWN: The Ishares small-cap Growth ETF.
This chart plots the strength of Value vs Growth - if its trending Higher Value is in favor by the markets. If it's trending lower, Growth is in favor.
Fubo reversal?$FUBO looks like its starting to bottom out at the $20 psychological level. Grabbed a $20 call with time.
Not a bad place to grab some shares either if your bullish IMO
- Strong bullish hammer candle on daily indicating buyers are present at this weekly support.
-Fubo got smacked from $35 before earnings to $20, great risk to reward play.
Swing targets: 21.3, 21.8, 22.55, 23
Stop is a close below $20
I will most likely add to my position again if we retest and hold $20 tomorrow.
$CPRI: Continues to stun the marketWith another massive earnings beat, the market continues to find value in this name that was getting beaten up long before COVID. Should be interesting to see if CPRI can continue to impress into holiday season and beyond.
Q2 2021 Highlights
Revenue increased 178%, with better than anticipated results across all three luxury houses
Adjusted gross margin expanded 90 basis points versus prior year
Adjusted operating margin of 20.8%
Adjusted earnings per share of $1.42
Raised full year adjusted earnings per share outlook to $4.50
Vanguard S&P Small Cap Growth ETF - clear horizontal boundariesFour months range-bound, this low-volatility ETF includes 600 constituents and offers a tiny 0.10% fee for the more passive, but still risk inclined investor (these are small cap growth oriented stocks).
The pattern boundaries are clear, and volatility is relatively low vs. historical. Price action above $235 would confirm a breakout to the upside, while a move below $205 could reflect a broader selloff coming for growth stocks.
Constituents include companies like: Gamestop, Omnicell, Macy's, Chart Industries, 3D Systems, Agree Realty Corp.
Several of the individual constituents also have constructive charts, with subjectively clear risk levels, such as 3D Systems (DDD).
$GME, $GTLS, $ADC, $DDD, $OMCL, $VIOG
AQUA: Potential Benefitor From Biden AdministrationRelative strength against S&P picking up, strong breaks above trendlines with small caps still seemingly being supported by the market. Liking this one for a longer term hold
DERO possible upmove soonMy first post, so I am just testing ;) If you think it's worthwhile, press the like button!
JOB GEE GROUP INCI have this stock in my wallet, so I'm keeping tabs on it. I am writing this article just to signal a nice drop of 33%.
This is the company: www.geegroup.com
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: I'm not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. This writing is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Luca Valente expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.