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4-25-23 [russel2000]Good afternoon, Anon, Seeking a comprehensive breakdown of the Russel2000? Allow me to elucidate for you. --- The Russell 2000 is presently entrenched in a quintessential Wyckoff accumulation phase: Dubbed - The Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. --- Who is Wyckoff, and why is he of significance? Well, Wyckoff reigns as the vanquisher of bears, as well as the architect of unanticipated realities. Wyckoff embodies an interdimensional algorithm, crafted to cleave you asunder. --- Green trajectory = Should the ensuing days yield favorable earnings, anticipate the Russell 2000 to be propelled into the celestial realms. Strawberry trajectory = Russell breaches the low with ferocity, accompanied by a colossal volume spike, prior to being catapulted to all-time highs. --- Ps. An upsurge in small-cap stocks signifies an environment inclined towards risk-taking.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by notoriousbids
3
Smalls B4 MegasIn both 08 crisis & pandemic crash, small caps consistently going up for several months were the proof that the bears were done. That has not happened yet for this recession! Notice small caps are at best going sideways, & starting to trend further down, while ^RU50 Mega caps (like XLG) think the worst is behind them & Bulls saying don't miss the party. But it's not the end of the Bear market. If Main street is still struggling, & we know & see it is all around us, then Wall street is just having a minor rally that will smack them back to reality soon enough. Momentum doesn't lie, so watch the Volume & trends!
AMEX:IWMShort
by roelds
2
5 ways to play the current macro environmentWhy We Rallied It's been a strong few months for the S&P 500, which is up about 13% from the October lows. There were five reasons for the rally: 1) P/E ratios got attractive, especially for small-to-mid caps. 2) Inflation peaked, which historically has sometimes marked the bottom for stocks. 3) Global liquidity turned upward. Every major bond market was pricing a central bank pivot, and the big central banks (particularly Japan and China) added about $1 trillion to their balance sheets. 4) Economic data remained surprisingly strong, which raised hopes of a "soft landing." 5) Possibly there was a bit of forced buying due to a "short squeeze." Why the Rally Is Probably Over However, I believe we've now reached an inflection point where these tailwinds will turn into headwinds. 1) The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 P/E ratios are once again looking high (although S&P 400 and S&P 600 still look cheap). (See this report from Ed Yardeni.) 2) Inflation is no longer surprising to the downside. The last couple prints have been exactly in line with forecasts, and leading indicators of inflation have been creeping back up. See, for instance, this chart of service sector wages, this chart of copper prices, and this Goldman Sachs forecast of crude oil prices. This is partly because of the global liquidity boost and continued deficit spending , and it's partly because of China ending its Covid-zero policy and reopening its economy. (China is the largest importer of crude and the second-largest importer of liquified natural gas in the world.) 3) With inflation set to stay high, liquidity has tightened a lot. The market is no longer pricing a Fed pivot , and analysts suggest the central bank liquidity boost may be over . Stocks have now gotten significantly higher than liquidity measures would predict , which suggests they may need to come down a little. 4) Economic data are deteriorating. Leading indicators have been pointing toward recession for months , but consumer savings and a glut of job openings have helped delay it. We're definitely starting to see weakness, though. Credit card debt has soared to an all-time high , we're seeing more late payments , and the housing market is cooling off fast , with inventories of unused construction materials piling up . We've seen "soft landing" hype before: in 2000 and 2007 , just before those recessions hit. Unless the Fed pivots immediately, it's probably not "different this time." 5) The short squeeze is over for large cap tech, with most of the shorts already forced out. Five Ideas for How to Reposition How to trade a coming recession? 1) The obvious trade is long bonds, short stocks. Bond market valuations are very attractive relative to stocks, with bond yields only a little below the S&P 500's earnings yield, and bond markets having perhaps gotten too hawkish relative to policy rates. Given the historical correlation between 10-year yields and S&P 500 valuations, the gap that has opened between them may imply an opportunity for a statistical arb. Either stock valuations should drop or bond yields should rise. Historically, in a recessionary environment, the bond market has tended to recover first, and the stock market second. So now would be the time to long those bonds. However , it should be noted that this recessionary environment is an unusual one in a lot of ways. Stocks have already sold off a lot, and valuations are pretty mixed. Bonds should perform well if we get a deflationary recession that allows to Fed to lower rates, but a stagflationary recession might force the Fed to keep rates high even as the economy stumbles. Thus, it may be worth getting a little more specific with our trade. Here are some other ideas: 2) Long investment-grade bonds, short high-yield bonds. If recession is coming, then high-yield spreads are probably way too low . It's possible that high-yield bond rates will rise even as investment-grade, Treasury, and policy rates fall. 3) Long high-quality small- and mid-caps, short low-quality large caps. In my opinion, large cap tech is still way too crowded. I wouldn't want to short Microsoft right now, given the success of Bing AI. But I'd be willing to take a swing at Amazon, Apple, and Netflix as long as I could balance the risk by longing some cheap, quality smalls and mids on the other side. In my opinion, the size factor is ripe for disruption. If you'd asked me two years ago, I would have said that AI would most benefit large cap tech. Now I think it will most benefit smalls. What changed between now and then is that AI went from being the exclusive domain of big companies to being publicly available at shockingly low cost. This happened way faster than I ever would have guessed, and you better believe that small, agile companies will capitalize on the opportunities provided by access to AI! 4) Long cash to buy the dip on energy stocks. Energy historically has struggled in a recession, so it's quite likely that energy stocks will see some downside soon. However, the current free cash flow yield on energy stocks is quite high , and the sector trades at 10x forward P/E . Meanwhile, investment in the sector is still much too low . I believe there will be a decade-long structural bull market in energy due to constrained supply, but that there will probably be some recessionary pain first. Meanwhile, money market funds offer a really high return on cash. My Fidelity money market is giving me almost 4%. Ain't nothing wrong with just collecting that money market rate and waiting for energy stocks to dip for the buy and hold. With retail investor inflows at an all-time high , I believe the current market environment offers a good opportunity for savvy bears to execute some well-constructed long-short trades. If you look at how the smart money is positioned, it's pretty much the opposite of retail positioning here. There will be a time to get bullish on US large cap stocks, but we probably need to see some weakening of coincident economic indicators like employment first. (Stocks tend to do best when unemployment rates are high .) Remember, market positioning beats market timing, but ideally you could do a little of both! Thanks for reading, and please share your ideas in the comments below!
NASDAQ:VCLTLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
16
#IWM Russel 2000 looking technically bullishSome real meaningful progression for the bull case in US small cap stocks. 50 dma > 200dma Price has cleared the critical resistance level between 187-188. Price has some short term resistance at the 38.2% fib retracement here, but it looks like we should progress to the next resistance level at the 50% fib retracement at 200. Chart is showing a clear formation of higher swing lows and higher highs. Hard to be bearish this chart. Opportunity here to buy the breakout with a relatively small stop as a close below 187.50 might put the bullish case on hold.
AMEX:IWMLong
by MarcoOlevano
Russell 2000 Index - EXPLAINED - What, Why, Where, How?Small cap stocks, Penny stocks and pink sheets are the high adrenaline stocks investors play games in. They are generally the cheaper, highly volatile, some are illiquid and can fluctuate 50% - 1,000% a day. From the Wolf of Wallstreet glamorizing the potential returns for investors to your every day salesman broker trying to sell you the next winner. But what is the Russell 2000 Index and what should we know about it? I’m going to sum it up a bit of information about how it works and important facts you need to know Enjoy! WHAT IS IT? The Russell 2000 Index (listed in 1984) is a stock market index that tracks the performance of small-cap publicly traded companies in the United States. It is named after the Russell Investment Group, which operates the index. The share price can vary significantly, as it is made up of a diverse range of small-cap publicly traded companies. MARKET CAP Small-cap stocks are generally ones with a market capitalization of between: $50 million and $2 billion. CRITERIA TO LIST STOCKS There are a few criteria that needs to be met to qualify for the inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index: • The company must be a publicly traded U.S. company. • It must market capitalization of at least $50 million. • Must be ranked in the bottom 2,000 of the Russell 3000 Index, based on market capitalization. • Must meet certain liquidity requirements, including having a minimum average daily trading volume of at least 250 shares over the previous six months. • Must have a minimum of one year of trading history. WHAT IT CONSISTS OF The index is made up of the smallest 2,000 publicly traded companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represents approximately 98% of the total market capitalization of all publicly traded companies in the United States. HOW IT OPERATES The index is reconstituted annually, with new companies added and removed based on their market capitalization and other factors. VOLATILITY & LIQUIDITY The Russell 2000 Index has a high level of volatility (greater price swings) and low liquidity (ease of flow of orders) compared to other large cap stocks. DANGERS WITH THE INDEX Currency risk: When the US dollar drops the index can follow Diversification: There is no sector for the stocks. When the index drops the stocks follow. Liquidity: You might find difficulties finding buyers or sellers to ease in or out of your positions. Volatility: The jumpiness in the market is highly erratic. Lack of analyst analysis: You’ll hardly see news coverage via the media which means, you could be left in the dark with what is going on in the companies. Liquidation risk: You have a higher chance at being in a company that is about to be liquidated due to financial issues, no growth, manipulation and cooking the books. Economic issues: When global economies collapse, stocks drop with it. Small cap stocks are no exceptions. This can affect the investment prospects .
TVC:RUTEducation
by Timonrosso
A Must Watch Nifty Analysis!!Hey Everyone!! Greetings from my side, let's talk to the point ➡️ As of now, you'll be observing that the market's countertrend is negative and profit booking is coming.🔴 ➡️ But the primary trend of the market is still up and 200 MA is pointing Upward too.🟢 ➡️ So It can be a regular pullback on the higher time frame and can be used to buy good fundamental Stocks (Inner voice Saying Don't forget niftybees) NSE:NIFTYBEES ;-) ➡️ and to terminate the counter-trend we need a higher high or a close above this resistance which'll resume the primary trend.🟢 ➡️ So one needs to be a little cautious in the upcoming Days.🔴 and If you want to know about good fundamental Stocks " Type fundamental in the comments " Don't forget to follow for your learnings.✌️
NSE:NIFTY
by Gagan_Ahuja_13
o' man o' man.if i'm right about this, so many people are going to so devastated. most market participants are already completely and utterly distraught, this rally could just simply set them over the edge. --- i'm theorizing a full blown rally in the months ahead, right into april \ may. --- russel200 expanded flat target sits right a the 1.75 algo, which is roughly at $2392 --- please don't treat this as financial advice. consult your financial advisor before making any decisions in this market.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by notoriousbids
ROSSARI BIOTECH, BULLISH!!almost 2 and a half year, the stock has given about 22% returns. this is a very bad performed. nifty small&mid cap indice is going to get bullish very soon. and rossari would be a part of it. its trading near to its IPO LISTING PRICE. this stock has a good fundamentals, and sales. so it got a lot of potential to go upside. i have drawn several levels, to take positions in this stock, and a breach to the blue resistance, means the stock will all over carry till 1120, and 1300. have a look at MACD, now it has started to rise upards, soon we could see green candles coming in. good time to make positions in this stock. there could be a U- SHAPED recovery. and final point, RSI indicator is also at a buying zone. path has drawn, based on U- SHAPED recovery.
NSE:ROSSARILong
by raghavchoudhary2016
IMPORTANT BREAKOUT - Opportunities in SMALL CAPSThe price made a significant move, breaking out of the channel of lower highs it was forming during the year. Probably will see a retest, before climbing higher. Next resistance between 14000 - 14700. European markets already capitulated, although the S&P 500 hasn't yet. The European Economy's future doesn't look bright. Nevertheless, I think that the market already priced these risks. Exciting opportunities in Small Caps in Europe. Do not follow the crowd, be OPEN-MINDED, and be CONTRARIAN. Good luck with your investments.
EUREX:FDXM1!Long
by GenadiYankov