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USDJPY | Smart Money Long Setup – Deep Fib + OB Reaction💴 USDJPY | Institutional Long Play with Perfect OB + Fib Confluence Price gave us an aggressive push off the demand zone, showing clear Smart Money accumulation behavior. This setup is high probability based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). 🔍 1. Technical Breakdown Strong impulse move upward Clean pullback into the Order Block Confluence with 70.5%–79% Fibonacci retracement zone Price respected the OB zone and printed higher highs That reaction was institutional — no cap 🧢. 🧱 2. Bullish Confluences 🔥 Order Block (OB): Purple demand zone = unmitigated 📐 Fib Sweet Spot: 70.5%–79% = institutional re-entry levels ✅ Strong Wick Rejection: Shows absorption of sell-side liquidity 📈 Market Structure Shift: Break of structure to the upside 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: 142.89 (within OB + 70.5%) Stop Loss: 142.00 Take Profit: 145.49 zone This setup targets the -27% fib extension — a classic institutional TP level. ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 💰 Entry: 142.89 🔒 SL: 142.00 📍 TP: 145.49 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:2.9 Solid intraday-to-swing play with clean structure. 🧠 5. Key Confirmation Points Break and close above 144.36 = confirmed bullish intent Price respecting 143.44 OB = bulls still in control SL below OB = protected by demand block 💬 Comment “SMC Long Sniper 💹” if you caught this move! 🔄 Share this if you love OB + fib sniper entries 📌 Save this setup for your next demand zone playbook
Long
by ChartNinjas88
2
XAUUSD Rejection from Fib + OB Combo | Bearish Continuation?XAUUSD | Premium Smart Money Short Setup 🎯 This GOLD setup is a straight-up institutional-grade bearish continuation. Let’s break down why this is a high-probability short for Smart Money Traders. 🔍 1. Market Context Price is trending inside a clear descending channel, tapping into the lower boundary and now pulling back. We just had a reaction from the mid-supply zone, and price is now rebalancing into the Order Block (OB) aligned with: 🔻 79% Fibonacci Retracement 🔻 Previous Structure Break 🔻 OB + imbalance fill zone 🧱 2. Bearish Confluences 📉 Descending Channel = bearish structure 🟣 Order Block Zone = high-value area for institutional entries 📐 Fibonacci Levels = 61.8%, 70.5%, and 79% all stacked 💥 OB + 79% = high-prob sniper short 🕳 Imbalance + Liquidity Sweep = likely short continuation 🎯 3. Trade Idea Entry: 3282.00–3290.00 (OB + 79% Fib) Stop Loss: 3294.00 (above OB wick) Take Profit: 3245.00 zone (channel bottom) Perfect RR setup 👇 ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 💰 Entry: ~3285 🔒 SL: ~3294 📍 TP: ~3245 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:4.3 = sniper level swing short 🎯 🧠 5. Smart Money Logic Liquidity Sweep above minor high before short = engineered trap OB reaction at fib premium zone = smart entry Continuation expected unless price closes above 3295 📌 Save this chart — this is Smart Money flow in action 💬 Drop “Gold OB SMC 🔥” in comments if you saw this coming 🔁 Repost to help fellow traders master fib+OB sniper entries
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
XAGUSD Analysis with MMC | Trendline + CHoCH Insight + Target🔍 Overview This XAGUSD chart presents a classic Mirror Market Concept (MMC) pattern – a fractal, symmetrical market behavior often observed at key inflection points. The structure is currently forming a tight triangle pattern within two converging trendlines, signaling a compression phase before a significant breakout. Mirror Market Concept relies on the idea that historical emotional market structures tend to repeat or reflect, especially in psychologically sensitive zones such as trendline tests, liquidity pools, and BOS/CHoCH areas. 📐 Technical Structure Breakdown 🔷 1. Trendline Resistance & Support (Triangle Compression) Upper trendline connects successive lower highs, reflecting consistent seller pressure. Lower trendline aligns with higher lows, showing bullish defense and accumulation pressure. The result is a symmetrical triangle, often preceding explosive directional moves. 🔹 2. Blue Ray Zone The "Blue Ray" acts as a historical liquidity pivot — a region where large wicks and rejections happened in both directions. Price has respected this zone repeatedly, making it a likely impulse trigger area if revisited. 🔄 3. BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) Major BOS near the $33.60 area indicates a shift in market structure to bullish. The break above previous swing highs suggests buyers gained control temporarily. Major CHoCH at the base of the triangle reflects where market sentiment shifted, initiating the current series of higher lows. 📍 4. SR Interchange Zone Previous resistance around $32.80–$33.00 is now acting as support (interchange level), creating a confluence zone with the lower trendline and CHoCH point. 🎯 Forecast & Targets ✅ Bullish Scenario (Primary): A breakout above the upper triangle trendline and confirmation above $33.60 will validate the bullish breakout setup. Price Target: $34.40 – $34.60 (based on triangle height + measured move theory) Expect impulsive follow-through as trapped shorts exit and fresh longs enter. 🚫 Bearish Alternative: A breakdown below $33.00 with strong volume and bearish retest may invalidate the bullish setup. In such case, a fall toward $32.20–32.40 is possible — completing a deeper retracement before any resumption of the upward move. 🔍 Market Psychology Behind the Pattern This triangle represents market indecision, a "coil" where both bulls and bears are losing volatility while absorbing liquidity. The MMC concept teaches us that price often mirrors previous patterns — and the compressed energy inside triangles typically resolves in sharp momentum moves, mirroring the prior impulse. Expect a strong breakout that "mirrors" the breakout leg from May 22 to May 23. This type of reflection-based logic is a cornerstone of MMC. 🔔 Trading Plan & Strategy Entry: Wait for breakout and retest of the triangle boundary (ideally on 1H/2H close). Stop Loss: Below the most recent swing low inside the triangle. TP1: $34.10 TP2: $34.40 TP3: $34.60 (psychological level and measured move) ⚠️ Risk & News Considerations Upcoming U.S. economic data events (highlighted on the chart) could act as catalysts. Be prepared for volatility spikes and fakeouts. Always use solid risk management.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
GOLD Bearish Breakout! Sell! Hello,Traders! GOLD made a bearish Breakout of the key horizontal Level of 3285$ which also Seems to have been a neckline Of the small H&S pattern so We are locally bearish biased And we will be expecting a Further bearish move down Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by TopTradingSignals
1
XAUUSD | Institutional Sell Setup – OB + 79% Fib Confluence🪙 XAUUSD | Gold Sell Setup Based on Smart Money Concepts This is a classic example of how institutions lure in retail traders — tap the golden zone, reject hard, and leave a trail of liquidated longs. 🔍 1. Technical Breakdown Price aggressively climbed into a strong Order Block zone Rejection from the 70.5%–79% Fibonacci retracement area Broken ascending channel confirms shift in momentum Bearish BOS already occurred = Smart Money in control This zone (3332–3357) is a magnet for institutional sells. 🧱 2. Bearish Confluences 💀 OB Rejection: Previous up candle before the sharp drop 📐 Fib Overlap: 70.5–79% = premium zone for shorts 📉 Structure Shift: Channel break + bearish order flow ⚠️ No Candle Close Above OB: = market respecting supply 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: 3332–3357 (executed) Stop Loss: 3360 (above OB) Take Profit: 3120 zone This is a deep sell-side liquidity hunt. ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 📥 Entry: ~3345 🔒 SL: 3360 💰 TP: 3120 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:15 This is a "swing short with conviction" kind of setup, where patience = profit. 🔁 5. Key Confirmation Points Watch for lower lows and lower highs to continue Price closing below 3290 = full confirmation If Gold reclaims 3360 = setup invalidated 💬 Comment “Sniped Gold 🥷💰” if you took this short! 📌 Save this chart for OB + Fib zone study 🎯 Post your entry/exit levels — let’s compare setups
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Coffee Pullback or Opportunity?The COT report dated May 20, 2025, reveals a gradual cooling of speculative sentiment in the coffee market. Non-commercials (speculative funds and money managers), who had largely fueled the strong rally towards the 420 USX/lb highs, are now closing long positions (–2,599 contracts), though they still maintain a significantly positive net exposure (+43,300 net contracts). At the same time, commercials (industry operators such as roasters, exporters, and processors) have reduced both their long and short positions. However, the drop in short hedges (–4,103 contracts) is an important signal—it may suggest less need for downside protection at current prices, often an early sign of a potential market bottom. Total open interest has decreased by 4,406 contracts, signaling a phase of liquidation and consolidation, where traders are reducing exposure rather than initiating new positions. 📌 Fundamental conclusion: The market is undergoing a healthy reset following the Q1 2025 boom, with speculators stepping back and commercials cautiously optimistic. 📈 Seasonal Analysis Seasonal tendencies align well with the current technical outlook. May is historically a weak month, with negative average returns across most time frames (10y, 15y, 20y). However, from June—especially July onward, data shows a strong seasonal rebound, with July–August being statistically the best-performing period of the year for coffee. This is partly due to climate-related risks (Brazilian winter, frost risk) and harvest/logistics cycles in key producing regions. 📌 Seasonal conclusion: June may offer a strategic accumulation window ahead of the traditional summer coffee rally. 🧭 Technical Analysis (Daily) The KC1! daily chart clearly reflects a distribution and correction phase following the early March peak at 420 USX/lb. Price has broken below the 355–360 demand zone and is currently testing a key support area between 340 and 325, previously established as a demand base during January–February 2025. The medium-term trend remains bullish, but the market is now in a downward corrective channel, with lower highs and lower lows. The weekly RSI sits in a low-neutral range—not yet fully oversold, suggesting there may still be room for further downside, though the bulk of the correction may already be priced in. 📌 Technical conclusion: The market is undergoing a deep pullback within a broader uptrend and is approaching potential reversal zones. 🔎 Strategic Outlook The coffee market is in the midst of a cyclical and technical correction following its sharp Q1 2025 rally. The COT report reflects a rebalancing of speculative positioning, while commercials appear less aggressive on the short side. Seasonality favors a rebound starting June, and the technicals point to a potential long-entry zone around 340–325, attractive for medium-term positioning. ✅ Recommended Trading Setup Base scenario (medium-term long): Entry: Between 340 and 325 USX/lb (gradual accumulation) Stop Loss: Weekly close below 320 (bearish confirmation) Target 1: 390 (intermediate supply zone) Target 2: 410–420 (return to highs) Confluence: RSI support, COT shift, seasonal upside, technical demand zone Alternative scenario (bearish breakdown): Only if weekly closes below 320 This would open room toward 300–285 USX/lb 📌 Final Conclusion While short-term caution is warranted, current conditions offer attractive long re-entry opportunities for those who await confirmation around the 325–340 support area. The ideal setup would include: Weekly stabilization with higher lows Renewed speculative long positioning in COT Seasonal momentum kicking in from mid-June
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
Gold isn't breaking out — it’s breaking down.What we're seeing in gold right now is not a temporary pause — it's a calculated, smart money-driven transition from impulsive expansion into controlled redistribution. The rally from 3120 to 3357 wasn’t organic or trend-based — it was mechanical, steep, and uncorrected. And that’s the first red flag. When price travels that far without building any real base or demand, it’s often not aiming for continuation, but to reach a liquidity target. This was a liquidity run, not a sustainable breakout. Then comes May 24 — a pivotal moment. Price breaks above 3357, spikes volume +19% over average — but delivers a weak candle body. The next bar doesn’t confirm, doesn’t expand, doesn’t even push the high. Instead, we get a failed breakout followed by retreat. That’s textbook deviation — a classic trap where market makers dump inventory while retail rushes to chase the breakout. This happens inside the derivation area — that thin, deceptive range between 3357 and 3370. It’s where distribution is masked as strength. But price behavior reveals the truth: after tapping that zone, it didn’t hold. Price fell back inside the range. No retest. No follow-through. And most importantly — price has now closed beneath the anchored VWAP from May 13, shifting the control of the tape. Anchored VWAP matters — it's the average weighted cost of the dominant positioning from smart money. And once price falls below it and stays there, we know demand has dried up. Add to that: shrinking candle ranges, decreasing volume, soft closes — all signs of exhaustion. RSI has already pulled off from overbought levels, Stochastic is turning down, and ADX shows trend strength fading. But those indicators are just the shadow of what price already told us. We’ve lost structure. A lower high is forming. Price was rejected from the same zone that was previously supposed to be the breakout. It’s not consolidation anymore — it’s redistribution. The path forward is tactical and logical. Price is likely headed first toward 3275 — that’s the shallow liquidity pocket. From there, we might get a pullback to 3305–3315 — not a rally, but a retest of the old sell zone. That’s where another leg of short interest can build. Then comes 3250 — the bottom of the last structural block. If that fails to hold, gold opens the door to 3205–3215 — a historical volume shelf and the next real support. There’s no guessing here. The breakout failed. VWAP is broken. Momentum is gone. This isn’t the start of something higher — this is the start of the unwind. And while retail waits for 3400, smart money is already loading their next leg short.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades
2
EURUSD Mirror Market Concept – Retest Before Bullish Expansion 🔍 Analysis Summary: This EUR/USD setup is constructed using the Mirror Market Concept (MMC), which identifies price behavior patterns that tend to "mirror" across central zones or key support/resistance levels. The chart highlights multiple "Ellipse + Central Zone" regions that represent strong consolidation and price decision areas, reflecting symmetry in market reactions. 📈 Key Technical Insights: Central Zones & Ellipses: These are repeated zones where price action has shown symmetry in both accumulation and distribution phases. Watch how these ellipses mirror prior moves, indicating likely zones of reaction. Previous Target & Reversal Area : The market completed a leg to the previous target (around 1.1410), followed by a rejection from a major resistance zone, initiating a reversal. This aligns with the Mirror Market structure, where the move downward reflects the previous bullish leg. Support Level: A significant support zone has been marked near the 1.1275 level. Price action reversed from here, respecting this base and forming a reversal zone. Retesting Phase: After bouncing from support, the price is entering a retesting phase around the 1.1330 level (identified ellipse). This retest is critical—if held, it could trigger bullish continuation. Major BOS (Break of Structure): Once price breaks and sustains above the 1.1360–1.1380 region, it will confirm the BOS and pave the way toward the final Target Zone at 1.1450–1.1470. 🎯 Trade Plan Overview: Bullish Scenario: Look for confirmation of support near 1.1320–1.1330 during the retest. If price holds and forms bullish structure (e.g., higher lows, bullish engulfing), consider long setups targeting 1.1450. Bearish Invalidator: A breakdown and close below the support level at 1.1275 would invalidate the bullish bias and call for reevaluation of the setup. 🧠 Final Thoughts: This analysis reflects the mirror behavior of price and the market psychology around equilibrium zones. MMC provides a structured way to anticipate future price action by understanding how historical reactions unfold. Watch key zones and wait for confirmation before engaging.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
EURUSD Structural Analysis | Curve Breakout to Key Reversal Zone🔍 Structure Analysis: The EURUSD pair has been exhibiting classic smart money behavior following a reaccumulation phase beneath a curved resistance structure. This curve acted as a dynamic liquidity ceiling, engineered to trap breakout traders during early sessions and encourage early shorts — only to be invalidated later by institutional momentum. What we now see is a clean structural breakout, a shift in market sentiment, and a precision drive toward premium liquidity zones, where we expect reactions from institutional orders or profit-taking. 📐 Technical Breakdown: 🔹 1. Curved Resistance Breakout (Trend Manipulation Layer) The curve represents a multi-touch descending resistance line that was gradually compressing price. Multiple rejections created a false sense of bearish continuation, but in reality, smart money was accumulating positions under the curve. The final breakout was impulsive and occurred on elevated volume, breaking both the curve and a short-term bearish structure. 🔹 2. Bullish Market Structure Confirmation Higher highs and higher lows are now clearly established. After the curve break, the price pulled back slightly, respecting the new trendline support — a sign of retest behavior and continuation. The previous internal structure break was confirmed after a key swing high was violated, flipping the order flow to bullish. 🔹 3. SR Interchange + QFL Demand Zone The 1.11800–1.12200 zone held firm during the retracement, previously acting as a strong resistance and now a support flip. This zone coincides with a QFL-style accumulation base — a concept based on sudden dips into support where big orders are filled before sharp reversals. Wick rejections and candle closes show strong interest by buyers. 🔹 4. Trendline & Structure Alignment A clean ascending trendline is acting as dynamic support. Each touch on the trendline has been followed by bullish expansion — another indication of institutional order flow support. This trendline also aligns with internal FVGs (Fair Value Gaps), offering more confluence. 🔹 5. Liquidity Magnet: Next Major Zone The next key area is marked around 1.15500–1.15750, which is a previous structural high, order block, and likely liquidity pool for pending sell-side orders. This area is expected to act as a magnet, pulling price toward it before a potential reversal or redistribution phase begins. 📊 Trade Management Plan: Parameter Details Bias Bullish (Short-Term to Mid-Term) Entry Zones Retest of trendline or minor FVGs TP1 1.14500 (interim supply) TP2 (Main) 1.15500–1.15750 (major liquidity zone) SL Below 1.11800 (invalidates bullish idea) RR Target 1:2.5 to 1:3 depending on entry precision 🧠 Concepts Applied: Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Break of Structure (BOS) & Change of Character (CHOCH) Curve Manipulation / Compression SR Flip (Support-Resistance Interchange) QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) Trendline + FVG Confluence Liquidity Pool Targeting Volume Expansion Breakout Confirmation 🛎️ Watchlist Notes & Trade Expectations: Expect short-term pullbacks into the 1.13000–1.13200 zone for liquidity re-tests. Watch for reaction or sweep near 1.15500 — this is where short-term sellers may enter, and institutions may offload. If price holds above the trendline and consolidates near the high, a continuation leg to even higher targets (1.16500) is possible — depending on macro conditions. ✅ Conclusion: This EURUSD setup is a high-probability opportunity shaped by smart money behavior and deep structural context. The combination of the curve breakout, trendline strength, and liquidity targeting provides a clear roadmap for execution and management. Use this analysis as a framework — always confirm with price action and risk management aligned with your personal strategy.
Long
by GoldMasterTrades
XAUUSD 8H: This isn’t balance — it’s broadening distributionAt first glance, it may seem like gold is consolidating. In reality, price is unfolding inside a broadening formation — a structure where highs stretch higher, lows drop deeper, and real direction vanishes behind controlled volatility. This isn’t random noise. It’s Smart Money engineering a distribution phase under the cover of market indecision. And right now, the direction is forming clearly — downward. The key moment was the failed breakout above 3357 on May 24. Volume spiked 19% above average, but the candle body collapsed. That’s a textbook deviation — a classic liquidity grab. The next candle confirmed the failure by closing back below the level, and no bullish recovery followed. Instead, price printed a lower high around 3305–3315, failing to retest the top. And when price can’t go higher — it usually goes lower. Confirmation comes from the Anchored VWAP from May 13, which was broken cleanly and never retested. That’s a major shift in control — from buyer to seller. Now price trades below VWAP, with every bullish candle fading and every bearish reaction gaining strength. This is not trend continuation. This is exhaustion. Volume profile shows the Point of Control between 3297 and 3301 — and price sits well below it. The bulk of liquidity is now overhead. That zone between 3305–3315 is where Smart Money already sold once — and if price returns there, it becomes an ideal re-entry short zone, especially if followed by rejection candles or low-volume pushups. Targets are clean: → 3228 — first liquidity shelf. → 3164 — former impulse base. → 3084 — if breakdown accelerates. Everything lines up: deviation, failed breakout, VWAP lost, volume fading, lower highs forming. This isn’t a pause. This is a phase transition — and the market already voted.
TVC:GOLDShort
by TotoshkaTrades