Get started

Smartmoney

Massive GBP/USD Reversal Ahead? Head & Shoulders FormationGBP/USD is at a critical technical juncture following a sharp bullish impulse that pushed the pair above the 1.34 handle, printing a strong weekly bullish engulfing candle and breaking out of a multi-week consolidation zone. This move unfolded in a macro context where the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness, with Non-Commercial net long positions dropping drastically—from around 20,000 to less than 5,000 contracts. This shift points to a fading speculative appetite for the dollar, historically a leading indicator of upcoming corrective phases or broader declines in the DXY. On the flip side, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British Pound reveals that Non-Commercials (typically hedge funds and asset managers) remain net long on GBP, with a slight increase week-over-week. However, Commercials (generally institutions and hedgers) have aggressively built up a significant net short position—levels that in the past preceded major reversals on the pair. This divergence between speculators and institutional hedgers suggests short-term bullish potential, but with rising risk of exhaustion near current resistance levels. Adding fuel to this outlook is the retail sentiment: approximately 63% of retail traders are currently short GBP/USD, with an average entry price around 1.3021. This kind of retail crowd positioning, typically inefficient from a historical perspective, adds contrarian support for further upside, as long as price holds above the 1.3340 structure. From a seasonality perspective, June tends to be a mildly bullish-to-sideways month for GBP/USD, especially when looking at the 10- and 15-year seasonal averages. While the seasonal bias is not particularly strong, there’s also no statistical downward pressure this time of year, leaving room for technically-driven moves influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than macro patterns alone. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a steep rally capped by a large green candle on Monday, breaking cleanly through the 1.34 resistance zone. The price is now hovering inside a key supply area between 1.3499 and 1.3550—a historically reactive zone that has triggered major rejections in previous months. How price reacts here will likely shape the next major swing. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above 1.3550 would open the door for an extension toward 1.37–1.3750. Conversely, a sharp rejection followed by a break below 1.3412—and especially under 1.3340—would set the stage for a deeper correction toward 1.3170. The RSI is currently showing early signs of momentum loss, although no strong bearish divergence has emerged yet. This implies that the pair could still fuel another push higher before running out of steam—possibly forming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern if the rejection scenario plays out.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
GBPJPY At the Top? Massive Liquidity Grab📈 1. Price Action & Key Technical Levels (Daily Chart) Price reached a major supply zone between 196.0 and 197.0, showing clear rejection (weekly pin bar and a lower high structure relative to the previous peak). The long-term descending trendline acted as resistance again. A confirmed rising wedge pattern broke to the downside, with first target around 191.4, and extended target near 187.4 (key demand zone with historical confluence). Weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence vs price highs – an additional signal of bullish exhaustion. 📊 2. COT Data (as of June 3, 2025) GBP (British Pound) Net long positions increased by +30,371 contracts (Commercial + Non-Commercial). Non-Commercials: 103,672 long vs 68,457 short → net long +35,215 but the increase is relatively modest. Commercials are increasing both long and short positions, but the net delta supports medium-term GBP resilience. JPY (Japanese Yen) Net short worsened by -13,566 contracts. Non-Commercials are cutting longs and adding shorts → aggressive yen selling. Commercials remain heavily short (275,659 vs 100,151 long). ➡️ COT Conclusion: GBP remains structurally strong, but the JPY is now extremely oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical correction in favor of JPY (GBPJPY pullback). 📉 3. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short GBPJPY, with an average entry at 191.2. Current price is above 195.8 → a liquidity sweep above retail shorts may have already occurred. The order book shows a heavy sell cluster between 195.0–195.9 → potential zone of manipulation/liquidation. ➡️ Contrarian view: After sweeping liquidity above retail highs, we may now see downside pressure to clean out breakout longs. 📅 4. Seasonality June tends to be neutral to bearish: 5-year average: +0.45% (weak gain) 10- and 15-year averages: -1.24% and -1.30% Historically, the first 10 days of June often mark a local top, followed by a decline – consistent with the current price structure. 🧠 5. Macro-Technical Confluence The broader setup points to a distribution phase between 195.5–196.5, with high probability of a technical pullback toward 193.5–191.4 in the short-to-medium term. The yen's oversold conditions may ease temporarily, supporting a corrective GBPJPY retracement. Break below 193.5 would confirm the move toward 191.4 and eventually 187.4 – an area of institutional interest. 🔍 Trade Setup Summary (Bias: Bearish) Technical context: Short setup confirmed by structure break, divergence, and supply rejection. Macro/sentiment context: Supports a corrective pullback on the pair. Strategy: Look for intraday weakness below 195.0–194.5 → targeting 193.5, then 191.4. Invalidation: Daily/weekly close above 197.0.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
12
NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure) The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone. We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with: Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200 A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal 🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3) Commercials (Smart Money): +4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion Non-Commercials (Speculators): –2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance 📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials. 📆 3. Seasonality June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg) 10Y average still leans bullish ⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes 📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3. 📰 4. Macro Calendar High-impact USD week: CPI – Wed, June 11 PPI – Thu, June 12 These will be critical to: Validate the disinflation narrative Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov 📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises. ⚙️ Operational Outlook ✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation): 🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure ❌ Invalid below 21,350 🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion): 🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200 🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone 🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Price collapsed. I didn’t flinch. Here’s whyThat wick didn’t scare me — it confirmed the setup. Volume spiked, price swept an equal low, and printed the reaction I was waiting for. The logic: Clean FVG formed on the drop Price returned to rebalance Reaction from that FVG confirms Smart Money intent It’s not about chasing the reversal — it’s about understanding the anatomy of one. And that’s exactly what just unfolded here. Below price? An untouched EQ level. Above? A full inefficiency gap into 0.99. That’s the delivery map. Trade framework: Re-entry: Into the FVG zone (~0.825–0.807) SL: Below EQ (~0.79) TP1: 0.91 POC sweep Final objective: Full push into 0.99 This isn't hype. This is precision. You don't need magic indicators when price gives you the story in volume and imbalance. Final words: “I don’t chase the move. I identify where it started — and wait for it to return.”
Long
by SmartFlowst
You were warned. Now it’s runningThis was the second test into the FVG + 4H OB confluence. High volume candle. Wicking liquidity. And structure still intact. Why I stayed calm: Price didn't just drop — it delivered into a known rebalance zone. That 0.176–0.178 box was a magnet, not a mystery. The reaction came right on cue: Volume confirmed interest Structure stayed intact And the engine kicked in right after the sweep Now? The play isn’t about guessing the top. It’s about knowing where price is drawn — and why. Play-by-play logic: 4H OB provided the base FVG gave the imbalance Reaction zone created a clean entry TP target? +18% mapped to 0.21 I didn’t enter on emotion. I positioned based on structure. That’s why it’s already moving while others still think it needs “confirmation.” Final words: “You don’t need hindsight when your foresight is built on logic.”
Long
by SmartFlowst
Price returned. I was already waitingThis wasn’t a pullback — it was a reset. And Smart Money doesn’t chase price. It sets traps. This is one of them. Breakdown: SOL delivered into a confluence zone where multiple models align: Daily FVG overlaps perfectly with a 4H Order Block 0.5 fib retracement (141.82) tagging the midpoint of the prior expansion leg Volatility spike? Engineered. Not reactive. Retail is shaken. I’m composed. This is the zone you mark before price even gets there — because when it does, you don’t hesitate. Trade logic: Entry: 141.8–146.0 (inside D FVG + 4H OB) SL: Below the 0.618 fib / 130.8 invalidation TP1: 152.8 (0.382) TP2: 166.4 (0.236) Final draw: 188.4 — full inefficiency fill and premium rebalance This isn’t about hitting every level. It’s about understanding why these levels matter. Structure tells the story. The fib just refines the sentence. Final words: “Smart Money doesn’t trade the reaction. It trades the setup that creates it.”
Long
by SmartFlowst
EUR-CAD An Interesting Setup! Buy! Hello,Traders! EUR-CAD is trading in an Uptrend along the rising Support which now Confluences with the falling Support line as well so as the Pair was making a bearish Correction we will be expecting A bullish rebound from the Confluence area and a further Bullish move up Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
USDCAD Long – Wyckoff Spring PlaybookCause > Effect. Behavior > Breakouts. We just printed a classic Spring + Test setup. Here’s how the puzzle came together: 🔍 Accumulation Context: Market ranged quietly for hours – demand building below the surface. Spike down into previous demand zone with climax volume – the shakeout. Quick reclaim of the zone with bullish absorption signals the Spring. 📈 Execution Plan: Entry just above the spring low at 1.3617 Stop below spring at 1.3612 Targeting inefficiencies at 1.3645 and 1.3651 (prior supply pockets) 🎯 Why I Like This Setup: Structure: Matches Wyckoff Spring logic (Phase C → D transition) Volume: Shakeout came with high effort, followed by efficient reclaim Timing: Happens in a zone where other traders might still be stuck short > “In trading, the ones who recognize intent get in before confirmation.” This trade idea isn’t about being right — it’s about understanding behavior. I’m not reacting to candles. I’m tracking the motive behind them.
Long
by theeOperator90
CAD_CHF STRONG SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG| ✅CAD_CHF will be retesting a support Level soon around 0.5920 From where I am expecting a bullish reaction With the price going up but we need To wait for a reversal pattern to form Before entering the trade, so that we Get a higher success probability of the trade LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ 

 Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by ProSignalsFx
5