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EUR/USD is Loading a Breakout?!EUR/USD has posted an interesting bullish reaction following a controlled descent within a descending channel. After a brief break below a long-term ascending trendline, price established support within a clear demand zone between 1.1130 and 1.1170, closing the daily candle back above the key area. This structure suggests a possible phase of accumulation, especially given the presence of a strong lower wick and the defense of the highlighted yellow zone. Still, the pair remains within the descending channel, and the squeeze between the trendline and resistance at 1.1280 could become a decision zone. A daily close above 1.1280 would support bullish continuation and open the way to 1.1450. 🧠 Institutional Positioning (COT): Large speculators continue to favor the long side on the euro, with a noticeable increase in net long exposure. This confirms the accumulation narrative visible on the chart. Meanwhile, the USD shows a consistent decline in bullish positioning, adding weight to the case for a softer dollar — supportive of a potential EUR breakout. 📊 Retail Sentiment: Retail traders are slightly skewed to the short side (52% short), which is not extreme but does act as a contrarian input favoring bullish continuation — especially if the price breaks above dynamic resistance. 📅 Seasonality (May): Historically, May tends to be a weak-to-neutral month for EUR/USD over the 10–20Y horizon. However, recent years (last 2Y) show a bullish deviation from that trend, supporting the idea that any dips could offer opportunity rather than signal trend reversals. 🧭 Summary 📈 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.1130 🎯 Target Levels: • Key Resistance: 1.1280 • Extension Zone: 1.1450 🧠 Key Takeaway: EUR/USD is showing early signs of bullish reversal within a still-constrained technical structure. Demand rejection, institutional long bias, and retail short pressure all align for a potential continuation higher. However, a confirmed breakout above 1.1280 is crucial to validate the scenario.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
Gold Just Grabbed Liquidity Below a Key LowGold reacted sharply at a major structural level last week, sweeping liquidity below the previous weekly swing low. That move was immediately followed by a strong bullish rejection candle with a deep lower wick — signaling aggressive buyer absorption. The price also respected a long-term ascending trendline, which has acted as dynamic support since early March. Two demand zones are clearly identified on the chart (based on HTF imbalances and previous accumulation ranges), and price tapped the upper zone near 3,160 before bouncing. The bullish structure remains intact unless price closes below 3,080 on the weekly. Until then, the trendline and recent liquidity grab favor further upside continuation. 📉 COT Data Insight Gold Non-Commercials: Net long remains strong (238k long vs 76k short) New long contracts: +746 | Shorts: +2,034 However, a large drop in spread positions (-12,424) signals a tactical unwind in hedge fund exposure USD Index (DXY) Non-Commercials: Net long positions down significantly (-5,712) Softening dollar bias adds tailwind for gold in the short term 🧠 COT Takeaway Speculative interest continues to favor Gold, while USD positioning weakens — supporting the idea of a technical bounce and potential bullish continuation. 🧮 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian View) Retail traders are currently 54% short on XAU/USD — classic contrarian signal suggesting the path of least resistance remains to the upside. 📆 Seasonal Outlook (May Performance) Historically, May tends to be a neutral-to-weak month for gold based on 10- to 15-year data. However, in the last 2 years, May has delivered clear bullish seasonality, which reinforces the case for upward momentum after pullbacks. ✅ Summary 🔸 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish 🔸 Invalid if: Weekly close < 3,080 🎯 First Target: 3,280 – 3,320 🎯 Extended Target: 3,440 resistance zone 📌 Final Thoughts The technical reaction from demand, supportive COT structure, soft USD positioning, and contrarian sentiment all point toward potential continuation higher. As long as Gold holds above the 3,080 zone, the bulls remain in control.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
16
EUR/USD Loading for Takeoff? We got OB + Liquidity Combo.📊 EUR/USD 30-Min Smart Money Breakdown — May 15, 2025 Price is setting up for a high-RRR bullish reversal from a premium Smart Money zone — combining a textbook Order Block, Fibonacci golden zone, and uncollected Buy-Side Liquidity above. Let’s zoom into this sniper play 🎯👇 🧠 1. The Setup Recent bullish rally broke structure to the upside Current retracement taps deep into: ✅ 50–61.8% Fibonacci zone ✅ A confirmed Bullish Order Block (OB) Price currently pulling back for liquidity before an expansion move 🔍 2. Entry Strategy Entry zone: Between 1.11762–1.11599 (purple OB + fib confluence) Stop loss: Below 1.11500 (just under 61.8%) Target: 🔹 TP1 → 1.12283 (Buy-side Liquidity) 🔹 TP2 → 1.12930 (Weak High = clean liquidity pool) ➡️ This gives a solid 1:3+ RRR if managed well with confirmation 📉 3. Smart Money Logic Price is engineered to draw down into OB, liquidate early longs Then Smart Money steps in, pushing price upward into inefficiencies + liquidity Sell-side gets cleared, buy-side becomes the magnet ⚠️ 4. Caution Points Wait for bullish confirmation on the 5m–15m inside the OB zone Avoid early longs — let the trap complete! Monitor USD news or macro catalysts that could spike volatility This is how Smart Money traps are laid out: grab liquidity → rebalance price → expand into inefficiency zones. If you're trading SMC without waiting for the OB reaction, you’re just gambling with smart money’s leftovers. 🍽️💸 💬 Drop a “📈” if you're watching this OB level! 📊 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for daily sniper setups and liquidity-based trades!
Long
by ChartNinjas88
BTCUSD 1H | Liquidity Grab + FVG Play Before Bullish Expansion📊 BTC/USD 1-Hour Smart Money Outlook — May 15, 2025 Bitcoin is setting up for a classic SMC combo move — targeting sell-side liquidity before flipping bullish and running for the buy-side liquidity at ~$106K. Let’s break it down 👇 🧠 1. The Setup Price broke structure to the downside ✅ Heading into a liquidity sweep of the recent lows around $100,000 Major Fair Value Gap lies between $98,100–$96,800 This gap aligns with the 61.8–70.5% fib zone — a premium rebalance area for smart money 🔍 2. Expectations Short-Term Bearish into FVG → Sell-side liquidity gets swept Then strong bullish reversal targeting: 🔹 First target: $103,000 🔹 Final target: $105,787 (Buy-side liquidity + Weak High) Trade Idea: Long after FVG rejection confirmation SL below $96,800, TP up to $106K — insane RRR of 1:4+ ⚠️ 3. Risk Management Wait for a bullish reaction inside the FVG zone Protect capital if price closes below $96,800 → setup invalid Look out for NY session volatility and CPI/FOMC-driven fakeouts This is textbook Smart Money behavior: draw liquidity, rebalance price, and expand into inefficient price zones. If you're not trading with liquidity in mind — you're the liquidity. 🧠💸 💬 Comment “🚀” if you're long from the Fair Value Gap zone! 🎯 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for daily sniper setups and smart money breakdowns!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by ChartNinjas88
ETH/USDTAlt Market on Watch — All Eyes on ETH ⚠️ Despite a strong start to the week, some red flags are starting to show up on the horizon. The spotlight is on ETH — it’s the key to what’s next for the altcoin market. In the last update, I shared altcoin levels to work from, but right now ETH should be your primary reference. 📍 $2400 is a major zone — I’m watching for a reaction there to get aggressive on alt entries. ❌ If that zone doesn’t hold, we’re likely heading down to $2200–2100, possibly even $1900. No need to overexpose — I’m sitting mostly in cash, waiting for clear signals. 🚫 And most importantly — this is not a short setup (yet). Let’s wait for the new weekly open before making any big moves.
Long
by BITRAF_CRYPTO