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GBP/JPY in Trouble? Smart Money Rotates Into Yen📊 1. COT Analysis JPY (Japanese Yen): Non-Commercial Net Long: +54,615 – showing strong long accumulation since March. Recent Changes: Long: -5,319 Short: +1,235 ➡️ Mixed signals short-term, but overall net long positioning remains strong. Speculative funds are still heavily favoring the Yen, suggesting potential continued strength. GBP (British Pound): Non-Commercial Net Long: +51,634 (111,076 long – 59,442 short) Recent Changes: Long: +7,404 Short: -9,015 ➡️ Specs are still net long on GBP, but exposure has slightly decreased. The divergence with the Yen is narrowing. 🔎 COT Summary: Both currencies are being bought by speculators, but the JPY has shown more consistent long-term positioning. Net momentum appears to shift in favor of Yen strength, pointing to potential downside for GBP/JPY. 📅 2. Seasonality – June Historically, June is a weak month for GBP/JPY, especially over 20y, 15y, 5y, and 2y windows. Monthly average return is negative across all major historical timeframes (e.g. -1.2415 over 10 years). ➡️ Seasonality reinforces a bearish bias for June. 🧠 3. Retail Sentiment Short: 52% Long: 48% ➡️ Retail positioning is balanced, slightly skewed short. Not a strong contrarian signal, but also doesn’t support a bullish breakout scenario. 📉 4. Technical Analysis Current Structure: Ascending channel from mid-May → currently testing lower boundary. Key Zone: 195.600–196.520 is a major supply zone with multiple rejections. Recent Candle Action: Bearish pin bar + engulfing candle → strong rejection from resistance. Downside Targets: First: 193.076 Second: 191.439 Break of the channel would further confirm a trend reversal. ➡️ Price action supports a short scenario with high reward-to-risk toward lower zones.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
BTC Short | FVG Setup + RSI Filter | 18.06 Smart Money Concept | Intraday Trade | 1:2 RR 🔍 The setup: Today I was watching for a short opportunity. Price reached a key level and formed a bearish FVG — looked clean at first. But I held off entering because I noticed RSI divergence — a red flag I always consider when expecting a potential level break. 💡 Why it matters: RSI divergence often signals weakness in momentum. For me, it's a key filter that helps avoid fake breaks — this was a good example of how I apply it. 📈 What happened next: Price moved up to test the 1H FVG (zone #2) and formed another FVG slightly lower. That second one was my entry point for the short. 🎯 Target: I exited at a 1:2 risk-reward, which is my minimum. The day was ending, and I didn’t want to hold the position longer — I’m not convinced the down move would continue cleanly (possible wicks or traps). 🤔 Question to the community: How do you filter FVG entries? Do you also use RSI or wait for structure shifts? And what’s your outlook on BTC from here?
Short
by SimonCryptoShmel
1