SMC
EURUSD 22 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - ECB Lagarde speechThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook.
US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that failed and created a bullish INT Structure.
3️⃣
🔹As price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme, if we are going to continue bearish, this is the area that I prefer to be short from. Also note that after the Bullish iBOS, price pulled back to the INT Structure EQ (50%) but didn't mitigate the 4H demand and just reacted from the previous INT structure range.
🔹With the current PA, there is a high probability that price will take out the Bearish Swing High to fulfil the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. More LTFs development required for a clear direction.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹INT Structure turned bearish yesterday after failing to break the Bearish Swing Strong High.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bearish iBOS and swept the liquidity above the Strong INT High.
3️⃣
🔹As mentioned in the 4H analysis, with the current PA there is a high probability that the Swing High will be broken but still no confirmation and technical is all pointing for bearish moves.
🔹My technical expectations still bearish till we have a Bullish BOS.
Smart Money Strategy: Short Opportunity with EUR/JPY Smart Money Strategy: Opportunity with EUR/JPY at Key Fibonacci Levels
The EUR/JPY pair is currently facing downward pressure, trading around 161.10, as speculation mounts over a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). With market expectations nearing a 92% likelihood of a rate increase by the BoJ in their upcoming January meeting, this could push short-term borrowing rates to the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, bolstering the Japanese Yen.
Key Levels for Strategic Entry:
Optimal Short Entry :
Focus on the 162.103 level, where the pair may encounter significant resistance.
Fibonacci Reversal Points
: The 0.75 and 0.71 levels are more than technical markers; they are critical points where institutional investors—often referred to as the 'smart money'—typically engage. These levels are key for identifying potential shifts in market dynamics.
This trade is not just about capitalizing on market trends—it's about strategically positioning at a technically significant level to maximize the potential for profits.
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SOYBEAN at Key Resistance Level – Will Sellers Take Control?FOREXCOM:SOYBEAN has reached a significant resistance level. This level has consistently acted as a key area of interest where sellers regained control, leading to prior reversals. If the price action confirms a rejection, I anticipate a move downward toward the 1,030 level.
However, if the price successfully breaks and holds above the zone, this would invalidate the bearish outlook and could open the door for further upside. Traders should monitor price action closely at this critical resistance area.
Proper risk management is essential, given the possibility of price breaking higher. If this analysis resonates with you or you have a different perspective, feel free to discuss in the comments!
GOLD Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD broke the key
Horizontal level of 2726$
While trading in an uptrend
And the breakout is confirmed
So we are bullish biased and
After a potential correction
And a retest of the new support
We will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
Buy!
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NATGAS Rising Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS is trading in a
Rising opening wedge pattern
And the price will soon
Retest the rising support
Below so we are bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a move up
From the support line
Buy!
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NZD-CHF Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-CHF was trading
Beneath the falling
Resistance line but now
We are seeing a bullish
Breakout, pullback and a
Rebound so we are locally
Bullish biased now and we
Will be expecting a further
Local bullish move up
Buy!
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AUDCHF at Key Resistance: Will It Drop To 0.56714?OANDA:AUDCHF is at a significant resistance area that has consistently acted as a barrier for bullish momentum. The recent price action suggests a potential for sellers to step in and drive prices lower from this zone.
If rejection signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or upper wicks, appear, I expect a move toward 0.56714. A break above this resistance, however, could indicate a shift in market sentiment.
Traders should wait for confirmation before entering short positions and ensure proper risk management. If you have any thoughts or agree with this analysis, I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments!
Platinum – Potential Short Setup with RetestPlatinum is currently trading below a key resistance zone, following a breakdown from the ascending channel. The recent bearish momentum indicates the potential for a continuation lower if the price fails to reclaim the resistance zone.
If the price retests this zone and shows rejection signals—such as bearish wicks, engulfing candles, or decreased buying pressure—it would strengthen the case for a short trade. In this scenario, the next target for sellers would be the $926.94 support zone, where buying interest may re-emerge.
This setup aligns with the broader bearish structure following the channel breakdown. Traders should monitor price action closely at the resistance level for confirmation of rejection before entering short positions.
EURCAD at Major Resistance – Short Opportunity Ahead?OANDA:EURCAD is currently testing a significant resistance zone. This area has seen strong selling pressure, leading to notable bearish moves. The recent bullish push into this resistance zone suggests a potential for sellers to regain control.
A bearish confirmation, such as rejection candles, bearish engulfing patterns, or long upper wicks, would increase the probability of a downward move. If this scenario unfolds, the price could head toward the 1.49017 level.
Traders should remain cautious and wait for clear signs of selling pressure before considering short positions. Proper risk management is essential, given the possibility of a break above the resistance zone.
EURCAD Testing Key Resistance Zone - Short Setup PotentialOANDA:EURCAD is testing a significant resistance zone, marked by historical price rejections and strong supply on the 4H timeframe. Given the overextended move into resistance, we could see a reversal if the price shows clear signs of rejection. Look for bearish confirmation signals such as a pinbar, long upper wicks, or bearish engulfing candles. If sellers regain control at this level, I anticipate a move downward toward the 1.49110 level.
EURUSD 21 Jan 2025 - Intraday Analysis - German ZEWThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 21 Jan 2025 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook.
US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that failed yesterday with price creating a bullish INT Structure.
3️⃣
🔹As price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme, if we are going to continue bearish, this is the area that I prefer to be short from. Also note that after the Bullish iBOS, there will be a pullback required.
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish with more development on LTF to confirm.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹Price finally broken the range from Jan 16 and reached the bearish Swing Extreme forming Bullish INT Structure.
🔹There is probability that Swing High may be broken based on the Daily/Weekly requirements for pullback and the current market sentiment (Risk Off) as of US Tariffs announcement from Trump yesterday.
3️⃣
🔹My technical expectations is set to Bearish and looking for Shorts but I need to see a bearish iBOS before any executions.
EURCAD - Potential Sell From Resistance ZoneEURCAD is testing a major resistance zone that has previously led to significant bearish reversals. The recent bullish momentum into this area increases the likelihood of seller interest.
If bearish confirmation emerges, such as rejection wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or increased selling volume, I anticipate a move toward 1.48608. However, a breakout above this resistance could signal further bullish continuation.
Traders should remain cautious and wait for clear signals of rejection before taking positions. Agree with this analysis? Let’s discuss further in the comments section!
FRA40 at Critical Resistance Zone: Bearish Move Ahead?FX:FRA40 is currently trading within a significant resistance zone. This area has previously acted as a turning point, suggesting the potential for a bearish reversal if sellers regain control.
The current price action indicates that the market is testing this resistance zone, and any signs of rejection, such as bearish candlestick patterns or wicks signaling supply absorption, could confirm a potential move to the downside.
If the resistance holds, I anticipate a downward move toward the 7,573.08 level, which is a logical target for potential profit-taking.
AUDHUF Testing Key Demand Zone: Bullish Bounce Ahead?PEPPERSTONE:AUDHUF is currently trading within a significant demand zone, marked by historical price reactions and a concentration of buyer activity. This area has previously acted as a strong support level, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal if buyers regain control.
The current price action indicates the market is testing this demand zone, and signs of bullish momentum, such as bullish candlestick patterns or a higher low formation, could confirm a potential upward move.
If the demand zone holds, I anticipate a move toward the 248.570 level, which is a logical target for short-term bullish momentum.
AUD_USD WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅AUD_USD will be retesting a resistance level of 0.6300 soon
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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