SMC Precision Short on EURUSD | SMT + Liquidity Grab = Clean Set📉 EURUSD 15M | Smart Money Concept (SMC) Trade Idea
🔍 Market Structure & Bias:
- High Timeframe POI (1H): Price tapped into a 1H Supply Zone, indicating potential short setups aligning with HTF bias.
- Break of Structure (BOS):Clean BOS to the downside confirms market intent shifting bearish.
🧠 Smart Money Logic :
- Liquidity Grab: Price swept liquidity above the equal highs and immediately rejected the 1H supply zone.
- Refinement: On the 15M, an entry block (OB) formed right after the SMT
- Mitigation: Price mitigated a lower timeframe demand and then gave an impulsive move down confirming intent.
- Entry: Entered short at the mitigation of the refined 15M supply zone.
- Stop Loss: Above the recent high (liquidity sweep).
- Target:
TP1:At the internal liquidity low (marked green @ 1.13152).
TP2:Final target at external liquidity below swing low @ 1.12637
Trade Details :
- 📍 Entry: 1.1372
- 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.1391
- 🎯 Take Profits:
TP1: 1.13152
TP2: 1.12637
Thanks for your time..
SMC
Why does it always go against you? You might be new to trading, you may have several years of experience. But, where a lot of people still seem to go wrong is in not realising the relationships.
I have posted hundreds of educational posts here on Tradingview from cartoons, trying to simplify techniques through to market relationships between technical systems such as Elliott Wave and Wyckoff.
Many new traders fall foul of social media posts covering "SMC - Smart Money Concepts" and are not seasoned enough to appreciate what or why these can work for some and not for others.
You have Elliott Wave traders, there is a saying along the lines of "if you put 10 Elliott traders in a room searching for a wave count you will come out with 11 different answers"
This isn't to say Elliott doesn't work, nor Smart Money.
The market seeks liquidity, it forms seemingly complex patterns that humans try to make sense of. We are great at that, seeing patterns even if they are not there. - Look, there's an upside-down butterfly 1.618 extension!
First, you need to appreciate Elliott Wave counts on smaller timeframe are pointless, especially in the age of algo's and bots. However, sentiment on the larger timeframes can't really be spoofed.
In this first image; you can see a market wave that is straight out of a textbook.
Let's also add some Wyckoff; if you were to visualise this - Wyckoff schematics would be visible on smaller timeframes, the Green boxes represent accumulation and the Red show distribution.
Let's overlay and Elliott Wave count -
Take that to the next level, this count is only part of a higher fractal count.
How does this fit into smart money concepts? well, it's more like - How does Smart Money fit into this?
Elliott waves and Wyckoff have been around for over 100 years. Many of the techniques shown on YT video's today can be traced back to these older concepts.
Now, if you can see how a 1-2 EW count pushes up for a 3. You can zoom in again and start to see what to expect when trading using SMC.
In this image you can see a drop, then a gap as price pushes back up (I haven't bothered drawing wicks for simplicity assume their inside the box)
Many traders would now anticipate a move that looks something like this.
Only to see price do this
Yeah - you're not the only one!
The next issue is where and how Supply and Demand is drawn.
Ok, the gap didn't hold, it must be the demand level there. GO AGAIN!!!
How did that play out? Trade 1, Trade 2 =
What about now?
Price holds the support
This time you are afraid to go in. Then one of two things happens.
1)
Or
2)
In the first image, we can see a sweep of prior liquidity and that creates momentum for a move up. In the second image, price simply melts away.
This is an easy fix. It all comes down to understanding what the charts are trying to tell you.
People love to talk about how "Smart Money" is the banks and institutional players - how they are playing against you on every click of the button.
The truth is, most people don't understand the market.
When larger players enter the market, the can leave a pretty obvious footprint. In addition to that - they leave behind orders they had but were unable to fill. These orders they will be defended with even more buying or selling (if they need to), and this is the premise for a rally and pullback or a drop to pullback.
Now, visualise a 1-2 Elliott Wave move. Why do you think 2 often comes back so deep?
What would you expect the move from 2-3 to do?
Powerful push, yes?
In this image, the move that created demand is simply the opposing colour candle before the power play. The significant move pushed up (showing institutional involvement). Hence, a location they will likely defend.
In addition to the push up, they pushed with so much money - it created a natural gap.
This type of example doesn't always have to be a power play 1-5 up, it could be visualised on pullback moves too.
Here's a great example recently on Euro.
The demand candle 'buy before the sell" is clearly targeted on the way up. Price fails to close above it, drops, goes back to retest - sweeps and drops. If you were to zoom in you will see on smaller timeframes evidence of a Wyckoff schematic with a UTAD.
Add a volume profile there.
As the price breaks above, after it's pullback you can see an acceleration in price and of course the area has the PoC.
Back to where people go wrong.
They will see this GAP created and assume price will come back here to reject and go. However, look closer and the demand that started the move is very near that gap.
Where is the juicy liquidity? PoC is another little clue.
Let's take this to another level.
In this image I have a range, using the prior high just to give the example in this post.
We are in an uptrend = we just broke the high, we expect a Pullback. Where would that likely target?
Zoom in again. This time I have added a fixed range volume tool.
What do you know?!
Anyways, once you get a handle on the bigger picture and understand the relationships, you can zoom into any timeframe you like - the game is always the same.
Have a great week all!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
GBP_NZD SWING LONG|
✅GBP_NZD dropped to
Retest a horizontal support
Level around 2.2200 and we
Are already seeing a bullish
Rebound so as we are bullish
Biased further growth
Is to be expected
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CHF_JPY GROWTH AHEAD|LONG|
✅CHF_JPY made a retest
Of the horizontal support
Around 172.500 and we are
Already seeing a powerful
Rebound so we are bullish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NZD-JPY Short From Falling Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-JPY is going up
And will soon hit a falling
Resistance line from where
We will be expecting a
Local bearish pullback
And a move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAUUSD Play: Buy the Dip, Sell the Rip Gold (XAUUSD) Tactical Play: Intraday Long into 4H Premium, Then Position for Higher Timeframe Short
Higher Timeframe (4H + Daily Context) :
1. Daily Chart Bias :
Long-term bullish trend, but now expecting a mean reversion (correction) toward long-term averages (discount area).
2. Current Behaviour :
Price has aggressively rallied over the past weeks, but now it's likely moving into a larger correction phase.
3. 4H Structure :
- 4H Demand Zone (around 3,250–3,300) is still holding — price showed strong reactions after tapping it.
- 4H overall flow shifted bearish after a BOS, but internal structure inside 4H suggests a pullback toward premium levels.
Key Supply Zones Above:
• First Supply : 3,380.962 (4H + 15M alignment)
• Second Supply : 3,410.365 (strong 4H supply)
Internal Structure (15M) :
Current Observations:
1. 15M structure showed a CHoCH to the upside after tapping into the 4H demand — clear internal strength.
2. Entry zone marked in 15M purple zone (small demand refinement).
Expectation:
Price will retrace a little, tap the 15M purple zone, then push upward toward higher liquidity pools.
Targets for the Long Trade:
• First TP : The recent liquidity highs around 3,380.962 (first 4H supply).
• Second TP : 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG) closer to 3,410.365.
Thanks for your Time..
GBP_USD SWING SHORT|
✅GBP_USD has retested a key resistance level around 1.3400
And as the pair is already making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the demand level below at 1.3228 is likely
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR-USD Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is
Making a bearish correction
So after it hits the horizontal
Support area around 1.1280
We will be expecting a
Bullish move up on Monday
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SILVER Local Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in a local
Uptrend and the price made
A retest of the horizontal
Support level around 32.83$
From where we will be
Expecting a rebound and
A move up on Monday
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
ETHUSD: Strong Growth Ahead! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse ETHUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.800.9 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.828.4.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
BTCUSD: Will Go Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse BTCUSD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 94,137.25Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 94,804.43.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD WILL GO FURTHER UP|LONG|
✅GOLD fell again to retest the support
But it is a strong key level
So as we are seeing a bullish
Rebound already I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bullish rebound and a move up
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
CRUDE OIL Move Down Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USOIL was making a
Bullish correction but
It is in the downtrend
Overall, so as the price
Is hovering beneath the
Horizontal resistance
Of 64.80$ from where
We will be expecting a
Local bearish correction
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBP-JPY Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-JPY keeps growing
From the lows just as we
Expected but the pair will
Soon hit a horizontal resistance
Of 192.500 and from there
A local bearish pullback
It likely to follow
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
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DAX WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅DAX has been growing recently
And the index seems locally overbought
So as the pair is approaching a horizontal resistance of 22,444
Price decline is to be expected
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBP_CHF CORRECTION AHEAD|SHORT|
✅GBP_CHF has retested a nice key resistance level of 1.1100
And as the pair is already making a bearish pullback
A move down to retest the demand level below at 1.0950 is likely
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bullish Setup on Gold: Correction hints continuation opportunityOANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, signaling strong bullish momentum. The price has consistently formed higher highs and higher lows, which aligns with the continuation of the uptrend. The recent pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the overall uptrend , allowing the market to potentially reset before continuing its upward trajectory within the ascending channel.
This pullback is offering a potential re-entry point for buyers, if key support levels hold. This would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 3,680 price, which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary.
As long as the price remains above the support zone, the bullish outlook stays intact. However, a failure to hold above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the channel’s lower boundary.
NZD-CHF Will Fall! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-CHF went up last week
And has almost recovered
The dramatic slaughter
Which happened earlier
But then the pair touched
The horizontal resistance
Of 0.5000 which is a strong
Round number and immediately
Made a pullback which means
That the bears are strong near
The level and so we are locally
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a local
Bearish correction on Monday
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NG1!: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NG1! together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 2.951 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3.042 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
NI225: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 35,720.94 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
USOIL: Bears Are Winning! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse USOIL together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 63.133 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 62.366..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
XRP - Bulls Preparing to Push Towards $2.50XRP has maintained a bullish tone after completing a significant gap fill, currently consolidating around $2.18. The previous impulsive move left behind an unmitigated imbalance below, suggesting that the market could be preparing for a controlled retracement. The overall structure remains bullish, but a corrective dip into key demand zones would align with healthy price development before the next leg higher.
Imbalance Structure and Retest Expectation
During the rally from the sub-$2.00 range, XRP formed a sharp move that created an inefficiency between approximately $2.05 and $2.12. This gap between buyers and sellers indicates that liquidity was left behind, often acting as a magnet for price.
Currently, XRP appears to be positioning itself to retest this imbalance, refilling orders and potentially gathering the momentum needed for a stronger continuation. I expect price to sweep into this zone, likely finding responsive buyers as it rebalances the inefficiency and revisits previous structural points of interest.
Reaction Zone and Bullish Confirmation
The primary area of interest lies firmly within the $2.05 to $2.12 range. A reaction from this zone, confirmed by strong bullish price action such as a higher low formation or a bullish engulfing candle, would validate the setup for further upside.
Following the retracement and bounce, the immediate objective will be a clean break above the $2.30 resistance. This level has acted as a cap on recent price action and represents a key liquidity threshold. A decisive move through this resistance would open the path toward higher targets, confirming the strength of the new impulsive phase.
Upside Target Projection
My upside target for this trade idea is located at $2.47. This level coincides with a previous high and clusters near the upper boundary of visible supply zones on the higher timeframes. Reaching this target would represent a continuation of the broader bullish structure while also completing a logical expansion leg relative to the recent price range.
Risk Management and Invalidation
The bullish bias remains valid as long as XRP holds above the lower boundary of the imbalance zone, around $2.05. A sustained breakdown below this level, particularly if accompanied by strong bearish momentum, would invalidate the idea, signaling that a deeper retracement is unfolding.
Until such invalidation occurs, the approach remains to monitor the retracement into the key demand zone and assess the strength of the subsequent reaction for potential long entries.
Conclusion
XRP is showing strong structural signs of bullish continuation but may first revisit the unfilled imbalance below. A clean reaction from this zone, followed by a break above $2.30, would likely set the stage for a rally into the $2.47 target. Patience is key in awaiting the retest and confirming bullish intent before execution.
___________________________________
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NZD_CHF MOVE DOWN AHEAD|SHORT|
✅NZD_CHF is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above of 0.5000
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 0.4892
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.