SMCI
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Faces Securities Fraud LawsuitSuper Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) is navigating turbulent waters as the company faces a class action lawsuit alleging violations of federal securities laws. The Schall Law Firm, a national shareholder rights litigation firm, has filed a lawsuit against Super Micro for potential violations of Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as well as Rule 10b-5. The litigation involves accusations of misleading investors and possibly inflating financial figures. Shareholders who purchased SMCI securities between August 10, 2021, and August 26, 2024, are urged to contact the law firm before the October 29, 2024, deadline.
Despite the legal headwinds, Super Micro’s stock is making waves ahead of a highly anticipated 10-for-1 stock split, which is scheduled to take effect after the closing bell on September 30, 2024. On the technical side, the stock has rebounded by 4% in recent trading, signaling renewed investor interest. However, the company has lost nearly half of its value over the past three months, weighed down by disappointing fiscal Q4 earnings and allegations of “accounting manipulation” by short seller Hindenburg Research.
Legal Troubles and Market Sentiment
The class action lawsuit represents a major challenge for Super Micro Computer as it grapples with accusations that could severely damage investor confidence. Violations of securities law can lead to significant penalties, reputational damage, and a prolonged legal battle, all of which could negatively affect the company’s stock price.
Adding to these troubles is Hindenburg Research’s scathing report, which alleges that the company engaged in improper accounting practices, contributing to the stock's volatility in recent months. This report has stirred skepticism among some investors, although others remain focused on Super Micro’s long-term potential, particularly in the fast-growing artificial intelligence (AI) server market.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
Despite these setbacks, NASDAQ:SMCI stock is attempting to recover from its sharp decline and has recently shown some signs of life. On Monday, the stock rose by 1.78%, trading at a relative strength index (RSI) of 43, indicating that it is emerging from an oversold condition, but still showing some weakness. The RSI remains below 50, suggesting that NASDAQ:SMCI is still working to overcome bearish momentum.
SMCI’s price movement has been oscillating within a descending broadening wedge formation since reaching its all-time high in March 2024. This pattern is often viewed as a bullish reversal signal once a breakout occurs, but so far, the stock has struggled to maintain upward momentum. The lower trendline of the wedge around $357 has held as key support in recent weeks, and a failure to defend this level could send shares tumbling toward $230, where previous troughs were established between August and October of last year.
On the upside, the stock faces significant resistance around $700, a level that aligns with the 200-day moving average. A breakout above this resistance could trigger a rally toward $975, a price level that corresponds with several swing highs from earlier in the year.
AI Server Demand and Innovation
While Super Micro (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) grapples with its legal issues, the company still holds substantial promise as a first mover in AI server infrastructure. The demand for AI server technology, particularly liquid cooling rack systems, is expected to surge as artificial intelligence applications grow. This market opportunity has led analysts at Needham to issue a “buy” rating for SMCI, with a price target of $600, which represents a potential upside of 31% from the stock's current price of $457.27.
Super Micro’s expertise in high-performance computing solutions positions it well to capitalize on the rising demand for AI servers. The company's AI-focused products, including its liquid cooling rack systems, are seen as cutting-edge technology that could play a crucial role in addressing the growing data needs of AI workloads.
The Path Forward: Legal Risks vs. Market Potential
As SMCI prepares for its stock split and navigates its legal battles, investors will be watching closely to see how the company balances the risks of the lawsuit with its promising opportunities in the AI server market. The ongoing legal challenges could weigh on the stock in the short term, but the company’s innovative technology and growing demand for AI infrastructure offer long-term growth potential.
For investors, key technical levels such as $357 and $700 will be important markers for determining whether the stock can regain its footing or continue to slide. With the stock split and lawsuit on the horizon, Super Micro Computer remains a stock to watch closely in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) finds itself at a critical juncture. The class action lawsuit for potential securities fraud, coupled with accusations from Hindenburg Research, presents significant risks. However, the company’s forward-looking focus on AI servers and liquid cooling systems provides a compelling case for long-term growth. As the stock split nears and legal proceedings unfold, investors should keep a close eye on both the technical price levels and any updates on the lawsuit, as these factors will heavily influence SMCI’s trajectory in the near future.
Is NVDA the catalyst for the market?NVDA just had a bearish crossover of the 20 & 50 MA (Daily chart)
Last time we saw this bearish moving average formation was in early August.
NVDA proceeded to fall sharply in the coming days.
All eyes on the market leader. All eyes on the QQQ.
Will the Q’s be the demise of SPY?
If Nvidia sees anymore weakness you can be sure it will have other semis following suit.
Risk to reward in the near term is clear.
SMCI Bottom and Christmas Rally To ComeLight Fundamental:
It is a stock called SMCI (or Super Mico Computer). It is a US company that makes super powerful computers and servers. The world needs servers to help run things like big websites, apps, and AI. The stock price fell by half. So, it is selling at a discount for what it is really worth. So, it is a good chance to buy it.
Technicals:
Gartley-like pattern
diagonal support
engulfing bullish pattern with d3 volume and volume confirmation
a-b-c completion at a 78.2% fib pullback
Entry is above the weekly engulfing bullish candle at 475.44.
Target is, tentatively, 1500.
Note: preparing for either an election rally or a Christmas rally in stocks
Article Title: Is AI Just Hype?In the whirlwind of AI's rapid ascent, a critical question emerges: Is the hype surrounding AI justified, or are we witnessing a bubble fueled by inflated valuations and limited innovation? Let's delve deep into the AI industry, separating the signal from the noise and providing a sobering reality check.
The Super Micro Cautionary Tale
The financial woes of Super Micro Computer serve as a stark warning. Despite the soaring demand for AI hardware, the company's internal challenges highlight the risks of investing solely in market enthusiasm. This case underscores the importance of **industry openness** and **due diligence** in the face of AI's allure.
A Landscape of Contrasts
The broader AI landscape is a tapestry of contrasting narratives. While pioneers like DeepMind and Tesla are pushing the boundaries of AI applications, a multitude of companies are capitalizing on the hype with products lacking substance. This proliferation of **AI hype** has created a toxic environment characterized by inflated valuations and a lack of substantive innovation.
Market Dynamics and Future Prospects
As the market for AI hardware matures, saturation and potential price drops loom. NVIDIA's dominance may be challenged by competitors, reshaping the industry landscape. The future of AI, however, lies in the development of more sophisticated systems capable of collaboration and learning. The integration of **quantum computing** could revolutionize AI, unlocking solutions to complex problems that are currently beyond our reach.
Conclusion
The AI industry is a complex landscape, filled with both promise and peril. While the hype surrounding AI may be tempting, it's imperative to scrutinize each company's core innovation and value. As the market matures and competition intensifies, those who can deliver **real value** and **technological advancements** will ultimately prevail. The Super Micro case serves as a stark reminder that in the realm of AI, substance, not hype, is the true currency of success.
SMCI to get back up to 1000$ ?SMCI has an awfully similar chart to PLTR, both of them hit all time highs, and then crashed. Smci is now at its all time lows and is going to stay there for a bit. PLTR on the other hand, did hit an all time high and also fell. But, it has recovered and is on track to hit all time highs again. I think that SMCI is going to trace the chart of PLTR and go back to around 1000$-900$. Both companies had a big boom and at the top, were overvalued, and came crashing down. NVDA might be experiencing the same.
Technical Analysis of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)Upon analyzing the stock SMCI , we observe a significant turning point starting in 2022, following a long period of sideways movement where the stock struggled to break above the $40 level.
After this prolonged sideways phase, the stock broke out with a clear upward trend, highlighted by the ascending trendline (green), characterized by higher highs and higher lows.
Following a year of gains, the stock entered a consolidation phase but then broke out again to the upside with strength, accompanied by a substantial increase in volume.
After reaching a peak in March 2024, the stock began a downward phase that is still ongoing.
Potential long entry points, where the stock might bounce or change trend direction, are found in the following two support areas:
Support area S1;
The POC 1 area.
If the stock begins to rally again, it will be crucial to monitor its behavior as it approaches the descending trendline (green), which could serve as a more conservative initial target.
More ambitious targets are POC 2 and resistance R1, both within a price range of $900 to $1,000.
Is there an AI bubble around the corner?Are semi conductors forming a rounded top or will they bounce on the trend support line? If you are even asking yourself if this is a serious question you are probably already late. get your calls asap. don't wait for the trend line support bc semi conductors are leading the way into AI. looking at the 265 calls sept 27 at the open on monday...
Is SMCI a buy? SMCI has lagged NVDA and many other semis.
Were now approaching a critical area...its make or break!
positive Daily divergence provides some hopes that were close to a near term bounce however after today semiconductor selloff the whole complex was shattered.
The fact that SMCI remained green while NVDA was down 10% should be a small win in itself...
The question is can it hold and build on this?
I do think its better positioned for a long than most semis.
No confirmed technical breakdown has occurred yet
SMCI This is honestly the last stand.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) suffered yet another brutal sell-off following the announcement of a delay in filing its 10-K annual report. This may prove to be a catastrophic one as technically not only did it fail exactly on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but also saw the stock test the bottom of its multi-year parabolic support, the Higher Lows Zone since the week of July 05 2022.
This was basically the last time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) got tested with the current week coming the closest since then. The 1W MA100 last broke during the unexpected COVID flash crash in March 2020, so technically it is the stock's longest Support. If it fails to hold and SMCI closes a 1W candle below it, the long-term parabolic growth pattern is invalidated and we will risk testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at a price potentially around $250.00.
If on the other hand the 1W MA100 holds (and we will need the news sentiment to drastically reverse in order to achieve that, something that currently can't be seen on the horizon), then we can see another +400% long-term rally, in which case we estimate a Target around $2000, the stock's next critical psychological growth level.
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SMCI Stock Plunges Amid Delayed 10-K Filing and AllegationsSuper Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) faced a turbulent week, with its stock plunging 25.8% after the company announced a delay in filing its annual report on Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This announcement came just a day after Hindenburg Research, a prominent short-seller, accused the company of accounting irregularities and other potential compliance failures, sparking investor concern and a sharp market reaction.
Super Micro Computer Delays 10-K Filing
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI), a key player in the data center industry, stated that it needs additional time to complete its assessment of internal controls over financial reporting for the fiscal year ending June 30. The company plans to file a Notification of Late Filing on Form 12b-25 but did not provide a clear timeline for the completion of its 10-K filing. The delay has raised alarm among investors, as timely financial reporting is crucial for maintaining market confidence and transparency.
The delay also coincides with a critical report from Hindenburg Research, which accused Super Micro of "glaring accounting red flags, evidence of undisclosed related party transactions, sanctions and export control failures, and customer issues." Although the report lacks concrete details, it has contributed to heightened uncertainty and volatility in SMCI's stock.
Market Reaction and Analyst Responses
The market responded swiftly to the news, with NASDAQ:SMCI stock dropping by 25.8% to $406.33 in afternoon trading, its most significant decline since 2020. This sharp drop follows a period of strong performance for the stock, driven by investor enthusiasm for the company's role in supporting AI-driven data center infrastructure.
Analyst opinions are divided. CFRA Research analyst Shreya Gheewala downgraded her rating on SMCI stock from "buy" to "hold" following the Hindenburg report, citing concerns over potential reputational damage and delayed financial reporting. Gheewala also lowered her price target from $729 to $454, reflecting the increased risk associated with the company.
Conversely, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee maintained an "overweight" or "buy" rating on the stock, with a price target of $950. Chatterjee emphasized that while Super Micro may have areas for improvement in governance, transparency, and investor communication, these deficiencies do not necessarily indicate wrongdoing. He believes the company's recent growth and market positioning remain strong, particularly given the demand for AI server infrastructure.
Potential Benefits for Competitors
The negative sentiment around Super Micro (NASDAQ: SMCI) could present an opportunity for its competitors. According to Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani, Dell Technologies (NYSE: DELL) is well-positioned to capitalize on any market share losses suffered by Super Micro in the AI server segment. Dell, a major player in the industry, could benefit as customers and investors seek alternatives amid Super Micro's current challenges.
Impact on Leadership and Wealth
The turmoil has also significantly impacted the wealth of Super Micro's CEO, Charles Liang. Liang, who co-founded the company with his wife Sara Liu in 1993, saw his net worth collapse by 66% from a high of $9 billion in March to $3.1 billion. Despite this dramatic decrease, Liang’s fortune remains up by about $1 billion for the year, reflecting the volatile nature of tech stocks and investor sentiment.
Looking Forward: Uncertainty and Opportunity
While the delayed 10-K filing and the allegations from Hindenburg Research have caused immediate setbacks for Super Micro Computer, the company’s long-term prospects remain uncertain. The market reaction underscores the importance of transparency and effective communication with investors. Super Micro must now focus on restoring confidence by addressing these concerns and providing clarity regarding its financial reporting and internal controls.
Meanwhile, rivals like Dell stand to benefit from any fallout, potentially gaining market share as Super Micro navigates this challenging period. As the situation unfolds, all eyes will be on how Super Micro handles these issues and whether it can regain its footing in a highly competitive market.
SMCI to $300? NASDAQ:SMCI delays their 10-K filing for FY2024.
The company said that additional time is needed 'to complete the assessment of its internal controls over financial reporting.'
Delaying the filing, especially right after Hindenburg’s accusations, raises serious red flags.
A $300 target seems like a genuine downside.
Disclaimer : This post should NOT be construed as investment advice and is meant for learning purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments.
SMCI Short-term buy opportunity within its corrective Channel. Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the March 08 2024 High. Even though the trend on a multi-year basis is bullish, short-term investors should have this pattern in mind.
Even on the shorter term though, the stock has managed to price a new Lower Low (August 08) at the bottom of the Channel Down and started its new Bullish Leg. Today's low opening has served as the first technical Higher Low on the Bullish Leg, potentially similar to the May 01 2024 Higher Low of that Channel Up.
The 1D MACD has already completed a Bullish Cross, as on May 06 and naturally the next Target is a Higher High above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. We are aiming for $750.00 short-term.
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SMCI broke the daily consolidation.NASDAQ:SMCI broke the tight daily consolidation to the downside today, confirming a short entry at $600 after losing daily demand. I will keep it on watch tomorrow with any weakness in NASDAQ:SMH and NASDAQ:QQQ for a potential continuation play down to the next daily demand.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Awaiting the Final Leg DownWe are considering a bullish scenario for SMCI, but it's not time to act just yet. We continue to believe that we are still in Wave (2) and that one more leg down is needed before we can see a surge higher, potentially breaching the all-time high at $1,229. Although the stock has already retraced more than 60% since reaching this ATH, we think there's still room for a bit more downside.
We believe we are in Wave C of the ABC corrective movement, and typically, this Wave C contains a five-wave structure (in this case, moving downward). This five-wave structure hasn't fully played out yet, as you can clearly see. Even though a lot of longs have been opened at $512, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, we believe this is just Wave ((iii)). We're not looking to short this stock but are instead waiting to see if our analysis holds true so we can go long once we have more clarity on the ending of Wave ((iv)). This will help us better determine the end of the overarching Wave (2).
SMCI rebounding on its 2-year Support Zone. $2000 next stop.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) is on its strongest 1W green candle since May 22 2023, recovering the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was broken last week amidst the general market panic on a potential economic slowdown.
This rebound happens to take place just inside the 2-year Higher Lows Zone that started back in July 2022. The ultimate Support, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) is exactly on that Zone's bottom and as long as it holds, we will stay bullish on SMCI long-term. Even the 1W RSI marginally broke below its 2-year Support Zone, but immediately recovered it.
As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg (green Channel Up) to start. Every single one of the previous Legs of this 2-year pattern has been higher than the previous, so since the last rally completed a +344.40% rise, we expect at least a repeat of this. Our long-term Target is $2000.
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Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) Plummet 20% on Weak Earnings ReportSuper Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ), once a darling of the AI investment world, is experiencing a dramatic downturn. The company's stock plummeted after a disappointing earnings report revealed a significant margin squeeze, casting a shadow over its previously rosy outlook.
The AI gold rush had propelled Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:SMCI ) to new heights, with its shares more than doubling in 2024. Investors were betting big on the company's ability to capitalize on the soaring demand for AI servers. However, the recent decline has raised serious questions about the company's long-term prospects.
A Perfect Storm
SMCI's troubles stem from a confluence of factors. Firstly, the rapid shift to more expensive AI chips has eroded profit margins. The company's attempt to lower prices to compete with rivals like Dell and HP has exacerbated the issue. Secondly, supply chain challenges and component shortages have added to the cost pressures.
While the company maintains an optimistic long-term outlook, the immediate future appears bleak. Analysts warn that the stock's lofty valuation, relative to peers like Dell, makes it particularly vulnerable to market volatility.
Technical Analysis: A Bearish Outlook
SMCI's stock price has broken down from a descending triangle pattern, a bearish technical indicator. The stock is now trading below its crucial 200-day moving average, signaling a potential long-term trend reversal.
Investors will be closely watching key support levels at:
$496: Potential buying interest could emerge around this level, which would fill a gap from January’s impulsive move higher.
$357: Another support level where the stock may find a horizontal line connecting past swing highs.
$260: A significant correction could lead to support around this trendline, linking June 2023 highs with levels from August to December 2023.
What's Next for Super Micro?
The AI market remains undeniably promising, and SMCI's position as a key player in the industry cannot be ignored. However, the company must address its margin issues and navigate the challenges of the evolving AI landscape to regain investor confidence.
As the dust settles from the earnings report, investors will be scrutinizing SMCI's actions to mitigate the margin squeeze and its ability to maintain its competitive edge. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the company's long-term success hinges on its ability to adapt and overcome these hurdles.
Will Super Micro be able to rebound from this setback, or is this just the beginning of a more prolonged decline?
Earnings Watch: August 6th Airbnb (ABNB 🏠)
The travel accommodation giant is expected to report an EPS of 0.91 and revenue of 2.73B. With a solid beat rate of 85%, can Airbnb surpass expectations? Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.98 and revenue of 2.48B.
Fortinet (FTNT 🔒)
Fortinet is projected to deliver an EPS of 0.41 and revenue of 1.40B. Holding a beat rate of 71%, investors are keen to see if they can maintain their streak. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.38 and revenue of 1.29B.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI 💻)
The company is set to announce an EPS of 8.10 and revenue of 5.31B. With a beat rate of 72%, will SMCI impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 3.51 and revenue of 2.18B.
Coupang (CPNG 📦)
Expected to post an EPS of -0.01 and revenue of 7.37B, Coupang has a mixed outlook. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.08 and revenue of 5.53B.
Sunrun (RUN ☀️)
The solar company is anticipated to report an EPS of -0.33 and revenue of 515.16M. With a beat rate of 50%, will Sunrun manage to impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 0.25 and revenue of 590.19M.
Redfin (RDFN 🏠)
Redfin is expected to deliver an EPS of -0.26 and revenue of 291.58M. Last year, they reported an EPS of -0.25 and revenue of 275.55M.
Shopify (SHOP 🛒)
The e-commerce platform is expected to report an EPS of 0.20 and revenue of 2.01B. With a beat rate of 58%, can Shopify exceed expectations? Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.14 and revenue of 1.69B.
Disney (DIS 🎥)
The entertainment giant is set to announce an EPS of 1.20 and revenue of 23.11B. Holding a beat rate of 77%, will Disney continue to enchant the market? Last year, they reported an EPS of 1.03 and revenue of 22.33B.
Lyft (LYFT 🚗)
Expected to post an EPS of 0.19 and revenue of 1.38B, Lyft has a beat rate of 80%. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.16 and revenue of 1.02B.
CVS Health (CVS 💊)
CVS is projected to deliver an EPS of 1.73 and revenue of 91.51B. With a beat rate of 88%, investors are keen to see if they can maintain their streak. Last year, they reported an EPS of 2.20 and revenue of 85.27B.
Monster Beverage (MNST 🥤)
The beverage company is expected to report an EPS of 0.45 and revenue of 2.01B. With a beat rate of 42%, will Monster impress the market? Last year, they delivered an EPS of 0.39 and revenue of 1.87B.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN 📡)
The telecom company is anticipated to report an EPS of -0.06 and revenue of 3.24B. Last year, they reported an EPS of 0.10 and revenue of 3.66B.
🔍 As these giants reveal their financial health, it's not just about the numbers but also the story they tell about the consumer market and economic trends. Keep your portfolios ready for any surprises!
#EarningsSeason #StockMarket #InvestmentInsights
SMCI: The Next Major Inflection Point! (D&W charts)On the daily chart, the stock experienced a notable downward breakout, moving sharply below a confluence of trendlines that had previously served as support. This breakout is significant as it suggests a strong bearish momentum, possibly indicating a shift in investor sentiment. The price is below the 21-day EMA, and there is no bottom signal on it yet.
In our previous public SMCI analysis, I warned you about this trend line, as a downwards breakout would frustrate any possibility of a bullish thesis, mid-term speaking. The link to our previous study, here on TradingView, is below this post.
Transitioning to the weekly chart provides a broader perspective, showing the stock's performance over a longer timeframe. Here, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level stands out as the next significant support level following the recent declines. This specific Fibonacci level is often watched by traders for potential reversal zones and could act as a strong area of interest for buying activities if prices were to reach this point.
The weekly chart also underscores a general downtrend after failing to maintain higher levels, which aligns with the bearish sentiment observed on the daily chart. The consistency of lower highs further emphasizes the pressure on the stock.
Overall, the convergence of these technical factors across different timeframes suggests that SMCI may face continued downward pressure in the near term, with crucial support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level possibly serving as a pivotal area for the stock's next directional moves.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
Long way to go from here
Current situation: SKILLING:US100 : NASDAQ:SMCI is currently at support level.
Potential scenario: If tomorrow's earnings do not meet expectations, the stock could drop to around $450 in a heartbeat.
Why?
1. The movement that started on 4.03.2024 appears to be an ABC correction, and the stock is currently in wave C of that correction.
2. In an ABC correction, the most common Fibonacci level for wave C is when
Wave C = Wave A = 1 = $446
3. Other indicators, such as MACD, are also indicating a downward trend as expected.
The WavesInvesting indicator is also pointing to the same level as the Fibonacci ratio for its lower channel line.
However, if the earnings turn out to be very good, we may see support at the current level.
Simple question for you: support or down the water slide we go?
SMCI four-hour chart shows confluence.NASDAQ:SMCI shows a bullish cup and handle on the four-hour chart, as well as a bullish Gartley harmonic. Point C of the harmonic lined up with the lower four-hour 100 linear regression channel and provided the best entry. The middle of the four-hour 100 linear regression channel coincided with the handle of the cup, as well as the weekly 20 SMA, which provided another excellent entry with more confirmation.