USDJPY (1h) sell updateEarlier this week we had this USDJPY sell setup where price perfectly pulled back into our entry price and even though it's been ranging the trade is now running in profit so if you did take this trade move the stop-loss to break-even (to the entry level) & watch it play out till it hits take profit or you can manually close the trade in profit.
Smctrading
The Ultimate Guide to Smart Money ReversalsLet’s cut to it. Most retail traders get caught chasing moves that were never meant for them. They’re entering late, reacting to structure breaks without context, or fading moves without understanding what’s really happening behind the price.
If you're trying to trade like smart money on the reversal, at the turn then you need to know when the game is flipping. That’s where the Market Structure Shift (MSS) comes in. But not just any MSS. I'm talking about MSS that follow a liquidity sweep and are driven by real displacementnot weak candles, not in consolidation. Real intent. Real shift.
Here’s how I approach it.
What Actually Counts as a Market Structure Shift?
Everyone talks about market structure higher highs, lower lows, etc. But structure breaks alone don’t mean anything. A valid MSS isn’t just about breaking a swing point. It’s why it broke and how it broke that matters.
I only consider a shift valid when three things are in place:
Liquidity has been taken (above a high or below a low).
The shift is caused by a displacement candle that clearly shows urgency.
The move happens with strength, not during chop or consolidation.
If you don’t have all three, it’s just noise.
Liquidity Comes First
Everything starts with a liquidity sweep. That’s the trap.
Price has to reach into a pool of liquidity usually above equal highs, clean swing highs, or below clean lows to grab those orders, and reject. That rejection is key. It shows smart money is offloading positions into retail breakouts or stop hunts.
Without a sweep, I don’t care what breaks. No liquidity = no reversal setup.
So the first thing I do is mark out obvious liquidity levels. Equal highs, equal lows, trendline touches anywhere retail is likely to have their stops sitting. That’s where the fuel is.
Then Comes Displacement
After the sweep, I want to see displacement a sharp, aggressive move in the opposite direction.
Not a weak pullback. Not a slow grind. A real candle that shows intent.
Displacement is always obvious. You’ll get a clean candle, often engulfing multiple others, that breaks structure and leaves behind an imbalance what we call a Fair Value Gap (FVG). That imbalance is the signature of smart money hitting the market hard enough to leave a gap in the order flow.
If the candle’s weak, or if it happens during consolidation, I skip it. Displacement is what separates real reversals from fakeouts.
Here is a clean example of what it should look like.
Confirming the Shift
Once displacement confirms intent, I check if it actually broke structure.
That means:
In an uptrend, I want to see price break a previous higher low after sweeping a high.
In a downtrend, I want price to break a lower high after sweeping a low.
When that happens, that’s your MSS. Price has grabbed liquidity, shown displacement, and broken a key point in the structure. At that point, we’ve got a confirmed shift in control.
Entries, Stops, and Targets
Here’s how I trade it.
After the MSS, I wait for price to pull back into the origin of the move. Usually, that’s going to be one of two things:
The Fair Value Gap (imbalance left by the displacement candle)
Or the MSS line itself (Shown on the example)
Once price comes back into that zone, that’s where I’m interested in getting in.
Stop loss always goes just above the high (for shorts) or below the low (for longs) of the displacement candle that caused the MSS. You’re giving it room to breathe, but keeping it tight enough to protect capital.
Targets are straightforward: go for the next pool of liquidity. That means swing lows (sell-side) if you’re short, or swing highs (buy-side) if you’re long. That’s where price is most likely to be drawn next.
A Clean Bearish Example
Let’s say price is trending up, putting in higher highs and higher lows. Then it takes out a recent swing high liquidity swept.
Immediately after that, a strong bearish candle drops and breaks the most recent higher low. That candle leaves an imbalance behind—perfect.
Now I’ve got:
✅ Liquidity sweep
✅ Displacement
✅ Break of structure
I mark out the FVG / MSS line, wait for price to retrace back into it, and enter the short. My stop goes above the displacement candle high. My target? The next clean swing low. That's the next spot where stops are resting where the market is drawn.
A Few Things to Watch Out For
This method works, but only if you’re strict about the rules.
Don’t take MSS setups in consolidation. Wait for clean, impulsive breaks.
If the shift happens without displacement or imbalance, skip it. It’s not clean.
Be realistic with stops. Tight is good, but don’t choke the trade. Give it the structure it needs.
The biggest mistake I see? Traders jump in too early trying to front-run the shift before displacement confirms it. Let the story unfold. Wait for the sweep. Wait for the candle that slaps the market and breaks structure. That’s your edge.
As shown here, the first "MSS" is invalid and not the A+ setup you're looking for.
Final Thoughts
Trading smart money reversals is about reading intent. You’re not just looking at price, you’re understanding why it moved the way it did.
When you combine a liquidity grab, displacement, and a break in structure, you're aligning with institutional activity. You're trading at the turn when smart money flips the script and leaves everyone else chasing.
This isn’t about trading every break. It’s about knowing which breaks matter.
Keep it clean. Stay patient. Follow the flow.
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Thanks for your support!
If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
USDJPY (1h) Potential SellAll major time frames indicate this pair will keep going down.
3 point confluences:
1. Created lower highs in both long term & short term tend failing to break the trendlines
2. We've just got a CHoCH (change in character)
3. Sell order block has formed after going sideways for a couple of days which means price is most likely to revisit it before exploding down.
Entry strategy:
Wait for a pullback into the recent sell order block then enter when the stochastics indicator is overbought to help give us a tighter stop-loss.
Alternatively you can set a sell-limit order on the entry price (green line)
Note: price could keep travelling down without doing a pullback
GoodLuck!
Week of 4/13/25: AUDUSD AnalysisDaily bias is bullish, prior week ended bullish with a V shape recovery showing that bulls are in control. As always our MTF internal structure dictates our immediate bias (bullish) and until it breaks, we're continuing our longs.
Price is reaching an important level at the extreme of the HTF supply level so once price gets there, it's good to see what happens next.
Major News: Unemployment Claims - Thursday
Ultimate Guide to Smart Money ConceptsWhat Are Smart Money Concepts?
Introduction:
If you’ve been trading for a while, you’ve probably noticed that sometimes the market moves in ways that just don’t make sense. You’ve got your technical analysis all set, but the market seems to go in the opposite direction. That’s where Smart Money Concepts (SMC) come in.
At its core, SMC is all about understanding how big players in the market (think hedge funds, institutions, and banks) move prices. These players have massive amounts of capital and information, and they don’t trade like the average retail trader. Understanding their behavior can help you see where the market is going next before it happens.
What is Smart Money?
In the world of trading, smart money refers to the institutional investors who move markets with their huge orders. Unlike retail traders, who might be relying on indicators or patterns, smart money trades based on liquidity, market structure, and order flow.
While retail traders are typically reacting to price movements, smart money is the one causing those moves. They’re out there seeking out places where they can accumulate positions or distribute them. The tricky part is that they’ll often make the market go in one direction just to trap retail traders and get them to take positions before flipping it back to where they wanted it to go in the first place.
Key Concepts in Smart Money Trading
1. Market Structure
Market structure refers to the way price moves in a trend. It’s essentially a pattern of higher highs and higher lows for an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows for a downtrend.
Smart money uses these patterns to their advantage. When they see the market creating a series of higher highs and higher lows, they’ll take advantage of that momentum to push prices further, knowing retail traders will follow along.
But when they want to reverse the market, they’ll push it in the opposite direction, creating a market structure shift or a break of structure, which signals that the trend is over and a new one is starting.
2. Liquidity
Liquidity refers to the amount of orders available to be filled at different price levels. Smart money knows exactly where retail traders are likely to place their stops or buy orders.
They’ll often push the price to these levels, triggering those stops and collecting the liquidity. Once that liquidity is grabbed, they’ll reverse the price and move it in the intended direction.
A common way to spot liquidity is by looking for equal highs or equal lows, where traders often place their stop-loss orders. These are often areas smart money will target.
3. Order Blocks
Order blocks are areas on the chart where institutions have placed big orders. These are key levels that represent where price might return to later, and they can act as areas of support or resistance.
Order blocks are usually found after big price moves. Institutions place these orders to either accumulate positions or offload them, and price often comes back to these levels to fill orders that were left behind.
4. Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
Fair value gaps, or imbalances, are price areas where the market moves quickly, leaving gaps between candlesticks. These gaps represent areas where the market has moved too fast for regular orders to fill, and price tends to return to these levels to fill the gaps.
Smart money knows that these imbalances are critical areas for future price action, and they’ll use them to re-enter the market after a move has been completed.
Why Does Smart Money Matter?
Understanding smart money concepts is like learning to think like an institution. Instead of chasing after price based on typical retail indicators, you start looking for the big moves that smart money is making. You begin to notice when the market is setting traps for retail traders, and how these large players accumulate positions before pushing price in a big way.
With SMC, you stop guessing and start anticipating. By looking for liquidity zones, order blocks, and market structure shifts, you can get in sync with the big players and follow their moves, not fight them.
Conclusion
Smart Money Concepts are all about shifting your perspective. Instead of thinking like a retail trader looking for quick breakouts, oversold/overbought conditions, or chasing trends — start looking at the market as the big players do. Pay attention to where the liquidity is, identify key order blocks, and use market structure shifts to guide your trades.
By learning to spot these key signs, you’ll stop being the one who’s trapped and start being the one who’s in sync with the smart money.
Ready to trade smarter? Keep an eye on those order blocks and liquidity zones — they’re where the real money is made.
Next Steps
- Start practicing by reviewing charts through the SMC lens.
- Keep refining your understanding of market structure, liquidity, and order blocks.
- Stay patient, smart money trades aren’t about quick wins, but about positioning yourself for big moves.
__________________________________________
Thanks for your support!
If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Potential Sell (1H Scalp)Here's my 3 point confluence analysis.. I could be wrong so any additional tips on the comments are welcomed
1. USDCAD was on a small uptrend until it broke the trendline then consolidated sideways.
2. After breaking the trendline a reversal pin bar has formed indicating a downward but this wasn't enough to support the idea
3. after a sell order block formed followed by two FVG I'm confident that it set to move the previous low or to the discount area.
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Entry strategy (Enter on Pullback)
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Since the stochastics indicator on the hourly is showing it is oversold my TRADE ENTRY is a pull back into the red oderblock & wait for stochastic indicator to be overbought to enter or a rejection of the orderblock
note: the trade could just keep going down without doing a pullback
WEEK OF 4/6/25: EURUSD AnalysisLast week ended bullish for the pair, but there is a correction occuring at the moment so we will follow the MTF internal structure (bearish) until it reaches the daily and 4h POI to look for bullish price action.
Internal MTF structure is always king and we will need that to shift before looking for longs.
Major news: Inflation - Thursday
Thanks for stopping by and goodluck!
EURGBP Market Structure Analysis on 4 Hour Timeframe4H swing is bullish => current is pullback
M15 swing is bearish.
Currently giving CHoCH reversal signal.
We can look for buying opportunities in this area.
More carefully, we wait for the price to break the top to confirm the 15-minute reversal frame.
GOOGL - Elliott Wave Final ShowdownGOOGL has dropped over 27.28% , reaching a minor profit-booking zone. The $150 level serves as a key demand zone, where a potential price reversal could occur. The formation is either expanded flat or a running flat on the daily timeframe chart.
Confirmation is best observed near the lower trendline of the parallel channel. If bearish momentum persists, prices may decline further to the $142-$140 range before a strong rebound. Once the correction ends, the upside targets are $168, $180, and $195.
A new low will form if the previous low is breached. Further research will be uploaded soon.
ES1 2025-03-31 SPOOZ 15minOBHello everyone, I hope you won, stayed out, or learned something form the market today 😂.
Today was a easy grab.
Drawdown: 17. Tics
TP: 111. Tics Grabbed (out of 438)
Spooz Open Manipulation,
Broke near high,
Retraced to 15min Order Block,
TP Hit at 3 equal Highs (volume).
If you found this inciteful, join our group discussion! (link in bio)
Week of 3/30/25: EURUSD Weekly AnalysisEURUSD has healthy price action with the MTF switching to bullish, once MTF aligns with the daily, we're definitely good to go on longs. For now waiting for price action to show us that it wants to move higher.
Major news: NFP Friday
Thanks for coming, goodluck this week with your trades!
Week of 3/30/25: AUDUSD Weekly AnalysisWeekly analysis this week, price has been congesting and tightening the last 2 weeks, expecting hopefully a good move this week to breakout of consolidation.
Starting the week with a bearish bias.
Major News: NFP Friday
Thanks for stopping by, have a great trading week!
USDJPY Trending Lower - Will It Drop To 145.200?OANDA:USDJPY is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating a strong bearish structure. The price has broken below a key support zone and may now pull back for a potential retest. This level previously acted as support and could now serve as resistance, aligning with a possible bearish continuation.
If sellers confirm resistance at this zone, the price is likely to move downward toward the 145.200 target. However, a failure to reject this level could indicate a potential shift in momentum.
Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the resistance zone, or increased selling volume, before considering short positions.
Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
CADCHF Approaching Key Support – Rebound Toward 0.61890?OANDA:CADCHF is approaching a key support zone, marked by strong buying pressure. This area has historically served as a demand zone, suggesting the potential for a bullish reversal if buyers step in.
The current market structure indicates that if the price confirms a rejection from this support zone, there is a high probability of an upward move. I anticipate that if buyers defend this level, the market may head higher toward the 0.61890 target, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. However, a break below this support would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines.
If you have any thoughts on this setup or see an alternative perspective, feel free to comment!
GOLD at Key Resistance: Possible Correction AheadOANDA:XAUUSD has reached a critical resistance zone. This zone has previously acted as a barrier for price, leading to strong reversals in the past. This area aligns with a significant supply zone, where the ongoing bullish momentum may face exhaustion, signaling a potential turning point.
If the price shows bearish confirmation, such as rejection candles or a bearish engulfing pattern, I expect a pullback toward the 2733.000 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. This scenario reflects the potential for a short-term correction within the broader trend.
If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!