Bitcoin - Power of 3 in play!The chart illustrates a classic application of the ICT concept known as the "Power of 3," a theory that outlines a common market behavior pattern consisting of three phases: consolidation, manipulation, and distribution. This model is often used by smart money traders to identify points where institutional players may be accumulating or offloading positions, typically by targeting retail liquidity.
Consolidation
In this scenario, Bitcoin has exhibited a prolonged period of consolidation, where price fluctuated within a defined range throughout most of June and into early July. This range-bound movement, highlighted in blue, represents the market gathering orders from both buyers and sellers, creating a liquidity pool on either side of the range. During this phase, market participants become uncertain about the next direction, while smart money positions itself for the next move.
Manipulation/sweeping liquidity
Recently, Bitcoin has broken out of this consolidation range in an upward move, which is now being interpreted as the manipulation phase. This move served to sweep the liquidity resting just above the established highs of the range. These highs were prime areas for stop-losses of short sellers and breakout entries of longs, making them attractive targets for institutional manipulation. The price push above this level, marked in green, appears to be a false breakout designed to trap breakout traders and trigger stops before a likely reversal.
Possible distribution phase
Following this manipulation phase, the chart suggests we are entering or have just begun the distribution phase, marked in red. Distribution in the context of the Power of 3 refers to the process where smart money offloads their positions onto unsuspecting buyers who entered during the manipulation. The anticipated outcome is a sustained move to the downside, aligning with the forecasted bearish structure shown on the right side of the chart.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the chart reflects a textbook ICT Power of 3 pattern in play on Bitcoin. After a lengthy period of sideways consolidation that built liquidity on both sides, Bitcoin executed an upward manipulation to capture liquidity above the range. Now, with the highs swept and buy-side liquidity taken, the market looks poised for distribution, signaling a probable downward move in the near term. Traders familiar with smart money concepts would view this as a high-probability reversal zone.
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Smctrading
Bitcoin - Last move down, ready for ATH?Bitcoin is showing clear signs of a corrective move within a broader bullish structure. After forming a second consecutive lower high, price is now pressing downward, creating space for a potential liquidity grab and discount entry. Despite this short-term weakness, the macro narrative remains intact. The all-time high remains untapped above, holding a thick layer of liquidity that the market has yet to collect.
Liquidity and Fib Confluence
There is a visible equal low structure around the 107.8k area. This is a prime zone for a sweep, where smart money is likely to trigger sell stops before reversing. Below that lies a Fair Value Gap (FVG) extending into the 106.5k range. Within this same zone, we also have strong Fibonacci confluence, especially at the 0.786 level near 106.2k. This makes it a high-probability entry area if price delivers a clean displacement after the sweep.
Short-Term Bearish, Long-Term Bullish
The market is respecting a trendline drawn across the lower highs, giving the impression of sustained bearish control. However, this is likely a trap. Once the sell-side liquidity below the 107.8k low is taken and the imbalance around 106.5k is filled, price will be primed for a reversal. The true target lies much higher, with the all-time high around 110.5k as the main magnet.
FVG Fill and Reversal Mechanics
This entire drop is likely engineered to fill inefficiencies left behind earlier in the move up. The FVG acts not only as a magnet, but also a springboard for the next leg. Expecting price to show a reaction at the 0.786 level, where the order flow could shift and confirm a bullish reversal, is key here. Ideally, we see a clean sweep, a displacement, and a reclaim of previous structure before targeting higher levels.
Projection and Trade Setup
The anticipated sequence is a sweep of 107.8k, fill of the gap and fib zone down to 106.2k, then a potential reversal structure forming. If that structure confirms, the next major move should aim for the untouched all-time highs, where significant liquidity remains resting. Traders should remain patient and let the sweep and confirmation unfold before entering.
Conclusion
We are watching a classic setup where engineered downside movement is likely to create the conditions for a powerful reversal. As long as price respects the 106k zone and gives a strong reaction, the path toward the ATH remains wide open.
___________________________________
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EURJPY LONG IDEAI have been waiting for this EURJPY long setup to form for the past 2 trading sessions.
This morning I saw this beautiful bullish swing low formed and that is my entry signal for to take a long trade on EURJPY.
REASONS:
EURJPY is super bullish right now.
The Daily and 4Hour time frame trend is extremely bullish. So, am only looking to take a long buy to follow the trend direction.
How to Trade Liquidity Sweep in Forex Market (SMC Trading)
I will show you a real example of trading liquidity sweep with Smart Money Concepts.
You will learn the essential SMC liquidity basics, a simple and profitable strategy to identify and trade liquidity sweep.
I will share with you an accurate entry confirmation signal that works perfectly on any Forex pair.
Liquidity Basics
In order to trade liquidity sweeps profitably, you should learn to identify significant liquidity zones.
To spot them, analyze a historic price action and find clusters of important historic key levels.
Examine a price action on EURUSD on an hourly time frame.
I underlined multiple horizontal key levels.
The price respected each level, found support on them, and rebounded.
What is so specific about these levels is that they are lying close to each other, composing a liquidity cluster.
That fact that EURUSD strongly bounced from these levels suggests that buying interest and high buying volumes were concentrated around them.
We can unite these levels and treat them as a single demand zone that has just been broken and turned into a supply zone.
After we found a valid liquidity zone, we can look for a liquidity sweep.
First, we should let the price approach that area and look for a specific price behavior then.
That is a perfect example of a liquidity sweep.
You can see that the price formed a wide range candle with a long tail.
Its high went way beyond the underlined area, but its body closed within.
In order to understand, why a liquidity sweep occurred, let's zoom in our chart and try to understand a behavior of the market participants.
Our supply zone concentrated selling orders , we assume that sellers were placing their orders across its entire length.
Their stop losses were presumably lying above that area.
Smart Money know that and with a liquidity sweep they manipulate the market, making sellers close their positions in a loss (buying back their positions from the market) and providing a liquidity for big players.
After a formation of a such a candlestick, a reliable confirmation of a saturation of the Smart Money is a formation of a strong bearish candle - a clear sign of strength of the sellers.
A bearish engulfing candle above confirmed a completion of a liquidity sweep and indicates a highly probable bearish continuation.
Your perfect sell entry is immediately after a close of such a candlestick.
Stop loss should strictly lie above the high of a liquidity sweep.
Take profit is based on a local low.
Look, how quickly the price reached the goal.
Your strategy of trading liquidity sweeps of demand zones is absolutely the same.
Let the price test a demand zone, wait for a formation of wide range bearish candle with a tail going below its lows.
Wait for a bullish imbalance candle and buy immediately then.
Stop loss will be below the low of a liquidity sweep, take profit - a local high.
This SMC strategy works on any time frame and can be applied for trading any Forex pair, Gold, Silver, Crypto and commodities.
Try it by your own and let me know your results.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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USDJPY Poised for Liquidity Grab Ahead of NFP USDJPY is currently undergoing a clear redistribution phase on the 4H chart, having recently broken bullish structure and formed successive lower highs. The first week of July is packed with high-impact economic events from both the US and Japan – most notably speeches from Fed Chair Powell and BOJ Governor Ueda, alongside ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls – all of which could trigger significant volatility and a potential liquidity sweep before a true directional move takes shape.
🎯 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Flow Analysis
✅ A Break of Structure (BOS) has just occurred following a sharp selloff from the 147.8 supply zone – a bearish structure is now clearly established.
⚠️ Change of Character (ChoCH) near the 145.8 level signals potential institutional involvement and short-term redistribution.
💧 Equal Lows (EQL) around 143.0 and 142.2 suggest prime liquidity targets likely to be swept before any genuine bullish intent emerges.
📈 Price is currently retracing toward the 145.85 – 146.00 short-term supply zone, offering a favourable area for short setups if rejection occurs.
🧠 Trade Scenarios (Planned)
🔻 Priority SELL Setups
SELL at 145.851 – 146.000
SL: 146.351
TP1: 145.351 (+50 pips)
TP2: 144.851 (+100 pips)
TP3: 143.851 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
This is a fresh supply zone formed post-BOS, ideal for potential short entries upon confirmation.
SELL at 147.750 – 147.950
SL: 148.150
TP1: 147.250 (+50 pips)
TP2: 146.750 (+100 pips)
TP3: 145.750 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
A key higher timeframe supply zone. If price breaks above 146.3 and rallies further, this is where Smart Money may re-enter shorts.
🔺 Potential BUY Setups Post-Liquidity Sweep
BUY at 143.031 – 142.930
SL: 142.731
TP1: 143.531 (+50 pips)
TP2: 144.031 (+100 pips)
TP3: 145.031 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
This zone aligns with the trendline and EQL – a possible bounce zone if bullish BOS or strong price rejection appears.
BUY at 142.200 – 142.000
SL: 141.800
TP1: 142.700 (+50 pips)
TP2: 143.200 (+100 pips)
TP3: 144.200 (+200 pips)
TP4: Open
A deeper liquidity pool – likely an institutional entry point if price is flushed prior to NFP data.
📅 Key Upcoming Events – USD/JPY Traders Beware
Tuesday (1 July):
🗣️ Speeches from BOJ Gov Ueda and Fed Chair Powell – high-impact catalysts early in the week.
🧾 ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings – insight into the US economy’s momentum.
Wednesday to Thursday (2–3 July):
💼 ADP Employment & Non-Farm Payrolls – major market-moving data to shape USD sentiment.
→ Given the heavy news calendar, it's wise to react to price action at key zones with strong risk management, rather than pre-empt.
Bitcoin– bearish momentum builds after rejection at $109KIntroduction
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing weakness after forming a lower high at $109,000. This level acted as a significant point of rejection, and since then, BTC has been moving lower. The price has broken through key support areas, indicating a possible shift in market structure. In this analysis, we’ll break down the recent price action, explain the technical signals behind the move, and discuss what could be expected in the short term.
Rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci Level
The rejection at the $109,000 level aligns perfectly with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement on the 4-hour timeframe. This level is often seen as a strong resistance point during corrective moves, and in this case, it held firmly. The precision of this rejection gives it more weight, and since hitting that point, BTC has been steadily declining. This move down suggests that buyers were unable to push through the resistance, leading to increased selling pressure.
Break of the 4H Bullish FVG
As BTC started its decline from $109,000, it broke through the bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) that had formed earlier on the 4-hour chart. This gap previously served as a support zone but has now been decisively broken with strong volume. The loss of this level is significant, as it marks a breakdown of the bullish structure and opens the door for further downside movement. In the process of this move lower, BTC has created a new bearish FVG on the 4-hour timeframe. This gap remains open and could potentially act as a magnet for price to revisit, offering a possible short entry if price retraces into that zone. However, the clear break below the previous bullish FVG indicates a shift in momentum and supports a more bearish bias for now.
Downside Target at $102.7K
Given the recent breakdown, the next key level to watch is around $102,700. This area marks the wick low on the 4-hour timeframe and stands out due to the size and sharpness of the wick. Such large wicks often leave behind unfilled orders, which markets tend to revisit over time. The presence of these resting orders makes this level a likely target for the ongoing move down. It also acts as a strong area of potential support, where buyers might step back in if the price reaches that point.
Conclusion
With the rejection from the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the failure to hold the bullish 4H FVG, BTC has shown clear signs of weakness. The breakdown in structure suggests a continuation to the downside is likely, with $102.7k being the most immediate target. This level could serve as a strong support zone due to the unfilled orders left behind by the previous wick. Until BTC reclaims key support levels or shows a shift in momentum, the bias remains bearish in the short term, and traders should remain cautious while expecting further downside.
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DXY: US dollar To Drop Further Around 95?The US dollar has been steadily declining since the new president was elected in the USA. This decline has been accompanied by the ongoing trade wars. Numerous economic indicators have supported this trend, and we anticipate further depreciation in the coming days or weeks. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own analysis and gain a comprehensive understanding of the market.
We wish you the best of success in trading. Good luck and trade safely.
Like and comment for more, and as always, happy trading!
Team Setupsfx_
SOLUSDT // 15M // LONGPrice tapped into a previous support zone which is now acting as support & resistance flip, showing early signs of a bullish structure shift.
Just below, a clearly defined Bullish Order Block between ~151.00 and 152.20 is providing institutional demand, which strengthens this zone further.
The current entry sits slightly above this confluence, giving a high-probability long setup.
📈 Expected Price Path: Anticipating a possible liquidity grab, internal pullback inside the grey box, followed by continuation toward target liquidity around 156.00+.
🔹 Entry: 153.23 (Market Execution)
🎯 Take Profit (TP): 156.02
🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 152.22
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): ~1:2.53
XAUUSD: +1500 TO +2200 PIPS Major Swing Move in Making, Two AreaThe first day of the trading week has seen Gold skyrocket, clearly indicating a bullish price direction. Our recent analyses had clearly shown this, and the volume confirms further bullish momentum. Additionally, the NFP news this Friday will be a trend changer, regardless of its positive or negative impact on the USD.
There are two potential take-profit targets. Before taking entry, please conduct your own analysis.
Good luck and trade safely,
Team Setupsfx_
EURJPY Tapped 4H Supply – Massive Drop Loading?EURJPY | 30-Min View with 4H CRT Zones
🔥 This is where Smart Money sharpens their blades…
🧊 New Confluence Just Dropped:
🔴 CRT 4H High Zone: 165.108–165.475
Price wicked right into the 4H Compression Reversal Top (CRT) — ideal Smart Money trap zone
This area aligns perfectly with the bearish OB/supply from previous screenshot
🔵 CRT 4H Low Zone: Around 164.630
Strong structure level where liquidity is sitting
Price respected it as temporary support before likely break-and-retest continuation
🔍 Price Action Logic:
✅ Price faked out above CRT 4H High, grabbing liquidity
✅ Immediate rejection candle with wick rejection signals institutional selling
🔁 Now price is retesting the mid-OB / lower CRT, likely forming a breaker pattern
🟥 Huge clean imbalance to the downside — marked by that juicy green TP box
🔽 Expectation: price fills inefficiency and heads to 163.378 minimum
🎯 Trade Parameters:
🔻 Entry Zone 165.100 – 165.397 (Red Supply / CRT High)
🛡 SL Above 165.475 (CRT 4H High)
🎯 TP Target 163.378 (bottom imbalance fill)
⚖️ RRR Over 1:4 potential — high precision entry zone
🧠 Chart Ninja Analysis:
“When CRT zones align with OBs and liquidity sweeps,
that’s a Smart Money feast waiting to happen.” – 🥷
This chart is a classic reversal blueprint. If you missed the first tap — wait for the retest. If this holds below CRT Low (164.630), expect full bearish momentum into midweek.
📊 Confirmation Tactics:
🔄 M15 bearish engulfing / shift in structure after tap into CRT
🔻 Break of 164.630 = confirmation of bearish intent
⏳ Optional: use FVG + volume spike as further entry triggers
🚨 Save this chart — it's one of those sniper moments where everything aligns!
EURJPY Supply Tap! Bearish Reaction Coming?EURJPY (30-Min) | Supply Zone Hit + Bearish Reversal Setup
This EURJPY move is brewing into a classic SMC bearish play — engineered liquidity run, supply zone reaction, and a projected melt to imbalance below. Let’s dissect the ninja logic 🧠📉
🔍 Breakdown of the Setup:
🟥 Supply / Order Block Zone
Price enters a strong bearish OB zone between 165.100–165.397
Previous rejection wicks in this zone = smart money sell interest
Price now testing that area again — potential for liquidity sweep + reversal
🟪 Multi-Zone Confluence
Multiple overlapping zones stacked: OB, mitigation block, and liquidity sweep area
Perfect spot for Smart Money to unload positions before sending price lower
📏 Risk-Reward Optimization
Entry near 165.100–165.397 zone
Stop Loss placed slightly above the last rejection wick (above 165.397)
Take Profit projected around 163.378 based on measured impulse leg and imbalance fill
🧠 Liquidity Narrative
The rally into supply is likely a buy-side liquidity hunt
Smart Money often drives price into key zones before triggering reversals
Price may wick above 165.171 to fake bulls before a strong sell-off
🧠 Chart Ninja Entry Plan:
🔻 Entry Zone 165.100 – 165.397 (Supply OB)
🛡 SL Above 165.450 (above wick / last structure high)
🎯 TP Target 163.378 (imbalanced fill target)
⚖️ RRR Approx. 1:4+ depending on entry precision
🥷 Chart Ninja Note:
“The trap is always set where the crowd feels the safest —
and that’s exactly where the ninja strikes.” 🥷📉
This setup could be a clean ride down if price reacts as expected. Confirmation entry = bearish engulfing on M15 or M30.
🔁 Bonus Observation:
You can see lower timeframes building internal liquidity, meaning we might get a sharp, volatile drop once that top wick finishes sweeping.
📍Mark this zone and set an alert — entry can trigger fast!
🔥 What’s your confirmation style — engulfing candle or breaker structure?
Week of 6/8/25: EU AnalysisPrice has reached the extreme of daily bearish structure and we can see a rejection of the 4h latest push to make another high. We're following 1h internal bearish structure to at least take out the weak low, thus making 1h structure bearish and following that to the 4h extreme swing low.
Major news:
Core CPI - Wednesday