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Smellypipijourney

KWEB/VTI WHERE EAST MEETS WEST Hey guys, Thank you for organizing this interesting competition. If anyone is interested ! Join in the fun Thanks for checking out my thesis and hope you guys enjoy it. ========================================== Basically, i will be doing a TOP-DOWN analysis approach for my thesis between the two major economies. We will be looking at simple macro and very logically comparison. After which, i will break down the chart into different sections with Momentum theory as the base and other confluence elements as supporting. We will trade what we see on the chart. Nothing speculative. ===================Macro======================= Macro $VTI - High inflationary environment / rate hikes / quantitative tightening / bull run for the last 2 years / stocks overvalued / might be looking at negative GDP + inflation = stagflation = risk off for stocks $KWEB - Moderate inflationary environment / quantitative easing / correction for the last 2 years / low PE ratio / stocks undervalued ===================Technical analysis ======================= Technical analysis 1) Falling wedge formation The initial momentum was very strong and diminish over time towards the end before breaking out. This shows that the momentum had extinguished and will be looking for a trend reversal. As seen on the break out and retest. 2) The price broke out from the 1 year downward trend line and did a retest / rejected with a engulfing candle forming the left shoulder and head of the inverse head and shoulders. We are no longer making lower lows. 3) As seen on the Momentum theory indicator, the bearish momentum had bottomed out and broke out from the neckline. An emerging bull momentum might emerge once the price action had proven its strength. Momentum will above 0 and will commence its run. 4) We are looking at a potential inverse head and shoulder or cup and handle formations. Both are bullish price action and trend reversal formation. This can be confirmed over the next 1-2 months after the right shoulder / or handle is formed. Based on point 1,2 & 3. We can established that the $KWEB had ended its bear run / rejected the bottom. And once the right shoulder formed and price moved above the major support & resistance area and 200 moving average. A bull trend will emerge. ===================Entry======================= Entry. A multi confluence entry would enhance the confidence, increases the probability of success. Depending on risk appetite, we have listed two possible entry scenario. Both scenarios have great risk to rewards ratio. Entry 1 - Right shoulder or handle formed - Price goes above major support and resistance neckline - The 50/200 moving average golden cross = this will be the entry trigger. Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders - Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross Entry 2 - 30% position on bull flag of the cup and handle / or right shoulder formed - 30% position on breakout of cup and handle / breakout of the major support & resistance neckline - 40% position once 50/200 moving average golden cross - Stop loss can be % of your capital or the low of the inverse head and shoulders - Exit will be either your preferred target % or ride with trailing moving average i.e 50/200 moving average death cross =====================END===================== Thank you for your time and hope you enjoyed my analysis. Trade safe and always manage your risk ! " When you genuinely accept the risks, you will be at peace with any outcome. - Mark Douglas "
Editors' picks
AMEX:KWEBLong
by nexxtrade
30
WATCH INDIA & XIAOMI $1810 Smartphone market in India - statistics & facts India will over take China and emerge as the largest population in the projected year 2100. Rising disposable income, cheaper internet, and the need to always stay connected are some of the factors that have led the Indian smartphone market to grow into one of the largest smartphone markets in the world. And with the entire nation glued to mobile phones ( like any other countries in the world ) It is undeniable that we cannot live without mobile devices. India will also emerge as one of the high growth economics moving forward. However, compared to other markets across the globe, India’s smartphone penetration rate is still relatively low. The demand for smartphones is likely to grow in the future as a considerable share of the population did not own a phone or were planning to switch from a feature phone to a smartphone. - 35% has no mobile phones & 45% owns mobile phones but not a smartphone. India has a huge potential uncovered market for mobile devices and home appliances for these 75% population whereby these two sectors will lead and grow as the fastest growing online products as the India develop. For your info, Xiaomi was one of the leading market shareholders in the Indian smartphone market. It sold phones under the brand names Mi, Redmi, and POCO. So technically, it should be on the number 1 spot. Not sure if you are aware, Xiaomi is undercutting the entire tech industry ( Mobile deceives & home appliances ) which covers the two sectors mentioned above that will lead and grow as the fastest online products Hope you enjoy my thesis and analysis on the fundamental. * not financial advice * my own analysis * pictures credit Statista Link to the technical as below. Cheers!
HKEX:1810Long
by nexxtrade
What can you learn from Journey to the westALOT ! Have you ever came across “Journey to the west”. Journey to the West is a Chinese novel published in the 16th century during the Ming dynasty and attributed to Wu Cheng'en. It is regarded as one of the Four Great Classical Novels of Chinese literature, and has been described as arguably the most popular literary work in East Asia Short summary: The plot revolves around Buddhist monk Xuanzang, who travels west to India with his four disciples, including the famous monkey king Sun Wukong, in search for holy scriptures. The other protagonists are the half-pig and half-monk Zhu Bajie and the water monster Sha Wujing. Everyone’s interpretation of the story is different which makes this more interesting. I would like to use this classic novel to illustrate one’s journey to peak trading performance aka = becoming rich, financial freedom or whatever goals you wanted out from trading. And in the novel’s context is to obtain the holy scriptures. =============================================== Character Tripitaka aka Tang Sanzang ( also refers to YOU the trader ) His goal is to obtain the holy scriptures ( monetary goals / your financial freedom ). But as a monk, he is unskilled unlike his disciplines who can fight demons except he is the leader of the group. He has a clear goal but he will face many obstacles ahead. His job is to gather help & transform his disciplines ( your emotions / flaws ) leverage their skills and expertise to obtain the holy scriptures. Sun Wukong or Monkey God ( your lack of patience / arrogance / fear of not being right ) Sun Wukong is the eldest disciple and the most skilful. He knows 72 transformation (can transform into many forms) He can create great damages when he is angry, like someone with anger management issues Sun work fast and act fast based on his own instinct and doesn't have much regards for SOPs ( trading plans). He is impatience, arrogance and often get into trouble and the needs to be right. ( early entry / refuses to cut loss / turn small loss into big loss just because of the need to be right ) Zhu Bajie or Pigsy ( your greed / fear of missing out / your laziness to seek to continuous learning) Pigsy is 2nd in command and is not as skilled as Sun. As he is half pig, half human and he is often distracted by greed, food, lust and laziness among other things. His greediness and fear of missing out often hinder the team’s progress during the journey. He is always tempted by temporary rewards and lust along the way, often not looking at bigger picture. ( short term profit taking and missed out the bigger trend, FOMO into something you did not do any research or know about and trade what the gurus / finwits are telling you without knowing their motivation, entry or exit ). You are simply too lazy to do your own research. Sha Wujing or Sandy ( not taking calculated risk / lack of confidence / fear of leaving money on the table / not sticking to the rules ) Sandy is the character in the story who doesn't talk a lot, carries the team's luggage and he would only speak when he needs to and mostly tells the truth about the situation. He is very timid and often sway by the opinion of others’ influence ( finwits / news / rumours / earnings ). He will follow suit ( close position / take pre-mature profit ) based on other’s opinion. He seems like one who doesn’t take risk and lack of confidence. ( your lack of research and back-tests leads to your low confidence to take trades when the signal appear and often missed out the entire trend!) The worst feeling in the world is knowing what is going to happen next but didn’t do anything about it. =============================================== Throughout the journey, these are the issued faced by all the Tripitaka aka Tang Sanzang’s and his job ( your job as a trader ) is to evaluate each disciplines' flaws ( your emotions and flaws ), correct them and create a harmonious flow of team work between one another. And I quote “ If you define the problem correctly, you almost have the solution.” – Steve Jobs Of course, they eventually obtained the holy scriptures. I think the bigger take away was never the holy scriptures. It was to find yourself and to be the best you can be. So is to trading. Many successful traders started out by wanting to be rich ( whatever goals ). Then they realized the true meaning of GOALS. GOALS = The process is more rewarding than the PRIZE. I wish you best and hope you enjoy my sharing.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by nexxtrade
2
WHAT IF YOU COULD TURN BACK TIME? Everyone makes mistakes. Break rules. Not being discipline. Fight the trend. And the list goes on. And sometimes you wish you could turn back time and "RETRADE" again. But that's not gonna happen. What if you REALLY could turn back time? What are the thing you would have done differently? I just want to share this counter-intuitive theory. In order to win, you must lose first. " I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty-six times I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed. " - Michael Jordan And if you want something you never had, you must be willing to do something you have never done Here are the major indexes 6 months performance: SPX -19% DOW -13.9% NASDAQ -27% TAIEX -14.90% DAX -16.7.88% CRYPTO TOTAL MARKET -60% SOX -33.5% -What did you observed ? -What would you do if you could turn back time? -Would you do anything different? -Would you have gone long knowing that it might due for a (major) correction? Below a compilation of the BIG CAP stocks that the proprietary Momentum Theory Indicator indicating bearish momentum divergence prior the corrections. They said prevention is better than cure. Do you agree ? Embrace your mistakes! Do not be afraid to make mistakes! Mistakes are proof that you are trying.
SP:SPXEducation
by nexxtrade